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[ResilientBanana]

Inflated prices are up, interest rates are up, and it seems everyone wants a house these days.

I’m starting to doubt that houses ever go back to pre-pandemic levels but how does this madness end?

Do you just need to “git gud” and save more hardcore to afford the higher prices? Start being ok with spending like 40% of your monthly income on housing? Get married for double income no kids (DINK) living? Or does everyone here already own a house?

We bit the bullet and paid more than we should have. Personally, I think the housing market will go back, but not until after another recession.

I used to build custom homes back in the day and owned a condo that I paid $103K on for it to drop in value to $45K. After waiting it out, I remodeled it and sold it for $85K but still had to pay $10K at signing.

I owned another house that I bought for $121k, which after 5 years sold for $185K. After that I bought a house for $325K got divorced and sold it for $350K.

Now I live in a better city in a smaller house that I paid $327K for. I’m hoping I break even but I feel like I’ll be living here a while when the market tanks and we start the process all over.

 

[Punished Miku]

We've been looking for 3 months but let our current loan approval lapse and decided to just wait. Getting stupid out there.

Personally, I don't think it's the same as the last housing bubble at all. People are changing careers, locations, and corporations are buying property like crazy, and we have a supply chain crisis on all materials, and a labor shortage, and a 10 year housing shortage. This reminds me more of the rush to buy privatized water than a housing bubble. But hey, if it bursts and prices return to normal that would be great and I'll be happy to be wrong.

 

[Kev Kev]

I'm depressed now. Thanks everyone. I was hoping to own a house by the time I was 40 but it's not looking like it's going to happen.

Lol same. what a downer

 

[Umbasaborne]

We are looking to buy now around central nj, its a real shite storm

 

[Ellery]

honestly not sure where all this money is coming from where people are rushing to pay 150% asking price for some already overpriced piece of shit.. just seems like everything going to fall apart soon

To put it in the most simple way possible : The FED (US central bank, but also most other central banks in the world) printed trillions, yes trillions, of dollars which entered circulation. It was given to people through stimulus checks, but most of it was to purchase bonds etc. from the government and the government used that money to do all sorts of things (way too much to start even beginning to list) which eventually enters circulation as well.

This money that was printed to bridge the COVID pandemic was so excessive that they created gigantic inflation, which is also fueled by supply chain issues and other geopolitical events, and here we are now with 8-10% inflation which is just the official number that is heavily skewed by weighing baskets in their favor so the public does not freak out. Nobody wants to hear that inflation is 15% and people lose purchasing power each year.

Because of this money that was poured into the system all companies starting making record profits and with the new money the companies could hire new people and offer them crazy salaries and those people also were invested in the stock market or other assets. Everything gained value and people used that money to buy things.

TL;DR : Money printing -> supply of money increased by trillions -> demand/supply is pretty simple to understand. Things spiraled out of control because a non government, non elected entity was allowed to dilute the money supply by trillions.

 

[Azzurri]

Prices are starting to cool down . Waiting for the perfect timing

Yup, I'm in the market right now and I get price drops from zillow all the time in the past week or so.

Trying to hold of for another few months.

 

[Von Hugh]

Luckily I was fast enough to buy an apartment 4 months before covid. Talk about timing.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Nobody knows what will happen but over time home prices have always gone up.

Every year for the past 30 years everyone thinks "it cant get more". But it does.

At some point there must be some max threshold where money taps out (even for rich people), but it keeps chugging.

If you can afford a place to own, I'd still look into it assuming you can float it without risk (you got a table job and money on the side in case something goes wrong). If youre not rich enough to ever afford a mortgage to own, then you got to rent or move to a super cheap city where everything is 50% or more cheaper. They are there, but up to you if you want to live and work there.

If you buy a home in the maritimes, it's literally 50% cheaper than Toronto. Even more if you compare rich to rich neighbourhoods.

 

[jason10mm]

To put it in the most simple way possible : The FED (US central bank, but also most other central banks in the world) printed trillions, yes trillions, of dollars which entered circulation. It was given to people through stimulus checks, but most of it was to purchase bonds etc. from the government and the government used that money to do all sorts of things (way too much to start even beginning to list) which eventually enters circulation as well.

This money that was printed to bridge the COVID pandemic was so excessive that they created gigantic inflation, which is also fueled by supply chain issues and other geopolitical events, and here we are now with 8-10% inflation which is just the official number that is heavily skewed by weighing baskets in their favor so the public does not freak out. Nobody wants to hear that inflation is 15% and people lose purchasing power each year.

Because of this money that was poured into the system all companies starting making record profits and with the new money the companies could hire new people and offer them crazy salaries and those people also were invested in the stock market or other assets. Everything gained value and people used that money to buy things.

TL;DR : Money printing -> supply of money increased by trillions -> demand/supply is pretty simple to understand. Things spiraled out of control because a non government, non elected entity was allowed to dilute the money supply by trillions.

Yup, and the spin that was put on all that spending to justify it and say that it WOULDN'T cause this very thing was dizzying. Everyone that said "hey now, maybe we shouldn't just dump trillions into the economy or maybe not lock down all our industries and starve them out" was shouted down and cancelled.

Oops. Then you add the great resignation or whatever on top of it and we have a worker shortage (at least in my industry and it is PROFOUND!) plus migration away from the coast due to telework and business relocations and it is a volatile cocktail.

Needless to say, glad I didn't just buy an overpriced hovel somewhat near the ocean in california, I feel like that's the place that gonna get hit the hardest. Beachfront itself is always safe (so long as it is beachFRONT and not underwater) but beach adjacent, over-valued, and in a local market losing workers is a dangerous place to be buying right now IMHO.

I feel like places like Detroit could really benefit from this and revitalize themselves if they can create a SAFE, business friendly environment to welcome industry and devs that can just level those abandoned neighborhoods and put in new stuff that is priced right for new family purchase. Right now those places are losing their lunch to the South, especially Texas I think, but that could be replicated elsewhere.

 

[Pagusas]

It is a bubble right now, BUT, if you look at housing charts like the one evilore posted, you'll see even after the bubble breaks, prices will never go back to what they were, a permanent 25%+ is going to be added to the market from this.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Yup, and the spin that was put on all that spending to justify it and say that it WOULDN'T cause this very thing was dizzying. Everyone that said "hey now, maybe we shouldn't just dump trillions into the economy or maybe not lock down all our industries and starve them out" was shouted down and cancelled.

Oops. Then you add the great resignation or whatever on top of it and we have a worker shortage (at least in my industry and it is PROFOUND!) plus migration away from the coast due to telework and business relocations and it is a volatile cocktail.

Needless to say, glad I didn't just buy an overpriced hovel somewhat near the ocean in california, I feel like that's the place that gonna get hit the hardest. Beachfront itself is always safe (so long as it is beachFRONT and not underwater) but beach adjacent, over-valued, and in a local market losing workers is a dangerous place to be buying right now IMHO.

I feel like places like Detroit could really benefit from this and revitalize themselves if they can create a SAFE, business friendly environment to welcome industry and devs that can just level those abandoned neighborhoods and put in new stuff that is priced right for new family purchase. Right now those places are losing their lunch to the South, especially Texas I think, but that could be replicated elsewhere.

For those of you in the hunt for a home and willing to wait it out assuming there will be a crash, and arent super picky where you live, keep on the look out for places with lots of vacation spots and summer homes.

In 2009, places like Florida and Arizona got hit hard with people dumping. A lot of people had to dump their second homes.

Waiting for prices to crash in NY probably wont lead to a lot. Ya, it'll drop but its not like a Manhatten condo will drop from $1.5M to $700k.

 

[Rival]

I bought my condo and refinanced at the right time. I won’t see another opportunity at 2.5% interest on a mortgage for many years if ever. No dickhead landlord will be raising rents on me. State of Illinois property taxes may be a different story but those have only gone up marginally over the 7 years I’ve been there. In fact because of my much lower interest rate than what my mortgage was locked in at originally my monthly payments are about $200 less per month than when I purchased in 2015.

 

[G-Bus]

honestly not sure where all this money is coming from where people are rushing to pay 150% asking price for some already overpriced piece of shit.. just seems like everything going to fall apart soon

Yup, my feelings exactly. Doesn't make sense at times.

Live in Vancouver, arguably one of the hottest markets in the world? Or so we're told.

If you don't already own before everything got rediculous (pre pandemic) I feel sorry for you. Without financial help from family I don't see how this craps possible. Even if you do own and want to upgrade it's a nightmare. It took my wife and I over a year to find something bigger. 2 kids and a couple dogs in a single floor 900/sqf rancher is a bit much.

Consistently outbid by 100, 200, 300K on a house that's already listed too high. A lot of these homes need serious renovations and upgrades. Not exactly "move in" ready. Never in my wildest dreams did I think I'd be making offers on houses million+. Blows my mind. Not even entirely the dollar amount but what your getting for that. It's garbage.

Soo happy to be out of the market now and don't have to think about this bullshit for a while.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Yup, my feelings exactly. Doesn't make sense at times.

Live in Vancouver, arguably one of the hottest markets in the world? Or so we're told.

If you don't already own before everything got rediculous (pre pandemic) I feel sorry for you. Without financial help from family I don't see how this craps possible. Even if you do own and want to upgrade it's a nightmare. It took my wife and I over a year to find something bigger. 2 kids and a couple dogs in a single floor 900/sqf rancher is a bit much.

Consistently outbid by 100, 200, 300K on a house that's already listed too high. A lot of these homes need serious renovations and upgrades. Not exactly "move in" ready. Never in my wildest dreams did I think I'd be making offers on houses million+. Blows my mind. Not even entirely the dollar amount but what your getting for that. It's garbage.

Soo happy to be out of the market now and don't have to think about this bullshit for a while.

Totally.

Real estate always trends up, but the past 10 years it got bad. Especially the past 5, in which it kept going even during covid when youd think people would be cautious with their money instead of bidding wars. But thats what you get with low interest rates and constant reminders rates are going up, so if youre going to buy, buy now. Pretty sure things finally cooled off the past few months as rates gone up, but still sky high.

Real estate is just one of those things where if you want to own, you got to just jump in. Trying to time the market is almost impossible because aside from someone getting lucky and buying a home during the global crisis for cheap from neighbourhood with foreclosures, I dont think there's been any big dips in decades. Its not like the stock market where a stock can swing 10 or 20% on a daily or weekly basis.

I bought my recent house in mid 2010s and at the time I thought things were sky high already. Now in 2022, its more than doubled. And the homeowner who bought it before me in the 2000s probably doubled his money thought it was high back then too so he moved and sold it to me. Who knew it'd double again.

 

[Deleted member 1159]

One other thing: senior leadership at my place of business expects a recession soon, and I’ve heard the same thing from friends and family at senior levels of major corporations. A friend at Adobe said they’re thinking it could be worse than 08.

Now, I don’t know about any specific predictions like that, but it seems to be the consensus that there will be a major correction soon. I think the best advice now is to pay off any outstanding debt you have and hold out for better prices. I really want a newer, bigger travel trailer right now but prices are still sky high from everyone getting one during the pandemic and subsequent supply chain issues. Given another year and people realize they can’t make payments on them anymore? That’s when I’ll probably buy a slightly used one for cash…assuming the recession doesn’t wipe me out too. But realistically, we could get by on my wife’s income alone and would still be very comfortable on just mine…so I’m not shitting my pants about any slowdown coming

 

[Punished Miku]

One other thing: senior leadership at my place of business expects a recession soon, and I’ve heard the same thing from friends and family at senior levels of major corporations. A friend at Adobe said they’re thinking it could be worse than 08.

Now, I don’t know about any specific predictions like that, but it seems to be the consensus that there will be a major correction soon. I think the best advice now is to pay off any outstanding debt you have and hold out for better prices. I really want a newer, bigger travel trailer right now but prices are still sky high from everyone getting one during the pandemic and subsequent supply chain issues. Given another year and people realize they can’t make payments on them anymore? That’s when I’ll probably buy a slightly used one for cash…assuming the recession doesn’t wipe me out too. But realistically, we could get by on my wife’s income alone and would still be very comfortable on just mine…so I’m not shitting my pants about any slowdown coming

My job is pretty much recession proof, so I guess that's a good thing for me. Mostly impacts any industry with fluctuating demand I guess.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

My job is pretty much recession proof, so I guess that's a good thing for me. Mostly impacts any industry with fluctuating demand I guess.

My job is too (I think).

Dont care if I get fired as I'd get a big severance package and I have enough money and assets to live off for a long time even if nobody ever hired me again. If desperate and down to my last dollars I could always just sell my house and find a place to rent or a cheaper place and bank the difference. People in my situation are the ones who could be living life as normal like nothing happened during covid or interest rate hikes.

But for people on the fringe of budgets, I'd say save. Only if you got enough buffer money on the side for emergencies should someone be buying a house. Even if someone can qualify for a mortgage and squeak by buying a place, if a 1% interest rate hike, a furnace or roof repair costing $5000 is going to make or break your finances, dont buy a house. And dont forget property tax. Depending the city's tax plan and how big of a place someone has, that could be anywhere from $2000-15000.

 

[EverydayBeast]

Houses are different than apartments or condos, they operate under different rules houses require extra work.

 

[MachRc]

My younger sister just bought her apartment..errr condo for 620k. She had to bid 20k over asking in late April 2022. I told her to wait two years until prices cool but, I got, " YoU'rE NeVeR HAPPY FOR Mee~H!"!!!!

My nextdoor app is full of people that are upset ADU have gone up in their hood...
as "investors", some foreign, are buying homes then building two story ADUs to house more people while destroying other's views and privacy since the laws have gotten so lax due to housing crisis.
My mainland Chinese neighbor went from growing weed in the garage(I smoke weed) to housing the Chinese communist army "students" on work visas.
They have 8 cars parked around the neighborhood, EIGHT, none in their driveway, and none in their garage as a someone that is in the Triads lives in there.

My neighbor up front, bought their home, no down VA loan, for double what I paid my home for(previous owner Mr Joe told me, he cashed the fuck out and retired to the desert), and now three families are living there, they atleast park four cars in driveway and two in front of their house.
Just this morning when I moved my trashcans since all these cars limit me from placing them in front of my own house they again had 2 trashcans, completely overflowing. This is every week..

zoomed from my nest doorbell camera

As you can see one of them, hit my mailbox. Atleast they left a note apologizing. Because I would have gone ape shit.




Even with all these stressful ass first world problems....
I am glad I dont have to deal with this crazy ass market and I feel so lucky that I have a roof over my head.
Jesus fuckign christ.

 

[jorgejjvr]

im in miami, so glad i bought 4 years ago

its impossible now

 

[Krafter]

We are looking to buy now around central nj, its a real shite storm

Good Luck man, central/southern NJ myself. I just sold my house a few months back, we had a few weekdays and then an open house with it on the market, had 27 offers out of about 45 people coming through. It was nuts, better than what I had hoped for by far.

 

[AJUMP23]

I think we are in a bubble. But I have 2 houses my primary and a rental. I am not letting go of either. I get offers every week on my rental for twice what I paid for it.

If you are a buyer be patient. Look and be ready to make an offer. You should have a down payment. And if you are trying to save for one keep working. If you have any other debts pay those off.

It is a tough market. I sold and bought a home last year. So I know.

 

[Lady Redfield]

My house went up by like 2,2x the amount in the last 6 years i believe. Before 2 people had to work to pay for it, now u need 4? its so stupid i have friends moving in with there parents again because they simple are not capable to buy anything.

I got lucky that i bought my house when the prices where still normal, but god dam the prices now are ridiculous.

It gets even worse when u have kids and no parents to take care of it, which one of my buddy's has which basically makes them sol directly.

One of the people running for election was on tv the other day discussing housing prices and even said the norm was to poke fun at people for living in their parent’s basement and now they really have no choice because housing isn’t affordable. Boy, have times changed.

 

[MachRc]

Look how well this aged back from 2006....Real-estate fucking Nostradamus shit
dude was only off + - a few years or so depending on market.

SO save up, or go FHA loan in 2026-2028, live in that for 2 years with PMI if you go FHA and sell that in 2030-2032 to move into a bigger home to sit on til 2036.
I still think we are headed for some crazy recession where, today its baby formula, tomorrow it will be some other major shortage, and eventually we will get to the meatflation/meat-pocalypse

 

[ReBurn]

I built my house just before the pandemic started. Quite roomy on 3 acres of land. They just started building a neighborhood down the road from me and are selling a single story 3 bedroom 1 bath model that's 10 feet from the house next to it on just enough land to fit the house for as much as I paid for my place. Twice as much as a house that size went for here 3 years ago.

This bubble can't last.

 

[Pagusas]

Look how well this aged back from 2006....Real-estate fucking Nostradamus shit
dude was only off + - a few years or so depending on market.

SO save up, or go FHA loan in 2026-2028, live in that for 2 years with PMI if you go FHA and sell that in 2030-2032 to move into a bigger home to sit on til 2036.
I still think we are headed for some crazy recession where, today its baby formula, tomorrow it will be some other major shortage, and eventually we will get to the meatflation/meat-pocalypse

yep! this is a cycle, and if you do it right you can set yourself up for success. i’ve hit successfully on all my real estate ventures so far, and will buy our 5th house sometime in 2026/28, with a plan for it to act as a retirement vehicle in the mid 2030’s.

 

[Umbasaborne]

Good Luck man, central/southern NJ myself. I just sold my house a few months back, we had a few weekdays and then an open house with it on the market, had 27 offers out of about 45 people coming through. It was nuts, better than what I had hoped for by far.

Yeah weve accepted that we wont get our first, 2nd, third, 4th, or 5th choices at this point. Me and my partner are first time home buyers so were learning a lot in this process.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Yeah weve accepted that we wont get our first, 2nd, third, 4th, or 5th choices at this point. Me and my partner are first time home buyers so were learning a lot in this process.

Nobody gets their first choice.

When I bought my first condo around 20 years ago, I didn't get what I wanted either. I settled for a small 1 bed/1 bath unit when I really wanted the more expensive units.

My most recent place I live in now is a detached house I bought in the mid 2010s. I had to pay like $80,000 over ask. All the other homes I liked more got bid up more so I signed the dotted line on this one even though the other homes were nicer. One house was bid I think $130,000 over ask and the sellers took the offer right away so they cancelled the weekend open house I was going to attend with my agent. So I didn't even get a chance to check it out or bid myself. I wouldnt have come close anyway. I got outbid on 3 other homes I made an offer on.

 

[Deleted member 1159]

yep! this is a cycle, and if you do it right you can set yourself up for success. i’ve hit successfully on all my real estate ventures so far, and will buy our 5th house sometime in 2026/28, with a plan for it to act as a retirement vehicle in the mid 2030’s.

This is partly why I’m not worried about the coming recession that people are predicting…I’m not selling my house any time soon so if the value drops, I don’t care. My sector is always in demand because people need healthcare, if anything procedures get delayed causing a slowdown but I work for a private firm and pretty much can’t get downsized

 

[Pagusas]

This is partly why I’m not worried about the coming recession that people are predicting…I’m not selling my house any time soon so if the value drops, I don’t care. My sector is always in demand because people need healthcare, if anything procedures get delayed causing a slowdown but I work for a private firm and pretty much can’t get downsized

same. my sector is pretty protected, and even if it weren’t I used the pandemic to pad savings and retirement, if the pandemic didn’t teach people to save/learn storms are unpredictable and to get yourself an umbrella for rainy days, I don’t think anything will.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

same. my sector is pretty protected, and even if it weren’t I used the pandemic to pad savings and retirement, if the pandemic didn’t teach people to save/learn storms are unpredictable and to get yourself an umbrella for rainy days, I don’t think anything will.

No doubt.

As crazy as it seems during covid, a lot of people were so pent up blowing their wad of cash, car sales and renovations were sky high. Those are big money kinds of expenditures.

If someone was to tell me at the start of covid, many people would be out of a job, working from home, and job security (even for people with good jobs) would be uncertain, you;d think people would be saving. And when covid blows over (like now), then go spend the money as things go back to normal. Yet a lot of people were buying shit like nothing happened.

Some people just cant save.

That's why governments mandated keeping pension deductions and payment back when youre a senior citizen. I believe a long time ago funds were originally forced upon due to needing money to pay for wars. But turns out they kept it as a small safety net because they noticed some idiots cant save a buck, so the government has to literally play monopoly money babysitter for grown adults, where they give you back your own money later in life.

Kind of reminds of Allen Iverson. I think it was him. Made shit loads of money as an athlete and through endorsements, but basically became broke. BUT lucky for him, I think his agent or lawyer put aside a bunch of his money into trusts for later in life because they knew he'd blow it all when all his earnings came to a stop when his career was over.

 

[teezzy]

have you guys considered smaller homes in lower income areas?

 

[jason10mm]

have you guys considered smaller homes in lower income areas?

Like.... a van down by the river?

Yeah, the American Dream right there

 

[Kagey K]

Bought and paid off my house. Don't give a fuck if it's value goes up or down.

Can't sell because I'll have to buy something else, so it's value is useless to me.

It's going to seem really big and empty once the kids move out though.

It's already really big for the 4 of us.

 

[Mossybrew]

Anywhere on the West Coast SUCKS even as a renter. I don't care about buying a fucking house that's an outdated concept but this shit is whack, I thought I was getting out of in from SoCal ten years ago but the Puget Sound in its entirety is just fucked. Rents have legit almost doubled in the last ten years.

 

[nush]

Bought and paid off my house. Don't give a fuck if it's value goes up or down.

Can't sell because I'll have to buy something else, so it's value is useless to me.

Exactly, the profit value only really matters if it's a second home. I could sell my penthouse but I'd have to downscale but what's the point other than having some cash in hand when I already outright own it with no mortgage.

 

[Kagey K]

Anywhere on the West Coast SUCKS even as a renter. I don't care about buying a fucking house that's an outdated concept but this shit is whack, I thought I was getting out of in from SoCal ten years ago but the Puget Sound in its entirety is just fucked. Rents have legit almost doubled in the last ten years.

You can thank all the companies that realized rentals are profitable.

The average consumer can't compete with investor money.

They have single handedly destroyed the market in the last few years.

 

[Kagey K]

Exactly, the profit value only really matters if it's a second home. I could sell my penthouse but I'd have to downscale but what's the point other than having some cash in hand when I already outright own it with no mortgage.

I guess it could matter also, if you bought a "starter home" with plans to sell it and move up, but you would have had to found the market where your home value went up and the one you really wanted stayed stagnant, which probably didn't happen.

For most people home value isn't intrinsic to weath, because selling one means buying another in a tough market.

 

[Deleted member 1159]

have you guys considered smaller homes in lower income areas?

Years ago my wife's cousin bought a house around the same time we did, in the same metro area. She bought hers in a part of town we'd never have considered, and we bought ours in a middle class neighborhood. She talked and talked about how her mortgage was a few hundred bucks a month cheaper than ours, etc...

Well in the first couple years she had the spare tire stolen off her truck, the catalytic converter cut off her truck, had three break ins including one where she was home and the dude tried to rape her before she fought him off with a knife, had a SWAT team move up her street with an APC...you know, normal ghetto shit. Our neighbors shoveled the snow for us if I slept in too late and we sold that house for a huge profit

 

[AJUMP23]

Years ago my wife's cousin bought a house around the same time we did, in the same metro area. She bought hers in a part of town we'd never have considered, and we bought ours in a middle class neighborhood. She talked and talked about how her mortgage was a few hundred bucks a month cheaper than ours, etc...

Well in the first couple years she had the spare tire stolen off her truck, the catalytic converter cut off her truck, had three break ins including one where she was home and the dude tried to rape her before she fought him off with a knife, had a SWAT team move up her street with an APC...you know, normal ghetto shit. Our neighbors shoveled the snow for us if I slept in too late and we sold that house for a huge profit

Picking a good neighborhood is important. I live out in the country now and I leave my keys in my car most of the time.

 

[Trogdor1123]

I’m in Alberta Canada right now and about to buy. It’s looking like the market is going to flatten here but not drop. Kinda crappy timing for me but I’m ok with it staying stable. Our market has been skew by Toronto and Vancouver so much I just don’t know what is real anymore.

Looking to spend about $500k which is a lot in our minds

Just need to sell my townhouse condo first

 

[Trogdor1123]

Picking a good neighborhood is important. I live out in the country now and I leave my keys in my car most of the time.

So true. We love our neighbours. Total trust with them. We have talked about moving to our next places side by side. They want to build a duplex with a shared yard.

It makes life so much better when you have great neighbours

 

[Havoc2049]

The housing market around me has been flat for the past quarter or so. I would even say it's starting to take a slight dip, as I'm seeing a few listings reduce their price by small incriments, like in the 5-20k range. There are also a few new listings that are crazy high, but I think the sellers are either tone deaf to the economic outlook and rising interest rates or fishing for a sucker.

 

[BattleMonkey]

It is a bubble right now, BUT, if you look at housing charts like the one evilore posted, you'll see even after the bubble breaks, prices will never go back to what they were, a permanent 25%+ is going to be added to the market from this.

That's not a bubble. A bubble is when you have a rise and the break causes a major fall. There is no incoming fall, and even with expected slowdown of the market, prices aren't going to be going down for a long time, and even in many cases and areas, prices will keep going up because the demand is insane in many regions. People still need a place to live and markets in demand for housing aren't going to see relief any time soon. Even with slowing down sales many of these markets will be still commanding high prices and dealing with continued competition cause folks want to move to the area.

There is no actual bubble, this is just a new norm as there is no bubble to burst.

 

[Pagusas]

That's not a bubble. A bubble is when you have a rise and the break causes a major fall. There is no incoming fall, and even with expected slowdown of the market, prices aren't going to be going down for a long time, and even in many cases and areas, prices will keep going up because the demand is insane in many regions. People still need a place to live and markets in demand for housing aren't going to see relief any time soon. Even with slowing down sales many of these markets will be still commanding high prices and dealing with continued competition cause folks want to move to the area.

There is no actual bubble, this is just a new norm as there is no bubble to bur

do you feel 2006 wasn’t a bubble either?

 

[BattleMonkey]

do you feel 2006 wasn’t a bubble either?

2006 was absolutely nothing like this. That was the definition of a bubble, a build up that everyone saw coming and expected a huge crash. None of the factors that played into that crisis is in play here and there is no solution to the current situation that doesn't involve years of adjustments. You can't have a bubble without the pop, and there will be no pop here. There will be no crash or explosion to come, things will simply plateau and depending on market there will be slight trends downwards while others will still be fighting and going upwards.

The major problem here is inventory, and that is not going to get fixed without years of changes and in many areas in high demand they are at essentially housing capacity. South FL for example is a huge market that just keeps going up and they have a serious problem with inventory and that they don't really have land to build new houses. Yet it's an area in demand as so many have been moving to the area. Only some areas of the US will see improvements but it's not going to be a cascade of prices as now the other new problem emerging is folks who can and willing are buying up in cheaper areas, dumping their expensive area homes and upgrading when possible. The places prices will drop hard are those already cheaper than the rest of the US.

Folks comparing it to what lead to 2006 keep missing the main factor which is the whole problem revolves around supply. Supply was not the problem in 2006.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

That's not a bubble. A bubble is when you have a rise and the break causes a major fall. There is no incoming fall, and even with expected slowdown of the market, prices aren't going to be going down for a long time, and even in many cases and areas, prices will keep going up because the demand is insane in many regions. People still need a place to live and markets in demand for housing aren't going to see relief any time soon. Even with slowing down sales many of these markets will be still commanding high prices and dealing with continued competition cause folks want to move to the area.

There is no actual bubble, this is just a new norm as there is no bubble to burst.

Yup.

Even during the 2008/09 crisis, only some areas got hit hard. Any area that had lots of vacation sports and summer homes seemed to get the hardest hit. Toronto barely budged. I googled it and it supports what I thought. It dropped 3-10% pending which class of home built. I bet the prices rebounded the next year. People's stock portfolios took a hit (mine did like everyone else), but nobody was panicking about dumping their house for 40% off.

Canada's Housing Market Crash History

Looking back on historical crashes in Canada's housing market.

www.readthepeak.com

New York City dropped about 12%. And rebounded a few years later.

How recessions impact Manhattan property - Weimin Tan Blog

Looks at how the Covid-19, Lehman and Sept 11 recessions impacted Manhattan property, and why is Manhattan so resilient.

www.castle-avenue.com

What really caused panic were all those news stories you read about where new developments bought by first time home buyers with zero experience got caught in weird mortgages and got foreclosed fast. Or summer homes in Arizona where people were dumping them and you could score a home for 50% off.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

I’m in Alberta Canada right now and about to buy. It’s looking like the market is going to flatten here but not drop. Kinda crappy timing for me but I’m ok with it staying stable. Our market has been skew by Toronto and Vancouver so much I just don’t know what is real anymore.

Looking to spend about $500k which is a lot in our minds

Just need to sell my townhouse condo first

So true. We love our neighbours. Total trust with them. We have talked about moving to our next places side by side. They want to build a duplex with a shared yard.

It makes life so much better when you have great neighbours

If the price is manageable and the location is good, I'd reco not being too timid buying a place assuming you can afford it. This is especially for places you'll live in for a long time. Don't get swayed by big swings because if you're going to live there for 10 years, piece of mind and quality of life is more important than edging out maximum profit and home appreciation on day one as if you got in at the bottom. In the long run, prices always go up.

Put it this way, if you've been trying to perfectly time the market buying a home at the most rock bottom price the past 30 years good luck. Canada didnt even have wild swings like the US did in 2008 and 2009. So playing the waiting game is likely a losing cause unless you get lucky timing it right. Lots out people get priced of the market waiting years for that gigantic downturn, which never happens in Canada for decades. Prices spiked a lot during covid. Anyone who played the waiting game in 2019 or at the breach of covid in Mar 2020 assuming prices would go down the drain is probably hit with home prices 25% more than 2-3 years ago. Waited too long.

Buying a home to live is to me is like buying a car. You got to just bite the bullet if you are itching to buy. Of course a car coming out next year or the following year, or the remodel coming 3 years from now will be better cars with better tech and HP, but if someone is really begging to change, cant wait forever. But at least with cars, prices might not budge a lot and you can always just drive your car into the ground. But homes can fluctuate a lot. So the urgency is likely more heated.

If you are an investor it's a totally different tactic what to do. It's all about money and finding a good tenant.

 

[chromhound]

Dummy lol

 

[Cyberpunkd]

Do you just need to “git gud” and save more hardcore to afford the higher prices? Start being ok with spending like 40% of your monthly income on housing? Get married for double income no kids (DINK) living? Or does everyone here already own a house?

Yes, or have rich parents. To give you an idea an apartment in central Paris 60m2 will require two people well off to take a credit for 20 years.