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[tusharngf]

• Sumco expects supply-demand imbalance to last five years
• Silicon wafer maker sees little room for factory expansion

Sumco Corp., a key supplier of silicon wafers for the semiconductor industry, said it has already sold out its production capacity through 2026, a sign shortages in the industry may not abate for years.

The Japanese company, one of a handful to provide the specialized silicon slabs that chipmakers use to create their designs, has orders to cover all output of its 300mm wafers for the next five years, it said after reporting earnings on Wednesday. It is not taking such long-term orders for 150mm and 200mm wafers, but demand is likely to keep surpassing supply for years to come, the company said. The price of wafers rose by 10% in 2021 over the previous year and Sumco expects to see increases continue until at least 2024.

Sumco shares surged as much as 11% in Tokyo on Thursday, their biggest intraday jump since March 2020, in the wake of the comments.

The company said it won’t be able to expand its production this year at all, despite strong demand from customers desperate for long-term supplies. It has already done what it can in terms of optimizing existing production lines, and its supply-demand imbalance is consistent across its full range of products.


Taiwan’s GlobalWafers Co. recently failed in its bid for regulatory approval of a $5 billion takeover of Germany’s Siltronic AG, a move that would have brought consolidation to this sector of the chip supply chain.

GlobalWafers to Reassess Strategy After Siltronic Deal Demise

Sumco made the comments Wednesday after reporting revenue and profit that beat analyst estimates. The company also forecasts sales and operating income for the first quarter ahead of projections.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ers-for-chips-says-it-s-sold-out-through-2026


CHIP shortage will last longer than we estimate!

 

[Thirty7ven]

edit: what does this mean for consoles? Do they supply wafers for console makers?

 

[kikkis]

Don't care, already have a xbox series x.

 

[Marvel]

Got both consoles lel.

 

[GymWolf]

More crossgen games, yay...

Only Loacher can save us.

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

This means nothing for consoles? For PS5 and Xbox Series what matters are 7nm.

I believe they referring to wafer diameter.

 

[Riky]

Mid gen refresh either much later or not at all then, this is going to be a long generation.

 

[LazyParrot]

This means nothing for consoles? For PS5 and Xbox Series what matters are 7nm.

Sorry to break it to you, but the size of the wafer does not determine the size of the node.

 

[Thirty7ven]

Sorry to break it to you, but the size of the wafer does not determine the size of the node.

I believe they referring to wafer diameter.

Dumb old me

 

[Elysion]

No Switch 2 until 2027 confirmed (I hope not).

 

[Coolwhhip]

Depending on a small amount of suppliers for any key products is something we should really sort out.

 

[Cyberpunkd]

Depending on a small amount of suppliers for any key products is something we should really sort out.

And yet before Covid nobody thought about it even given the constant push to IoT and putting chips everywhere.

 

[Hobbygaming]

Mid gen refresh either much later or not at all then, this is going to be a long generation.

I always thought once we got word of these shortages, that mid gen refreshes were out of the question.

I really don't believe there's a chance now for a PS5 Pro or a Series One X (lol)

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

Crypto is part of the problem… since gpus and ASICS pay for themselves it’s literally infinite demand to create infinite wealth.

 

[kingfey]

The main problem with chip shortages is the request method. You have to put order in for 2 years before. You cant request those orders fast. Then there is important sectors list. Gaming would be behind these sectors.

If this shortages gets dire, it might lead a boom in the cloud gaming market.

 

[ZehDon]

*hugs my RTX 3090 and Xbox Series X*

 

[Forsete]

Fix this shit Guerrilla!

I need a PS5 and a new GPU.

 

[AV]

Anyone else read water chips?

 

[Tiago Rodrigues]

Crypto is part of the problem… since gpus and ASICS pay for themselves it’s literally infinite demand to create infinite wealth.

I honestly don't think we're going for a lot more years before governments step in on that. Both in America, European Union, etc...but who knows...i've been saying that for years already, lmao.

 

[Sentenza]

edit: what does this mean for consoles? Do they supply wafers for console makers?

They supply wafers for pretty much ANYTHING on this planet.
The short of it: if it's electronics, it will probably be affected by this.

 

[ParaSeoul]

They're the second biggest maker of wafers,how bad is the situation with everyone else?

 

[rofif]

It's fucking sand

 

[Black_Stride]

Don't care, already have a xbox series x.

The Series XP will be in even shorter supply, nay....it will basically be a paper launch and only influencers and celebrities' will have it for months before the riots to get one really start when stores finally actually have stock.
And the Series XP can actually do Raytracing and 60fps at playable resolutions with AI upscaling while your puny Series X has to chose which features it can implement.

jk

 

[Haggard]

I honestly don't think we're going for a lot more years before governments step in on that. Both in America, European Union, etc...but who knows...i've been saying that for years already, lmao.

Not gonna happen. We´re talking about trillion dollar values by now.
Biiiig money with very...very rich people in the background. Aside from a few dictatorships barely anyone has the concentration of political power necessary to be able to just ignore that and say "fuck you".

 

[Sentenza]

Anyway, it's all sorts of crazy that someone at the top over the past years didn't see the potential issue with leaving few countries in Asia having essentially a complete monopoly of the WORLD's entire production of electronic chips.
And all of this concentrated in the hands of VERY few companies, on top of that.

 

[Deleted member 1159]

It's fucking sand

Well, apparently there’s a big market opportunity here for you, so get your dump truck and head to the beach and make your millions

 

[Tiago Rodrigues]

Not gonna happen. We´re talking about trillion dollar values by now.
Biiiig money with very...very rich people in the background. Aside from a few dictatorships barely anyone has the concentration of political power necessary to be able to just ignore that and say "fuck you".

That's...a good point.

We're doomed then.

Good thing i have a 2 year warranty + 3 year insurance for my PS5. So i'm safe until 2025 lmao. (although i wonder how long these consoles take to be replaced in case of a problem)

 

[DenchDeckard]

I honestly don't think we're going for a lot more years before governments step in on that. Both in America, European Union, etc...but who knows...i've been saying that for years already, lmao.

yup, I really hope governments step in soon. All these energy price increases and inflation, we need some action to be taken against mining. Just think how many gpus would suddenly floos the second hand market if the crypto bubble burst.

like it was already said, no way someone steps in…there’s too much money in it now. Greed strikes again in killing our planet.

 

[tusharngf]

That's...a good point.

We're doomed then.

Good thing i have a 2 year warranty + 3 year insurance for my PS5. So i'm safe until 2025 lmao. (although i wonder how long these consoles take to be replaced in case of a problem)

my friend got his ps5 replaced in 2 weeks.

 

[M1chl]

Crypto is part of the problem… since gpus and ASICS pay for themselves it’s literally infinite demand to create infinite wealth.

This is such a moot criticism, certainly those who are rich, does not mine at all, money are now mostly in dApps/web3 and ignoring how many people were buying IT product just to be able to keep themselves afloat in this pandemic have infinitely bigger impact than miners.

I hope that clear, that crypto challenges banks and stuff, probably down the line there would be push for some legislation in the west to prevent this. Nothing easier to make it out far bigger deal than it actually is. Besides you don't mine with your console, your phone, etc.

I wasn't ever aware of "manufacturing consent", but sure as hell I am now. And again the liberal politics, where the perpetrator is common joe, rather than someone with actual power is strong and well. I don't exactly understand that someone would look at near history events, they aftermath and said "yeah miners", especially when it's illegal in it's biggest bastion, China.

 

[rofif]

Well, apparently there’s a big market opportunity here for you, so get your dump truck and head to the beach and make your millions

What would I do with all this money. I already have a ps5 and 3080. Don't need anything else

 

[Deleted member 1159]

What would I do with all this money. I already have a ps5 and 3080. Don't need anything else

Buy more dump trucks and turn more sand into consoles for the kids. You’d be known as Sandta

 

[winjer]

This is such a moot criticism, certainly those who are rich, does not mine at all, money are now mostly in dApps/web3 and ignoring how many people were buying IT product just to be able to keep themselves afloat in this pandemic have infinitely bigger impact than miners.

I hope that clear, that crypto challenges banks and stuff, probably down the line there would be push for some legislation in the west to prevent this. Nothing easier to make it out far bigger deal than it actually is. Besides you don't mine with your console, your phone, etc.

I wasn't ever aware of "manufacturing consent", but sure as hell I am now. And again the liberal politics, where the perpetrator is common joe, rather than someone with actual power is strong and well. I don't exactly understand that someone would look at near history events, they aftermath and said "yeah miners", especially when it's illegal in it's biggest bastion, China.

This is the share of TSMC clients for TSMC 5nm. As you can see the share for mining Asics is as big as than the share for AMD and nVidia combined.
Then consider that a lot of GPUs from AMD and nVidia are going to miners. So this means even more chips wasted on mining.
Removing mining, would probably not solve the chip scarcity problems. But you can be sure it would make it a much smaller issue.

 

[tusharngf]

This is the share of TSMC clients for TSMC 5nm. As you can see the share for mining Asics is as big as than the share for AMD and nVidia combined.
Then consider that a lot of GPUs from AMD and nVidia are going to miners. So this means even more chips wasted on mining.
Removing mining, would probably not solve the chip scarcity problems. But you can be sure it would make it a much smaller issue.

fucking apple.. making the same shitty phones for the past 10yrs and doing this level of business.

 

[winjer]

fucking apple.. making the same shitty phones for the past 10yrs and doing this level of business.

They also help financing the development of every of TSMC's cutting edge node.
That's why they have an timed exclusivity deal with each node. Only after Apple, will other companies get access to the newer nodes.

 

[lh032]

Nice! more cross gen games!!!!

 

[M1chl]

This is the share of TSMC clients for TSMC 5nm. As you can see the share for mining Asics is as big as than the share for AMD and nVidia combined.
Then consider that a lot of GPUs from AMD and nVidia are going to miners. So this means even more chips wasted on mining.
Removing mining, would probably not solve the chip scarcity problems. But you can be sure it would make it a much smaller issue.

Maybe we should limit Apple then. Also nVidia is as far as I know doing their GPUs at Samsung's facilities and AMD have help from their Global Foundries. Again, I am not convinced. It says Crypto and others, not sure where is the automotive industry in here, because they also get shit done in TSMC (as well as others). So again pretty no. I just can't wrap my head around, imagine looking at the graph and saying crypto is the main problem, maybe if you wouldn't manufacture few % less iPhone chips? Maybe people would have their GPU

 

[asustitan]

Surely phone demand is going to drop? I used to always upgrade my phone yearly, but due to the performance gap being less, I'm using a 3 year old phone still

 

[winjer]

Maybe we should limit Apple then.

Apple makes real products. Unlike mining, that is basically a Ponzi scheme with a veneer of tech, to hide what it really is.
Besides, Apple paid for a big chunk of the development of 5nm process.

Also nVidia is as far as I know doing their GPUs at Samsung's facilities

This chart is for 5nm. Not for Samsung's 8nm.

and AMD have help from their Global Foundries.

GF doesn't belong to AMD. And it only produces nodes as low as 12nm.

Again, I am not convinced. It says Crypto and others, not sure where is the automotive industry in here, because they also get shit done in TSMC (as well as others). So again pretty no. I just can't wrap my head around, imagine looking at the graph and saying crypto is the main problem, maybe if you wouldn't manufacture few % less iPhone chips? Maybe people would have their GPU

Once again, that is for 5nm.
Chips for cars don't have to use cutting edge process nodes.
The reason it says "Crypto and others", is because the crypto part is the biggest.
If Autos was the biggest part, it would say "Autos and others".

 

[M1chl]

Apple makes real products. Unlike mining, that is basically a Ponzi scheme with a veneer of tech, to hide what it really is.
Besides, Apple paid for a big chunk of the development of 5nm process.



This chart is for 5nm. Not for Samsung's 8nm.



GF doesn't belong to AMD. And it only produces nodes as low as 12nm.



Once again, that is for 5nm.
Chips for cars don't have to use cutting edge process nodes.
The reason it says "Crypto and others", is because the crypto part is the biggest.
If Autos was the biggest part, it would say "Autos and others".

Ampere (microarchitecture) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

• TSMC's 7 nm FinFET process for A100
• Custom version of Samsung's 8 nm process (8N) for the GeForce 30 series[8]

So if it's for 5nm, then how it has any relevancy for current situation?

Global foundries are used for the current gen Ryzens and EPYC, not the CCX it self, but the "SOC". Radeons are not on 5nm yet. So...

 

[Bo_Hazem]

Maybe it's time for someone to step in and go to the next one? Carbon wafers?

Silicon Is Reaching Its Limits. Up Next: Carbon Nanotubes​

Silicon Is Reaching Its Limits. Up Next: Carbon Nanotubes

These tiny tubes of atomically thin carbon sheets are just nanometers in size, transport charge carriers very quickly, and are excellent semiconductors.

singularityhub.com

 

[winjer]

Ampere (microarchitecture) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

So if it's for 5nm, then how it has any relevancy for current situation?

Global foundries are used for the current gen Ryzens and EPYC, not the CCX it self, but the "SOC". Radeons are not on 5nm yet. So...

You are seriously outdated in your analysis.
Ampere is at an end. nVidia is starting production on Ada Lovelace, confirmed to be 5nm.
That is the near future.

 

[existensmaximum]

So we can expect very expensive computer components and severe supply constraint for consoles and other electronics for at least 5 years? Or even longer.

 

[M1chl]

You are seriously outdated in your analysis.
Ampere is at an end. nVidia is starting production on Ada Lovelace, confirmed to be 5nm.
That is the near future.

So, are we not talking about the current (and in near history) situation? If the situation gets even worse, not sure how, but if it does, I will eat my shit. But refuting my arguments, something which yet happened, is strange rebuttal

 

[LeftThumbstick]

I can see this being the longest console generation yet. I don’t think they will risk making a newer model when they can barely produce the current ones.

 

[vaibhavpisal]

PlayStation version of Series S could become a reality.

 

[KungFucius]

edit: what does this mean for consoles? Do they supply wafers for console makers?

It means every chip that is on 300mm wafers is constrained so the GPU/CPU/RAM/SSD/Wifi/BT basically everything except perhaps accelerometers and some power chips. But it also means those smaller wafer produced chips have no clue because they aren't talking orders.

 

[winjer]

So, are we not talking about the current (and in near history) situation? If the situation gets even worse, not sure how, but if it does, I will eat my shit. But refuting my arguments, something which yet happened, is strange rebuttal

You have to remember there is a period of lag, between a chip production and release to market. The 7nm gen is almost at an end for high end GPUs and CPUs.

I'm talking about the current situation. The chips that are being produced now to be released soon.
Ada Lovelace, Zen4 and RDNA3 are going to e released this year. So these products are close to tape out. Or maybe already in early production.

But you can be sure that 7nm has similar distributions of allocation.

 

[ToTTenTranz]

Sumco Corp., a key supplier of silicon wafers for the semiconductor industry

Nah, there are plenty of silicon wafer suppliers out there and Sumco seems to be only #9.

The fact that Mitsubishi / Sumco didn't find a way to ramp up production for the foreseeable future doesn't mean that others won't be able to do just that, or even that new players won't appear in the meanwhile.

 

[Punished Miku]

edit: what does this mean for consoles? Do they supply wafers for console makers?

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