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[Pureauthor]

What Phil Harrison was quite wisely doing over in Europe had very little to do with the completely different direction Kutaragi was taking the Playstation Brand in over in Japan, and it seems pretty likely that this disconnect had a lot to do with why Phil left Sony.

I still don't see how they could've possibly thought it was a good enough idea to go ahead with. Even assuming that they're separated enough from the public to be foggy on what it is they value in their interactive entertainment, isn't that precisely all those analysts and market research groups exist for?

The most basic preliminary research should have sent back, "No, this is not going to work. End of story."

 

[Gaborn]

i dont do ban bets

Then can you at least tell us whether you DO think it would be under 450k next month? or if you expect it to be over that number?

Edit: and he answered with a stealth edit.

 

[jibblypop]

These are not Nintendo 1st party titles that cater to small groups of people (Animal Crossing). These are fairly big name titles.

I bet every single game that I listed will break 1 Million copies sold.

Ok I have to stop you there... Animal Crossing appeals to a small group of people? It is one of the absolute biggest franchises in videogames today. That is a game that doesn't just sell 1 million... it sells millions and millions and millions.

 

[Sadist]

I wouldn't be surprised if Animal Crossing City Folk would reach 10 million sold...

 

[guina]

No MS PR yet?

 

[jay]

i dont do ban bets.

this is all besides the point anyway. I know its not going to sell 0, that's why i said its gonna sell 700k, cause i actually think it will sell around 700k.

I am not sure I understand your point then. I thought that your position was it has as likely a chance to sell 0 as 700k. How do you simultaneously believe that and think it'll sell around 700k? It seems like if the former were to be true you would be unable to make a guess on the number, but I may not understand you correctly.

 

[charlequin]

I still don't see how they could've possibly thought it was a good enough idea to go ahead with.

What? Five-hundred-ninety-nine-you-ess-dollars? That strikes me as a patch on an already-locked-in hardware design that was created without concern for budget, not a well-informed marketing decision.

 

[indie85]

Actually nothing, HD video (used to be split between HD-DVD and Blu-Ray) still only represents under 1% of the entire home video marketplace. It may move up to a bit higher than 1% but wont reach 2% this year

:lol :lol :lol

Let me quote a fellow soldier

Yes, Blu-Ray has a higher adoption rate than DVDs.

Still want to hold such an absurd stance on the future of blu-ray?

 

[Pureauthor]

What? Five-hundred-ninety-nine-you-ess-dollars? That strikes me as a patch on an already-locked-in hardware design that was created without concern for budget, not a well-informed marketing decision.

No, I meant pretty much the entirety of PS3 from the get-go. It was obvious that creating a high-end consumer electronic system would necessitate a high-end price, and that a high-end price would limit the customer pool, and that, in turn, would lower potential returns.

...Which is pretty much exactly what happened in the end.

Let me quote a fellow soldier

Yes, Blu-Ray has a higher adoption rate than DVDs.

Still want to hold such an absurd stance on the future of blu-ray?

First off, his statement had little to do with the future of Blu-Ray, unless the 'future' is limited to 5.5 months.

Secondly, an adoption rate is compared to equivalent points of the respective products lifetime on the market. People are taking to Blu-Ray faster than they are taking to DVDs when DVDs first came out - the problem is that DVDs took a really, really, really long time to become mainstream, and faster than 'really, really, really long' isn't saying much.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

People who don't know the first thing about sales, coming into sales threads, and arguing with seasoned sales-agers.

The human mind truly is a fascinating thing to behold.

 

[markatisu]

:lol :lol :lol , Still want to hold such an absurd stance on the future of blu-ray?

Why are you laughing, its the truth based on sales numbers of dvd's in comparison to higher def formats

The adoption rate is also skewed because PS3 does count in total blu-ray sales but not everyone who buys a PS3 buys Blu-Ray discs

See how that works? Under your logic UMD is a massive fucking success given 20 million consoles out there to play it :lol

 

[AlteredBeast]

Did anyone do a summary of everything not listed in the OP? Or did NPD get naziesque with the numbers again?

 

[onipex]

I wouldn't be surprised if Animal Crossing City Folk would reach 10 million sold...

Since you can trade data between the DS game I think that is a pretty good number. It gives those gamers more of a reason to get the Wii game.

Under your logic UMD is a massive fucking success given 20 million consoles out there to play it :lol

I'm so happy someone else said it.

 

[davepoobond]

I am not sure I understand your point then. I thought that your position was it has as likely a chance to sell 0 as 700k. How do you simultaneously believe that and think it'll sell around 700k? It seems like if the former were to be true you would be unable to make a guess on the number, but I may not understand you correctly.

what my point is is that console hardware sales are constantly selling to new people, not the same people over and over.

i was commenting on calling the current sales trend a "status quo" -- its not a status quo since 99% of console sales are to new people. You'd have a "status quo" if you kept selling the same item to the same people. I'm not saying that any of the consoles will sell 0 the next month, but who's to say if the potential userbase dries up all of a sudden?

 

[Jokeropia]

Wow, seems I spoke to soon. indie85 is putting up serious competition for the "dumbest poster in the thread" award.

 

[indie85]

Why are you laughing, its the truth based on sales numbers of dvd's in comparison to higher def formats

The adoption rate is also skewed because PS3 does count in total blu-ray sales but not everyone who buys a PS3 buys Blu-Ray discs

See how that works? Under your logic UMD is a massive fucking success given 20 million consoles out there to play it :lol

:lol :lol

I'll repeat, do you still hold the same stance on the future of blu-ray?

Edit: Jokeropia, ditto to you buddy, no need to resort to insults.

 

[jay]

People who don't know the first thing about sales, coming into sales threads, and arguing with seasoned sales-agers.

The human mind truly is a fascinating thing to behold.

Pretend you really like a console. And I mean really adore it. Now pretend it's losing to a system you hate, despite, loath. One that makes you post things like "I am ashamed to be a gamer."

Clearly facts are your enemy because the only way to argue your system is ready to become a breakout hit is by referring to "future factors." If you relied on understanding sales data you would be forced to concede that while nothing is impossible, the trends do not look good for your console.

The alternative method to defending your losing system is to mock everyone who understands and follows numbers.

 

[Starchasing]

You have to understand Sony's vision. Their goal with the Playstation brand was never anchored exclusively by the same passion for gaming as, say, Nintendo. It is the same reason why Microsoft was threatened by them, because they were both heading in the same direction -- that is, to develop an all-purpose computer and media hub and insert it into as many homes as possible. Hardcore gaming, casual gaming, Blu-ray, and all that junk are just means to an end.

But why? they knew by their own experience in Europe what the future was...

they just bet on the wrong trojan horse...

All they had to do was a casual friendly HD ps3 with a expansion bay ready for blu ray

 

[Pureauthor]

:lol :lol

I'll repeat, do you still hold the same stance on the future of blu-ray?

Given that his facts are based entirely on hard sales data, I'm gonna wing it here and go with 'yes'.

 

[jay]

what my point is is that console hardware sales are constantly selling to new people, not the same people over and over.

i was commenting on calling the current sales trend a "status quo" -- its not a status quo since 99% of console sales are to new people. You'd have a "status quo" if you kept selling the same item to the same people. I'm not saying that any of the consoles will sell 0 the next month, but who's to say if the potential userbase dries up all of a sudden?

I think this makes sense in theory but the same argument can be made about anything. The sales trends seem more reliable than assuming every month every console will have zero sales because everyone who wanted on has bought it. For whatever reason the status quo thing at least appears to exist.

I am actually amazed though with console sales in general. That they continue to sell month to month at such sustained rates is almost bizarre to me. So at least from a gut feeling perspective I completely know what you mean.

 

[Starchasing]

what my point is is that console hardware sales are constantly selling to new people, not the same people over and over.

You are in a strong need for Marketing 101

 

[BishopLamont]

Oh boy not just one poster but three dumb posters of the month this time! Congratulations to indie, davepoo and jeremy. You win the internetz!!!

Seriously everything points to the Wii being batshit insane in sales for a very long time. Doubting it taking over the PS3 and 360 worldwide anytime soon is absurb.

 

[Wallach]

Given that his facts are based entirely on hard sales data, I'm gonna wing it here and go with 'yes'.

Yeah, I'm not sure what indie is implying.

The future of Blu-Ray? Yeah, it looks pretty good. On the other hand, the "future" in this case is years out from being relevant, not months. It definitely won't hit mainstream adoption rates by the time the "console wars" of this generation are still very meaningful.

 

[wazoo]

AC, Wii sports2 and Wii music (the only unknown quantity) may be the biggest selling games of the next 12 months (provided Wii play stop selling, and Wii Fit too)

I had no idea. And City folk will have a bigger audience.

Wozzers...

 

[jjasper]

AC, Wii sports2 and Wii music (the only unknown quantity) may be the biggest selling games of the next 12 months (provided Wii play stop selling, and Wii Fit too)

Wii Play isn't going to stop selling. As long as it is $39 for a Wiimote and $49 for Wii Play+Wiimote it will continue to sell.

 

[jakncoke]

Oh boy not just one poster but three dumb posters of the month this time! Congratulations to indie, davepoo and jeremy, bloody-pirate. You win the internetz!!!

Seriously everything points to the Wii being batshit insane in sales for a very long time. Doubting it taking over the PS3 and 360 worldwide anytime soon is absurb.

boy yesterday was some day for bloody-pirate lots of dumb out of him and annoying to the max as well.

 

[Vinci]

:lol :lol

I'll repeat, do you still hold the same stance on the future of blu-ray?

Yeah, I think Blu-Ray will never reach anywhere approaching DVD levels; also, the only thing I'm uncertain of regarding its future is what will make it irrelevant (if DVD doesn't do it itself).

 

[Jokeropia]

:lol :lol

I'll repeat, do you still hold the same stance on the future of blu-ray?

Edit: Jokeropia, ditto to you buddy, no need to resort to insults.

Sorry, but when you're posting without even a hint of fact or reason there's not much to do but to point and laugh. Especially since other people have already debunked everything you said.

 

[Frillen]

I don't understand how Rickrollin gives you a 1 month ban but constantly trolling (Indie85) gives you nothing.

:lol :lol :lol at the moderators...

Fair and balanced,,, oh yeah...

However, it does spice up the thread

 

[polyh3dron]

Buying movies in 1080p that actually take advantage of your HDTV is something that'll never catch on, amirite?

 

[matmanx1]

Ugh, Nintendo already owns half the monthly NPD software sales charts. Just imagine what is going to happen when Animal Crossing Wii, Wii Sports Resort and Wii Music hits. We are looking at the very real possibility of an ALL NINTENDO dominated NPD chart in the not too distant future. Oh my...

 

[Arde5643]

I don't know if LBP has casual appeal or not. It appeals to me, certainly, but it's so unusual in presentation I wonder if it can succeed to broaden the PS3 base.

I feel it's a little like Katamari Damacy: A game that appears (to the "core") to be so simple that anyone over the age of 3 would understand and enjoy it, but in point of fact is so different from other game experiences, so alien to casual's expectations, its appeal is limited. KD overcame this with a budget price-point and tons of free marketing. LBP has the marketing but if Sony attempts to sell it at $60 I wonder how successful it can be.

Katamari Damacy was also on the most popular console at the mass price point instead of being one of the least popular and at the most expensive price.

I think it's going to be succesful as succesful niche PS3 games can be - it won't reach MGS4 level however, which is needed to boost hardware sales.

 

[indie85]

I don't understand how Rickrollin gives you a 1 month ban but constantly trolling (Indie85) gives you nothing.

:lol :lol :lol at the moderators...

Fair and balanced,,, oh yeah...

uhh,
Im not trolling
this is an NPD thread
Posters like omg rite get away with WAY more shit
Noone likes backseat modding so stfu

 

[Pureauthor]

Ugh, Nintendo already owns half the monthly NPD software sales charts. Just imagine what is going to happen when Animal Crossing Wii, Wii Sports Resort and Wii Music hits. We are looking at the very real possibility of an ALL NINTENDO dominated NPD chart in the not too distant future. Oh my...

We had all NDS charts in the MC threads before. Of course, those were weekly, but I'm not sure if that makes it a greater or lesser accomplishment. :lol

 

[Arde5643]

uhh,
Im not trolling
this is an NPD thread
Posters like omg rite get away with WAY more shit
Noone likes backseat modding so stfu

Being stupid, dumb, and obliviously ignorant should be considered trolling.

 

[Vinci]

We had all NDS charts in the MC threads before. Of course, those were weekly, but I'm not sure if that makes it a greater or lesser accomplishment. :lol

Let's say it happens: A clean Nintendo Top 10 in NPD. Would it really matter from our end? We'd still hear people spewing bullshit about how 3rd parties don't sell on the Wii. Hell, the fact that they'd all be Nintendo titles would just feed the nonsense.

EDIT: That said, I'm looking forward to Sony moving to a more 1st party focus. Then next generation, we can hear how only Sony software sells on Sony systems.

 

[Pureauthor]

Being stupid, dumb, and obliviously ignorant should be considered trolling.

No, being stupid, dumb, and obliviously ignorant is being stupid, dumb, and obliviously ignorant. Trolling is posting with the primary intention of pissing off other users.

 

[wazoo]

Ugh, Nintendo already owns half the monthly NPD software sales charts. Just imagine what is going to happen when Animal Crossing Wii, Wii Sports Resort and Wii Music hits. We are looking at the very real possibility of an ALL NINTENDO dominated NPD chart in the not too distant future. Oh my...

Reminds me of the glory days of Pokemon, where Blue/Red/Yellow had the top 3 spot. During those days, it was like some anomaly that would disappear once the Pokemon would be over.

 

[Riddick]

I don't understand how Rickrollin gives you a 1 month ban but constantly trolling (Indie85) gives you nothing.

:lol :lol :lol at the moderators...

Fair and balanced,,, oh yeah...

However, it does spice up the thread

Wow, seems I spoke to soon. indie85 is putting up serious competition for the "dumbest poster in the thread" award.

Being stupid, dumb, and obliviously ignorant should be considered trolling.

enough said about the real trolls

 

[Gaborn]

what my point is is that console hardware sales are constantly selling to new people, not the same people over and over.

i was commenting on calling the current sales trend a "status quo" -- its not a status quo since 99% of console sales are to new people. You'd have a "status quo" if you kept selling the same item to the same people. I'm not saying that any of the consoles will sell 0 the next month, but who's to say if the potential userbase dries up all of a sudden?

The problem with this argument is... obvious. First, you have to understand how sales work. When we say that Nintendo is selling what they ship at 700k, what we REALLY mean is something like an 85-95% sell through (give or take) and a certain portion NOT sold. Then you look at availability, that is, of the 5-15% or so of consoles not sold, how easy is it for someone to "walk right in and grab it" (like it was on launch day!!) there are several, mainly anecdotal ways to measure this. Anything from simply going to your local gaming stores and asking around (the Vinnk method if you will) to checking online retailers, ebay price, etc. What this won't tell you is actual monthly sales, it's not even particularly good for trends. What it DOES show is if there was a demand collapse because if there was and Wiis were widely available and not much demand there'd be a price collapse in markets like ebay and greater availability at online retailers.

Eventually, at some point you're right it may happen, but when it does we should see some obvious, quantifiable signs of it first.

 

[jay]

No, being stupid, dumb, and obliviously ignorant is being stupid, dumb, and obliviously ignorant. Trolling is posting with the primary intention of pissing off other users.

What about using the argument that the Wii will stop selling because people will realize it sucks?

 

[DarkMehm]

Actually nothing, HD video (used to be split between HD-DVD and Blu-Ray) still only represents under 1% of the entire home video marketplace. It may move up to a bit higher than 1% but wont reach 2% this year

5/4:

* DVD sales down 5.16% to $101.25m
* Blu-ray sales down 23.04% to $7.08m
* DVD 95% Blu-ray 5%
* ALTD: 94/6

5/11:

* DVD sales up 5.52% to $124.6m
* Blu-ray sales down 7.32% to $6.56m
* DVD 95% Blu-ray 5%
* ALTD: 94/6

5/18:

* DVD sales up 1.49% to $126.46m
* Blu-ray sales up 21.71% to $7.99m
* DVD 95% Blu-ray 5%
* ALTD: 94/6

5/25:

* DVD sales up 17.73% to $148.88m
* Blu-ray sales up 54.94% to $12.38m
* DVD 93% Blu-ray 7%
* ALTD: 94/6

6/1:

* DVD sales down 13.11% to $129.37m
* Blu-ray sales down 18.8% to $10.05m
* DVD 90% Blu-ray 10%
* ALTD: 93/7

6/8:

* DVD sales down 4.35% to $123.74m
* Blu-ray sales down 0.26% to $10.02m
* DVD 91% Blu-ray 9%
* ALTD: 93/7

6/15:

* DVD sales up 29.47% to $160.20m
* Blu-ray sales up 27.01% to $12.73m
* DVD 93% Blu-ray 7%
* ALTD: 93/7

6/22:

* DVD sales down 22.94% to $123.46m
* Blu-ray sales down 33.41% to $8.48m
* DVD 94% Blu-ray 6%
* ALTD: 93/7

6/29:

* DVD sales up 5.11% to $129.76m
* Blu-ray sales up 4.71% to $8.88m
* DVD 93% Blu-ray 7%
* ALTD: 93/7

7/6:

* DVD sales down 6.26% to $122.63m
* Blu-ray sales down 11.45% to $7.86m
* DVD 93% Blu-ray 7%
* ALTD: 93/7

source: Home Media Magazine

revenue is from the entire market. The first percentages are from the Top 20 and ALTD is the percentage from the revenue above.

 

[BishopLamont]

uhh,
Im not trolling
this is an NPD thread
Posters like omg rite get away with WAY more shit
Noone likes backseat modding so stfu

As dumb as you thinking "the Wii won't keep up this pace"? When it's been putting up insane numbers since it's launch, while the PS3 has been doing abysmal numbers and when it gets a decent bump from MGS4 that it's suppose to be momentum?

Oh boy just checked out your June NPD predictions.

[360] 85k
[NDS] 400k
[PS2] 180k
[PS3] 800k
[PSP] 450k
[WII] 600k

Haha, no wonder your bitter. 800k and 85k. Haha, even you knew the Wii would put up big numbers.

 

[Pureauthor]

What about using the argument that the Wii will stop selling because people will realize it sucks?

If he honestly believes that, then he's got issues. If he's posting to get a rise out of people, it's trolling. It's not my call to make, nor am I interested in making it.

 

[Jokeropia]

enough said about the real trolls

Actually if you look up the meaning of the words "dumb" and "ignorant" you'll see that they are quite apt. Don't blame me, blame Merriam-Webster.

 

[boiled goose]

Why did DVD take so long to become fully adopted?

Because switching is disliked, costs money, and you probably have to renew your collection.

Why did it eventually become adopted?

Because it is a very obviously superior format.

Lasts longer, better quality, better setup, smaller, etc, etc, etc


Can you argue the same for bluray?

Blu ray is higher definition + more space. More space is usually worthless except for movies who take up more than 1 DVD. (bonus features are worthless) Higher definition is good, but i dont think its a big enough factor now and probably will never be a huge deal.

Blu ray will never reach DVD status....its not big enough of a leap, DVD is too strong atm and DIGITAL DOWNLOADS are the future.

 

[BishopLamont]

Why did DVD take so long to become fully adopted?

Because switching is disliked, costs money, and you probably have to renew your collection.

Why did it eventually become adopted?

Because it is a very obviously superior format.

Lasts longer, better quality, better setup, smaller, etc, etc, etc


Can you argue the same for bluray?

Blu ray is higher definition + more space. More space is usually worthless except for movies who take up more than 1 DVD. (bonus features are worthless) Higher definition is good, but i dont think its a big enough factor now and probably will never be a huge deal.

Blu ray will never reach DVD status....its not big enough of a leap, DVD is too strong atm and DIGITAL DOWNLOADS are the future.

bu-bu-bu-but the adoption rates!!

 

[Riddick]

Actually if you look up the meaning of the words "dumb" and "ignorant" you'll see that they are quite apt. Don't blame me, blame Merriam-Webster.

I consider posts that are written only to insult a member as trolling. Maybe we have different standards for trolling.

 

[Mama Robotnik]

Damn bandwidth again. I should find a new host (if there indeed is one) as this is happening too often now. My apologies for the generic photobucket "bandwidth exceeded" images dotted on the pages.

 

[Arde5643]

bu-bu-bu-but the adoption rates!!

At this point I think the argument for adoption rates for BluRay is becoming the attach rate of the HD consoles.

I consider posts that are written only to insult a member as trolling. Maybe we have different standards for trolling.

I consider posts that actually lower my IQ to be trolling. Perhaps we do have different standards for trolling.