Support NeoGAF

[danielijohnson]

Borrowing Michan's Mario chart (which is a week out of date):

At this point it's guaranteed that NSMBW will be the third best selling Mario game ever. I am extremely confident it will pass Super Mario Land.

It's a perfect storm of Mario, nostalgia, more recent nostalgia (NSMB), launch window, marketing, and pure, joyous fun.

 

[swerve]

Nintendo's internally developed games are from another planet when it comes to sales. I don't know if Japanese consumers are hypnotically drawn to them or what.

Rhythm Heaven had a big advantage in Japan, in that it includes tracks produced by a prominent, famouse Japanese music and 'talent' maker, and at least one of the songs from the game was also being played everywhere for weeks after launch.

Tomodachi Collection has the sort of surprising, nonsensically brilliant calendar-based events throughout which make it a sort of surreal Animal Crossing. Like Brain Age, Nintendogs, Animal Crossing and Girl's Mode, it grows over time and your attachment to it grows with it.

They are the sort of products that people play with or show to friends. The friends then want to own them too. If your game generates laughter and the desire to show others the fun you're having, your marketing is half done.

The other half of your marketing involves supporting the product *past the first week* with sustained tv, print and online activities, which not everyone can afford to do of course. But it is much easier if the game is fun, if the marketing team believe in the game, and if the game is of a high enough quality to back up the marketing spend and give a significant return on that thus making it easier to convince your marketing team to do the same next time.

I'd say that - at least with their 'break out hits' but also with things like Mario Kart - Nintendo has proved that post-launch marketing can be significantly more important than pre-launch, contrary to almost all of gaming history.

And they should have told Capcom about this too, because they really stopped pushing MH3 as soon as it was launched when they could have supported it with national contests (not just new famitsu quests) and a big 'here's what to buy with your Wii this holiday' campaign. It definitely would have already brought in enough money to justify that.

Sorry if rambling. Just back in from new year celebrations. Happy New Year Sales Age!

 

[dolemite]

If the sales pattern holds, FFXIII will sell another 80k next week.

 

[kswiston]

Can we get an updated Famitsu Top 50 LTD? I know that a couple posters used to have nicely formatted versions of the list, but I haven't seen one in awhile. I would imagine that NSMB WII has entered the top 50 by now.

 

[donny2112]

As for FFXIII's second week, the drop off is consistent with FFX-2 (along with the first week numbers), so if it stays on track, it'll stop at just about exactly 2 million. If it starts to drop off even more, it will stop just before 2 million just like FFX-2. Either way, this is definitely a bigger success than anyone on GAF predicted.

Wrong. I was saying a 1.5m first week with a 1.8-1.9m LTD as early as May. That obviously changed in the predictions as we got that erroneous report of 1.3m first week, but this is not a bigger success than anyone on GAF predicted.

Edit:
Of course at the same time, I was predicting YTD for Wii to be 2-3x PS360 in Japan, so it's not all roses and sunshine for predictions. :lol

 

[Moor-Angol]

Mario in 2D has a great fashion over japanese people, don't forget Famicom Mini Super Mario Bros sold over 1M just 5 years ago, and it was a port from the best selling title of all time in Japan.

But i think the key for this success is the multiplayer mode, every commercial here in Japan are focused on multiplayer, as most of the commercial for Wii games i watched on tv: you usually see a family playing a Wii game and enjoying their time together.

 

[cvxfreak]

The only thing that seems to throw a wrench at the whole 2D > 3D equation is how Super Mario 64 DS sold far and beyond any of the GBA versions, including the Famicom Mini games.

I guess we can attribute this to the strength of the DS over the GBA, but I have to wonder if Super Mario 64's design in particular holds the key to capturing Japanese audiences in a way that Sunshine and Galaxy couldn't (and Sunshine could very well have been more popular than Galaxy is today had it not been for the GameCube's stupidly low sales).

3D Mario will never outsell 2D Mario again, but that doesn't mean they both can't be successful multi-million sellers.

 

[Captain Smoker]

Can we get an updated Famitsu Top 50 LTD? I know that a couple posters used to have nicely formatted versions of the list, but I haven't seen one in awhile. I would imagine that NSMB WII has entered the top 50 by now.

NSMB Wii would be #41 in the All-Time Top50 now.

Tomodachi Collection would be #47.


I'm going to make an update in January when we get the Famitsu numbers, 'cause I don't like to mix Media Create und Famitsu. ^^

 

[ksamedi]

Rhythm Heaven had a big advantage in Japan, in that it includes tracks produced by a prominent, famouse Japanese music and 'talent' maker, and at least one of the songs from the game was also being played everywhere for weeks after launch.

Tomodachi Collection has the sort of surprising, nonsensically brilliant calendar-based events throughout which make it a sort of surreal Animal Crossing. Like Brain Age, Nintendogs, Animal Crossing and Girl's Mode, it grows over time and your attachment to it grows with it.

They are the sort of products that people play with or show to friends. The friends then want to own them too. If your game generates laughter and the desire to show others the fun you're having, your marketing is half done.

The other half of your marketing involves supporting the product *past the first week* with sustained tv, print and online activities, which not everyone can afford to do of course. But it is much easier if the game is fun, if the marketing team believe in the game, and if the game is of a high enough quality to back up the marketing spend and give a significant return on that thus making it easier to convince your marketing team to do the same next time.

I'd say that - at least with their 'break out hits' but also with things like Mario Kart - Nintendo has proved that post-launch marketing can be significantly more important than pre-launch, contrary to almost all of gaming history.

And they should have told Capcom about this too, because they really stopped pushing MH3 as soon as it was launched when they could have supported it with national contests (not just new famitsu quests) and a big 'here's what to buy with your Wii this holiday' campaign. It definitely would have already brought in enough money to justify that.

Sorry if rambling. Just back in from new year celebrations. Happy New Year Sales Age!

Yep, if Nintendo wants more third party support they need to teach them how to be succesfull on the Wii. Be it in game design or marketing support. They probably studied this market thoroughly and have a lot of experience with it for years now. They should share their knowledge.

 

[donny2112]

Nomura and his Sony fanboyism!!!

http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2009/12/29/tetsuya_nomura_true_intentions/

Spoiler

 

[Onesimos]

Mario in 2D has a great fashion over japanese people, don't forget Famicom Mini Super Mario Bros sold over 1M just 5 years ago, and it was a port from the best selling title of all time in Japan.

I think you are thinking about best-selling home console game of all time, as according to this list below (it is outdated) two Pokemon games on the GameBoy sold more copies that Super Mario Bros.

 

[schuelma]

The only thing that seems to throw a wrench at the whole 2D > 3D equation is how Super Mario 64 DS sold far and beyond any of the GBA versions, including the Famicom Mini games.

I guess we can attribute this to the strength of the DS over the GBA, but I have to wonder if Super Mario 64's design in particular holds the key to capturing Japanese audiences in a way that Sunshine and Galaxy couldn't (and Sunshine could very well have been more popular than Galaxy is today had it not been for the GameCube's stupidly low sales).

3D Mario will never outsell 2D Mario again, but that doesn't mean they both can't be successful multi-million sellers.

I wonder if Galaxy 2 is going to have more 2D type parts to it.

 

[Captain Smoker]

I think you are thinking about best-selling home console game of all time, as according to this list below (it is outdated) two Pokemon games on the GameBoy sold more copies that Super Mario Bros.

http://i46.tinypic.com/mipfo4.png

Note:

It's Pokémon Silver/Gold/Crystal (not only Gold & Silver)


But the list is old as I said, I'll post the updated version in January.

 

[donny2112]

Release them on PS3.

Yeah. Is it reasonable to think that Tales may sell best as an accompanying title to the main Final Fantasy base? Obviously doesn't work well with just looking at PSP, but are the core Tales buyers on PSP mostly those who would own a PS3, too?

 

[ksamedi]

I wonder if Galaxy 2 is going to have more 2D type parts to it.

I doubt they will release it Q1, though. It could conflict (in terms of sales) with NSMBW.

 

[schuelma]

I doubt they will release it Q1, though. It could conflict (in terms of sales) with NSMBW.

Maybe not Q1 but I still think its coming before Golden Week in April.

 

[cvxfreak]

I wonder if Galaxy 2 is going to have more 2D type parts to it.

I think New Super Mario 64 would definitely sell more than Galaxy and Galaxy 2.

Yeah. Is it reasonable to think that Tales may sell best as an accompanying title to the main Final Fantasy base? Obviously doesn't work well with just looking at PSP, but are the core Tales buyers on PSP mostly those who would own a PS3, too?

I... guess? I'm not a Tales fan, so I can only guess, but the disparity between Vesperia and Graces really proves a point. I really can only explain the RE userbase decently. :lol

 

[kswiston]

What are people expecting sales-wise from Super Mario Galaxy 2? We've never had two 3D Mario games in one generation before. Part of me hopes that the much larger Wii install base, Positive word of mouth from the first Galaxy, and spillover hype from NSMB Wii (to a lesser extent) will lead to higher sales for the sequel, but you never know.

 

[ksamedi]

Maybe not Q1 but I still think its coming before Golden Week in April.

I don't know, wouldn't that be too close to NSMBW? I personally expect something like Wii Relax or something.

 

[schuelma]

What are people expecting sales-wise from Super Mario Galaxy 2? We've never had two 3D Mario games in one generation before. Part of me hopes that the much larger Wii install base, Positive word of mouth from the first Galaxy, and spillover hype from NSMB Wii (to a lesser extent) will lead to higher sales for the sequel, but you never know.

Yeah I have no clue. Could see it going either way.

 

[cvxfreak]

What are people expecting sales-wise from Super Mario Galaxy 2? We've never had two 3D Mario games in one generation before. Part of me hopes that the much larger Wii install base, Positive word of mouth from the first Galaxy, and spillover hype from NSMB Wii (to a lesser extent) will lead to higher sales for the sequel, but you never know.

I think it will sell less than the first Galaxy unless Nintendo becomes very clever with the advertising campaign, and I'm not sure that can be done other than tapping into people's nostalgia with SM64. I expect sales akin to Zelda Spirit Tracks.

NSMB Wii will be ahead of Galaxy 2 on the Famitsu/MC charts within a month of launch; perhaps within two months at best. NSMB DS within three months.

 

[KGKK]

Yay for NSBW, amazing game. Its my LBP for this year. Before it my Wii barely got touched other than the occasional Wii Sport/Mario Kart/Party since it is our family system. No one plays single players games on it.
Everyone in my household is addicted to NSBW

 

[Road]

On the topic of curiosities, Tomodachi Collection has logged 28 consecutive weeks since launch without ever going below 50,000 (Famitsu).



I checked other games with ridiculous legs and the best I found was AC:WW with 20 weeks and NSMB, 19 weeks.

 

[Oxx]

Crazy. And I was asking whether or not TC would reach 2m by the end of the year.

 

[Rocksteady33]

Does anyone find it surprising that Wii Fit+ has caught up to WSR so quickly? I know there's a price difference but I feel WSR has been a bit of a slow burner.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

What is Final Fantasy XII? I thought it was a tad Western.

I see where you're coming from. In early 2006 I played KOTOR, and wondered what it would be like to see a major JRPG developer try something with a world/battle setup like that. I was pretty psyched later in the year to realize a mainline Final Fantasy was pretty much answering my question.

 

[test_account]

Week 1 -> Week 2

FFX: - 87 %
FFXII: - 87 %
FFXIII: - 87 %

(Famitsu for FFX, Media Create for FFXII/FFXIII)

Oh, and it's a spin-off, but that's the only FF who was launched at the same time in the year. (12/18, 12/17 for FFXIII)
Dissidia: - 64 % (Media Create)

I found it interesting that the Week 1 -> Week 2 drop is 87% for FFX, FFXII and FFXIII

 

[Clear]

Given economic and market conditions FFXIII being so inline with previous franchise entry sales should be heartening for both Sony and SE.

All things being equal its a very positive result for the brand. After all, when FFX and FFXII were released market conditions were far more heavily stacked in Sony's favour.

Looking forwards it augurs well for Versus XIII's sales, as it looks to be far more substantial a successor than X-2 was to X.

 

[dolemite]

Looking at that top 50 list, it appears that FFXIII will be the first title not to make the list. The lack of userbase is now apparent.

 

[Chris1964]

Still have nothing...

Hmm, I was sure I had sent you the top 10 formatted before I logged out. I can't understand what went wrong.

Media Create

After 4 weeks:
[WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 506.000 / 2.440.000
[NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) - 200.037 / 1.678.646

After 1 week:
[NDS] The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks (Nintendo) - 291.000 / 291.000
[NDS] The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass (Nintendo) - 302.887 / 302.887

After 28 weeks:
[NDS] Friend Collection (Nintendo) - 277.000 / 2.317.000
[NDS] Animal Crossing: Wild World (Nintendo) - 28.552 / 2.774.649

After 2 weeks:
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square Enix) - 189.000 / 1.690.000
[PS2] Final Fantasy XII (Square Enix) - 237.678 / 2.001.944

After 16 weeks:
[NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold / Soul Silver (Pokemon Co.) - 125.000 / 3.465.000
[NDS] Pokemon Diamond (Pokemon Co.) - 22.982 / 2.502.801
[NDS] Pokemon Pearl (Pokemon Co.) - (no numbers - 13th position)

After 13 weeks:
[WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) - 114.000 / 1.315.000
[WII] Wii Fit (Nintendo) - 61.922 / 1.545.937

Inazuma Eleven 2 has no competition from Inazuma Eleven

After 27 weeks:
[WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 72.000 / 1.568.000
[WII] Wii Sports (Nintendo) - 28.612 / 1.657.818

After 6 weeks:
[WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii 2 (Namco Bandai) - 64.000 / 200.000
[WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii (Namco Bandai) - (no numbers for the week - 12th position) / 290.000

After 5 weeks:
[NDS] Professor Layton and the Flute of Malevolent Destiny (Level 5) - 64.000 / 559.000
[NDS] Professor Layton and the Last Time Travel (Level 5) - (no numbers for the week - 12th position) / 610.161
[NDS] Professor Layton and the Diabolical Box (Level 5) - 79.500 / 606.678
[NDS] Professor Layton and the Curious Village (Level 5) - 31.371 / 297.388

 

[Chris1964]

Media Create 2009 top 10 (weeks 1-52)

01. [NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies (Square Enix) - 4.043.218 / NEW
02. [NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold / Soul Silver (Pokemon Co.) - 3.465.000 / NEW
03. [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 2.440.000 / NEW
04. [NDS] Friend Collection (Nintendo) - 2.317.000 / NEW
05. [PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square Enix) - 1.690.000 / NEW
06. [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 1.568.000 / NEW
07. [WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) - 1.315.000 / NEW
08. [WII] Monster Hunter 3 (Capcom) - 931.705 / NEW
09. [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 2: Threat of the Invaders - Fire / Blizzard (Level 5) - 908.000 / NEW
10. [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (PSP the Best) (Capcom) - 848.742 / 1.057.270

Every LTD is up to 27/12/09 except for

Dragon Quest IX
Monster Hunter 3
Monster Hunter Freedom Unite

which are up to 29/11/09

 

[oldie-newbie]

We don't get exact numbers for a lot of Europe but its #1 in Netherlands, France, and Germany, #3 in the UK and Ireland and #4 in Finland, Italy, and Norway.

So yes I think its a safe bet to assume its selling just as well in Europe

NSMBWii would do better if it was not supply constrained. In my town (Tours, FRANCE), it is virtually sold out everywhere and some people were searching about it when I visited the game shops yesterday afternoon!!!

 

[Regulus Tera]

I think the interesting story here is how Inazuma Eleven 2 rolled over its predecessor's legs. Was it the multiple versions? Was it help by the anime? Did some new intriguing gameplay idea elevate it to almost million seller status?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Me and my buddy had a sweet snowball fight with used FFXIIIs today in Tokyo. To protect ourselves we made forts out of used copies of FFXIII.

Spoiler

in other words, the "stacks" have arrived.

 

[schuelma]

NSMBWii would do better if it was not supply constrained. In my town (Tours, FRANCE), it is virtually sold out everywhere and some people were searching about it when I visited the game shops yesterday afternoon!!!

Sounds like Nintendo underestimated demand all over the world.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

2-year break before the next game and hold off on shit spinoffs until it is finished. Then release it on the PS3 (or Wii2 if it is out by then, or better yet both).

That's what would make me care about a Tales game again. But no way in hell they are going to give the milking machine a rest.

Bingo. Semiannual releases will just burn-out your buying audience, especially if some are subpar. To build this as a brand, they should be releasing no more than one game every 2 years, and they should all be of exceptional quality.

 

[Slick Vic]

Looking at that Top 50, I can't believe the 11 bestselling games of all time are Nintendo games. Looks like top 13 eventually with NSMBW and Pokemon.

I also didn't realize how much Resident Evil had fallen off. Yikes.

 

[DMeisterJ]

Media Create 2009 top 10 (weeks 1-52)

01. [NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies (Square Enix) - 4.043.218 / NEW
02. [NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold / Soul Silver (Pokemon Co.) - 3.465.000 / NEW
03. [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 2.440.000 / NEW
04. [NDS] Friend Collection (Nintendo) - 2.317.000 / NEW
05. [PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square Enix) - 1.690.000 / NEW
06. [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 1.568.000 / NEW
07. [WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) - 1.315.000 / NEW
08. [WII] Monster Hunter 3 (Capcom) - 931.705 / NEW
09. [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 2: Threat of the Invaders - Fire / Blizzard (Level 5) - 908.000 / NEW
10. [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (PSP the Best) (Capcom) - 848.742 / 1.057.270

Every LTD is up to 27/12/09 except for

Dragon Quest IX
Monster Hunter 3
Monster Hunter Freedom Unite

which are up to 29/11/09

MHP2G is amazing. It'll be 2 years old in Feb, and it still made it in the top 10 for the year. It's also the only holdover from last year. I hope for Sony that Capcom has MHP3 out sometime next year, PSP will be in need of another long tailed title soon.

 

[DR2K]

Looking at that top 50 list, it appears that FFXIII will be the first title not to make the list. The lack of userbase is now apparent.

If they count Best of re-releases it might.

 

[Osuwari]

I think you are thinking about best-selling home console game of all time, as according to this list below (it is outdated) two Pokemon games on the GameBoy sold more copies that Super Mario Bros.

aren't the pokemon games kinda cheating in the chart since they're multiple SKUs?

 

[d[-_-]b]

aren't the pokemon games kinda cheating in the chart since they're multiple SKUs?

Wouldn't they take up more slots if they weren't grouped together...

 

[donny2112]

aren't the pokemon games kinda cheating in the chart since they're multiple SKUs?

That list rolls up International Editions and BEST re-releases into each games total (if those sales are available), too. Even if Pokemon sales were readily available as separate SKUs, they'd probably still be combined on that chart.

Captain Smoker,
Are you going to combine Diamond/Pearl and Platinum, when you update the chart next month?

 

[Busaiku]

After 5 weeks:
[NDS] Professor Layton and the Flute of Malevolent Destiny (Level 5) - 64.000 / 559.000
[NDS] Professor Layton and the Last Time Travel (Level 5) - (no numbers for the week - 12th position) / 610.161
[NDS] Professor Layton and the Diabolical Box (Level 5) - 79.500 / 606.678
[NDS] Professor Layton and the Curious Village (Level 5) - 31.371 / 297.388

The Professor Layton movie already hit theaters right?

It's a shame that it probably didn't do much at all for the series.
It might have helped it maintain its legs, but it's still performing worse than its predecessors.

I guess the mass release of all those budget puzzle games from Level 5 might have hurt it.
Still, I thought the 2 games and the movie would've helped push it beyond a million.

It's still a big release, but I wonder how the other 2 prequels will do, since they'll be coming out during the DS's final window.

 

[nextgeneration]

Sounds like Nintendo underestimated demand all over the world.

Yup, no question about it. Seeing as how Galaxy didn't even sell 1 million in Japan (or has it?), they probably wanted to play it more conservatively with nsmb.

 

[grandjedi6]

Sounds like Nintendo underestimated demand all over the world.

Not necessarily. You can only print so many units of a product at once. Its entirely feasible that they knew demand outstripped supply but couldn't do anything about it.

 

[nextgeneration]

Not necessarily. You can only print so many units of a product at once. Its entirely feasible that they knew demand outstripped supply but couldn't do anything about it.

I find this hard to believe, as all you have to do is look at is Modern Warfare 2. There are bazillion copies of that everywhere. I think this is simply a matter of Nintendo (wrongfully) lowering their expectations of how nsmb wii would sell, given the low ltd (relative to the 2d Marios) of Galaxy in Japan. Not sure how Galaxy performed in US and Europe, but in Japan, I think most would consider it a disappointment, sales wise.

 

[Busaiku]

I really don't think the supply issue is as pronounced as some believe it to be.

 

[Oblivion]

Hooooooooooly shit. NSMBW is a BEAST.

Those seem like decent numbers for ST. How does it compare to PH's first week?

edit: NM. Chris posted it already.

 

[kswiston]

I find this hard to believe, as all you have to do is look at is Modern Warfare 2. There are bazillion copies of that everywhere. I think this is simply a matter of Nintendo (wrongfully) lowering their expectations of how nsmb wii would sell, given the low ltd (relative to the 2d Marios) of Galaxy in Japan. Not sure how Galaxy performed in US and Europe, but in Japan, I think most would consider it a disappointment, sales wise.

Galaxy shipped 8 million copies worldwide. Not sure what US only sales are LTD, but I would imagine it is 3M+. It hit 2.5M in its first two months.

 

[Somnid]

I find this hard to believe, as all you have to do is look at is Modern Warfare 2. There are bazillion copies of that everywhere. I think this is simply a matter of Nintendo (wrongfully) lowering their expectations of how nsmb wii would sell, given the low ltd (relative to the 2d Marios) of Galaxy in Japan. Not sure how Galaxy performed in US and Europe, but in Japan, I think most would consider it a disappointment, sales wise.

Part of the evergreen strategy I would imagine is not overshipping your game so stores have to discount it and thus permanently lower the perceived value. For example, I would never buy a music game at full price because they are constantly fire-saled a few months later when stores run out of space for plastic instruments. This effect along with market saturation has killed the music game market. The same is true of PC games in the US, they get bargain binned so fast that you'd be an idiot to ever pay full price. If you try to keep a smaller stock then stores are less likely to do something that will devalue your game.

They learned their lesson with Animal Crossing and Wii Music last year.