June 2008 NPD Sales Data
- Thread starter EviLore
- Start date
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
dialmydrive said:
But it's not gaining market share. The graph is right there. It can only steal it from the 360 or Wii. It's not stealing from either. Its relative market-share with the 360 is increasing, but its relative market-share with the Wii is decreasing/stable, so no--it is not net gaining marketshare.
Wii's JPN tie ratio is bare-minimum 0.75 higher than PS3's in Japan.
Psychotext
Member
Your first mistake was trying to make sense of the post...Stumpokapow said:
dialmydrive
Member
Stumpokapow said:
are you basing this off media create's numbers? i recommend looking at famitsu's as well as shipment figures <to better determine future expectations>. it's hard to argue when you use m.c. whose low sample and bias don't paint the most accurate picture <imo>.
i would love to continue this debate but i have to get to work. like i said, let's see if the tides start turning in the coming months and where we stand at the end of the year. if wrong, i will stop listening to what's being described as "facts," ignoring analysts altogether.
Mgoblue201
Won't stop picking the right nation
I think it's close in the US. It's hard to tell since there were two versions of the 360 game, and one of them was probably floating just outside of the top ten during the October-December sales rush. I would approximate 360 sales at around 1.3-1.4 million by the end of last year. The Wii version was probably within 200k-400k. And of course the Wii version has been selling better since then. The extended user base of the Wii helped extend its life, and I'm sure Rock Band curbed some sales on the 360. The Wii version has also stayed on the UK charts while other versions have fallen off, but I'm not sure what difference that makes. The PS2, Wii, and 360 versions all have silver awards (I believe over 100k in sales), but none of them seem to have gold. There are too many factors in play to evaluate a clear leader unless actual sales figures have been released (I'm not aware of them).botticus said:
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
dialmydrive said:
I'm basing this off sellthrough numbers as compiled by Rock_Man, preferring Famitsu's to Media-Create's except when Media-Create provides more recent data, which is very rare.
Also LOL@trying to debunk M-C.
It's strange that your job allowed you to attend E3 to chat up Enterbrain analysts and even got you a pass to get in, but did not accord you a travel day on Friday to recuperate or present the information you gained there.
Starchasing
Member
Stumpokapow said:
ouch!
lol
Parmenides
Banned
dialmydrive said:
Japan
YTD (2008)
PSP 2,249,398 (+94.9%)
Wii 1,785,703 (-16.6%)
DS 1,709,615 (-59.9%)
PS3 578,135 (+11.4%)
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
irfan said:
There's no accurate number for this. donny's graph is probably the best bet which uses an estimation based on European shipments and sellthrough rates in the other two territories:
So that graph has actual NPD + actual JPN (not sure if donny's using MC or Enterbrain, but I'd guess Enterbrain) + estimates for "other".
Appreciate it.PS3 must be selling very well in Europe (and 360 not selling so well at all) if donny's YTD estimates are accurate. i.e. selling as much as NA+JPN combined. I make it that about 2.1-2.2m PS3s have been sold in the US+JPN sofar this year (~750k more than 360). So it would need to have sold..850k more than 360 in Europe alone.
I suppose it is possible, but it just initially struck me as a much larger gap than I'd expect.
I suppose it is possible, but it just initially struck me as a much larger gap than I'd expect.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
This extended talk of Japanese market share is really off topic, but
whichever you use, the results aren't drastically different.dialmydrive said:
Pureauthor
Member
zesty said:
GameFAQS, Something Awful's YCS, PA's GnT, GameSpot's System Wars...
Stumpokapow said:There's no accurate number for this. donny's graph is probably the best bet which uses an estimation based on European shipments and sellthrough rates in the other two territories:
So that graph has actual NPD + actual JPN (not sure if donny's using MC or Enterbrain, but I'd guess Enterbrain) + estimates for "other".
Next Milestone for the Wii is to top the HD userbase (combined)..
Any takers on when/if that will happen?
TomServo said:
Big selling games and hardware selling games don't necessarily always overlap, I guess is the lesson here.
Seemingly a large chunk of the GTA market had already invested in one of the HD consoles.
Presumably a bit more of the MGS4 market had yet to hop in.
This is why I'm more hopeful for fresh software to push out the boundaries a bit rather than existing stalwarts.
(That said come Xmas you'll probably have another bump of people buying a next-gen system for GTA or MGS4 or games like that..lots of people don't buy new systems mid-year, so those games will have a cumulative effect come the holidays when more people make that investment).
Mr. Wonderful
Member
It would take a few months for word to spread to such an effect. Most people don't watch E3. Most people don't know Final Fantasy is going to the 360 as well. A lot of people don't even care.Rapping Granny said:
Pureauthor
Member
Mr. Wonderful said:
I'm fairly certain that the people who would care are precisely the people that SE and Microsoft care about in turn.
Randy Lanzarote
Member
robotnik said:
donny2112 said:
Awwwww lame.... *hangs head in geek-shame*
I saw an explosion in the nacelle and my mind went straight to C&E. Completely forgot about the Enterp.... Odyssey being destroyed in DS9.
Hey Donny, where will we be able to find the prediction results?
Pureauthor
Member
indie85 said:
You're right. As soon as the Wii gets too near Hirai will press the 'Destroy World' button.
Seriously though - what?
NintendosBooger
Member
Nintendo's home console is number 1 in the USA without a single price drop and without doing the "additional colors" thing, a tactic that all but guarantees higher sales (e.g., DS and PSP). My God, they've yet to shoot their load, but when they do, it's going to be officially over.
Xisiqomelir
Member
TheRagnCajun said:
Umm, things don't become washes merely because of disputation. The accumulated sales data is concrete objective fact, so when one analysis takes that data set and runs away into lunacy (this would be dialmydrive's analysis, for those who demand total explication) it is rightfully derided.
Ryu1999 said:
He's right about the colors thing though. If and when the system ever slows down, the additional colors might just prop it right back up. Notice I said 'If and when the system ever slows down,' cause I still haven't seen anything to show that it's going to happen.
Pureauthor
Member
Just to put things in perspective, the DS has beaten the non-launch non-holiday sales record.
...
...
Winning the crown from it's little brother, the Wii, who beat the previous record in March.
Portables - YAY!
...
...
Winning the crown from it's little brother, the Wii, who beat the previous record in March.
Portables - YAY!
Count Dookkake
Member
killakiz said:
Which trends?
Wii wont keep this pace up, WiiWare fatigue WILL set in at some point, at any rate you wont see an increase in wii sales compared to the last 12 months from now on out. Totally different story for PS3 which is gaining momentum, and 360 will always have big months with games like gears 2.Wallach said:
The idea that Wii will outsell both the PS3 and 360 combined is laughable to anyone who considers future factors for growth.
indie85 said:
What 'future factors'? How about this factor: The Wii sells just under holiday levels every month of the year, whereas the other two require a huge, exclusive game to even come close to it and will sell mostly in the holidays. Even then, they likely won't outsell the Wii during the holidays by much, and that's only true if Nintendo stops increasing how many systems they produce.
The 'future factors' you're hinting at - what are they? 'Cause all the factors seem to point to the Wii making a clean sweep by the start of next year.
Starchasing
Member
Ryu1999 said:
Most people dont care about the HD machines...
but lots of people care for the wii but maybe dont want or can spend 250 dollars
maybe they could spend 200
but i have the feeling that wii will never see a price drop
Jaded Alyx
Member
indie85 said:
WiiWare fatigue?
The PS3 may be gaining momentum, but how much and how long will that last?
You say the 360 will have big months, but what's stopping the Wii from having big months when the pace does drop (whenever that is)?
charlequin
Banned
indie85 said:
So do you, like, not understand the basic arithmetic that shows that this will indeed happen within the next 12 months, or are you just, like, crossing your arms and sticking your tongue out from pure stubornness?
killakiz said:
In the US? Even if we take the most generous version of "current trends continue" (i.e. we spot the PS3 a free 200k sales every month due to magic pixie dust), they wouldn't intersect until March 2010 (treating Novembers as two months and Decembers as four.) When you take a more reasonable version (say, the PS3 continuing to outsell X360 each month by something like 50k, closer to what it did last month) it takes... too long to be relevant.
Pureauthor
Member
indie85 said:
Firstly you've no call to state that the Wii won't keep the pace up, especially not when a game like Wii Fit has just launched. ('Just' in the 'relative to legs' sense).
Secondly, I'm pretty sure WiiWare has very little to do with the Wii's success.
The PS3 is gaining momentum? Based on what? A single month in which the most hyped exclusive for the system has released? (Not to mention all the other stuff Sony did to make buying a PS3 as easy a decision as possible?) How about we wait for July's data before that, eh?
Of course, you could be referring to YoY growth. In which case the Wii's not faring noticeably worse.
The 360's biggest game month ever saw it knocked up like 300K and sales fell down to the same level as previous months before that. And Gears 2 is not as big as Halo 3.
Niche consoles catering to a specific subset of what is already a relatively small community, vs a console actively trying to capture all the demographics that hitherto have no played video games.
'Future factors for growth', indeed.
Pureauthor
Member
Wallach said:
Actually, a couple of good folks at PA's GnT have calculated a 2014 hostile takeover* from Sony.
*vs. the 360. The Wii sits on its throne and laughs.