I'm going with 50k-100k in Japan to start off with. I think it will have legs, but lack of franchise recognition should hurt. The real keys will be 1) will the multiplayer catch on and 2) will the card collection catch on.
yes
No Star Fox game since Star Fox 64 has broken a million copies. Even Zelda Spirit Tracks only sold something like 2 million copies globally.
All Star Fox games after 64 were shit with shitty multiplayer and Spirit Tracks was shit.