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[Laekon]

Yea not to mention that their Asian neighbors are closing the gap when it comes to vehicles and electronics, plus Japan has territory disputes in the region (and not just with China) which doesn't help. But I think their exports have actually been rising anyway.

Time will tell how Abenomics, especially with weaker support, will hold up.

Exports have been rising because Abe's economic plan was to decrease the value of the yen. Japanese index funds have had crazy returns in the last 3 years because of this. It was also suppose to get people to buy more domestic made products. The real issue is still the shrinking population and the moving of production to cheaper countries like China and Vietnam.

Also how advance a nation is has nothing to do with the health of its economy. You could argue the opposite easily. Highly advanced robotic production has little use for workers.

 

[Abounder]

Exports have been rising because Abe's economic plan was to decrease the value of the yen. Japanese index funds have had crazy returns in the last 3 years because of this. It was also suppose to get people to buy more domestic made products. The real issue is still the shrinking population and the moving of production to cheaper countries like China and Vietnam.

Also how advance a nation is has nothing to do with the health of its economy. You could argue the opposite easily. Highly advanced robotic production has little use for workers.

I agree, what Japan really needs is millions of immigrants or their economy will keep suffering.

 

[AyaisMUsikWhore]

I'm surprised. I didn't expect them to be going through a recession considering I just watched a video of their newly built bullet train.

 

[machemachete]

Well, i hope they accept inmigrants as soon as posible so i can move there, because right now is very dificult, specially if they dont have many traveling plans for peruvians.

 

[leroidys]

So many experts in here.

 

[vpance]

I agree, what Japan really needs is millions of immigrants or their economy will keep suffering.

Where will they live though?

 

[Zaraki_Kenpachi]

I'm surprised. I didn't expect them to be going through a recession considering I just watched a video of their newly built bullet train.

What?

 

[Deleted member 17706]

Where will they live though?

Not that I necessarily think open immigration is a good idea, but there is plenty of space in Japan outside of Tokyo.

The problem is that there just isn't a ton of work.

 

[John Kowalski]

Not even Kyoani doing lewd can save japan.

 

[Brawly Likes to Brawl]

Japan news thread? Incoming flood of theories and opinions based on sensationalist Vice articles.

This is all obviously the Otaku subculture's fault.

 

[vpance]

Screw economics and forecasts. Japan is clearly going for a cultural victory.

Not that I necessarily think open immigration is a good idea, but there is plenty of space in Japan outside of Tokyo.

The problem is that there just isn't a ton of work.

I agree, I don't think it'd work either.

 

[whatever77]

The problem is Japanese manufacturing industry has been hallowed out during the time when Yen was expensive (thanks to the Plaza Accord). Now Japan took a look at China's economy, realized bowing up to American's pressure to revalue the Yen was stupid and decide to devalue the yen again to complete with China in high-end manufacturing. But the jobs has been moved out of Japan, it doesn't take 1 or 2 years or even a political cycle to come back.

Unless Japan has long term commitment to lower yen value, the big companies don't want to risk building new domestic manufacturing plants either. AANNND Japan is already neck deep in national debt, and the majority of the debt (80-90%) is being held by Japanese too. So unlike the US, printing more money won't help either. Japan is fucked.

 

[Cheesemeister]

The sales tax hike hit pretty hard. That nonsense needs to get rolled back in order to re-energize the consumer market. Going up to 10% would be tremendously ill-advised, so I still expect it to happen anyway.

 

[Sakura]

I don't really think immigration is a solution... how many immigrants would you need to have substantial enough growth? Would there be enough room for them all to live? Japan is smaller than the state of California yet has over 120 million people. If you go shove them into the countryside where there is space, would there even be anything for them to do there?
I mean, there are countries in Europe that are facing population declination issues, and they aren't exactly as opposed to immigration as Japan is.

 

[Nuklear]

Japan doesn't want immigrants so it's not even worth discussing.

 

[ucdawg12]

abenomics has just been a variation of reaganomics. an emphasis on supply-side in the hopes that companies will increase wages cause they are getting more cash. instead companies just accumulated more and sat on it because that increased revenue had nothing to do with an increased domestic demand. meanwhile the inflation made what wages the japanese were taking home worth less as real wages fell (in spite of abe promising a "wage surprise" more like surprise your money's worth less). then on top of that they throw in a consumption tax with an already weak domestic demand and boom recession.

this is not a surprise to anyone with common sense who thought about the actual consequences of these actions rather than just hoping doing something would work.

abe has done nothing to increase demand (where's that third arrow?). his priority is not to improve the economy (ask the middle and lower class if they feel any positive effects), it's to pretend he is so he acquires the political capital to enact his very unpopular far-right policies.

 

[HideyoshiJP]

Don't worry, Japan. I'm on it.

Spoiler

As a tourist next month...

 

[lupinko]

In the past, industrialised, developed nations have used immigration to get around this problem.

Japan still refuses to do this.

Actually it's been done in the past with Brazilian Japanese, which didn't go well at all.

Mass immigration is a very complex matter when talking about Japan which I've grown to learn while living here.

 

[ponpo]

No mass immigration please I don't want to have to start locking up my bike ( ≖‿&#8790

 

[-Horizon-]

Not even Kyoani doing lewd can save japan.

We need to get lewder.

 

[MadraptorMan]

Weak yen couldn't come at a worse time for me....visiting the US in December for Christmas and just by waiting I lost 15% of my money's worth converting to dollars last week.

>_<

 

[8 X 11 Printer Paper]

No mass immigration please I don't want to have to start locking up my bike ( &#8790;&#8255;&#8790

Just import Canadians then, they would never steal anything.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

No mass immigration please I don't want to have to start locking up my bike ( &#8790;&#8255;&#8790

I want to frame this post next to the South Park "They took our jerbs!" skit.

 

[EMT0]

Actually it's been done in the past with Brazilian Japanese, which didn't go well at all.

Mass immigration is a very complex matter when talking about Japan which I've grown to learn while living here.

Yup. My dad moved to Japan when he was younger, when Japan opened its immigration restrictions towards Peruvians and Brazilians. Long story short, he isn't in Japan anymore.

 

[injurai]

Japan doesn't want immigrants so it's not even worth discussing.

If they can turn things around with a shrinking population and remaining anti-immigration. They may end up the first country to reach the next era of a self-sustaining competitive economy.

Or other countries will just burn out brighter.

 

[Mesousa]

Yup. My dad moved to Japan when he was younger, when Japan opened its immigration restrictions towards Peruvians and Brazilians. Long story short, he isn't in Japan anymore.

It was pretty disgusting to what they did to the many Brazilians, most of whom were of Japanese origin, when many were discriminated against terribly and paid to leave when the economy went belly-up before.

 

[Josh7289]

Screw economics and forecasts. Japan is clearly going for a cultural victory.



I agree, I don't think it'd work either.

I got that reference.

So, there's no way in hell Japan is going to suddenly start supporting immigration, so they're either getting out of this on their own or not at all. And I hate to bring this up, but since it's happened once before, I hope they don't go down a very dark, nationalistic path again on their road to recovery like they did from the late 1800s until 1945.

 

[John Kowalski]

We need to get lewder.

 

[dhlt25]

I think they are in dire need of an injection of high tech, high skill worker along with workers in the health care/service sector. However, their immigration policy won't change any time soon.

 

[Valkerionseven]

Yes, according to the OECD poverty rates in Japan are roughly equivalent to those in the US. But in Japan poverty is somewhat hidden because the poor are not living in ghettos and trailer houses but instead in 20m^2 apartments.

That right there.

Outside the newer built (late 90s) upper/upper middle class neighborhoods you see so many random... shacks, and dilapidated homes/reworked factory additions being used as homes sprinkled all over. Usually theres a few in every middle class area that simply were not torn down or because someone is living in them. Really random to see like 4 fairly new homes built in like 06, then a random metal+2x4 shack with a metal screen door as the main entrance then more new homes. Also Japan definitely has "the projects" as we call them but no one seems to realize it haha.

I admit they do a good job of hiding it publicly I guess, or at least acting like they don't see it ala the homeless people in the country. Can't wait to hear the horror stories of what they do with them during the olympics cause we already know they are on thin ice with this issue. Pretty much the whole reason they kept getting skipped over for it before everyone realized it was a waste of effing money lol.

 

[Triplicates]

The problem is Japanese manufacturing industry has been hallowed out during the time when Yen was expensive (thanks to the Plaza Accord). Now Japan took a look at China's economy, realized bowing up to American's pressure to revalue the Yen was stupid and decide to devalue the yen again to complete with China in high-end manufacturing. But the jobs has been moved out of Japan, it doesn't take 1 or 2 years or even a political cycle to come back.

The Plaza Accord is not the proximate cause for Japan's economic stagnation. I know that's the popular narrative in Chinese circles but the truth is quite the opposite. The yen appreciated rapidly after 1986 and, as policy countermeasures, Japan undertook monetary easing and fiscal stimulus which only aggravated its property bubble. After that, the financial industry, along with timid politicians and central bankers mired Japan in a deflationary trap, which is completely missing in your narrative, and far more important to Japan's woes.

Focusing on exports is incorrect because, even after the bubble years, exports rose, making up a larger proportion of the Japanese economy. Actually, manufacturing is still a strength. If there has been a hollowing out, it would have been in the last 5-10 years but the jury is still out on the long-term impacts because 1) the decline of manufacturing can still plausibly be halted and even reversed and 2) there are ways to rejigger the economy to be less dependant on exports. Note how, even despite the trade deficits, Japan logs current account surpluses because of overseas investments.

AANNND Japan is already neck deep in national debt, and the majority of the debt (80-90%) is being held by Japanese too. So unlike the US, printing more money won't help either. Japan is fucked.

Inflation targeting.

The sales tax hike hit pretty hard. That nonsense needs to get rolled back in order to re-energize the consumer market. Going up to 10% would be tremendously ill-advised, so I still expect it to happen anyway.

The delay is all but guaranteed now. The consumption tax is the third rail of Japanese politics so it's actually remarkable that the hike to 8% happened without any real risk of severe damage to the Abe administration.

The consumption tax in Japan is like the lowest in the developed world and orthodox economics, backed up by tons of evidence, says that consumption tax hikes don't have a lasting impact on the economy. What Japan really needs is for incomes to rise because without that, you get this very strange result.

 

[rrvv]

I guess only way to recover from it is to wait old people to die and significant decreased in populations so they Can start open up immigrant

 

[whatever77]

The Plaza Accord is not the proximate cause for Japan's economic stagnation. I know that's the popular narrative in Chinese circles but the truth is quite the opposite. The yen appreciated rapidly after 1986 and, as policy countermeasures, Japan undertook monetary easing and fiscal stimulus which only aggravated its property bubble. After that, the financial industry, along with timid politicians and central bankers mired Japan in a deflationary trap, which is completely missing in your narrative, and far more important to Japan's woes.

Focusing on exports is incorrect because, even after the bubble years, exports rose, making up a larger proportion of the Japanese economy. Actually, manufacturing is still a strength. If there has been a hollowing out, it would have been in the last 5-10 years but the jury is still out on the long-term impacts because 1) the decline of manufacturing can still plausibly be halted and even reversed and 2) there are ways to rejigger the economy to be less dependant on exports. Note how, even despite the trade deficits, Japan logs current account surpluses because of overseas investments.

I think the real weakness of Japan's ecnomy in the 90s was that, it was built a foundation that was too easily copyable by the Koreans and the Chinese. And Japan was not willing to engage in currency warfare to protest its investment in manufacturing. Germany OTOH, had a major injestion of injuvenation through the merger of two Germanies. Plus Germany has been able to focus on high end only manufacturing, which is not easily copyable by the competitions.

Inflation targeting.

It will still water down the actual value of the Japanese people's retirement investment, which in effect discourage more spending and encourage more saving.

The delay is all but guaranteed now. The consumption tax is the third rail of Japanese politics so it's actually remarkable that the 8% hike happened without any real risk of severe damage to the Abe administration.

The consumption tax in Japan is like the lowest in the developed world and orthodox economics, backed up by tons of evidence, says that consumption tax hikes don't have a lasting impact on the economy. What Japan really needs is for incomes to rise because without that, you get this very strange result.

At this point nothing short of breaking the extremely homogeneous culture of Japan and going through a gender equality revolution can turn the ship in the right direction. Having an actual official army or being able to export military hardware is little potato compare to rest of Japan's issues.

 

[sprsk]

abenomics has just been a variation of reaganomics. an emphasis on supply-side in the hopes that companies will increase wages cause they are getting more cash. instead companies just accumulated more and sat on it because that increased revenue had nothing to do with an increased domestic demand. meanwhile the inflation made what wages the japanese were taking home worth less as real wages fell (in spite of abe promising a "wage surprise" more like surprise your money's worth less). then on top of that they throw in a consumption tax with an already weak domestic demand and boom recession.

this is not a surprise to anyone with common sense who thought about the actual consequences of these actions rather than just hoping doing something would work.

abe has done nothing to increase demand (where's that third arrow?). his priority is not to improve the economy (ask the middle and lower class if they feel any positive effects), it's to pretend he is so he acquires the political capital to enact his very unpopular far-right policies.

This is pretty much it in a nutshell. The only people that benefited from this own big companies.

 

[damisa]

Sure Japan's economy is in a recession
It's consumer confidence is decreasing
The wages are stagnating while prices are increasing
but
it's stock market has DOUBLED in the last 3 years

A lot of super rich people have gotten richer, and it's bound to trickle down any day now...annnyyyyy day now

 

[kess]

I think they are in dire need of an injection of high tech, high skill worker along with workers in the health care/service sector. However, their immigration policy won't change any time soon.

Germany has been declining in population for the last 10 years but there doesn't seem to be as much coverage of that in American media. I assume there are a lot of ways they could make their educational system more attractive to foreigners as the Germans have. Apparently higher education in Japan has gone through cost inflation similar to the US.

 

[Triplicates]

I think the real weakness of Japan's ecnomy in the 90s was that, it was built a foundation that was too easily copyable by the Koreans and the Chinese. And Japan was not willing to engage in currency warfare to protest its investment in manufacturing. Germany OTOH, had a major injestion of injuvenation through the merger of two Germanies. Plus Germany has been able to focus on high end only manufacturing, which is not easily copyable by the competitions.

I think that may be a contributing factor but again, deflation is the primary cause. That's really not up for debate; actually, if you control for deflation, size of the labour force etc., Japan's performance since the end of the bubble economy compares fairly well against its peers. One might even argue that Japan's decline in competitiveness, productivity in certain sectors are all outcomes of the deflationary trap.

It will still water down the actual value of the Japanese people's retirement investment, which in effect discourage more spending and encourage more saving.

Well, yes, the impact of inflation on the middle and lower class is precisely that it lowers their spending power, which is why the third arrow is so important, but it's wrong to say that inflation hurts spending. When you expect prices to rise, you buy now. This is even more true for companies who don't want to see their investments fall in value.

Inflation is also important for income. A big reason wages are and remain low is because Japan has gone through two decades of deflation. If the inflation target is met and sustained, wages will rise correspondingly. The lag we see right now is to be expected as wage increases are long-term commitments. Lowering salaries is a lot harder than raising them.

At this point nothing short of breaking the extremely homogeneous culture of Japan and going through a gender equality revolution can turn the ship in the right direction. Having an actual official army or being able to export military hardware is little potato compare to rest of Japan's issues.

That's a story for another day and I'm inclined to agree with you and Abe's detractors. But in terms of monetary policy, Kuroda's Bank of Japan is on the right path.

 

[googleplex]

Ahahaha at the notion that the Japanese are hungry for immigrants.

It's what they need, but not what they want.

 

[clav]

Actually it's been done in the past with Brazilian Japanese, which didn't go well at all.

Mass immigration is a very complex matter when talking about Japan which I've grown to learn while living here.

The Japanese don't even consider Okinawans as Japanese of the same class.

If you can't even treat neighbors the same (i.e. with respect), then you can imagine how much more difficult the immigration process (i.e.acceptance in culture) is to an absolute foreigner.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

The Japanese don't even consider Okinawans as Japanese of the same class.

Nonsense.

 

[clav]

Nonsense.

You don't think there are issues with the Ryukyuan people and the natives?

 

[hipbabboom]

Isn't Japan('s economy) desperate for young people and/or immigrants?

Mark my words... Japan will build a functional revenue generating slave class composed entirely of robots. You think I'm shitting you? Oh I'm not shitting you my friend!

 

[vpance]

Sure Japan's economy is in a recession
It's consumer confidence is decreasing
The wages are stagnating while prices are increasing
but
it's stock market has DOUBLED in the last 3 years

A lot of super rich people have gotten richer, and it's bound to trickle down any day now...annnyyyyy day now

It'll trickle. They're doubling the allocations of stock holdings in their 1.2 trillion dollar government pension fund for higher returns. QE takes a break in the US, QE shifts into high gear in Japan.

 

[lupinko]

Mark my words... Japan will build a functional revenue generating slave class composed entirely of robots. You think I'm shitting you? Oh I'm not shitting you my friend!

Pretty sure the U.S. is already ahead with that, though most of those robots are for military use. Lol

 

[Akainu]

I just happen to be reading akumetsu.

 

[hipbabboom]

Pretty sure the U.S. is already ahead with that, though most of those robots are for military use. Lol

US has a substantial slave class already... we don't need robot when we have the poor.

Spoiler

 

[rokkerkory]

Lower taxes and interest rates!!

 

[lupinko]

Yes bring back my 5% tax so I can buy WiiU and PS4 cheap.

8% is an outrage!

Spoiler

I came from 12% tax so 8 isn't a big deal.

 

[Jubern]

Yes bring back my 5% tax so I can buy WiiU and PS4 cheap.

8% is an outrage!

Spoiler

I came from 12% tax so 8 isn't a big deal.

I came from 20 but I feel like the benefits far outweighed the tax, which isn't really the case here.
Plus, whereas in other countries the VAT can be lower depending of what you buy, making the burden lesser, here you only get a 8% flat rate for everything.

 

[lupinko]

Abe to dissolve parliament on Friday.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/11/18/world/asia/japan-politics/index.html