plagiarize
Banned
golf bump continues. no disputing it now. golf bump >> gundam bump
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Media Create Sales: 8/13 - 8/19
- Thread starter cvxfreak
- Start date
BishopLamont
Banned
Golf bump isn't really significant if you factor in that it was holiday last week. If there was no holiday there'd be the usual 3k drop which we will see next week.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
NEXT GEN WEEKLY SALES 38
Since 11/27/07:
38 Total Weeks of Next Gen sales.
32 Total Weeks of post-holiday sales.
Trends
Trends are generally determined by the last 4 weeks of data. Averages are determined by total sales divided by the number of weeks posted above. Outside factors are considered (such as big releases, holidays, etc) when determining current trends and establishing predictions. Trend results are not an average.
360 - Established Trend: 2k. Next Gen Avg = 6,010. Post Holiday Avg = 3,733.
Wii - Established Cycle: 62-78k. Next Gen Avg = 90,109. Post Holiday Avg = 72,161.
PS3 - Establishing Trend: 17-24k. Next Gen Avg = 24,437. Post Holiday Avg = 17,422.
Expectations for Next Week
Expectations are predictions only, and are based upon trends, outside factors, and sales history. Previous week's success rate included for accountability.
360 - 2.5k <-- within .055k the previous week!! This will seemingly never change.
Wii - 70k <-- within 4k the previous week. A return to the 64-75k shipment cycles is all but confirmed. Notice how both huge bumps are preceded by build-ups, drop-offs, and rebuilds.
PS3 - 17k <-- Within 3k the previous week. Expectations of a continued slided have been tempered, for now. I expect the PS3 to slowly, slowly, slowly pick up steam as prices drop and it becomes entrenched at #2 in Japan. For now, though, I say expect 13k-20k for the next few weeks.
Significant Notes:
● The Wii has extended its lead to 2,339,120 over the PS3.
● 98,103 consoles sold this week. Wii had 75.37% of all console sales.
● The Wii only outsold the PS3 3.40:1 this week. Iwata is ashamed.
● The 5 million Wii watch party continues...expected to cross the 5 mil. mark by the end of the year.
● The Wii has had 67% market share for over 3 months now, but still hasn't reached 70%. Is this the plateau that this market will accept? (Currently 69.72%)
● The 360 crossed the 400k units sold mark. It will hit 1 million units sold in just 250 more weeks.
Since 11/27/07:
38 Total Weeks of Next Gen sales.
32 Total Weeks of post-holiday sales.
Trends
Trends are generally determined by the last 4 weeks of data. Averages are determined by total sales divided by the number of weeks posted above. Outside factors are considered (such as big releases, holidays, etc) when determining current trends and establishing predictions. Trend results are not an average.
360 - Established Trend: 2k. Next Gen Avg = 6,010. Post Holiday Avg = 3,733.
Wii - Established Cycle: 62-78k. Next Gen Avg = 90,109. Post Holiday Avg = 72,161.
PS3 - Establishing Trend: 17-24k. Next Gen Avg = 24,437. Post Holiday Avg = 17,422.
Expectations for Next Week
Expectations are predictions only, and are based upon trends, outside factors, and sales history. Previous week's success rate included for accountability.
360 - 2.5k <-- within .055k the previous week!! This will seemingly never change.
Wii - 70k <-- within 4k the previous week. A return to the 64-75k shipment cycles is all but confirmed. Notice how both huge bumps are preceded by build-ups, drop-offs, and rebuilds.
PS3 - 17k <-- Within 3k the previous week. Expectations of a continued slided have been tempered, for now. I expect the PS3 to slowly, slowly, slowly pick up steam as prices drop and it becomes entrenched at #2 in Japan. For now, though, I say expect 13k-20k for the next few weeks.
Significant Notes:
● The Wii has extended its lead to 2,339,120 over the PS3.
● 98,103 consoles sold this week. Wii had 75.37% of all console sales.
● The Wii only outsold the PS3 3.40:1 this week. Iwata is ashamed.
● The 5 million Wii watch party continues...expected to cross the 5 mil. mark by the end of the year.
● The Wii has had 67% market share for over 3 months now, but still hasn't reached 70%. Is this the plateau that this market will accept? (Currently 69.72%)
● The 360 crossed the 400k units sold mark. It will hit 1 million units sold in just 250 more weeks.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Wii comparisons: At week 38, Wii is where GCN was at 157.7 weeks (September 16, 2004), where GBA was at 32.7 weeks (November 2, 2001), where DS was at 46.8 weeks (October 21, 2005), where PS2 was at 51.2 weeks (February 19, 2001), and where PSP was at 74.8 weeks (May 12, 2006).
Additional note here: You may note I used to point out there was some X number of PS2s sold online which seemed to not be counted in Famitsu early on, making the direct comparison with PS2 above a bit off. I said it wouldn't be until Wii was 500K above where Famitsu had PS2 at the same time that I'd feel really confident Wii was ahead. Well, give or take a week for differences between trackers, but that point has been reached.
PS3 comparisons: At week 41, PS3 is where PS2 was at 4.7 weeks (March 30, 2000), where PSP was at 15.5 weeks (March 23, 2000), where GCN was at 17.5 weeks (January 9, 2002), and where Wii was at 5.9 weeks (January 5, 2007).
DS vs PSP: Weekly shares of 82.0 / 18.0, bringing the total shares to 76.5 / 23.6. If DS stopped selling and PSP continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 389.9 weeks (February 8, 2015).
PS3 vs Wii: Weekly shares of 22.7 / 77.3, bringing the total shares to 24.1 / 75.9. If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 107.7 weeks (September 11, 2009).
PSP vs Wii: At this week's rates, Wii catches up to PSP in 60.4 weeks (October 15, 2008).
PS2 vs DS: At this week's rate DS catches up to PS2 in 12.1 weeks (November 11, 2007) at ~20.86 million apiece.
Total sales pass 10 million for the year at week 33. Last year it took until week 46.
Additional note here: You may note I used to point out there was some X number of PS2s sold online which seemed to not be counted in Famitsu early on, making the direct comparison with PS2 above a bit off. I said it wouldn't be until Wii was 500K above where Famitsu had PS2 at the same time that I'd feel really confident Wii was ahead. Well, give or take a week for differences between trackers, but that point has been reached.
PS3 comparisons: At week 41, PS3 is where PS2 was at 4.7 weeks (March 30, 2000), where PSP was at 15.5 weeks (March 23, 2000), where GCN was at 17.5 weeks (January 9, 2002), and where Wii was at 5.9 weeks (January 5, 2007).
DS vs PSP: Weekly shares of 82.0 / 18.0, bringing the total shares to 76.5 / 23.6. If DS stopped selling and PSP continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 389.9 weeks (February 8, 2015).
PS3 vs Wii: Weekly shares of 22.7 / 77.3, bringing the total shares to 24.1 / 75.9. If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 107.7 weeks (September 11, 2009).
PSP vs Wii: At this week's rates, Wii catches up to PSP in 60.4 weeks (October 15, 2008).
PS2 vs DS: At this week's rate DS catches up to PS2 in 12.1 weeks (November 11, 2007) at ~20.86 million apiece.
Total sales pass 10 million for the year at week 33. Last year it took until week 46.
titiklabingapat
Member
Where's Vinkk at?
According to sinobi, first day sales:
FFCC RoF: 120K (37% of FFIII, 66% of RW on the first day)
Sengoku Musou 2 Mushouden: 100K (good for an expanded edition, compared to 180K for SM2 Empires)
Gyakuten Saiban 3: 30K (30% sell-through, sinobi not worried due to legs of GS1/GS2)
FFCC RoF: 120K (37% of FFIII, 66% of RW on the first day)
Sengoku Musou 2 Mushouden: 100K (good for an expanded edition, compared to 180K for SM2 Empires)
Gyakuten Saiban 3: 30K (30% sell-through, sinobi not worried due to legs of GS1/GS2)
AlternativeUlster
Absolutely pathetic part deux
cvxfreak said:
Wait, so is the US getting the 3rd Pheonix Wright game first or the 4th one?
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
Considering Sengoku Musou 2 did half first one numbers...not bad at all to open with 100k for the Mushouden edition (first one Mushouden did 190k opening week and 375k LTD). Also SM2 got an Empires edition (90k first week, 175k LTD). Anyway, Musou real challenge will be Shin Sangoku Musou 5...
So-so start for FFCC, (do we know shipment?), I wonder if it'll be as front-loaded as the average FF title. I can see it doing like the GC one first week (190k) easily, also passing its LTD (355k) but I don't see it reaching 500k unless it shows some legs thanks to multiplayer or something.
edit: some other titles
DS Hayate - 15k
PSP Dragoneer Aria - 10k
DS Bikkuri-man - 3k
So-so start for FFCC, (do we know shipment?), I wonder if it'll be as front-loaded as the average FF title. I can see it doing like the GC one first week (190k) easily, also passing its LTD (355k) but I don't see it reaching 500k unless it shows some legs thanks to multiplayer or something.
edit: some other titles
DS Hayate - 15k
PSP Dragoneer Aria - 10k
DS Bikkuri-man - 3k
donny2112 said:Some updated Famitsu numbers.
Code:GBA Famicom Mini Super Mario Brothers 1,254,381 (20061231) GBA Super Mario Advance 4: Super Mario Bros. 3 718,207 (20061231) NDS Super Mario 64 DS 1,042,322 (20070701)
Also, thanks for being willing to replace the numbers!
More from ethelred in this thread.
GBC Zelda: Oracle of Ages/Seasons 746,054
GCN Super Mario Sunshine 789,989
N64 Super Mario 64 1,639,921
cvxfreak said:
Not too bad for Crystal Chronicles (though I'll admit I hoped for more). We'll see how it does over the weekend. Sinobi's note about its performance vs. FF3 and RW isn't promising, though. :/
AlternativeUlster said:
The fourth game already came out in Japan, earlier this year. The US is getting both the fourth and the third game, but we're getting the third first.
Moor-Angol
Banned
Forever Blue has come back on the shelves, but i feel this game missed the train, people has eyes only for Mario Party 8 now...
AnimeTheme
Member
jesusraz said:
Shinobi said that SE had lowered the first shipment number due to the recent price collapse cases (It's a wonderful world and FF12i).
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
I think sinobi says that FFCC has a 50% sell through, so ~240k shipment. Looks like SE wants to be conservative again, maybe this time they can restock it sooner than in other cases.
NintendosBooger
Member
wtf is Square Enix doing? This is the 3rd or 4th time they've undershipped. Are they allergic to high game sales? I've never seen anything like it.
NintendosBooger said:
Did you not read the posts above? They got extremely low sell-through on It's a Wonderful World and FFXII International, so now they're being more cautious again.
In any event, 50% sellthrough on FFCC isn't undershipping. Let's first wait to see if the demand matches the retail order and if they fail to supply additional games if the demand exceeds that.
apotema said:
Not with the way Japanese retail works. If a game doesn't sell a really good portion of its order, they'll cut the prices pretty quickly.
Famitsu July 30-August 5
1. WII Mario Party 8 147084 / 429473
2. PS2 J-League Winning Eleven 2007 Club Championship 136530 / NEW
3. PS3 Minna no Golf 5 43270 / 219020
4. NDS It's a Wonderful World 40926 / 122252
5. WII Wii Sports 27391 / 1840979
6. PS2 Jikkyou Power Pro Baseball 14 25257 / 226157
7. WII Wii Play 24859 / 1428207
8. NDS Facening Training 22526 / NEW
9. NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass 21647 / 701541
10. NDS New Super Mario Bros. 21524 / 4702056
11. NDS Brain Training 2 21418 / 4566749
12. WII Dragon Quest Swords: The Masked Queen and the Tower of Mirrors 19339 / 420263
13. NDS Mario Kart DS 19268 / 2334982
14. NDS Animal Crossing: Wild World 18689 / 4266849
15. PSP GTA: Liberty City Stories 18129 / 56814
16. NDS Itadaki Street DS 17887 / 304892
17. WII Forever Blue 17567 / NEW
18. NDS More English Training 16922 / 454073
19. NDS Observation Training 15908 / 487093
20. WII Mobile Suit Gundam 0079 15489 / 59148
21. NDS Taiko Drum Master 15018 / 104176
22. NDS English Training 11666 / 1932114
23. NDS Naruto Shippuuden: Saikyou Ninja Daikesshuu 5 11606 / 54471
24. NDS Brain Training 11171 / 3453663
25. 360 Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion 10165 / 55662
26. PSP Monster Hunter Portable 2 10027 / 1265380
27. NDS Pokemon Diamond/Pearl 9963 / 5264580
28. PS2 Pachi-Para 14: Wind, Clouds, and the Super Sea in Okinawa 9260 / 33712
29. WII Jikkyou Power Pro Baseball Wii 8408 / 72388
30. NDS Mushi King Super Collection 8253 / 51058
While the title of the page hasn't changed (July 30-August 5), I thought last night when I looked at it that it had data for games released August 9. Now, it is purely for July 30-August 5, though. Strange. :-/
1. WII Mario Party 8 147084 / 429473
2. PS2 J-League Winning Eleven 2007 Club Championship 136530 / NEW
3. PS3 Minna no Golf 5 43270 / 219020
4. NDS It's a Wonderful World 40926 / 122252
5. WII Wii Sports 27391 / 1840979
6. PS2 Jikkyou Power Pro Baseball 14 25257 / 226157
7. WII Wii Play 24859 / 1428207
8. NDS Facening Training 22526 / NEW
9. NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass 21647 / 701541
10. NDS New Super Mario Bros. 21524 / 4702056
11. NDS Brain Training 2 21418 / 4566749
12. WII Dragon Quest Swords: The Masked Queen and the Tower of Mirrors 19339 / 420263
13. NDS Mario Kart DS 19268 / 2334982
14. NDS Animal Crossing: Wild World 18689 / 4266849
15. PSP GTA: Liberty City Stories 18129 / 56814
16. NDS Itadaki Street DS 17887 / 304892
17. WII Forever Blue 17567 / NEW
18. NDS More English Training 16922 / 454073
19. NDS Observation Training 15908 / 487093
20. WII Mobile Suit Gundam 0079 15489 / 59148
21. NDS Taiko Drum Master 15018 / 104176
22. NDS English Training 11666 / 1932114
23. NDS Naruto Shippuuden: Saikyou Ninja Daikesshuu 5 11606 / 54471
24. NDS Brain Training 11171 / 3453663
25. 360 Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion 10165 / 55662
26. PSP Monster Hunter Portable 2 10027 / 1265380
27. NDS Pokemon Diamond/Pearl 9963 / 5264580
28. PS2 Pachi-Para 14: Wind, Clouds, and the Super Sea in Okinawa 9260 / 33712
29. WII Jikkyou Power Pro Baseball Wii 8408 / 72388
30. NDS Mushi King Super Collection 8253 / 51058
While the title of the page hasn't changed (July 30-August 5), I thought last night when I looked at it that it had data for games released August 9. Now, it is purely for July 30-August 5, though. Strange. :-/
Square2005
Banned
Yeah FAmitsu messed up and originally posted doubled-over Oban week sales (8/6-8/19) - they're suppost to post those next week. I 'd like to go back and see them again instead of having to wait til next Thursday.donny2112 said:
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Hmm, must not have been up very long. I saved the page as soon as I noticed it stopped showing the one from a few weeks back, and it's the same as what they've got up now.Square2005 said:
donny2112 said:
Donny,
I have saved the unique version (the one that have data for games released August 9). If you wanted to, I can send the data to you. Or I could just post the data for those August 9 game here :
Code:
SDガンダム Gジェネレーション クロスドライブ【バンダイナムコゲームス】 18万1429
ドンキーコング ジャングルクライマー【任天堂】 80740
ファイナルファンタジーXII インターナショナル ゾディアック ジョブ システム【スクウェア・エニックス】
76004 (Poor FFXII International)
ワイルドアームズ クロスファイア【ソニー・コンピュータエンタテインメントジャパン】 38030
ワンタメ うらないチャンネル【カプコン】 34810If you can translate the name of the game, it will be wonderful.
ethelred said:
Top 10 Worst legs for NDS games, that cover those DS games that has been out at least 60 days since launch, up to July 29, 2007 :
FFXII:RW : 79.98%
Super Robot Wars W : 62.35%
Planet Puzzle League DS : 55.16%
Gyakuten Saiban 4 : 52.75%
Naruto Saikyou Ninja Daikesshu 4 : 51.57%
Sangokushi Taisen DS : 51.40%
Tales of the Tempest : 50.34%
Death Note : 50.09%
Final Fantasy III : 49.98% (shortage effect)
Jump Superstars : 47.64%
I think it is safe to say that FFCC will AT LEAST do twice their first week launch. On average, DS games managed to get the <40% legs, so it is safe to assume that FFCC will most probably do 2.5 times their first week sales. If it can get 200K first week, then it can go to 500K range.
Cheesemeister
Member
apujanata said:
[NDS] SD Gundam: G Generation Cross Drive (Bandai-Namco)
[NDS] Donkey Kong: Jungle Climber (Nintendo)
[PS2] Final Fantasy XII: International Edition (Square-Enix)
[PSP] Wild Arms: Crossfire (Sony)
[NDS] Won!tertainment: Fortune Channel (Capcom)
Thunder Monkey
Banned
You put way too much detail into this stuff.Cheesemeister said:
OCD? It's not a bad thing if you know how to use it.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
On the other hand, that list shows that even though DS games have big legs, the FF games on them have been among the smallest.apujanata said:
Cheesemeister
Member
Thunder Monkey said:
You don't know me too well. It's a simply copy-paste from the program-generated OP content.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
I don't know me too well either... so....Cheesemeister said:
Calculating legs via statistics of launch sales against totals is a bit misleading though. Legs measure longevity of a game's presence on a chart, not the amount it's actually selling, although it is an important detail as well. Notable Final Fantasy games sell big numbers at launch by default, so we can almost always expect it to have larger percentages even if it has longer legs than a game that sells 20% of its LTD at launch.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Walter Matthau
Member
cvxfreak said:
I was actually expecting way lower. I don't think people really connect Crystal Chronicles with Final Fantasy, despite the name.
JoshuaJSlone said:
On the other hand, Square Enix has this games on NDS :
Code:
Dragon Quest Heroes : Rocket Slime : 14.97%
Chocobo and the Magic Picture Book : 20.77%
Heroes of Mana (Seiken Densetsu) : 24.40% (Ethelred's bomba and Lance's success)It is up to you to decide whether FFCC will have a FFIII like legs, or DQH:RS legs. If it is FFIII, FFCC will not be a million seller. If DQH:RS legs, it will be million seller (since it will at least break 140K first week sales).
Well, your statement is true. However, it is much more difficult to maintain the record of games presence on a chart, so the percentage is just a way to calculate that effect.cvxfreak said:
Remember New SMB ? Even though it has big first week (865K), it still managed a health percentage : 18.48%
Pokemon Diamond & Pearl, with first week of 1,586,360, still managed a good (better than NDS's average) percentage : 30.19%
Moor-Angol
Banned
JoshuaJSlone said:
FF games on DS have the smallest percentages for the franchise, take a look at PS1 and PS2 games
They usually have 65-70%, as cvxfreak said, and basically FF games have a strong start and short legs, but consider FF3 still managed 60k in the 2007 first half...
The only franchise who kept short legs even on DS is Super Robot Taisen.
ComputerNerd
Banned
Xeke said:
What was the GC userbase when Crystal Chronicles came out?
ComputerNerd
Banned
Oh, it's the DS version?
I thought it was the Wii version. Oops.
I thought it was the Wii version. Oops.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
That one would be 2008 at the earliest I'd say.ComputerNerd said:
And it looks pretty too.