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[Tiago Rodrigues]

VR will always be niche. I'm sure Sony knows this.
Hell, when you consider how large the videogame market is, consoles alone ARE niche already...let alone VR.

 

[nominedomine]

The pandemic was a boon to sales of most entertainment devices. People were stuck at home for close to two years and needed ways to pass the time so they purchased items left and right. Not to mention people in the US were being handed stimulus money every few months from the government to spur the economy. Things are completely different now. Stimulus checks are long gone, the stock market has been in major decline since the start of the year, gas prices exploded, and people are feeling the pressure of higher and higher prices for all goods as the weeks and months pass by. Not a good time to be releasing a $500+ dollar optional peripheral.

We are discussing manufacturing not sales, Sony doesn't seem to have any problem when it comes to demand for PlayStation products. Luxury products are the exact sort of product that ain't going to suffer with any recession, not to mention that we are talking about VR, the ultimate form of escapism.

Sony wouldn't even be going for a PSVR2 if they didn't expect a considerable increase in sales compared to the first one.

 

[DeepEnigma]

VR will always be niche. I'm sure Sony knows this.

Hopefully it stays that way.

Seen too many dystopian Sci-Fi TV shows and movies with what mEtA wants to do.

 

[Salty Popsicle]

We are discussing manufacturing not sales, Sony doesn't seem to have any problem when it comes to demand for PlayStation products.

The chip shortage started to become prevalent in the first quarter of 2021, so approximately 1 year after COVID shut down the world. On top of this, the biggest losers initially were car manufacturers who had anticipated lower sales of their vehicles and deliberately cut their chip orders. The current chip shortage is affecting all electronic devices on a more even level than before. Only now are PS5 and Xbox Series X/S manufacturing levels catching up to demand.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

I was gonna say this, keeps giving us shit threads

But of course you are fibbing otherwise you wouldn't have posted. Thanks for coming. Appreciate the support.

The pandemic was a boon to sales of most entertainment devices. People were stuck at home for close to two years and needed ways to pass the time so they purchased items left and right. Not to mention people in the US were being handed stimulus money every few months from the government to spur the economy. Things are completely different now. Stimulus checks are long gone, the stock market has been in major decline since the start of the year, gas prices exploded, and people are feeling the pressure of higher and higher prices for all goods as the weeks and months pass by. Not a good time to be releasing a $500+ dollar optional peripheral.

US only gave out 3 stimulus checks, you're thinking of the people that abused the grant and unemployment systems where some people were getting paid more than what they were earning when working.

Him bringing up Quest 2 to dismiss shortages doesn't make much sense anyway, the PSVR2 will be chained to the PS5, which itself has shortages. The Quest 2 does not. So PSVR2 will rely on the component supply of two devices compared to one.

 

[nominedomine]

The chip shortage started to become prevalent in the first quarter of 2021, so approximately 1 year after COVID shut down the world. On top of this, the biggest losers initially were car manufacturers who had anticipated lower sales of their vehicles and deliberately cut their chip orders. The current chip shortage is affecting all electronic devices on amore even level than before.

Chip shortage has been a problem for a long time, long enough to have affected the release of the PS5 console. In other circumstances Sony would've made sure to show up with more consoles given that they had every reason to be a lot more confident on the demand for PS5 then they had when the PS4 was released.

 

[reinking]

I can't wait to get mine.

 

[poppabk]

VR will always be niche. I'm sure Sony knows this.
Hell, when you consider how large the videogame market is, consoles alone ARE niche already...let alone VR.

VR/AR is almost definitely the future of mobile tech, but it is a long way from being anything but a niche experience currently. Once we get to the point that the visual part of the tech is basically a pair of glasses we might start to see mass adoption.

 

[Salty Popsicle]

Chip shortage has been a problem for a long time, long enough to have affected the release of the PS5 console. In other circumstances Sony would've made sure to show up with more consoles given that they had every reason to be a lot more confident on the demand for PS5 then they had when the PS4 was released.

That's not true. Even during the launch of the Xbox One and PS4 back in 2013, Sony was actually losing some months in the NPD tracker because Microsoft was manufacturing more units than Sony was.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

Xbox doesn't even have any VR support, I don't get what it has to do with this.

But you need PS5's to use PSVR2, and if less PS5's are being sold due to competition, that lowers potential adoption of the PSVR2.

 

[nominedomine]

But you need PS5's to use PSVR2, and if less PS5's are being sold due to competition, that lowers potential adoption of the PSVR2.

There is hardly any indication that PS5 will be that far behind where the PS4 was when the first PSVR released, not to mention that PSVR2 being supported on PC is a real possibility.

I don't even understand your point to be honest. If the situation was that dire Sony could easily delay it again, there is close to zero pressure on them.

 

[LordBlodgett]

The PS4 Pro which provides the best performance for VR, if you can find it, is still being sold officially at the same price point when it launched, $399. This means that if you choose to purchase a PS4 Pro you will need to fork out $750 for the PSVR experience, only $50 in savings. In theory, but in practice with inflation, you are paying $10 more than the 2016 prices, so you aren't saving any money at all and are now paying more for the PS4+PSVR than you would have 6 years ago in 2016.

This is not how inflation works at all. $750 is worth less today than it was worth six years ago

 

[Sosokrates]

Unless sony is willing to use its best talent at a loss, it will probably have a similar faint to PSVR1, it seems sony is forgetting what it took to make a new platform appealing to the mass market.

 

[DeepSpace5D]

I don’t think using the combined price of both the PS5 + PSVR2 as a larger barrier to entry is going to be a significant deterrent because I doubt there is going to be a huge market of people that would be considering buying a PS5 solely for PSVR2.

More likely, people will have already picked up a PS5 for other games they were interested in, and will have a $400 decision on their hands if they want to try PSVR 2 in the future. That’s an easier pill to swallow if the two purchases are separated by time.

 

[TheMan]

I don’t foresee psvr2 being a blockbuster hit. I think it will chug along with decent sales and then Sony will drop vr for next gen

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

There is hardly any indication that PS5 will be that far behind where the PS4 was when the first PSVR released, not to mention that PSVR2 being supported on PC is a real possibility.

I don't even understand your point to be honest. If the situation was that dire Sony could easily delay it again, there is close to zero pressure on them.

There are a couple problems here, the first is that the PS4 sold over 50 million near the launch of the first PSVR, and with supply issues combined with better competition, the PS5 being $200 more expensive, and higher game prices, I am not sure it's going to reach that by late next year. If the PSVR 2 releases earlier than that there is no way that's going to be possible.

You are also looking at PS5 sales in isolation, if someone prefers the competition, or buys both, that would be an incentive away from making an additional investment in PSVR. Someone may see that the Switch is $100 less than PSVR and may decide to get one of those to compliment the PS5 instead, there are a lot more variables involved that weren't there with the PS4. This is of course assuming that the pSVR2 will match the first and cost only $400.

The Xbox Series being more competitive than Xbox one is relevant to PSVR2 sales since they require a PS5, the price of the PSVR2 $400 or possibly more, is also relevant, what other gaming devices you can buy for the same price as PSVR is relevant, the $200 price premium owning a PS5 over a PS4 slim in 2016 is also relevant, $70 games are relevant, the game delays are relevant, the combined prices are relevant, the lower cost of entry for PC or standalone VR is relevant, none of this did the PS4+PSVR1 had to deal with.

 

[nominedomine]

Unless sony is willing to use its best talent at a loss, it will probably have a similar faint to PSVR1, it seems sony is forgetting what it took to make a new platform appealing to the mass market.

You assume that's what Sony wants to do, they could simply be aiming to have a presence in VR and to slowly grow with it as it become more popular. Why would a game company like PlayStation not get involved with VR early on?

There are a couple problems here, the first is that the PS4 sold over 50 million near the launch of the first PSVR, and with supply issues combined with better competition, the PS5 being $200 more expensive, and higher game prices, I am not sure it's going to reach that by late next year. If the PSVR 2 releases earlier than that there is no way that's going to be possible.

You are also looking at PS5 sales in isolation, if someone prefers the competition, or buys both, that would be an incentive away from making an additional investment in PSVR. Someone may see that the Switch is $100 less than PSVR and may decide to get one of those to compliment the PS5 instead, there are a lot more variables involved that weren't there with the PS4. This is of course assuming that the pSVR2 will match the first and cost only $400.

The Xbox Series being more competitive than Xbox one is relevant to PSVR2 sales since they require a PS5, the price of the PSVR2 $400 or possibly more, is also relevant, what other gaming devices you can buy for the same price as PSVR is relevant, the $200 price premium owning a PS5 over a PS4 slim in 2016 is also relevant, $70 games are relevant, the game delays are relevant, the combined prices are relevant, the lower cost of entry for PC or standalone VR is relevant, none of this did the PS4+PSVR1 had to deal with.

You keep saying this about better competition... Why does it matter how much Xbox will be selling if it has no VR support at all? PS5 will according to Sony be close to catching up to where PS4 sales were for the same period.

The Xbox isn't doing drastically better then the Xbox One did. It has sold a few millions units more than the Xbox One at most and that's with it having a $300 SKU on the market.

Lower cost of entry for PC? $70 games? What are you even talking about? That won't be anything on the market like the PS5+PSVR2 for the same price.

 

[DarkMage619]

Unless sony is willing to use its best talent at a loss, it will probably have a similar faint to PSVR1, it seems sony is forgetting what it took to make a new platform appealing to the mass market.

Indeed. The PSVR2 does not appear to be mass market targeting device. Perhaps they just don't care and it's a way to be different like other platforms push subscription services.

I don't see this reaching a larger adoption rate than the first one but it will be interesting to see of there is an effort to put the best and brightest game developers on the peripheral to attract buyers.

 

[lukilladog]

Vr gaming hype train had its 5 minutes of fame (just look at what happened with the Index since it released a full 3 years ago -nothing-), so it seems Sony executives might be thinking on their own Metacrap thing, but not gaming. But of course it´s gonna fail miserably either way since people look for a specific experience on their consoles.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

I don’t think using the combined price of both the PS5 + PSVR2 as a larger barrier to entry is going to be a significant deterrent because I doubt there is going to be a huge market of people that would be considering buying a PS5 solely for PSVR2.

More likely, people will have already picked up a PS5 for other games they were interested in, and will have a $400 decision on their hands if they want to try PSVR 2 in the future. That’s an easier pill to swallow if the two purchases are separated by time.

The issue is the original PSVR never cut the price by any meaningful amount, it has only to this day received a $50 price reduction outside inventory cleanouts (like at Argos in the UK where it's 199) so people have been trained to suspect that the PSVR 2 will follow the same path and won't see any major price cut in its lifetime. This will repel those on the fence, and the PS5 itself will also likely not receive a price cut anytime soon, at least not until the inevitable slim model. By the time of PSVR1 the PS4 was $100 cheaper than introductory, the PS5 still costs $500, and is $200 more than the PS4 slim.

 

[Fess]

Yeah things aren’t looking good. Goes for the next Oculus too. There is just no VR hype anymore. VR isn’t dead but it’s just indie games and it’s not the mainstream success it looked like it could be when Quest 2 kinda exploded. Maybe Sony 1st party devs could inject some hype but they need to have a super strong launch plus a well planned post-launch schedule and AAA third party devs jumping in as well, otherwise it’ll fizzle and die in a year.

 

[ÆMNE22A!C]

Just sold my V1. Don't use it enough. Until it's price is reasonable and the games worth it, I'll think about it and wait for a sale.

 

[nominedomine]

The issue is the original PSVR never cut the price by any meaningful amount, it has only to this day received a $50 price reduction outside inventory cleanouts (like at Argos in the UK where it's 199) so people have been trained to suspect that the PSVR 2 will follow the same path and won't see any major price cut in its lifetime. This will repel those on the fence, and the PS5 itself will also likely not receive a price cut anytime soon, at least not until the inevitable slim model. By the time of PSVR1 the PS4 was $100 cheaper than introductory, the PS5 still costs $500, and is $200 more than the PS4 slim.

The lack of expectation for a future price cut is going to repel people that are unsure about buying it on release? Again, complete nonsense.

Pretty much everything you write also has this assumption that PS5 is going to be doing a lot worse in the future when there is zero indication of that. Is that your prediction or your wish?

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

This is not how inflation works at all. $750 is worth less today than it was worth six years ago

$5 now buys less than $5 6 years ago.

You keep saying this about better competition... Why does it matter how much Xbox will be selling if it has no VR support at all?

So did you just ignore the post your quoted which clearly tells you why Xbox not having VR doesn't matter, because the PSVR 2 still needs to be chained to a console to work? Which means that if the Xbox Series cuts into PS5 sales that means there's less PS5's out in the wild, which means less potential buyers for PSVR 2?

The Xbox isn't doing drastically better then the Xbox One did. It has sold a few millions units more than the Xbox One at most and that's with it having a $300 SKU on the market.

I'm not sure if this is serious or not.

 

[nominedomine]

So did you just ignore the post your quoted which clearly tells you why Xbox not having VR doesn't matter, because the PSVR 2 still needs to be chained to a console to work? Which means that if the Xbox Series cuts into PS5 sales that means there's less PS5's out in the wild, which means less potential buyers for PSVR 2?

Where is the indication that the Xbox is going to cut into the PS5 market?

 

[DeepSpace5D]

The issue is the original PSVR never cut the price by any meaningful amount, it has only to this day received a $50 price reduction outside inventory cleanouts (like at Argos in the UK where it's 199) so people have been trained to suspect that the PSVR 2 will follow the same path and won't see any major price cut in its lifetime. This will repel those on the fence, and the PS5 itself will also likely not receive a price cut anytime soon, at least not until the inevitable slim model. By the time of PSVR1 the PS4 was $100 cheaper than introductory, the PS5 still costs $500, and is $200 more than the PS4 slim.

If people are on the fence about purchasing one, I don’t think whether or not it will get a price cut will have much weight over their decision. It’s likely going to be $400, and people are going to purchase it or not at that price.

It’s going to come down to the quality of the content being offered in my opinion. We’ll see how well Horizon: Call of the Mountain kicks things off as a launch title.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

Yeah things aren’t looking good. Goes for the next Oculus too. There is just no VR hype anymore. VR isn’t dead but it’s just indie games and it’s not the mainstream success it looked like it could be when Quest 2 kinda exploded. Maybe Sony 1st party devs could inject some hype but they need to have a super strong launch plus a well planned post-launch schedule and AAA third party devs jumping in as well, otherwise it’ll fizzle and die in a year.

The biggest problem I noticed when the hype first started for VR was a lack of deeper gaming experiences. Everyone didn't mind the demos, shovelware, and simple experiences because they believed they were the stepping stone to greater software, that's why games like Astro Bot got such praise because it looked like it was the first step in the right direction.

Fast Forward to 2022 and many people have stopped waiting. All headsets more costly than the Quest 2 have had limited growth so most VR purchases are the Quest 2, which is priced toward the mainstream at prices as low as $349, and can work on a variety of configurations removing the need to spend $1200 on a PC. The market has consolidated. You are either in with the Quest 2, or you aren't in VR.

 

[ÆMNE22A!C]

Maybe take that in mind when talking sales disregarding a huge percentage of folks that don't have the luxury to keep your "what does it matter for sales" narrative.

 

[Panajev2001a]

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

If people are on the fence about purchasing one, I don’t think whether or not it will get a price cut will have much weight over their decision. It’s likely going to be $400, and people are going to purchase it or not at that price.

It’s going to come down to the quality of the content being offered in my opinion. We’ll see how well Horizon: Call of the Mountain kicks things off as a launch title.

The reason why they are on the fence is because the original PSVR never saw a substantial price cut in 6 years. It's one of the key reasons why the sales for it cut off.

Where is the indication that the Xbox is going to cut into the PS5 market?

It's been doing that for almost 2 years now.

 

[Banjo64]

In it’s current form it will never be mainstream. Won’t sell more than the Vita. Stick that in the bank and smoke it.

 

[Crayon]

By what metric did the first one come up short, btw? Any reasonable expectations it did not meet?

 

[ZoolNL]

It will fail. I would have rather seen a PSP2 (or a vita2) ala Switch…

 

[CS Lurker]

I don't think psvr2 will have quest 2 numbers, but I do hope I'm wrong. VR is amazing and should be at a much better position.

 

[ZoukGalaxy]

Not to mention the electric bill, water bill and the house you use to play it in. That's like 400,000 right there for a cheap one.

What about PC VR, gotta add another 2000 for the gaming rig and 500 for the monitor to set it up...

This.

 

[Crayon]

I don't think psvr2 will have quest 2 numbers, but I do hope I'm wrong. VR is amazing and should be at a much better position.

I don't think there is any way it's going to sell that much. PSVR is in the high end segmment that has been flagging from lack of games and imo console support.

 

[DenchDeckard]

There's no way it's going to be even as big as the first one on ps4. Unless they somehow launch it for like 199, which ain't happening.

I'm sure sonys internal projections have an idea of how well it will do.

 

[remember_spinal]

I’m sure sony already has a realistic number for attach rate per PS5 install base that they’re aiming for and wouldn’t invest in this unless they saw a net positive outcome for it.

They’re probably looking at an overall 5-10% attach rate which is possible if the software is good. They pretty much have an open lane for premium VR gaming…. And the quest 2 is now just as expensive as PSVR2 would be.

Most people that already own PS5’s would probably rather have the big blockbuster gaming experiences rather than just a wireless ‘toy’

 

[DeepSpace5D]

The reason why they are on the fence is because the original PSVR never saw a substantial price cut in 6 years. It's one of the key reasons why the sales for it cut off.

There really hasn’t been any meaningful software for the device for quite some time now. I still think that’s what it comes down to.

 

[Moses85]

OP

 

[ÆMNE22A!C]

So being ignorant of folks that can't buy a psvr2 on launch so the narrative it won't impact sales aren't worthy to mention regarding using a certain word to describe the ignorance of rather obliviousness makes a mod delete my post.

Fair enough.

Nice reporting tho.

 

[Korso]

This logic is like saying your first PS5 game costs you $570... while, in the end its almost true, you are going to be doing more than just playing one game, hopefully. The PSVR has always been an additional product for Playstation owners looking to also get a VR experience. It's disingenuous to add both costs together.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

There really hasn’t been any meaningful software for the device for quite some time now. I still think that’s what it comes down to.

Astro Bot came out in 2018 which is when sales momentum came to a stop and that game was seen as the firs step toward real games being made for VR in general, not just PSVR, hyped to the sky by forums and gaming journalists. Software may helpw ith early adoption but it's not going to matter if price doesn't come along with it.

I’m sure sony already has a realistic number for attach rate per PS5 install base that they’re aiming for and wouldn’t invest in this unless they saw a net positive outcome for it.

They’re probably looking at an overall 5-10% attach rate which is possible if the software is good. They pretty much have an open lane for premium VR gaming…. And the quest 2 is now just as expensive as PSVR2 would be.

Most people that already own PS5’s would probably rather have the big blockbuster gaming experiences rather than just a wireless ‘toy’

Most people will choose that wireless toy because they can use it with multiple hardware devices, and won't have to buy two difference pieces of hardware. Even if they already have a PS5, given the current situation with game output and delays, they will more likely buy a PS Plus subscription and several games than by PSVR at $400.

I think you are greatly misreading the casual gamer, the casual non-gamer, and the parent. Quest 2 is selling because it managed to reach appeal that other VR headsets since the Gear have not been able to reach. 15 million devices sold is no laughing matter in a tech sector this niche.

By what metric did the first one come up short, btw? Any reasonable expectations it did not meet?

Well the change in strategy and the studio closures that happened after software didn't sell within expectations were the first hint. The second is 5 million in 6 years, which averages to less than 850,000 a year, made even worse by the fact the first 4. million sold happened within the first two years on the market.

Sony may have possibly still made some profit considering they never reduced the price over a small $50 cut, to make up for these issues, but that may not work the same way twice, especially since PSVR2 and the PS5 are newer technology.

 

[CS Lurker]

I don't think there is any way it's going to sell that much. PSVR is in the high end segmment that has been flagging from lack of games and imo console support.

Since the vita I don't put faith on playstation's secondary products. But who knows how serious sony is about it this time. The fact that they are doubling down the bet on VR, coming with a product that seems to be really well thought, could indicate they will invest more this time around. Will they invest more in 1st and 3rd party content this time? Maybe, we still don't know the role picture.

Personally I'm curious about how well the foveated rendering will work. Has sony's engineers cracked it? How much performance It will save for the GPU? Will it help a lot in converting 2D AAA in VR titles?

Anyway, like I said, I don't put faith on sony. I prefer to see it happening then believing it'll happen.
But there are important pieces still missing to complete this puzzle.

I think the quest 2 success can help psvr 2. But for the psvr2 to truly succeed, it all depends on sony's commitment. We'll see what happens.

 

[Crayon]

Well the change in strategy and the studio closures that happened after software didn't sell within expectations were the first hint. The second is 5 million in 6 years, which averages to less than 850,000 a year, made even worse by the fact the first 4. million sold happened within the first two years on the market.

Sony may have possibly still made some profit considering they never reduced the price over a small $50 cut, to make up for these issues, but that may not work the same way twice, especially since PSVR2 and the PS5 are newer technology.

Wow they did 9 million? That's pretty good, actually. I think the vive did under 200,000. Probably that $2,600 price with a pc and two games.

Edit: Or is it 5 total and not 9? 5 would be more like I thought it was.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

And with a 5M user base on 117M PS4s that's why you'll get $20 demo kinds of games and not AAA games.

PSVR2 isn't even compatible with PS4, so with around 25M PS5s sold, you'll get a fraction of gamers buying in.

 

[ÆMNE22A!C]

And kids have 1100$

 

[HTK]

This sounds like a Sony problem to solve rather than yours or mine. Just my .02

 

[Crayon]

So what does it need to do to be a success? It might be good to stake out the starting place of the goalpost now.

 

[jroc74]

Don't forget the house or apt needed.

$1200 -$2000 a month.

Pretty much.