Support NeoGAF

[faisal233]

Louisiana senate runoff election is going to be held on 10 Dec 2016 between Foster Campbell (D) and John Kennedy (R).

Right now the senate sits at 51-48, with the LA seat undecided.

http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-b...ats-have-one-final-shot-to-flip-a-senate-seat

Democrats have one final shot to flip a Senate seat -- but in order to pull off an upset, they need to quickly rally around the Louisiana candidate whose victory could be a bright spot in an otherwise dismal year. Public Service Commissioner – and jovial cattle farmer – Foster Campbell will face off against Republican State Treasurer John Kennedy, a twice-failed Senate candidate, in a Dec. 10 runoff.

On the surface, it might seem like a lost cause: A Democrat running a statewide campaign in Louisiana in the Year of Trump. On the contrary, though, Campbell has a legitimate shot to upset his opponent the same way Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards did in 2015. Yes, Louisiana has a Democratic governor. He's busy at the moment cleaning up the fiscal mess left by his predecessor, failed presidential candidate and Kenneth-the-Page avatar Bobby Jindal.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/republican-john-kennedy-has-advantage-in-runoff-senate-race

National Republicans are pouring in support to Louisiana Senate candidate John Kennedy to smother any chance that Democrat Foster Campbell can pull off what would be a stunning upset in their Dec. 10 runoff.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is opening 10 offices across the state to aid Kennedy’s election, The Advocate reported. In 2014, Republicans came out in masses to help Bill Cassidy defeat Democratic incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu.

DNC MIA as usual. Maybe this will be an opportunity for Keith Ellison and Howard Dean to prove that they are worthy of the DNC chair by speaking out about the lack of support.

Things you can do:

1. VOTE.:Runoff election are low turnout. Maybe we can harness this anger for a worthy goal.

2. DONATE: http://www.fostercampbell2016.com/
Democrats nationwide should be donating for the only undecided seat in the Senate.

3. VIRTUAL PHONE BANK: http://bit.ly/FCampbell
Can be done from anywhere in the country.

 

[hodayathink]

This thread (and the probable result of this runoff) is basically a perfect example of the problems that the DNC (and Democrats in general) have to fix in the next 2-4 years.

 

[Trickster]

This thread (and the probable result of this runoff) is basically a perfect example of the problems that the DNC (and Democrats in general) have to fix in the next 2-4 years.

What problems are we talking about? I've mainly heard stuff about how the democrats gave up trying ty have a presence in many "lost cause" states

 

[Hasphat'sAnts]

Can't understand why they're not giving him the support he needs. What are you saving your money for if not to flip one of these unlikely states?

 

[Eidan]

60% of the vote went to Republican candidates in the first vote. What am I missing here? Why are people acting like this is a winnable race that is only lost because of the dreaded DNC?

 

[ezrarh]

Can't understand why they're not giving him the support he needs. What are you saving your money for if not to flip one of these unlikely states?

The answer is always more consultants.

 

[Jarmel]

Can't understand why they're not giving him the support he needs. What are you saving your money for if not to flip one of these unlikely states?

I have no fucking clue. My guess is that the DNC is too busy being shell-shocked rather than actually putting together a network.

 

[Skellig Gra]

60% of the vote went to Republican candidates in the first vote. What am I missing here? Why are people acting like this is a winnable race that is only lost because of the dreaded DNC?

It's just a fool's hope to cling to in desperate times

 

[hodayathink]

What problems are we talking about? I've mainly heard stuff about how the democrats gave up trying ty have a presence in many "lost cause" states

Louisiana, in general, is supposed to be one of those lost cause states. Only reason they have a Dem governor is because Jindal was basically one of the worst, if not the worst, state governors of the past decade. If the DNC were on their shit, they'd be pouring in resources here, because like the OP says, elections like this are generally low turnout so putting resources into a good GOTV campaign can actually pull it out. That's exactly what the Republicans seem to be doing.

60% of the vote went to Republican candidates in the first vote. What am I missing here? Why are people acting like this is a winnable race that is only lost because of the dreaded DNC?

Because an election in the middle of December isn't going to have the turnout of a Presidential election, and organizing and getting as much of your base as you can to vote in it gives you a chance, even if small, to turn the tide.

Edit: And in addition to that, I don't think New Orleans or Baton Rouge are particularly expensive media markets, so it's not like it would cost a ton of money.

 

[SneakersSO]

Keith Ellison & Howard Dean likely would not get into power until after April, when the voting for the new DNC Chair is conducted. Considering how the DNC already felt for rural states, I do not imagine the DNC will be sending any support their way. Considering just how much HRC & the DNC blew on her election campaign, I can imagine their financial war chest might be a little tight atm.

 

[Drakeon]

60% of the vote went to Republican candidates in the first vote. What am I missing here? Why are people acting like this is a winnable race that is only lost because of the dreaded DNC?

Because of the fact that this is going to be low turnout, it's not impossible to imagine a scenario where the Democrats were more organized and turned out to vote more due to anger over a Trump win.

I'll also say it's not likely, especially with the DNC doing exactly jack to help.

 

[ezrarh]

Louisiana, in general, is supposed to be one of those lost cause states. Only reason they have a Dem governor is because Jindal was basically one of the worst, if not the worst, state governors of the past decade. If the DNC were on their shit, they'd be pouring in resources here, because like the OP says, elections like this are generally low turnout so putting resources into a good GOTV campaign can actually pull it out. That's exactly what the Republicans seem to be doing.

It's also an opportunity to test out messaging. Even if you fail (in all likelihood), no reason why you can't learn from it.

 

[kess]

Well, it isn't like they have anything to lose. I'd take that 100 to 1 bet if it offers even a sliver of a chance to slow down Trump.

 

[Eidan]

Because of the fact that this is going to be low turnout, it's not impossible to imagine a scenario where the Democrats were more organized and turned out to vote more due to anger over a Trump win.

I'll also say it's not likely, especially with the DNC doing exactly jack to help.

What is the DSCC up to? I mean, I know GAF's hater boner for the DNC is strong, but this is throughly in the realm of the DSCC.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

Why should the DNC waste time or resources on a race that is already lost?

 

[Eidan]

Why should the DNC waste time or resources on a race that is already lost?

A better question, which I asked before, is why are we asking about the DNC when this is DSCC territory?

 

[faisal233]

A better question, which I asked before, is why are we asking about the DNC when this is DSCC territory?

Fine DSCC.

Democrats want to talk about a 50 state strategy. They just don't want to support it.

You know why the DSCC should waste it's resources on a lost cause? Because they have nothing else competing for their resources right now.

A better question would be, why is the NRSC wasting it's resources on a safe seat?

 

[Dishwalla]

We had a thread on this already and it got laughed off the forum.

 

[Eidan]

Fine DSCC.

Democrats want to talk about a 50 state strategy. They just don't want to support it.

You know why the DSCC should waste it's resources on a lost cause? Because they have nothing else competing for their resources right now.

A better question would be, why is the RSCC wasting it's resources on a safe seat?

I'm asking what is the DSCC doing? From my time working with them, they typically never outright ignore a contested race. I checked out the two articles linked and neither mention much about the Democrat's support one way of the other.

 

[Maengun1]

Pulling for him, you can do calls from any state I believe

 

[Blader]

I'll chip in some money.

Fine DSCC.

Democrats want to talk about a 50 state strategy. They just don't want to support it.

You know why the DSCC should waste it's resources on a lost cause? Because they have nothing else competing for their resources right now.

A better question would be, why is the NRSC wasting it's resources on a safe seat?

Well that's kind of the problem: the current chairs don't talk about a 50 state strategy.

 

[Oblivion]

I think this will be a great preview to see if we can harness the vehement opposition against Trump in 2018.

 

[Jonm1010]

It's just a fool's hope to cling to in desperate times

I live here. It is a long shot but not impossible if the party mobilizes and certain cards fall the right way.

We did just vote for a Democratic Governor. And despite our state being one that is trending more conservative, rural complacency and/or disillusionment when contrasted with a motivated Baton Rouge/New Orleans population can still eek out Democratic victories in state level elections.

If the luster of Trump falters, victory complacency sets in, or Kennedy's own purity issues(he has switched parties and is criticized by both sides as being an opportunist) creates apathy or motivation issues for Republicans, Foster could sneak a win.

 

[faisal233]

Early voting started today.
8:30 AM - 6:00 PM 11/26 to 12/03 except for Sunday.

Im voting on Tuesday, gotta work today.

 

[ShironRedshift]

Well, it isn't like they have anything to lose. I'd take that 100 to 1 bet if it offers even a sliver of a chance to slow down Trump.

Indeed. Great thread; thank you for the effort put into it.

 

[Stumpokapow]

This thread (and the probable result of this runoff) is basically a perfect example of the problems that the DNC (and Democrats in general) have to fix in the next 2-4 years.

Louisiana has been trending more and more conservative for decades, with a massive discontinuity when black New Orleans disappeared after Katrina. It's a state that's going to be lost to the Democrats even if they abruptly pivot and try to win back Ohio and refocus around the glory days of when Bill Clinton was signing welfare reform and no one had ever heard of gender pronouns or whatever the NYT is telling the party to do because the sky is falling.

Foster Campbell has had 4 failed campaigns for major state office--this is a pretty flawed candidate based on that. We would not expect, even in a year where Hillary had won by resounding margins, that this would be a Democratic win, and the Democrats wouldn't need this seat to get to 60 if they had control and were looking to increase it.

JBE (who I quite like) won the governorship not because of anything he did, but because he was literally running against a guy whose pitch was "I'm a Family Values Conservative And I Don't Regret Fucking Hookers On The Public Dime". JBE would have lost to any other state-wide Republican. Finally, the first-round results of this run-off suggest there is relatively little viable path for Foster to win (~55% of first-round voters picked candidates that suggest Kennedy votes in the second round, compared to ~30% picking candidates that suggest Campbell votes in the second round). I would be pretty surprised if Foster Campbell broke 40% in the second round. I would guess something like 62-38 or so will be the final result.

So in terms of how we see this as part of a broader problem in the Democratic party, I think it the right takeaway would be that the thin state benches pose a candidate recruitment problem across the board, but beyond that there's little to learn here and Louisiana probably wouldn't be a target state going forward.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

Can't understand why they're not giving him the support he needs. What are you saving your money for if not to flip one of these unlikely states?

Because it's a lost cause.

 

[Nif]

Just voted

 

[faisal233]

Because it's a lost cause.

Cause we have so many winning causes to spend our money on for the next two year.

 

[dramatis]

Bumping this as a reminder to LouisianaGAF to vote today.

 

[Jcinq]

Went and voted this morning. Only one other person voting when I got there.

 

[thekonamicode]

Baton Rouge voter checking in. About to take a shower before I walk over to the polls!

 

[Big Baybee]

Wife and I voted in BR today.

 

[Jonm1010]

Girlfriend and I are heading to the polls in an hour.

 

[Ludovico]

Voted.

Now, we wait and see...

 

[makingmusic476]

Completely forgot about this. Glad I saw the thread.

 

[bachikarn]

Any chance for the Democrat to win?

 

[Spike Spiegel]

Any chance for the Democrat to win?

Campbell winning would be unexpected I believe.

Also, chiming in to say that I just voted and from the looks of the registry turnout will be extremely low.

 

[faisal233]

Early voted. Seeing pence and trump defend a safe seat while the national Democratic party is mia pissed me off.

 

[onadesertedisland]

The DNC is run by sycophants. 50 state, small strategy. Run everywhere. Support local candidates. The big names got us destroyed. New fresh faces are required.

 

[linkandzelda]

Any chance for the Democrat to win?

Zero.

 

[faisal233]

Zero.

Didn't stop the RNC from mounting a strong defense.

 

[Obi]

Bumping this as a reminder to LouisianaGAF to vote today.

Thanks for the reminder! You gained a couple Campbell votes from my house.

 

[Geist-]

Hope you guys down south can pull a victory, even if I think the chances of it working are slim.

 

[jfkgoblue]

Any chance for the Democrat to win?

virtually none. Kennedy was up 20 points, then he got Trump campaigning for him... its gonna be a landslide.

 

[faisal233]

Hope you guys down south can pull a victory, even if I think the chances of it working are slim.

Might as well vote, there is nothing else to do for the next 2 years.

 

[faisal233]

virtually none. Kennedy was up 20 points, then he got Trump campaigning for him... its gonna be a landslide.

The point is that one team is trying to run up the score while the other team never tried because it was too hard.

 

[Jonm1010]

virtually none. Kennedy was up 20 points, then he got Trump campaigning for him... its gonna be a landslide.

Yeah. Turnout looked bad too.

At least in areas I talked to people in New Orleans and Baton Rouge who vote in primarily Democratic areas. They all said it was dead. It's a shame too.

 

[Xe4]

Good luck Louisiana-GAF. I have my fingers crossed, but am expecting a defeat. A win would really restore some faith in America for me, but it is Louisiana, so I'm not holding out too much hope/

 

[Jonm1010]

Good luck Louisiana-GAF. I have my fingers crossed, but am expecting a defeat. A win would really restore some faith in America for me, but it is Louisiana, so I'm not holding out too much hope/

Honestly if turnout in Baton Rouge and New Orleans is poor, Foster's chances are pretty low. And it seems like turnout is really low.