llien
Banned
If you wonder, where it would fall, the European Space Agency (ESA) said re-entry "will take place anywhere between 43ºN and 43ºS", which covers a vast stretch north and south of the equator.. If you still wonder, where that is, here is it, marked green:
How will it crash?
The station is gradually coming close to Earth.
Its rate of descent "will continually get faster as the atmosphere that the station is ploughing through gets thicker," Dr Elias Aboutanios, deputy director of the Australian Centre for Space Engineering Research, told the BBC.
"The station will eventually start to heat up as it gets close to 100km [from Earth]," he says.
This will lead to most of the station burning up and "it is difficult to know exactly what will survive since the makeup of the station has not been disclosed by China".
Mr Aboutanios said if it does burn up during night time over a populated area, it "will most certainly be visible, like a meteor or a shooting star".
Should I be worried?
No. Most of the 8.5-tonne station will disintegrate as it passes through the atmosphere.
Some very dense parts such as the fuel tanks or rocket engines might not burn up completely. However, even if parts do survive to the Earth's surface, the chances of them hitting a person are incredibly slim.
"Our experience is that for such large objects typically between 20% and 40% of the original mass will survive re-entry and then could be found on the ground, theoretically," the head of Esa's space debris office, Holger Krag, told reporters at a recent briefing.
"However, to be injured by one of these fragments is extremely unlikely. My estimate is that the probability of being injured by one of these fragments is similar to the probability of being hit by lightning twice in the same year."
BBC
I might be worrying too much, but "typically only between 20% and 40% of 8.5 tonne piece will survive" doesn't make me feel safe.
Notable mention: Death by Meteorite? India Tragedy May Be 1st in Recorded History
How will it crash?
The station is gradually coming close to Earth.
Its rate of descent "will continually get faster as the atmosphere that the station is ploughing through gets thicker," Dr Elias Aboutanios, deputy director of the Australian Centre for Space Engineering Research, told the BBC.
"The station will eventually start to heat up as it gets close to 100km [from Earth]," he says.
This will lead to most of the station burning up and "it is difficult to know exactly what will survive since the makeup of the station has not been disclosed by China".
Mr Aboutanios said if it does burn up during night time over a populated area, it "will most certainly be visible, like a meteor or a shooting star".
Should I be worried?
No. Most of the 8.5-tonne station will disintegrate as it passes through the atmosphere.
Some very dense parts such as the fuel tanks or rocket engines might not burn up completely. However, even if parts do survive to the Earth's surface, the chances of them hitting a person are incredibly slim.
"Our experience is that for such large objects typically between 20% and 40% of the original mass will survive re-entry and then could be found on the ground, theoretically," the head of Esa's space debris office, Holger Krag, told reporters at a recent briefing.
"However, to be injured by one of these fragments is extremely unlikely. My estimate is that the probability of being injured by one of these fragments is similar to the probability of being hit by lightning twice in the same year."
BBC
I might be worrying too much, but "typically only between 20% and 40% of 8.5 tonne piece will survive" doesn't make me feel safe.
Notable mention: Death by Meteorite? India Tragedy May Be 1st in Recorded History
