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May NPD ~might~ be out today.

S

sonycowboy

Member
It's the correct day, but

a) there has been no preview put out yet by Wedbush Morgan,
b) NPD is usually late after E3,

However, a poster who normally posts some of the NPD numbers early on the Yahoo Stock Activision message boards, saw estimates from Pacific Crest (another brokerage firm) that says that NPD will be out after market close today.

So, I'll forgo the "official predictions" thread, but this should be an interesting month.

1) How far will the PSP fall in hardware sales
2) What about the rest of the hardware. We had anemic sales for the most part for hardware last month and this month was even slower for releases.

Rhindle said:
April Hardware Sales <---------- LAST MONTH

PSP = 351,000
PS2 = 332,000
Xbox = 153,000
GCN = 63,000
GBA/DS = 250,000 (approx)
Click to expand...

3) What about the new releases? Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith, Forza, WarioWare: Twisted!, MVP Baseball (PSP), Pariah, Enthusia, Madagascar, Donkey Konga 2, NFSU (NDS), & HSG: Open Tee.

4) Previous Month Titles: Doom 3, Midnight Club: Dub, Jade Empire, God of War, Splinter Cell, Wrestlemania, Lego Star Wars, Gran Turismo 4, NFS (PSP), & MVP Baseball.

I predict a HUGE month for Star Wars & a big month for Forza. And a pretty big fall for the PSP.
 
sonycowboy said:
3) What about the new releases? Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith, Forza, WarioWare: Twisted!, MVP Baseball (PSP), Pariah, Enthusia, Madagascar, Donkey Konga 2, NFSU (NDS), & HSG: Open Tee.[/b]
Click to expand...

Forgetting something emerald greenly?
 
Juice said:
Fixed. Sort of.
Click to expand...

No. There were no new games at all in April.

My predictions:

PS2 350,000
Xbox 175,000
Gamecube 75,000
GBA/DS 200,000
PSP 250,000

Star Wars(Xbox/PS2) 550,000
Forza 275,000
God of War 150,000(I hope it sells more :D )
Doom 3 150,000
 
sonycowboy said:
I predict a HUGE month for Star Wars & a big month for Forza. And a pretty big fall for the PSP.
Click to expand...

I dunno about Forza, I check Amazon's top sellers everyday and Forza didn't have much staying power, the PSP, PS2, Pokemon Emerald and the Star Wars games were always among the top, the PSP also seems to be having some supply problems cause it keeps going in and out of stock, I think Sony might be trying to clear the channel
 
Hardware:

PS2~ 360.000
Xbox~ 180.000
GCN~ 90.000
GBA~ 220.000
NDS~ 100.000
PSP~ 190.000

Handheld Software:

Pokemon Emerald~ 450.000
Star Wars EpIII GBA~ 90.000
Madagascar GBA~ 80.000
Fire Emblem TSS~ 70.000
Wario Ware Twisted~ 55.000
Pacman Pinball~ 20.000

NFSU2 DS~ 65.000
Star Wars EpIII DS~ 55.000
Madagascar DS~ 35.000
Puyo Fever~ 15.000

MVP PSP~ 70.000
HSG Open Tee~ 65.000
Smartbomb~ 10.000
 
Why do they bundle the DS and GBA together? That makes gauging the success of the DS and its impact on GBA sales much more difficult.
 
Link316 said:
I dunno about Forza, I check Amazon's top sellers everyday and Forza didn't have much staying power, the PSP, PS2, Pokemon Emerald and the Star Wars games were always among the top, the PSP also seems to be having some supply problems cause it keeps going in and out of stock, I think Sony might be trying to clear the channel
Click to expand...

That's not exactly the best guide to go off of. People were trying to gauge the Xbox's success in Japan based on how long it could stay #1 on Amazon Japans charts and look at how that turned out.
 
PhatSaqs said:
Im betting XB hardware will start to approach GC levels pretty soon.
Click to expand...

I've done channel checks and Xbox has gotten very hard to get ahold of again, and so has the PS2. The PS2 is more available, but many stores haven't gotten shipments in weeks.

But, the PSP is pretty much available everywhere (in small quantities, which appear to be sufficient)
 
ratcliffja said:
Wait, so why are we certain that jarrod's numbers are false? Where'd he get those from anyway?
Click to expand...
Er, those are my predictions, not the "real" numbers. Sorry I wasn't clear. :)
 
I think the DS sales will be good this time. A lot of good GBA games came out and I think some people bought them for the DS (with a DS, of course) after seeing what the DS has after this e3 :P

PSP in the 150-180K range would be my guess for it.
 
Pokemon Emerald's going to drive GBA/DS sales a bit. DS getting some releases might help it too, but I'm not expecting any real noticable bump until June probably.
 
flsh said:
I think the DS sales will be good this time. A lot of good GBA games came out and I think some people bought them for the DS (with a DS, of course) after seeing what the DS has after this e3 :P

PSP in the 150-180K range would be my guess for it.
Click to expand...

I think PSP ~could have some truly weak numbers. Last months PSP numbers could have still been launch demand that wasn't satisfied in the last week of March.

Now, you've potentially already worked through people who would have been willing to pay almost any price and now you're left with the people for whom price is actually something they consider.

So, this month's question is: How will the market at large (not just day 1-20 buyers) accept the $250 launch price?

If the sales are very weak this month and next, I think Sony will most likely be forced to drop the bundle and release the core system in July.
 
I'm sure e3 helped the PSP to SOME degree. Besides, weren't the 512MB and 1 GIG sticks back in stock during May? (or were they out of stock only here?)
This month will be interesting :)

BTW, how many copies does HSG sell on the PS2? It will probably be a good indication of the PSP version numbers.
 
I didn't follow GTA LCS but I'm sure some people talked about it? If GT4 mobile and GTA LCS weren't exposed than I take what I said back :P
 
flsh said:
I didn't follow GTA LCS but I'm sure some people talked about it? If GT4 mobile and GTA LCS weren't exposed than I take what I said back :P
Click to expand...
dude, are you an idiot? They weren't even mentioned, let alone exposed.

Hell, Sony's entire press conference was focussed on the PS3. There was NO mention about the PSP nor the PS2.

Next time, at least admit that you didn't follow E3 BEFORE you make ridiculous claims.
 
Gamecube - 70,000

Donkey Konga 2 Hit Song Parade - 60,000
Resident Evil 4 - 25,000 - It will sell a bit more than last month because of the price drop to $40.
Donkey Kong Jungle Beat W/Bongos + Without - 50,000
Super Smash Brothers Melee - 32,000
Animal Crossing - 25,000
Super Mario Sunshine - 30,000

GBA - 210,000

Pokemon Emerald - 400,000
Wario Ware: Twisted - 110,000
Fire Emblem: Sacred Stones - 40,000
Mario Party Advance - 25,000

DS - 150,000

Need for Speed: Underground 2 - 70,000
Puyo Pop Fever - 15,000
Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith - 50,000
Pac Pix - 10,000
Polarium - 10,000
Yoshi's Touch n` Go - 32,000
Wario Ware: Touched - 25,000
Super Mario 64 DS - 28,000

Also Super Mario 64 DS should make it over a million sales this month.

PSP - 220,000

Hot Shots Golf - 55,000
MVP Baseball - 60,000
Smart Bomb - 7,000
 
Hardware

PS2 - 275,000
PSP - 225,000
GBA - 185,000
MXB - 170,000
NDS - 155,000
NGC - 110,000

Software

Star Wars III (All) - 600,000
Forza - 250,000
MVP PSP - 85,000
HSG OT - 62,000
Fire Emblem 8 - 48,000
Puyo Pop Fever - 20,000
Lumines - 9,500
 
Just to give you guys a heads up for some NPD sales, heres a few Life to Date sales of things at Toys R Us(granted this does go 3 or 4 days into June though).

PS2 Star Wars Episode 3 39,000
XB Star Wars Episode 3 21,000

GBA Pokemon Emerald 95,000

PS2 Madagascar 5,000
GC Madagascar 3,600
XB Madagascar 1,200
GBA Madagascar 4,900
 
Lee-T said:
Just to give you guys a heads up for some NPD sales, heres a few Life to Date sales of things at Toys R Us(granted this does go 3 or 4 days into June though).

PS2 Star Wars Episode 3 39,000
XB Star Wars Episode 3 21,000

GBA Pokemon Emerald 95,000

PS2 Madagascar 5,000
GC Madagascar 3,600
XB Madagascar 1,200
GBA Madagascar 4,900
Click to expand...

No HW numbers? Precisely the PSP and DS?
 
I'll get hardware numbers tomorrow for you guys. DS has really picked up in sales the past few weeks, but overall PSP still has beaten it at TRU(even though supply was short). The Xbox is still in somewhat short supply at TRU, so sales weren't as big as they could have been, and only 3,000 pieces are coming to TRU this month. PS2s are in stock at TRU in 99% of the stores as supply has met demand, but they are still selling briskly, but there shouldn't be any more shortages as the warehouses have tons of them now. This is all from a weekly update they send us.

GBA I think is just doing the same it normally does, but whats weird is that TRU doesn't have a very large order open for GBA SPs and the warehouses are really low on them(except the black which they have thousands of). Usually they are flooded with SPs. I wonder if they are anticipating the GBA Micro to take the SPs place and then the DS really hurting SP sales that much more.

Anyway, I'll have numbers tomorrow. This should help people's guesses, but TRU doesn't really predict whats selling at other places.
 
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