IGN's Xbox2 predictions
- Thread starter doncale
- Start date
How quickly we forget the past...
When Xbox first came on the scene, it was pretty much a huge joke to the industry. It's size was mocked to no end, it's exclusives from most 3rd parties were laughable token offerings (Mad Dash, Kabuki Warriors, and Cel Damage, awright!), most games were not ported to it and even when they were, they were a few months behind the PS2 version. Despite all of this, Xbox saw through those roadblocks and is now a very well-regarded console that gets ports day and date with any other version (plus they usually sell much better on Xbox proportional to installed base). It doesn't get too much by way of exclusives, but that's because it started at so much of a handicap, and publishers understandably will go with the leader.
The situation is much different than it was last gen, Xenon will (barring some unforseen disaster) at very least keep very close pace with PS3, if not go ahead. One surefire way to put them ahead is a launch during the holidays with no competition, and oh lookit that, that's exactly what's probably going to happen. A new major console launch at Xmas is an absolute surefire ticket to success, they'll easily sell as many Xenons (and thusly start that many units ahead of the competition) as they can produce in that period. As a result of those good numbers, they'll net some exclusives from some fence-sitting devs, and maybe even win over a few notable Japanese exclusives, considering that they're trying to play to the US market more lately.
This ball will continue rolling, and Sony may very well be caught with their pants down, expecting Xenon to not be that much of a threat. I certainly think that's going to be the case with the PS3 specs, they may eke out a little more power than Xenon but the difference will not be very noticable; Sony's not going to put out a money-losing monster of a system (like the first Xbox) when they're as comfortably ahead as they are, and with the PSP losing a bunch of money on every unit, they're not going to risk having money vortexes going on both fronts.
When Xbox first came on the scene, it was pretty much a huge joke to the industry. It's size was mocked to no end, it's exclusives from most 3rd parties were laughable token offerings (Mad Dash, Kabuki Warriors, and Cel Damage, awright!), most games were not ported to it and even when they were, they were a few months behind the PS2 version. Despite all of this, Xbox saw through those roadblocks and is now a very well-regarded console that gets ports day and date with any other version (plus they usually sell much better on Xbox proportional to installed base). It doesn't get too much by way of exclusives, but that's because it started at so much of a handicap, and publishers understandably will go with the leader.
The situation is much different than it was last gen, Xenon will (barring some unforseen disaster) at very least keep very close pace with PS3, if not go ahead. One surefire way to put them ahead is a launch during the holidays with no competition, and oh lookit that, that's exactly what's probably going to happen. A new major console launch at Xmas is an absolute surefire ticket to success, they'll easily sell as many Xenons (and thusly start that many units ahead of the competition) as they can produce in that period. As a result of those good numbers, they'll net some exclusives from some fence-sitting devs, and maybe even win over a few notable Japanese exclusives, considering that they're trying to play to the US market more lately.
This ball will continue rolling, and Sony may very well be caught with their pants down, expecting Xenon to not be that much of a threat. I certainly think that's going to be the case with the PS3 specs, they may eke out a little more power than Xenon but the difference will not be very noticable; Sony's not going to put out a money-losing monster of a system (like the first Xbox) when they're as comfortably ahead as they are, and with the PSP losing a bunch of money on every unit, they're not going to risk having money vortexes going on both fronts.
By christmas the production problems with the slim ps2 and the psp will be resolved.
The Xenon will still be supply-limited, so while it will be in heavy demand, it will be largely unavailable to the mass-market through the spring of '06
The PSP will be the the holiday gift of '05.
The Xenon will still be supply-limited, so while it will be in heavy demand, it will be largely unavailable to the mass-market through the spring of '06
The PSP will be the the holiday gift of '05.
I predict:
1. One console will come out first.
2. Another will come out second.
3. One will be come out last.
I then predict:
1. One console will sell better than the other two.
Finally I predict:
1. People will choose sides.
I have spoken.
1. One console will come out first.
2. Another will come out second.
3. One will be come out last.
I then predict:
1. One console will sell better than the other two.
Finally I predict:
1. People will choose sides.
I have spoken.
Well, America being the dominant market now, it's success will spill over to Japan to some degree. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it will get close to dethroning Sony over there, but it'll put up a much better showing, especially with those afforementioned Japanese exclusives made with the US market in mind. I think it could pull around 25% market share over there if MS plays their cards right.callous said:
kitchenmotors
Banned
Shig said:
25%? I highly doubt that, especially with both Nintendo and Sony having both a handheld and console in the market. More like 5%, if they're really lucky. Nintendo and Sony own that market, and I doubt anything will change soon.
Well then considering those tastes are so congruent with that of the American majority, I guess stick a fork in Xenon. Having the first next-gen Madden and a new Halo fix will get them nowhere against the JRPG/shmup contingency who are obviously calling the shots in the American market, doom doom doom.The End said:
25% of the console market, I meant.kitchenmotors said:
boutrosinit said:
Some of the other ridiculous quotes aside (like xbox2 being more important in Japan than PS3 right now), I think this is a dangerous statement to make. Granted, Sony experienced similar levels of growth with their two systems, but keep in mind that Sony was also growing the market. I don't really see Microsoft doing that, rather, Microsoft is merely taking aim at the same audience that already buys Sony's product. Because of this, I really don't see them experiencing the same growth next generation as they experienced this generation. Their best hope is to "steal" marketshare away from Sony, not to increase the size of the market as a whole. This, of course, will really slow down their growth because, from a marketing perspective, it's much harder to get someone to "switch" brands than to adopt a new one altogether.
Of All Trades
Member
Pffft. Everyone knows that first is worst, while second is best (and third's mom says that third is cool). Your crystal ball is worthless!DarienA said:
kitchenmotors
Banned
Redbeard said:
No, what we need is a sequel to Tao Feng: Fist of the Lotus!
I expect alot of "wait for the PS3" hype from Sony come xbox 2 launch. I predict that it will be entertaining to watch this whole thing play out.
I also have a question:
Is this more than purely uninformed speculation? IIRC, Molyneux said he was "reassigning" all of the B.C. staff to other projects. How does that translate into moving B.C. to xbox 2? Unlesss Molyneux was just saying that as a rouse...
I also have a question:
Is this more than purely uninformed speculation? IIRC, Molyneux said he was "reassigning" all of the B.C. staff to other projects. How does that translate into moving B.C. to xbox 2? Unlesss Molyneux was just saying that as a rouse...
TheTurtleTitan
Member
Microsoft: OK, Square-Enix, truth or dare?
SE: Um...dare!
Microsoft: I dare you to...make Dragon Quest IX for Xenon.
SE: Well, we don't want anyone making fun of us, so...alright.
I think that's the only way Square-Enix will pick Xenon over PS3.
SE: Um...dare!
Microsoft: I dare you to...make Dragon Quest IX for Xenon.
SE: Well, we don't want anyone making fun of us, so...alright.
I think that's the only way Square-Enix will pick Xenon over PS3.
Sadly. Since the quality of EA on Xbox Live is not comparable to Microsoft's own Xbox Live services.DarienA said:
I feel EA on Xbox Live is actually degrading the service. But I guess a lot of the the EA customers don't mind, being used to the infinatly crappier PS2 online or no online at all.
Duckhuntdog
Member
Now if they posted something like the X2 having a 3.2 GHZ three core PPC CPU and a 500 MZH GPU with say 256 megs of unified RAM, that would be news.
Duckhuntdog
Member
HokieJoe said:
So certain are you??
Kobold said:Sadly. Since the quality of EA on Xbox Live is not comparable to Microsoft's own Xbox Live services.
I feel EA on Xbox Live is actually degrading the service. But I guess a lot of the the EA customers don't mind, being used to the infinatly crappier PS2 online or no online at all.
Oh give me a break EA titles aren't the first titles to only have the barebones of XBL support built in to them.
EDIT:
Ah, I can't make a judgement on that as my personal "no online gaming" ban is still in effect.
Do The Mario
Unconfirmed Member
They only thing I care about is Bioware support, if the Xbox gets that new bioware game its mine!
boutrosinit said:
Famitsu survey on next gen consoles #1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Famitsu has asked developers,dealers and gamers which next gen console they're most interested in.These are the results:
Developers:
50 % - PlayStation3
32,1 % - Xbox 2
17,9 % - Nintendo Revolution
Dealers:
73,8 % - PlayStation3
21,3 % - Nintendo Revolution
4,9 % - Xbox 2
Gamers:
53,8 % - PlayStation3
39,5 % - Nintendo Revolution
6,7 % - Xbox 2
The staff has also written a few details on the three systems:
PS3:
State of the art technology.
More than gaming.
Could be introduced on the japanese market at the end of 2005.
Revolution:
New concept and functions,less stress on the technical capabilities.Easy to develop for.
Xenon:
Comfortable development environment thanks to XNA.
RPGs should be available since the introduction on the market.
Smaller than Xbox.
Mama Smurf
My penis is still intact.
doncale said:
Well we'd need to know if they only asked Japanese developers or not. Because if it is only Japanese, it does mean quite a bit when you look at the support the Xbox has had this generation when compared to that stat.
Izzy said:
I'll I see coming from this is 32.1% of developers having their games bomb. If the gamers are not interested in the system, then putting out a title on it means it's probably going to bomb and you won't make your money back.
Put DQ/FF/MGS on Xenon and you'll just have 3 companies losing out on millions and I don't think any company really wants to take huge losses unless MS's paychecks are big enough to make up for them.
deadhorse32
Bad Art
Mama Smurf said:
Xbox had a pretty good support from japaneses third parties at first.
Exclusive games from Konami (MGSX, SHX,...), Capcom (Dino Crisis3, Onimusha, Steel Battalion,...), Namco (Breakdown,...) & Tecmo.
At this point, lots of devs have the Xbox2 Sdk and know the Xbox2 specs while PS3 specs are still pretty vague and Revolution status is unknow. If I was MS I would be worry if I had less than 30% of japanese developers interested.
Nonetheless developers are not the one taking the decision about which hardwares receive what games. Those decision are taken by managers and those one are only attracted by money. Right now the dealers and more importantly the gamers seems to more interested by the Playstation 3 and the Revolution. If Microsoft can't attract the gamers, developers support will fade like with the first Xbox.
Time will tell