We would expect the proportion of people dying of a given ailment, and in general, to remain fairly static over time. That's what allows us to calculate "excess deaths" in the first place. So at any given moment we can choose to include a given proportion of those deaths (eg. people dying of a respiratory deaths) in the coronavirus figures. And that may be terribly wrong, and artificially inflate the death counts, but it is still a fixed effect. Once we are already counting those respiratory deaths each day, we can't count them a second time, and we would ordinarily expect the respiratory death rate to be fairly constant. So if we see daily deaths double in the following week, we can't say: "yes but we are counting all these extra deaths", since they were already being counted the week before.I'm 100% behind the idea that hospitalizations/ICUs/deaths should be the leading factor in whether or not to impose restrictions, but early treatment and the reporting there was/is just as broken as our tests where someone dying of unrelated causes gets counted as a covid death if they tested positive weeks/months earlier. How many asymptomatic people in the hospital for other reasons are being counted as covid hospitalizations?
Gov. Newsom Says He Is in ‘No Hurry’ to Reopen Disneyland, Universal Studios Hollywood
Bob Iger's exit from Newsom's task force "didn't come as a surprise to me at all," said the governor.variety.com
He'll start to be in a hurry when Disney and Universal start throwing money at the recall effort.
The uk government released legislation last month (with no advertisement whatsover apart from posting it on there website with a 3 week consultation period) for the Covid vaccination to be released unlicenced and made the companies producing it immune from prosecution.Covid vaccine 'rolled out NEXT MONTH'
Leaked provisional documents have revealed the plan for hundreds of NHS staff to be deployed in five mass vaccination sites across the country - injecting tens of thousands of the public each day.www.dailymail.co.uk
The uk government released legislation last month (with no advertisement whatsover apart from posting it on there website with a 3 week consultation period) for the Covid vaccination to be released unlicenced and made the companies producing it immune from prosecution.
The current record for a vaccine making it to market that i can find is 4.5 years , and they want a mass vaccination program with a unlicenced vaccine for a virus they claimed they new nothing about till the start of the year?.
Absolutely no chance i'll be having that...good luck to anyone that does.
I thought I had read somewhere that some or most of these were based on exisiting vaccines that had been tested like crazy already. We'll see though. I probably won't take it either whenever it rolls out.
This assumes the vaccine(s) are safe and effective. A lot of people are wary of this fast tracked shit, and rightfully so (and not just because 'orange man bad' though it's convenient that after spending years pushing mandatory vaccine mandates all across the country, Trump has turned Dems into antivaxxers lol).It sounds like lots of younger folks are not interested in getting this right away. If they prioritize older people first, it basically brings the death rate to zero. Maybe that’s all we need anyway?
Results The CovidSim model would have produced a good forecast of the subsequent data if initialised with a reproduction number of about 3.5 for covid-19. The model predicted that school closures and isolation of younger people would increase the total number of deaths, albeit postponed to a second and subsequent waves. The findings of this study suggest that prompt interventions were shown to be highly effective at reducing peak demand for intensive care unit (ICU) beds but also prolong the epidemic, in some cases resulting in more deaths long term. This happens because covid-19 related mortality is highly skewed towards older age groups. In the absence of an effective vaccination programme, none of the proposed mitigation strategies in the UK would reduce the predicted total number of deaths below 200 000.
Conclusions It was predicted in March 2020 that in response to covid-19 a broad lockdown, as opposed to a focus on shielding the most vulnerable members of society, would reduce immediate demand for ICU beds at the cost of more deaths long term. The optimal strategy for saving lives in a covid-19 epidemic is different from that anticipated for an influenza epidemic with a different mortality age profile.
Nevertheless, in all mitigation scenarios, epidemics modelled using CovidSim eventually finish with widespread infection and immunity, and the final death toll depends primarily on the age distribution of those infected and not the total number.
So 17,540 cases, 77 deaths, and 609 hospital admissions recorded in the UK today.
I reckon that so-called “circuit breaker” national lockdown is gonna kick in soon.
I read today that at least 30% of infections among under-30s has been attributed to pubs and restaurants.I am warming up to the idea. If people would knuckle down properly for just two weeks, maybe the charade wouldn’t need to go on week in week out
I read today that at least 30% of infections among under-30s has been attributed to pubs and restaurants.
It seems Brits' penchant for booze and eating out is making it harder to get things under control. After seeing all those photos of people packing out pubs, bars and restaurants across the country in recent weeks, I can't say I'm surprised.
I don't think anyone thinks lockdowns can eradicate the virus. It's more about making things more manageable for the health service and reducing the number of indirect deaths as result of extra Covid admissions. The only real solution to solving this problem is a viable vaccine.So what, they’re going to get it at some point. This idea the virus can be controlled or stopped or eradicated with lockdowns is just so insanely dumb.
I don't think anyone thinks lockdowns can eradicate the virus. It's more about making things more manageable for the health service and reducing the number of indirect deaths as result of extra Covid admissions. The only real solution to solving this problem is a viable vaccine.
Meanwhile the 'health service' is not treating the vast majority of other risks to health that the health service was for before Covid 19 came along...currently 24th in the mortality list.I don't think anyone thinks lockdowns can eradicate the virus. It's more about making things more manageable for the health service and reducing the number of indirect deaths as result of extra Covid admissions. The only real solution to solving this problem is a viable vaccine.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief of the National Institute of Health and Infectious Disease, has tried to set realistic expectations when discussing the importance of a vaccine. "We don't know yet what the efficacy might be. We don't know if it will be 50% or 60%," Fauci said during a Brown University event in August.
"I'd like it to be 75% or more," Fauci said, but he acknowledged that may not be realistic.
Vaccine most likely will not be 100% effective. Flu vaccines are only 50-60% effective. Even Fauci himself is setting expectations a bit low
So everyone saying Vaccines will set us free, be prepared to continue giving power to officials that they say you have no say in. Even if you get the shot you will still have 25-50% chance of it not working and catching CV.
So expect masks and lockdowns for a very long time unless the virus just disappears of the face of the planet.
We would expect the proportion of people dying of a given ailment, and in general, to remain fairly static over time. That's what allows us to calculate "excess deaths" in the first place. So at any given moment we can choose to include a given proportion of those deaths (eg. people dying of a respiratory deaths) in the coronavirus figures. And that may be terribly wrong, and artificially inflate the death counts, but it is still a fixed effect. Once we are already counting those respiratory deaths each day, we can't count them a second time, and we would ordinarily expect the respiratory death rate to be fairly constant. So if we see daily deaths double in the following week, we can't say: "yes but we are counting all these extra deaths", since they were already being counted the week before.
So I don't think these differences in how we measure the death rate can be used to account for significant growth, unless we have made a measurement change between the two periods we are comparing. For example, if in one period we needed a positive test result to register a death as coronavirus related, but in the next period we merely require the doctor's belief that the death was due to the coronavirus, then that may explain a greater recorded death rate in the second period. But that difference should be visible as a change in policy that we can observe.
I think the choice of how far back we go when counting coronavirus deaths illustrates this well. Check out the two graphs on this page for deaths within 28 days and deaths within 60 days:
There are more deaths at 60 days than there are at 30 days, but does the overall pattern look much different to you? If not, then it's likely because the likelihood that a person will die doesn't change massively from month to month. So, including deaths over a greater period bumps up the absolute values, but doesn't change the fundamental pattern of the data.
I think prospect of a future where there is no vaccine isn't discussed enough. Everyone seems to be naively pinning their hopes on the vaccine being effective and things going back to normal next year. I agree that the lockdowns are damaging both economically and psychologically. But the thinking behind it seems to be about managing the virus. If all the local ICUs are overwhelmed, then people who are seriously ill but haven't got covid may end up dying because they can't get a bed.And what if we never get a vaccine? Just giving these governments endless power to close businesses and force people inside whenever they want? It’s absurd.
Like I said, 100% if people are going to get COVID if they haven’t already. We need to accept that and plan accordingly. Whoever is going to die from COVID is going to die from it. There is no avoiding this.
I agree and that's why I thought the religious-like worshipping of “Our NHS” earlier this year was ridiculous.Meanwhile the 'health service' is not treating the vast majority of other risks to health that the health service was for before Covid 19 came along...currently 24th in the mortality list.
I think prospect of a future where there is no vaccine isn't discussed enough. Everyone seems to be naively pinning their hopes on the vaccine being effective and things going back to normal next year. I agree that the lockdowns are damaging both economically and psychologically. But the thinking behind it seems to be about managing the virus. If all the local ICUs are overwhelmed, then people who are seriously ill but haven't got covid may end up dying because they can't get a bed.
The fact that the NHS isn't even that good compared to other health services only makes matters worse.
Perhaps the solution is to just view it as the ultimate survival of the fittest test – whoever is gonna die will die. But will the British public accept that? I dunno.
Personally, I'm adjusting to the idea that the virus is not going to disappear anytime soon.
I agree and that's why I thought the religious-like worshipping of “Our NHS” earlier this year was ridiculous.
I read this earlier about hospitals in the north of England. It sounds as if the rise in Covid cases has already started to disrupt things:Has there been anything close to an overwhelmed ICU because of COVID in the UK though? That's the thing that frustrates me, the lockdown maniacs always talk about muh collapsed health system, but it just seems more theoretical than anything, with the possible exception of Italy, but Italy barely functions on a good day. And it happened in Italy when we really had no idea how to treat people - we can do it much better now.
Even when cases were exploding in CA/FL/TX in the summer, we didn't really have this problem, outside of a few small border hospitals, where people theorized that Mexicans were coming over for the better American treatment. I don't remember a single picture of an overwhelmed California hospital, and if there were, we would have seen it.
I read this earlier about hospitals in the north of England. It sounds as if the rise in Covid cases has already started to disrupt things:
Hospitals in north of England 'to run out of Covid beds within a week'
Health chiefs warn they plan to ditch routine surgery as second wave seriously disrupts NHS
Hospitals in north of England 'to run out of Covid beds within a week'
Health chiefs warn they plan to ditch routine surgery as second wave seriously disrupts NHSwww.theguardian.com
Hell flu shots are significantly lower than that some years. Some estimates have had the efficacy as low as 10% some years, though 40-60% is usually considered closer to the norm. Many officialls including Fauci if I recall correctly have stated that they consider 50% "pretty good" and something they would be satisfied with more or less with regard to the prospective COVID shots.Vaccine most likely will not be 100% effective. Flu vaccines are only 50-60% effective. Even Fauci himself is setting expectations a bit low
So everyone saying Vaccines will set us free, be prepared to continue giving power to officials that they say you have no say in. Even if you get the shot you will still have 25-50% chance of it not working and catching CV.
So expect masks and lockdowns for a very long time unless the virus just disappears of the face of the planet.
The petition, which is named the Great Barrington Declaration after the town in Massachusetts it was signed in, was written on October 4 and has signatures from at least 2,826 medical and public health scientists, 3,794 medical practitioners and over 60,000 members of the general public.
It was co-authored by Dr. Martin Kulldorff, a professor of medicine at Harvard; Dr. Sunetra Gupta, a professor at Oxford University; and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, a professor at Stanford University Medical School.
"As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection," the petition says in its opening line. "Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health."
The petition adds, "Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed."
"We are not advocating a 'herd immunity strategy.' Herd immunity is not a strategy, but a scientifically proven phenomena, just like gravity, and you would not say that an airplane pilot is using a 'gravity strategy' to land a plane. No matter what strategy is used, we will reach herd immunity sooner or later, just as an airplane will reach the ground one way or another," Kulldorff's email said. "The key is to minimize the number of deaths until we reach herd immunity and that is what the Great Barrington Declaration is about."
ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zerowww.zerohedge.com
it’s literally just the flu, bro
this madness needs to end
Do we still trust the doctors and scientists?
Hell flu shots are significantly lower than that some years. Some estimates have had the efficacy as low as 10% some years, though 40-60% is usually considered closer to the norm. Many officialls including Fauci if I recall correctly have stated that they consider 50% "pretty good" and something they would be satisfied with more or less with regard to the prospective COVID shots.
So yeah, all the "run out the clock until the vaccine" people... you may face a crossroads at some point. When faced with continued draconian mitigation measures even after the vaccine is available, will you roll over and lick some boots, or will you join us in calling for the end to this madness?
A scientist who has been spectacularly wrong in the past should not be trusted if she's repeating the same mistake.
Professor Sunetra Gupta: the epidemic is on its way out, May 21st 2020
When the fear mongering hits too close to home:
Fauci said his daughters refuse to visit for Thanksgiving, telling him: 'You're a young, vigorous guy, but you're 79 years old'
The women would be traveling from cities that don't have low coronavirus-infection rates. They said they would rather send their love via Zoom.www.businessinsider.com
Fauci's kids won't see him during Thanksgiving because they're scared of killing him. He says he is fine with them coming to visit, which should say a lot about how Fauci personally feels about COVID.
How many more Thanksgiving does this old bastard have left? That's one less without his children, awful.
Whoops!
I'm positive that many people use COVID as an excuse to be anti-social assholes.
"Oh sweet I can wear a mask to cover my ugly face I'm self conscious about.
Cool, people I know won't even recognize me cuz I have a mask on!
Great, I don't have to fake nice and socialize with people.
Awesome, I don't need to shake hands with people anymore.
Nice, I don't have to see or visit people I pretend to like/care about."
I wasn't born fucking yesterday. I know things. I can tell by the way people act that they are using COVID as some sort of Larry David style social deflection tactic. I can see right through people.
Maybe the human race deserves to be wiped out.
Now tell me, am I lying?
Interesting article and i would like to see any evidence that can refute it.
Here it is.
A little preview:
6841 tctatgccga ctactatagc aaagaatact gttaagagtg tcggtaaatt ttgtctagag
6901 gcttcattta attatttgaa gtcacctaat ttttctaaac tgataaatat tataatttgg
6961 tttttactat taagtgtttg cctaggttct ttaatctact caaccgctgc tttaggtgtt
7021 ttaatgtcta atttaggcat gccttcttac tgtactggtt acagagaagg ctatttgaac
7081 tctactaatg tcactattgc aacctactgt actggttcta taccttgtag tgtttgtctt
7141 agtggtttag attctttaga cacctatcct tctttagaaa ctatacaaat taccatttca
The CDC document is titled, “CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel.” It is dated July 13, 2020.
Buried deep in the document, on page 39, in a section titled, “Performance Characteristics,” we have this: “Since no quantified virus isolates of the 2019-nCoV are currently available, assays [diagnostic tests] designed for detection of the 2019-nCoV RNA were tested with characterized stocks of in vitro transcribed full length RNA…”
/country="China"
/collection_date="02-Jan-2020"
/note="genome sequence collected on Jan 7, 2020"
If a mechanic says he has a piece of a fender from a car that has never been seen before; if he claims he knows the car exists; but he can’t show you the car; are you going to buy his story?
It's almost impossible to imagine a conventional politician as president (as opposed to Trump) doing something this drastic back in Feb. Especially considering Fauci et. al. were downplaying it and Democrats were saying that not going to Chinese New Year parades was racist.
From the first article:
CDC claims none available as of July 13, your link says:
If a mechanic says he has a piece of a fender from a car that has never been seen before; if he claims he knows the car exists; but he can’t show you the car; are you going to buy his story?
Do we still trust the doctors and scientists?
This genome is the virus at its most basic, detailed molecular level. That car you are talking about existed originally as technical drawings. What you are saying is that in order for the first car to be built you have to have the car already.
So cars cannot exist.