Support NeoGAF

[velvet_nitemare]

SO4 however will struggle past 100k

Do you mean Star Ocean 4? The game is supposed to be rubbish, but come on, that number is low and would be a huge bomb.

 

[KingDizzi]

Do you mean Star Ocean 4? The game is supposed to be rubbish, but come on, that number is low and would be a huge bomb.

Last I checked Comgnet a few days ago it had 63pt while DQ 6 was at 950pt, I don't see anything wrong with my estimation. Comgnet has been a pretty indication for how a game will do in the past and don't see that changing anytime soon.

 

[velvet_nitemare]

Last I checked Comgnet a few days ago it had 63pt while DQ 6 was at 950pt, I don't see anything wrong with my estimation. Comgnet has been a pretty indication for how a game will do in the past and don't see that changing anytime soon.

Aren't those pre-order numbers? Anyways, we'll see. It won't be ToV redux tho.

 

[schuelma]

Aren't those pre-order numbers? Anyways, we'll see. It won't be ToV redux tho.

We'll see..but yeah right now the internet preorder indicators are very very poor.

 

[grandjedi6]

Iwata gives some more tips about DS and Wii successors

http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2010/02/02/iwata_on_ds_and_wii_hd/


:lol

:lol Reggie should probably give Iwata a call about a man named Pachter.

 

[Nirolak]

Oh, I wouldn't be surprised to see this game fall into the Fall or even Q1 2011 at this rate.

I was just quite curious to see what a hypothetical super March would look like. Seems it won't be happening though. :lol

Oh come on...

Apparently I was actually right. :lol :lol

We believe that launching the product this fall, before Christmas, but not yet decided.

So it seems that GT5 is now targeted at Fall 2010, but they're not sure if it will make it out by then.

 

[duckroll]

http://news.finance.yahoo.co.jp/detail/20100202-00935006-fisf-stocks

Koei Tecmo sees share prices drop after posting losses. Blames poor sales on Sengoku Musou 3 on the Wii, a tougher online game market, and delays on overseas releases.

So I guess it's official now, the sales are a disappointment to Koei and we can stop speculating if they might have been happy - they're not.

 

[distantmantra]

They still don't expect Hokuto Musou to sell two million copies, do they?

 

[schuelma]

They still don't expect Hokuto Musou to sell two million copies, do they?

I thought it was "just" one million or so.

 

[Nirolak]

I thought it was "just" one million or so.

I believe you are right.

Edit:

Yes, here we go: http://kotaku.com/5382115/tecmo-koei-expects-fist-of-north-star-to-sell-a-million-domestically

 

[distantmantra]

It's a ridiculously loft goal. If Gundam Musou couldn't do it, there's no way Hokuto can.

 

[mutsu]

http://news.finance.yahoo.co.jp/detail/20100202-00935006-fisf-stocks

Koei Tecmo sees share prices drop after posting losses. Blames poor sales on Sengoku Musou 3 on the Wii, a tougher online game market, and delays on overseas releases.

So I guess it's official now, the sales are a disappointment to Koei and we can stop speculating if they might have been happy - they're not.

It's easy to blame the Wii for everything now.

I mean come on, what numbers were they expecting?

 

[Brofist]

It's easy to blame the Wii for everything now.

I mean come on, what numbers were they expecting?

Maybe something more in line with previous installments?

 

[cvxfreak]

If Koei lost money on Sengoku Musou 3, then that's really pathetic. :lol

 

[donny2112]

Maybe something more in line with previous installments?

You're referring to the falling train of sales for the previous installments?

Edit:
Link

 

[Brofist]

You're referring to the falling train of sales for the previous installments?

Well it was obvious they weren't going to pull the numbers of the first or even second, but they were probably expecting their dedicated fanbase to come though.

Kind of like the way Tales games don't do the same numbers as they used to but you could still expect a certain level of sales. <looks at ToG numbers> uhh nevermind

 

[donny2112]

Well it was obvious they weren't going to pull the numbers of the first or even second, but they were probably expecting their dedicated fanbase to come though.

It'll probably end up between 275K and 300K. That's directly between the last two Sengoku Musou 2 expansions. If they weren't expecting Sengoku Musou 2 numbers, how is that not seeming like the dedicated fanbase at work?

 

[Stumpokapow]

To be fair almost every Zelda development 'goes wrong' at some point. Iwata even joked about that during the latest Iwata Asks about Zelda. Still it's a shame that we never got a Zelda developed outside Japan.

he's referring to retro studios

 

[duckroll]

It'll probably end up between 275K and 300K. That's directly between the last two Sengoku Musou 2 expansions. If they weren't expecting Sengoku Musou 2 numbers, how is that not seeming like the dedicated fanbase at work?

You're assuming that Sengoku Musou has its own unique fanbase, and you're ignoring that the Musou series is much larger than just a single type of Musou. A numbered Musou or new type of entry in the Musou series typically draws over 300k in sales even today, on other platforms. Why are you ignoring this?

 

[mutsu]

It'll probably end up between 275K and 300K. That's directly between the last two Sengoku Musou 2 expansions. If they weren't expecting Sengoku Musou 2 numbers, how is that not seeming like the dedicated fanbase at work?

To be honest I think most developers and publishers are expecting they would have their dedicated fanbase at work, plus they also expect the casual gamers on the Wii to catch on as well. Even if a few percent of the casual gamer catches on, then it would have really helped the sales.

Unfortunately that almost never turned out to be the case on the Wii, which is why the companies are complaining.

 

[ethelred]

he's referring to retro studios

What did he say? I'm curious... not that I'm unhappy that the project was a disaster and ended up canceled, as I've no desire to see a first person Retro-developed Zelda game.

 

[donny2112]

Why are you ignoring this?

Oh, you mean those Musou games that never came out on the Wii? Gee, why wouldn't those users be on the system, too? I wonder.

Edit:
To recap,

kpop100 said that Koei was probably expecting something more in-line with the previous installments.
I pointed out that the previous installments were sharply declining.
kpop100 said that Koei probably wasn't expect 1 or 2 numbers, but expected the "dedicated fanbase" to come through.
I pointed out that 3 is going to come in between the last two expansions for 2. If they weren't expecting 2's numbers, why wouldn't 3's sales qualify as being from the "dedicated fanbase," as referenced by kpop100.

 

[mutsu]

Oh, you mean those Musou games that never came out on the Wii? Gee, why wouldn't those users be on the system, too? I wonder.

LOL, while I partly agree with this, I think this leads back to the argument of "If developers tried on the Wii, success would be assured".

You can argue that the more prominent Musou games like Sangoku and Gundam never made it to the Wii thus a lower profile Sengoku is doomed from the start.

You can also argue that Namco really tried with Tales of Graces, but still failed.

 

[donny2112]

You can argue that the more prominent Musou games like Sangoku and Gundam never made it to the Wii thus a lower profile Sengoku is doomed from the start.

You can also argue that Namco really tried with Tales of Graces, but still failed.

Third-party sales stink on the Wii. We have and will continue to debate the reasons, but the fact is, they stink. Sengoku Musou 3 didn't sell terribly. That's about all that's worth saying about that. :lol

 

[duckroll]

Oh, you mean those Musou games that never came out on the Wii? Gee, why wouldn't those users be on the system, too? I wonder.

This is a really flawed mindset. Firstly, you're now attempting to paint it such that most users only have a single console, and even though the Wii is the best selling system by far in Japan right now, that none of them are people who also own PS3s or 360s. Secondly, you are making the claim that because the Wii didn't previously have a Musou game, it hurts sales. How is this possible when the PS3 and PSP did not have Musou games on it either, before those which came out and were successful?

Are you seriously suggesting that Koei should not have expected good sales for a Musou game on the Wii because there is no chance of it at all? Are you saying the current sales should be considered good and that they have unrealistic expectations? Or are you just trying to play down the lack of success the game has seen on the Wii, because it happened to turn out bad? If the game sold well instead, would you not be using this as another great example of how core games CAN sell on the Wii?

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

Well, 3 declined less from 2 than 2 did from 1.:lol

They were clearly expecting more, but the sales aren't terrible, and I'm unconvinced that it would have sold much better on the PS3. Even if it did, would the slightly better sales (probably not talking more than 50-75k) make up for the higher production cost?

 

[Brofist]

It'll probably end up between 275K and 300K. That's directly between the last two Sengoku Musou 2 expansions. If they weren't expecting Sengoku Musou 2 numbers, how is that not seeming like the dedicated fanbase at work?

Not sure why you're comparing a main line game and expansion. Compare SW 2 and 3 main games and 3 will end up doing half or less. Maybe they expected it to bottom out at 400,000? That's still both quite a bit lower than 2 and higher than actual numbers.

 

[Stumpokapow]

What did he say? I'm curious... not that I'm unhappy that the project was a disaster and ended up canceled, as I've no desire to see a first person Retro-developed Zelda game.

[Nintex] quoted Shiggy, who said "The last time a team, which was not EAD, developed a Zelda title, it went terribly wrong - at least in Nintendo's opinion." but I don't think he caught that Shiggy wasn't referring to Nintendo doing some sort of post-mortem on OoA/OoS, Shiggy was referring to Nintendo shitcanning the Retro project.

I don't think there was ever any kind of official quote or anything about the project.

 

[Brofist]

Oh, you mean those Musou games that never came out on the Wii? Gee, why wouldn't those users be on the system, too? I wonder.

So now you are saying they released on the wrong system. Seems we are back to square 1

 

[donny2112]

This part of the post was unnecessary. Sorry, duckroll.

Edit:

and I'm unconvinced that it would have sold much better on the PS3.

Why?

Maybe they expected it to bottom out at 400,000? That's still both quite a bit lower than 2 and higher than actual numbers.

Just trying to figure out what you meant by "dedicated fanbase." 2 Xtreme Legends (300K) was an improvement from 2 Empires (200K), so I was guessing that was what you were referring to as a "dedicated fanbase."

So now you are saying they released on the wrong system. Seems we are back to square 1

Basically, yeah. They spent all that effort building up a Musou fanbase on PS3, and then they release the next mainline for Sengoku Musou on Wii?

Switching between handheld and console is one thing as you can make the argument that they're not completely the same market (e.g. MH), but imagine if Capcom had put all the PSP MH games on PS3 before coming out with MHG on Wii. :lol

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Secondly, you are making the claim that because the Wii didn't previously have a Musou game, it hurts sales. How is this possible when the PS3 and PSP did not have Musou games on it either, before those which came out and were successful?

Successor systems. The assumption was that the PS3 would be the future of the Musou series, and it was for a time. How many Musou games came out on the PS3? Gundam Musou and Shin Sangoku Musou 5 were in the first year of the system. I don't know that Koei ever said that if you were a Musou fan and wanted to play further Musou games, you should buy a PS3, but it was certainly implied by their actions.

 

[ccbfan]

Ah the mind of a wii damage controller.

When a series gets ports or side games before a main game - "Its obvious the reason the game failed was because the previous attempt(s) at this series series was not a main series and soiled the fanbase"

When a series' first game is a main series - "Its obvious the reason the game failed was because there was no previous attempts to build up the fanbase"

When a series' get a sequel thats similar to the first game (aka all musou games) - Its obvious the reason the game failed was it had a previous game similar to it and the fanbase doesn't want something similar"

Also ports on other systems bout the same as a brand new games on the Wii somehow is an argument pro the Wii.

Don't understand it but it is a amazing sight what bias can do to the human mind.

 

[Dalthien]

How is this possible when the PS3 and PSP did not have Musou games on it either, before those which came out and were successful?

Not to defend SM3 sales, because if they fell short of expectations, then they fell short of expectations.

But I'm trying to follow the logic from your comment above. Didn't Gundam Musou on the PS3 also miss expectations - and quite badly at that if I remember correctly. Using your Wii logic, wouldn't that also mean that the PS3 is also a bad choice for Musou.

Or what if Hokuto Musou falls short of Koei's expectations of a million units? Does that now mean that the PS3 is a bad choice for Musou.

I'm not understanding why the PS3 games that missed expectations are considered successful, but the Wii game that missed expectations is considered a failure. It just seems like you forgot to include some part of your argument.

Or maybe Koei just sucks at setting expectations? :lol

 

[duckroll]

Not to defend SM3 sales, because if they fell short of expectations, then they fell short of expectations.

But I'm trying to follow the logic from your comment above. Didn't Gundam Musou on the PS3 also miss expectations - and quite badly at that if I remember correctly. Using your Wii logic, wouldn't that also mean that the PS3 is also a bad choice for Musou.

Or what if Hokuto Musou falls short of Koei's expectations of a million units? Does that now mean that the PS3 is a bad choice for Musou.

I'm not understanding why the PS3 games that missed expectations are considered successful, but the Wii game that missed expectations is considered a failure. It just seems like you forgot to include some part of your argument.

Or maybe Koei just sucks at setting expectations? :lol

Gundam Musou wasn't even published by Koei. I was specifically referring to Shin Sangoku Musou, Musou Orochi and Multiraid. These are Musou titles published by Koei, and are much more comparable to Sengoku Musou as far as attracting the core Musou crowd which are into the historical characters the franchise has always been known for.

Gundam Musou and Hokuto Musou have really inflated expectations because they are licensed tie-ins, and yes, I think the expectations are unrealistic and dumb.

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

Why?

Because even the PS3 releases haven't really been that much better, and the Gundam one was, well, Gundam.

Judging by the declining sales of every entry in the franchise, I'm not convinced it would have sold much better on the PS3. I'm not denying it could have sold better, but I think we're talking about 50-75k, not 150k or so.

Accounting for the Wii being cheaper to develop for, I'm not sure that it could have been any more profitable on the PS3.

 

[distantmantra]

Gundam Musou and Hokuto Musou have really inflated expectations because they are licensed tie-ins, and yes, I think the expectations are unrealistic and dumb.

This. The dude at Koei is chasing windmills.

 

[Nirolak]

Dynasty Warriors 5: Empires

Dynasty Warriors 6: Empires

Samurai Warriors 3

Can someone remind me why we feel that the PS3 is notably more expensive to develop for as far as the Dynasty Warriors series is concerned?

The main character looks better on the PS3, and the enemies look better on the Wii. As a whole, it seems like they're literally using the same art assets for both otherwise.

I also have issues imagining that it costs a lot to program a PS3 game to look like an HD version of a low end PSP game.

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

I'll freely admit that I have no real first hand knowledge of how much games cost to produce on any system. I thought it was generally stated by most people in the industry that the PS3 was the most difficult and expensive of the consoles to develop for, while the Wii is generally the cheapest and least time consuming.

I wasn't trying to infer that Koei was busting the bank on their PS3 releases or anything, I was just assuming that Samurai Warriors 3 had a lower budget than any of their HD games.

 

[Nirolak]

I'll freely admit that I have no real first hand knowledge of how much games cost to produce on any system. I thought it was generally stated by most people in the industry that the PS3 was the most difficult and expensive of the consoles to develop for, while the Wii is generally the cheapest and least time consuming.

I wasn't trying to infer that Koei was busting the bank on their PS3 releases or anything, I was just assuming that Samurai Warriors 3 had a lower budget than any of their HD games.

If developers are really trying to push the systems to their limits, I definitely agree.

It's just that one thing we have to keep in mind is that not every developer actually tries to do it, so the platform it goes on can have very little impact on the actual budget.

It's definitely possible that Samurai Warriors 3 cost less than the HD games, but as far as I can judge from the screenshots, it doesn't look like it necessarily was.

I could be wrong though.

 

[Chris1964]

http://news.finance.yahoo.co.jp/detail/20100202-00935006-fisf-stocks

Koei Tecmo sees share prices drop after posting losses. Blames poor sales on Sengoku Musou 3 on the Wii, a tougher online game market, and delays on overseas releases.

What's the point of stocking games the last month of the FY when the company knows that the title won't probably make it on time? Do you make your stock holders happy?

So far there are many victoms of this stradegy, and some of them are very important.

GT5
MGS: Peace Walker
Quantum Theory
I'm not sure about EO III but it's right on deadline (April 1)

 

[bttb]

.

 

[onken]

Tekken man, what happened?

http://news.finance.yahoo.co.jp/detail/20100202-00935006-fisf-stocks

Koei Tecmo sees share prices drop after posting losses. Blames poor sales on Sengoku Musou 3 on the Wii, a tougher online game market, and delays on overseas releases.

So I guess it's official now, the sales are a disappointment to Koei and we can stop speculating if they might have been happy - they're not.

Not surprised.

 

[Chris1964]

http://www.bandainamco.co.jp/en

Bandai Namco FY2010 3Q Top 10 Game Titles (Oct~Dec, 2009)
01. [Multi] Ben 10 Alien Force (US,E) - 870K
02. [Multi] Ben 10 Protector of the Earth (US,E) - 540K
03. [PS3,360] Tales of Vesperia (WW) - 490K
04. [WII] Active Life: Extreme Challenge (WW) - 460K
05. [Multi] Ben 10 Alien Force 2 (US,E) - 430K
06. [PS3,360] Afro Samurai (US,E) - 420K
07. [PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam Gundam vs. Gundam (J,A) - 410K
08. [PS3,360] TEKKEN 6 (J,A) - 400K
09. [Wii] Taiko Drum Master 2 (J,A) - 380K
10. [PS2,Wii] SD Gundam G Generation Wars (J,A) - 370K

Overshipping at its best

 

[[Nintex]]

Koei bought Tecmo right?

That made no sense at all, they should've let Wada and Square-Enix gobble up the 'dead weight' considering Tecmo's best team is working on a Nintendo game right now. If Square-Enix didn't have Batman, Dragon Quest, Final Fantasy and a bunch of remakes to choose from they'd be in the same boat as the other Japanese publishers.

 

[gogogow]

If Square-Enix didn't have Batman, Dragon Quest, Final Fantasy and a bunch of remakes to choose from they'd be in the same boat as the other Japanese publishers.

Warner Bros owns the rights. Eidos nor Square Enix are involved in the next installment of Batman Arkham Asylum.

 

[AdventureRacing]

If Square-Enix didn't have Batman, Dragon Quest, Final Fantasy and a bunch of remakes to choose from they'd be in the same boat as the other Japanese publishers.

If nintendo didn't have mario, pokemon, the wii '_' games and a bunch of mario spinoffs they would be in a much much worse position.

In general if you remove any companies 3 biggest franchises they will obviously look a whole lot worse.

I understand what your saying that they are relying on a few key franchises but i think thats becoming more common nowadays (nintendo was probably a really poor example though:lol ).

 

[RaijinFY]

Thanks.

This is where DQVI ends up when it follows the respective ratios:

DQIV (NDS) ratio -> DQVI LTD 1,838,345
DQV (NDS) ratio -> DQVI LTD 1,574,361
DQV (PS2) ratio -> DQVI LTD 1,442,125
DQIV (PS1) ratio -> DQVI LTD 1,720,516

So DQVI has a chance to beat FFXIII LTD sales...

 

[duckroll]

What's the point of stocking games the last month of the FY when the company knows that the title won't probably make it on time? Do you make your stock holders happy?

So far there are many victoms of this stradegy, and some of them are very important.

GT5
MGS: Peace Walker
Quantum Theory
I'm not sure about EO III but it's right on deadline (April 1)

There are a few more. Trinity Zill'O is also delayed, so is NMH for PS3/360, .hack//Link. There might be more victims within the next month. Some delays were announced earlier than others, etc.

 

[akilshohen]

Warner Bros owns the rights. Eidos nor Square Enix are involved in the next installment of Batman Arkham Asylum.

Wouldn't that be a grey area? SE is publishing it in Japan (first one) and SE popped up as publisher on all NPD's for it....

http://www.bandainamco.co.jp/en

Bandai Namco FY2010 3Q Top 10 Game Titles (Oct~Dec, 2009)
01. [Multi] Ben 10 Alien Force (US,E) - 870K
02. [Multi] Ben 10 Protector of the Earth (US,E) - 540K
03. [PS3,360] Tales of Vesperia (WW) - 490K
04. [WII] Active Life: Extreme Challenge (WW) - 460K
05. [Multi] Ben 10 Alien Force 2 (US,E) - 430K
06. [PS3,360] Afro Samurai (US,E) - 420K
07. [PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam Gundam vs. Gundam (J,A) - 410K
08. [PS3,360] TEKKEN 6 (J,A) - 400K
09. [Wii] Taiko Drum Master 2 (J,A) - 380K
10. [PS2,Wii] SD Gundam G Generation Wars (J,A) - 370K

They might as well finish up purchasing D3....

 

[C.T.]

back from a den den town trip. FF XIII is already 3,980 Yen used everywhere, as well as ToG. (Vesperia PS3 goes for over 5.000 used) Funny note: they promote ToS 2 with "Lloyd is even joining you in battle"

Finally found 7 and Venus and Braves and tried the new chocolate soda. I like it.