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[Majine]

Japanese leader Shinzo Abe has called an early election as he seeks to take advantage of higher opinion polls to secure a third consecutive term as prime minister.

Addressing the country in a national address Monday, Abe said he'll dissolve parliament's lower house on Thursday. A total of 475 seats in the lower house will be up for grabs.

"I've decided I must seek the mandate of the people immediately so I will dissolve the lower house on the 28th of this month," Abe said. He said his decision was influenced by the rising tensions over North Korea.

"We must not give into the threat of North Korea. I hope to gain the confidence of the people in the upcoming election and push forward strong diplomacy," he said.
The country's 48th general election comes after a shaky time for Abe and his government, which was wracked by two corruption scandals linked to the Prime Minister and his wife, and the resignation of defense minister Tomomi Inada over an alleged cover-up.

Abe, who has held power for five years, has seen his popularity fall significantly in the wake of the scandals. His decision to call a snap election, analysts say, is aimed taking advantage of a recent uptick in ratings, thanks largely to the ongoing North Korea crisis and his handling of it. Pyongyang has fired two ballistic missiles over northern Japan in recent weeks.
"In theory, Abe has more than a year left (in office), but he is aware of the fact that his support levels are unlikely to improve much more," said Koichi Nakano, a professor of Japanese politics at Tokyo's Sophia University.

"He has been pushed into a corner by the scandals and he is afraid that once parliament is reconvened, he will face further questioning and another sharp drop in the polls."
Florian Kohlbacher, North Asia director of the Economist Corporate Network, said Abe is also likely hoping to avoid any potential impact the abdication of the Emperor would have on an election next year.

Source

 

[Shauni]

This didn't work for Britian's evil bastards, but it may for Abe

 

[Strax]

Stuff like this is why people hate politics

 

[lush]

Definite echoes of Theresa May with this decision.

Almost two-thirds of Japanese voters are opposed to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe calling a snap election, a Kyodo news agency survey showed on Sunday, a day before the Japanese leader is expected to announce an October vote.

According to the survey, 27 percent of the respondents plan to vote for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in proportional representation districts in the expected lower house election, versus 8 percent who favor the struggling main opposition Democratic Party.

Reuters

 

[HazySaiyan]

Taking a leaf out of the Theresa May school of politics I see. Although I don’t know enough about Japanese politics to know if this is worth the gamble.

 

[shnurgleton]

Why are politicians allowed to do this

 

[Xe4]

Fuck off Abe. I hope voters kick your war crime apologizing ass out.

 

[Ishan]

Btw what's the general consensus in Japan on expanding the military in the light of trump/nk?

 

[Valkerionseven]

That time of the year again I guess. The recent "scandals" have been nothing largely politics wise, just scapegoating people (mainly the ladies)

Btw what's the general consensus in Japan on expanding the military in the light of trump/nk?

Still largely not in favor of. Of the ratio of the population that seems to care enough to express an opinion of it.

 

[MLH]

I hope it backfires in his face. Politicians can be such egotistical cunts.

 

[Mr. Pointy]

I don't know if it'll apply to neatly to Japanese politics, but considering the last few times others have tried this, I hope he'll enjoy his 1-seat majority.

 

[Maledict]

Why are politicians allowed to do this

Its a feature of parliamentary democracies unfortunately. Parliamentary systems will never have the stable cycles that the American system has because governments can collapse and have to hold a general election at any time, and a side effect of that is that the party in power often has the ability to call an early election when it wants. It’s very hard to actually remove that power.

 

[sprsk]

Btw what's the general consensus in Japan on expanding the military in the light of trump/nk?

Abe wants an election cause right now people are too scared to veer from the course. If he can win and shore up support he can use this as a way to push his constitutional agenda.

He wants nuclear weapons and a standing army, this NK business is a gift to him and his far right wacko friends.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

That time of the year again I guess. The recent "scandals" have been nothing largely politics wise, just scapegoating people (mainly the ladies)

Oh, they have definitely been something. Abe hasn't been able to focus on starting constitution revision talks primarily because of the beating he's been deservedly getting as a result of the corruption scandals and his horribly sloppy job of trying to cover them up. He wouldn't be forced to call this election right now if it weren't for them and there's definitely a possibility the LDP will lose their 2/3 majority required to begin constitution revision debate.

This is really his only chance to possibly salvage his power with the Democratic Party in shambles and Tokyo governor Koike's national political party still in an its infancy.

I can only hope the average Japanese person sees how brazen Abe and the LDP is being right now and don't let them get away with it. If they manage to score a big victory despite everything that's going on right now, they will definitely feel emboldened to go down the path of constitution revision and re-militarization.

 

[jelly]

I vaguely remember reading Japanese people or maybe the younger ones don't have a interest in politics whatsoever so you get people like him in power.

 

[Jackpot]

It seems distastefully exploitative of the N Korea situation as people will seek continuity in the face of outside instability.

 

[Magni]

Really hope it backfires on him, but knowing Japan... I'm not so hopeful.

 

[Mivey]

Why are politicians allowed to do this

This is a good thing in principle? If shit doesn't work out, they don't have to just wait it out for years and years. And if people feel someone is abusing it, then, get this, you can actually vote to punish them for it. The basic assumption of any democracy is that people can express themselves competently (voting in their interests and wishes) on a ballot.
If that's not the case, well, then you have bigger issues than snap elections.

 

[Zeouterlimits]

Clever move, and pretty damn disgusting.

How could one not play it safe right now.
Ugh. Abe needs to go.

 

[BlackLagoon]

Its a feature of parliamentary democracies unfortunately. Parliamentary systems will never have the stable cycles that the American system has because governments can collapse and have to hold a general election at any time, and a side effect of that is that the party in power often has the ability to call an early election when it wants. It’s very hard to actually remove that power.

It's not inherent in parliamentarianism though. I think there are several countries that only allow new elections as a last resort if the government falls and all attempts to find a new one fail. And Norway has no mechanism for calling new elections whatsoever, once elected its parliament is set for the next 4 years regardless of what happens.

 

[danthefan]

I find the sentiment in this thread really weird. He's giving the people a chance to throw him out. It's democracy.

 

[Ishan]

I find the sentiment in this thread really weird. He's giving the people a chance to throw him out. It's democracy.

Well ppl disliked bush but say us reelection were held right after a national / world scale tragedy like 9/11 he might have rivaled Reagan on electoral votes ... National opinion does surge for incumbents during times of crisis

 

[Ac30]

I find the sentiment in this thread really weird. He's giving the people a chance to throw him out. It's democracy.

Yes, the people can vote for Komeito, the Communists, and... the DPJ (snort)

He's going to easily win this, just as his party has the last 70-odd years. There's no credible opposition in Japan.

 

[Majine]

I find the sentiment in this thread really weird. He's giving the people a chance to throw him out. It's democracy.

I'm no expert, but it seems more beneficial to the PM than the opposition to decide when elections are being held.

No?

 

[Jacob]

I find the sentiment in this thread really weird. He's giving the people a chance to throw him out. It's democracy.

The usual criticism of snap elections is that it's a way for the party in power to try to game the system by calling the election at the most advantageous time for them at the expense of other parties and their supporters (though as Theresa May and the Tories proved, judging that isn't always easy). Though actually the May thing isn't the best example because the UK introduced restrictions on the early calling of elections in 2011 so Labour had to agree to have an early one in 2017 (which ended up working out very well for them despite what opinion polling showed beforehand).

 

[urfe]

The lack of real opposition (besides the Communists) should make this not work poorly. Secures LDP in power for Olympics.

I guess we could rest our hope in the Hope Party, but they’re just another conservative party.

 

[massoluk]

Abe wants an election cause right now people are too scared to veer from the course. If he can win and shore up support he can use this as a way to push his constitutional agenda.

He wants nuclear weapons and a standing army, this NK business is a gift to him and his far right wacko friends.

.... Trumped

 

[Seiryoden]

Unfortunately, I suspect it'll pay off for him. The DP is all at sea atm with Yamao quitting earlier this month and Maehara struggling to stamp his authority on a party that knows it has problems but is too busy with in-fighting to solve them. Koike's group will probably pinch a few seats but they're an LDP faction in all but name.

 

[Principate]

The usual criticism of snap elections is that it's a way for the party in power to try to game the system by calling the election at the most advantageous time for them at the expense of other parties and their supporters (though as Theresa May and the Tories proved, judging that isn't always easy). Though actually the May thing isn't the best example because the UK introduced restrictions on the early calling of elections in 2011 so Labour had to agree to have an early one in 2017 (which ended up working out very well for them despite what opinion polling showed beforehand).

TBF I can feel too much can be taken in analyis by Theresa May's decision. You can't discredit the effect that May is simply an awful campaigner probably amongst the worst pm-wise this country has seen in recent history and conversely Corbyn was pretty decent (which is why he's managed to survive an outright hostile party).

If she was remotely decent I doubt it would have been as close as it was.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

I'm no expert, but it seems more beneficial to the PM than the opposition to decide when elections are being held.

No?

Definitely, but it's up to the opposition to be ready for an election at any time.

 

[Calabi]

I find the sentiment in this thread really weird. He's giving the people a chance to throw him out. It's democracy.

Because its out of a predictable playbook termed the Shock Doctrine, by Naomi Klein. Its using unstable times to further your unpopular policies. You can manipulate people to do whatever you want if you pick the right time and the right message, even if those people would eventually regret it.

 

[sprsk]

Unfortunately, I suspect it'll pay off for him. The DP is all at sea atm with Yamao quitting earlier this month and Maehara struggling to stamp his authority on a party that knows it has problems but is too busy with in-fighting to solve them. Koike's group will probably pinch a few seats but they're an LDP faction in all but name.

Yeah I would assume the Japan First party will try and use this to pick up a few more seats, but I'm not sure they are any better when it comes to the NK situation.

I wouldn't say they are an LDP faction tho, they may be right wing but they don't particularly like the fact a woman is in charge, and more or less wiped them out of the Tokyo metropolitan gov.

It's too bad Japan is just infested with incapable politicians. The left has no one they can rally behind, which is poison for left wing politics. Young folks need inspiration and hope that things can change, but Japanese politicians are like anti all of the above. Just a bunch of out of touch old men. Policies of the Japanese government largely seen as ineffectual and irrelevant to most people, which is a recipe for indifference.

 

[Izuna]

End of Abenomics?

Fat chance.

 

[DominusLeges]

This is his step 1 for the militarization of Japan. The outrageously large majority of the older population will ensure he's successful.

 

[Dynamite Shikoku]

Hope it blows up in his face

 

[MikeHattsu]

Can choose between the old conservative party or the new conservative party then:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...solves-lower-house-opposition-bands-together/

In a dramatic move sure to change the landscape of the nation’s politics, the center-left Democratic Party decided Thursday to effectively disband its Lower House caucus and join Kibo no To (Party of Hope), a new conservative party led by Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike.

The effective sudden death of the nation’s largest opposition force could turn the Oct. 22 Lower House election into a two-way race between conservative forces: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party and Kibo no To.

The proposal to shift allegiance to Koike’s movement, made by party president Seiji Maehara, was unanimously approved at a general meeting of DP lawmakers the same day. Under the plan, all DP candidates for the general election have been asked to abandon party membership and apply to join the official ticket of Kibo no To.

But it remains unclear how many DP applicants will be accepted by Kibo no To. During a TV interview on Wednesday, Koike, a right-leaning conservative, said her party will choose applicants from the DP after close consideration of their views on constitutional revision and security issues. The comment has been interpreted as indicating that Kibo no To will refuse to accept left-leaning DP lawmakers.

This means the powerful Lower House could be dominated by two major conservative parties after the Oct. 22 election, observers say.

Oh, and before they became a proper political party named Party of Hope, they were known as Japan First:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...tical-group-shake-japans-political-landscape/

 

[God Dayumm]

These things should only be allowed if the PM/president is about to resign

 

[VendettaRed07]

I think tactical election dates are one of the worst things about most parliamentary systems. Election dates should be set. You shouldn't be able to look at your approval ratings and get an extra couple years out of it

 

[Chaos2Frozen]

My understanding is that young Japanese adults are extremely disillusioned about their political system that they don't bother voting.

I don't know if that's been improved since the last time they let Abe get voted back in.

But hey who knows, maybe Persona 5 have changed their hearts this time.

 

[Dehnus]

This didn't work for Britian's evil bastards, but it may for Abe

Meh, Abe andhis party already did populist rhetoric long before the black vans arrived. Heck executions in Japan: The prime minister can decide who gets to die and when .

Soooooo.... basically if he wants to seem "tough on crime", he opens the book, finds someone the public really hates and calls an execution to "seem soooo tough!".

If you're sentenced to death, you do not know when you die, it is decided by the aforementioned. So yeah.... no need for him to worry, his party will go full on the populist organ.

 

[MikeHattsu]

My understanding is that young Japanese adults are extremely disillusioned about their political system that they don't bother voting.

I don't know if that's been improved since the last time they let Abe get voted back in.

But hey who knows, maybe Persona 5 have changed their hearts this time.

Well, doubt that the biggest party on the left just disbanded now and everybody is going to join the new right wing conservative party instead is helping much

 

[Chaos2Frozen]

Well, doubt that the biggest party on the left just disbanded now and everybody is going to join the new right wing conservative party instead is helping much

...Well... shit ^^;

 

[llien]

Abe wants an election cause right now people are too scared to veer from the course. If he can win and shore up support he can use this as a way to push his constitutional agenda.

He wants nuclear weapons and a standing army, this NK business is a gift to him and his far right wacko friends.

I heard about military buildup plans, but, nuclear? Japan has signed nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

Boosting anti-missile capabilities sounds reasonable to me..

This didn't work for Britian's evil bastards, but it may for Abe

Well, "dementia tax" did it (or so was I told), it's a fuckup inside the right move: having election when your popularity peaks.

 

[Pepboy]

This is his step 1 for the militarization of Japan. The outrageously large majority of the older population will ensure he's successful.

They'll use NK as an excuse to ramp up military spending and amend Constitution for preemptive strikes with self defense force.

The real threat they see is the rising Chinese navy. China's navy will likely surpass US in next two decades, which will give them far too much power in trade negotiations and saber rattling like South East Seas.

 

[StrangeRoboMemory]

 

[Deleted member 13876]

Soooooo.... basically if he wants to seem "tough on crime", he opens the book, finds someone the public really hates and calls an execution to "seem soooo tough!".

He has the Death Note?

 

[Dr.Acula]

I actually like that parties can call snap election, it was a feature in Canada. Yes, in theory an incumbent party can "take advantage" of the polls, but just as often people resent it and vote them out, so it's a pretty risky proposition. The advantage is that we avoid these protracted two-year election cycles that countries with fixed dates seem to suffer.

You think you hate a party because they force you to hear about them for 30 days during a time you didn't expect? How about hearing about them for a year during a time you will expect?

 

[moffattron9000]

I actually like that parties can call snap election, it was a feature in Canada. Yes, in theory an incumbent party can "take advantage" of the polls, but just as often people resent it and vote them out, so it's a pretty risky proposition. The advantage is that we avoid these protracted two-year election cycles that countries with fixed dates seem to suffer.

You think you hate a party because they force you to hear about them for 30 days during a time you didn't expect? How about hearing about them for a year during a time you will expect?

As someone else from a country with a parliamentary system (New Zealand), it's great. It's also is especially essential when you have proportional representation, since PR can create unstable coalitions (usually containing Winston Peters), which can collapse. I'd rather vote two years after an election if a government falls apart, then go the full three years with a zombie government.

 

[Familienoberhauptvogel]

As someone else from a country with a parliamentary system (New Zealand), it's great. It's also is especially essential when you have proportional representation, since PR can create unstable coalitions (usually containing Winston Peters), which can collapse. I'd rather vote two years after an election if a government falls apart, then go the full three years with a zombie government.

it's not like snap elections are the only way to call reelections. Many parliamentary systems have failsafes that call for elections if a coalition breaks up or can't be formed in a certain time period in the first place.

 

[wandering]

You’re telling me that the largest socially liberal party just went and became conservative?

Great.