UK has 2921 new cases and 181 new deaths. Worst previously was yesterday with 115 deaths and 2129 cases. Looks like we're going parabolic
The UK only really went into a more strict "lockdown" on Monday, right?
So many of the deaths from this week would have been people who got infected 2 to 4 weeks ago?
This is one of the things that the media should do a better job of reporting.
It seems pretty obvious that the deaths per day in the UK will still rise for a week or two before it should be leveling off.
Another 2 weeks before you'd see a significant reduction.
It would be better if they tried to brace people for that rather than announcing the death toll each day like it's a big surprise.
You could probably make an educated guess on when those 181 new deaths were simply new cases. I mean, an expert could make that guess. Not us.
Then you can say "OK so we would expect to see 200+ daily deaths for the next week before it goes up to 300+ and then it comes down when we are well into the effects of social distancing".
The numbers are going to be horrendous if the time from infection to death is like 3 or 4 weeks because it means that right now we are dealing with serious cases that started in February.
Maybe they just don't know.
It seems the media will only report if it is a very unusual case like a healthy 21 year old first had symptoms and then died 5 days later etc.
We need to understand how long it may take from first symptoms to recovery or death.
Idris Elba, for example, announced that he tested positive on March 16th but he had no symptoms.
He was tested as a precaution because he had been in contact with someone else who tested positive.
That person tested positive on the 13th of March so the timeline is even longer than that.
As of now 11 days later (or 14 days if you count from the 13th) he still has no symptoms.
So if you had like a 2 week period of no symptoms then a 7 day period of illness before you died then your talking about a full 3 week timeline which means todays deaths are representing infections from March 6th. Obviously approximately.