Limited Run Games - Putting digital games into your hands
- Thread starter dallow_bg
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The thing is, foobarry has a point. I know you are excited about having a guarantee (insurance) that you will get your copy, basing number of printed copies on subscriptions is not a wise move.
I first want to say I probably would subscribe, as I buy most LRG releases so the $30 would benefit me.
LRG indicated "we can poll subscribers to get an idea how many copies to print". I still think that's a bad idea.
Polls can be a dangerous thing. What one person may want one day, they may not want another.
"Heck yes, I want Shadow Complex!" Hits 'Will buy' on poll. Then, after reading more about the game and not liking what they see, or something happens financially in a negative sense, they decide 'not' to purchase Shadow Complex.
So then LRG is stuck with an extra copy. Yes, that's only one, but it is something that could likely happen many times.
Also, what if a subscriber doesn't poll, but they do want the game? Are less copies printed because they couldn't/didn't poll?
However, LRG has to make sure enough copies are printed to cover all subscribers if they do decide they want that copy, but they didn't poll. To me, it just sounds like more risk and headache than needed for LRG.
That does seem very likely to happen. It'd be like the "where is my tie" situation, times a thousand.
foobarry81
Member
There are just so many factors that can influence demand over the course of a year.
E.g. LRG releases 2-3 games in a row that are generally considered not to be all that good. People start questioning whether they should continue buying each new release. Scalpers may lose interest because they see profits go down. They may be a lot, but one thing scalpers aren't is loyal.
Then what to do with the next game? Keep up the high print numbers based on your subscription numbers, or lower them because your latest release didn't do as good?
Also, what if the whole LRG thing is a bit of a fad? Not saying it is, but let's suppose for a moment it turns out that way. Right now it's still all new and exciting. But if people lose interest over time and sales figures gradually go down because the novelty wore off, then what good are subscription numbers? It's not because people have paid $30 once that means they'll keep buying your stuff.
It'd be: "Where's my $30 tie?!?!" ;-)
E.g. LRG releases 2-3 games in a row that are generally considered not to be all that good. People start questioning whether they should continue buying each new release. Scalpers may lose interest because they see profits go down. They may be a lot, but one thing scalpers aren't is loyal.
Then what to do with the next game? Keep up the high print numbers based on your subscription numbers, or lower them because your latest release didn't do as good?
Also, what if the whole LRG thing is a bit of a fad? Not saying it is, but let's suppose for a moment it turns out that way. Right now it's still all new and exciting. But if people lose interest over time and sales figures gradually go down because the novelty wore off, then what good are subscription numbers? It's not because people have paid $30 once that means they'll keep buying your stuff.
It'd be: "Where's my $30 tie?!?!" ;-)
goldenpp72
Member
Yeah i'd love to pay an extra 200-300 a year for nothing.
NinjamicWZ
Banned
"Another shitty indie game? Another Vita game? I'm not paying $30 a year for this. Moar like Limited Run Has No Games amirite? This is why I'm digital only. No loose discs."
Good God man, stop focusing on strictly the subscription and ignoring the polling, it works together. They said they would poll members for intent to buy. A yes gets you a copy, a no or lack of a response would mean you were not guaranteed. It's no different than using pre-orders to gauge interest. Pre-orders can be canceled up to release too. It's a far better way to help determine interest than what is currently in place and can work just as well as other methods like pre-orders. It's not a requirement to buy their games, it's not intended for every customer, it's an option. It would have helped better predict needed volumes for their last release, or at least made many complaints lose legitimacy, because as it stand right now, it's a crapshoot. You are never going to be able to please everyone, but working to remove reasonable complaints is a good thing.
All of the possible future outcomes you're detailing can happen with or without a subscription. This is a step in the right direction, because leaving things like they currently are is unsatisfactory to quite a few people.
Not exactly, since your subscription is a service to allow early access, you're not buying a product itself. You'd be paying for the administration of member services. If you're not ok with that, you shouldn't subscribe.
The only legitimate complaint would be if you're not being polled and allowed an early guarantee of a copy.
foobarry81
Member
A poll! Another highly reliable piece of data, lol.
I recommend you ask Victor Ireland of Gaijinworks, who's worked with polls for his last 2 releases, about the outcome of polls.
Lots of people expressing intent, it's easy to do so without committing. Which they end up not doing. People love to troll polls too apparently.
Yes, let's do a poll!
not
It's not that kind of 'pre-order' I was talking about. It's the kind where you commit to buying and just have to wait a little longer to get your product.
People who want a guaranteed copy would pay a bit more ahead of the release date. If you have those sales locked down, you have a much more accurate idea of how popular the upcoming 'open' sale is going to be.
Again, let's suppose that they had opened up the subscription thing early July. And people were aware Söldner was coming. So you'd probably be getting quite a bit of subscriptions in. What does that mean for B&C Deadline which releases on the same day though? How do subscription numbers tell you .... anything ... at... all.... about who of your subscribers want Söldner and who wants Deadline? How do you decide how many copies of Deadline you're going to print?
Oh, right... you were going to do a poll! Lol! But then what are the subscription numbers good for? What do you even need them for? What do they tell you more than the poll already does?
Why not just do polls then, so that you have enough copies at all time. And don't needlessly charge your customers extra?
I think the apparent poorly functioning of the store right now is a whole lot less satisfactory from a customer perspective (and this is coming from someone who's never had any problems with the store). If people are right there on time and fail to get what they want because the damn thing doesn't work properly, that is a bigger problem. But that doesn't seem to be a priority.
Reluctant-Hero
Member
Count me in for this membership.
If I'm guaranteed a single copy of every Vita release for a small annual fee, I'm down. I cut it way too close on Friday. I think it it wasn't for the B&C bundle as a distraction to some of the other 12,000 site visitors, I wouldn't have secured my copy of Söldner.
If I'm guaranteed a single copy of every Vita release for a small annual fee, I'm down. I cut it way too close on Friday. I think it it wasn't for the B&C bundle as a distraction to some of the other 12,000 site visitors, I wouldn't have secured my copy of Söldner.
otaku-asia
Member
I think the membership is not a bad idea. $30 really isn't a lot of money, especially if you plan to purchase every game. It basically adds $1 on top of each game and you still receive some free perks. Count me in.
You've said yourself that polls open to every random internet guy have low correlation to eventual sales (ask Vic, right?) A subscription is the gate to the poll. It requires that you have a more vested interest in the outcome. It limits the poll to the people that are far more likely to actually buy something. And it would give you a better indication of demand than you're willing to concede. A poll would have more likely than not, shown an increased interest in Soldner than in Deadline, but since neither of us can prove it either way, there's no point in debating it unless LRG goes for it and feels like sharing any data.
Any of our feelings on pre-orders aren't relevant, since they've repeatedly said it's not happening. I'll take whatever improvement I can get. I'm not opposed to any suggestions of any kind of pre-order scheme. I'm for any method that will secure a copy without the stress and this will provide that. I don't care if it's perfect, it's better than what is available now.
foobarry81
Member
Simple counter example:
- guy pays for subscription because he wants to avoid potentially missing out on any unknown future release he really wants.
- receives poll about game he never heard of before (e.g. Lost Sea)
- says he will buy it in poll. Googles it, doesn't find a whole lot on it.
- learns more about game closer to release, doesn't seem as appealing
- other reasons not to buy it (e.g. money is tight by the end of the month, unexpected costs, not able to order on release day due to work/family, forgets about it, ...) pop up
- guy doesn't buy game.
This is not a hypothetical example. It's stuff that happens all the time, and to a lot of people. And it's a process that repeats itself with every single release, months after a subscription fee was paid.
Doesn't even have to be about an unknown game. People change their minds at any time for whatever reason, whether they paid for a subscription or not.
I don't have any feelings towards pre-orders. You keep reading things that aren't there. I'm saying that the thought process I proposed gives you a much better indication of demand than vague "intent-of-purchase" based data that a subscription service or a poll gives you. It's a comparison on my part between 2 ways of trying to estimate demand: one way that is not very good, another that is better.
The one who lets his feelings have the better of him in this debate is you. You fear missing out on releases, so you are willing to pony up the money regardless. And that is perfectly fine and up to you. But please stop trying to justify your decision by drawing any further conclusions about the validity towards demand any numbers on a subscription service or a poll would provide. They do not give you an accurate estimate of the print number needed for any particular release.
I'll give you another example:
- LRG has 500 subscribers.
- LRG announces Yakuza 5 (fictional example, but it's not impossible they would manage to sign a similarly big name down the line)
- 450 out of 500 subscribers say they want Yakuza 5 in poll
What do these combined subscription service + poll numbers tell you? That you will need 500 copies. Now... what does your gut feeling tell you about the copies needed for Yakuza 5 LRG release? Do you get where this is going?
Now, at this point a lot is going to depend on whether you leave the subcription service open to new people at any time. If you do so, you'll have people who will subscribe, and pay the extra $30 just to ensure they get that Yakuza 5 copy, and then potentially be done with LRG for any of the following releases.
Which leads to another bias, namely you'll have WAY more subscribers for the next year than people with intent to purchase any of your releases.
Anyway, you have all these new Yakuza 5 subscribers, but when do you ask them if they have any intent on buying Yakuza 5? You need to do that poll for "accurate" (lol) information, remember? When do you do that Yakuza 5 poll? If subscription to the service is open at all times, people will wait until the very last moment to subscribe, pay the extra $30, then snag that copy of Yakuza. So you won't know their intention to buy until the very last moment.
This will again result in you not being able to accurately estimate demand.
LRG has said on twitter that they're not going to make the subscription model at least as we know it.
I would love to see some horror games go into physical(it will also help to get more variety of games), outlast 1 and dlc(and 2), layers of fear and soma deserve a physical edition without any doubt.
Also as I asked long ago a psn classics will be great, for example seeing a vita edition of ff vii on vita for example, rogue galaxy for ps4 and thousands of examples.
I would love to see some horror games go into physical(it will also help to get more variety of games), outlast 1 and dlc(and 2), layers of fear and soma deserve a physical edition without any doubt.
Also as I asked long ago a psn classics will be great, for example seeing a vita edition of ff vii on vita for example, rogue galaxy for ps4 and thousands of examples.
YianGaruga
Banned
With "subscription" they're talking about a model where you're automatically getting every game. Not what were discussing right now, which theyre calling "membership" iirc.
I'd gladly pay up to $100 a year for a membership where I'm allowed to preorder up to the max limit for each game, or with a limit of one copy per game and the possibility to do combined shipping. Haven't slept at all tonight so I hope I make sense.
edit: what I'm trying to say is that I'm not very fond of only limiting the preorder to one copy per game - the shipping ain't cheap to europe.
edit: what I'm trying to say is that I'm not very fond of only limiting the preorder to one copy per game - the shipping ain't cheap to europe.
Yeah but Josh also said this:
https://twitter.com/LimitedRunJosh/status/760292527434035201
So we don't know until something is set on stone,right now they are also seeing/talking about different alternatives.
In order:
1: Yes it is hypothetical, as are pretty much all of the examples you're giving.
2: If by debate, you mean pulling the most hypothetical examples out of your arse, yes you are dominating.
3&4: I have said more than once it is not perfect, so I guess I'm not the only one reading more than is there. I have said it is better than what is currently employed and is a better gauge of demand than what is being used now, which isn't much other than apparently basing it off of previous sales numbers with no regard to the title at hand.
foobarry81
Member
It is not "better" if it's based on silly assumptions. Just because you pile up some more irrelevant data (which is pretty much your entire "plan") doesn't mean you are suddenly better informed. If you base a decision on pointless data, it's just as much your gut feeling deciding, than when you have no data at all.
Unlike me, you're not even trying to illustrate how your supposed system of membership and polls is presumably going to work. Clearly because you haven't given it much thought. I do hope LRG are not as lazy and do actually consider things a bit more carefully and thoroughly.
If only you understood how debating works, lol. I didn't get a single counter argument from you on the arguments I proposed, like at all. Probably because you don't have any. Saying that the arguments the other party gave are all hypothetical, is not really a counter argument, btw. Especially when you didn't bring any solid data to the table yourself. It's just a lame attempt at a way out of a debate without losing face. Everything you apparently don't have a way round (all the stuff I wrote that you didn't quote in your last post), you simply ignored. Another classic strategy.
A counter argument, for your information, consists of a logical explanation (meaning you use logic to back up what you're claiming) and if possible you back that up with empirical evidence.
So if you disagree with me, please tell me why you think the examples I brought up are not valid and have no bearing with actual real life.
I find myself in the same position that Hawk did, it's just taking me longer to reach the same conclusion.
You concede no value to polling, a long accepted way of gauging intent. It is not always precise and always has a degree of variance, but it is not irrelevant data just because you decree it.
Asking 1000 random strangers if they will buy your next game, not super meaningful. Asking 1000 paid subscribers, far more meaningful, as targeted Polling tends to be.
Polling intent has long been used by companies, governments, schools, etc. I'm not here to prove the usefulness of something that already has a proven use.
foobarry81
Member
Honestly, I feel like I'm talking to a 14-yo who has never had any tuition in statistics, economy and a whole lot more.
There is value in polling for some issues, but not for this particular problem right here. Not if you want to estimate demand as accurately as LRG needs it to be.
They don't want to get stuck with even a couple of hundred copies just because polling told them they needed a couple hundred more than it turned out to be. Stock needs to move fast for them. They need the money to fund the next project within days.
And at the same time if they are too conservative in their estimates, they get a lot of backlash and angry customers. There is very little room for error.
Polling is used everywhere, sure. But even exit polls of elections aren't always all that accurate. And that is AFTER people have casted their vote. It's not even polling a very vague concept such as "intent" anymore. It happens after the facts.
I suggest you read up on it, you might learn a thing or two in the process (note how the example at the link is about people who voted, meaning they took part in an activity, just like subscribers to LRG membership would do. "Targeted polling", wasn't it?): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exit_poll#Problems
So yeah, I don't have to "concede" anything, because you can't even get your facts straight.
Edit: I'm going to ask you the same question again, the one you ignored before. It's not just a hypothetical example. It's a puzzle that needs solving and where you haven't provided a satisfying solution for yet.
I'll give you another example:
- LRG has 500 subscribers.
- LRG announces Yakuza 5 (fictional example, but it's not impossible they would manage to sign a similarly big name down the line)
- 450 out of 500 subscribers say they want Yakuza 5 in poll
What do these combined subscription service + poll numbers tell you? That you will need 500 copies. Now... what does your gut feeling tell you about the copies needed for Yakuza 5 LRG release? Do you get where this is going?
Tell me: how would you solve this with your polling?
Hey, we actually can relate to something and have found common ground after all.
YianGaruga
Banned
no one in statistics ever uses polls, that's crazy talk
foobary just wants you to tell him that he's right, let's do that and move one, it's getting really stupid
foobary just wants you to tell him that he's right, let's do that and move one, it's getting really stupid
Reluctant-Hero
Member
Peeps, chill. Move on. We have no "skin" in LRG's business model. Trust them to make the right decision for their business.
What this would tell me is that I have an obligation to produce at least 500 to meet my subscriber demands. It tells me that whatever method I am using to forecast needs to include their 500 copies. It doesn't have to be precise enough to cover all demand, it is intended to help determine a minimum order quantity, something that is missing. It isn't going to accurately predict maximum potential sales, nor does it need to.
It's intention is to remove a barrier and at least cover the low end obligations and remove legitimate complaints from their core base.
Again, it is not perfect, but it helps.
Your example is ridiculous though, and greatly exaggerated using Yakuza and you know it.
GodzillaDB
Member
Sadly, it would appear they're ceasing discussion of the membership as a result of "violent responses and confusion [surrounding the plan]" according to a post on their forum. Polling was closed at 78% favorable and 22% unfavorable of the idea.
foobarry81
Member
Figured you'd focus on that and ignore all the rest again.
Grandmaster!
I want you to at least consider that you might be wrong about this whole membership thing, or that there are still some serious flaws in the whole plan.
But some on here are so far up LRG's arses (at this point I don't think those guys even enjoy that anymore; it's just too high up there) that whatever they bring to the table is infallable.
The thing is: LRG put the membership thing out there because they are unsure it's a good plan themselves. So rather than parrot them like some of you do, you might be helping them out more actually by considering any potential flaws in the plan.
YianGaruga
Banned
they have to realize there is no way to make everyone happy. There was confusion and violent responses to the Solder situation as well
foobarry81
Member
Well, that is where you're wrong.
The problem with Söldner is that you didn't have an accurate maximum potential sale, and look where it's gotten us.
If you don't need accuracy, then you might as well completely trust your gut feeling and keep the membership and the polls out of it.
Right now they have shop data from x number of runs that tells them how many customers are returning customers.
Those data tell you about the same as what a membership would tell you. Actually maybe even more, because you will have more returning customers than customers willing to pony up $30/
No, you believe it helps. Based on nothing.
Of course you would call it ridiculous. You don't have any other arguments against it.
It's not ridiculous. It's not unthinkable that LRG would sign a big title. Yakuza is not a great exxageration. It's a niche title that SEGA doesn't localize because they think it doesn't sell well enough.
Of course you again didn't check any sales numbers, but Yakuza isn't particularly a blockbuster series: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yakuza_(series)#Sales
This is what you do all the time. Just claim something, without any evidence, not backed up at all. And then of course everything someone else says is ridiculous.
You're kidding right? You link to sales info indicating titles having sold millions and then call it niche?
And Sega has localized every major release in the franchise and is again with 0. 5 being the only one released digitally, but it was still localized.
ScHlAuChi
Member
Having missed out on 2 releases now due to the known issues, this does sound like the best solution and I would subscribe without hesitation the moment it becomes available!
Dragonslayer_023
Banned
Good, keep it simple. Some people will miss out on certain games. They're limited, it happens.
7 million sales over 13 games, and the vast majority of those sales are from Japan.
metalmachine
Member
Hey guys.
So I missed the boat on #13:Soldner-X 2. Does anyone have a preorder and not sure if you want it?
I'm desperately looking to get one. I'd prefer the bundle with soundtrack but would still be really happy with the just the game.
Thanks
So I missed the boat on #13:Soldner-X 2. Does anyone have a preorder and not sure if you want it?
I'm desperately looking to get one. I'd prefer the bundle with soundtrack but would still be really happy with the just the game.
Thanks
foobarry81
Member
You know damn well what I meant with localized in the context we were speaking of Yakuza 5. Don't play dumb.
Exactly, but that Psycho dude doesn't even bother reading (properly) what you link him to.
So what's niche to you?
foobarry81
Member
Dude, read what it says: 7 million divided by 13 is roughy 540k per game.
The first two titles sold the best of all. Meaning the later titles are sub-500k most likely. That is 500k worldwide!
The vast majority of that 500k was sold in Japan. Let's assume they sold 250k in Japan, and 250k in the West + Asia + South America.
That means 250k per game in the West + Asia + South America. Which means maybe 100k at best per game in the US. For comparison. La Mulana EX sold 600K. Minecraft sold millions.
Does that make it any clearer to you?
You're right, I am contributing to this derailing and will stop. My apologies.
foobarry81
Member
Lol, tell yourself what you want, man. I don't think that you're even believing what you're writing anymore. At this point it's just trolling, as demonstrated in above quote.
Wasn't LRG going to do Atelier games? They're in the same range Yakuza games are in the West, meaning in the region of 100k per game. I'm assuming you consider the Atelier series also non-niche: http://www.siliconera.com/2011/07/0...mist-of-arland-trilogy-exceeds-400000-copies/
LRG would probably need 10k-15k copies of those games at least.
Which means, with a subscription system, you would get up to 15k subscribers because you offered that type of games one time. They're never going to sell 15K copies of Breach & Clear 3 though.
But sure, that's where your 'Super Accurate' polling comes into play. ;-)
Reluctant-Hero
Member
LimitedRunGames
Member
How about that Rainbow Moon though?!
August is going to be a great month!
We are going to limit Rainbow Moon to 1 per customer since the run size is only 3,000 per platform.
August is going to be a great month!
We are going to limit Rainbow Moon to 1 per customer since the run size is only 3,000 per platform.
Looking forward to it, except I'll be out of state. Hope I have a 4g signal when it goes up.
GodzillaDB
Member
Limited Run has already shot down proposals toward a pre-order/made-to-demand system along with shying away from the membership subscription based on the nasty feedback. Discussing these ideas any further will be a moot point. It's pretty clear we're going to remain in the same circumstances until further notice.
I just hope that I can snag a copy of "Shadow Complex" as "Rainbow Moon" looks too grind intensive based on the remarks that I've seen despite the positive outlook from critics.
I wanna try and get 1 each. Hope my Internet speeds can make it in!
Reluctant-Hero
Member
Absolutely in for a Vita copy. I'll try to pickup the PS4 release too if inventory is available after my Vita checkout.
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