Media Create Sales: Jan. 25 - 31, 2010

holy crap ducky, you really bombed on predictions this week.

donny didn't even bother to predict end of eternity and he's only one position below you in the rankings

hahaha
 
Chris1964 said:
blog.livedoor just updated and guess what the famitsu leak was fake. Second time this banned site gives a link with made up numbers.

43. Wii Monster Hunter 3 (Capcom)- 3,400 / 997,600 / 98%

Next week we have a new million seller for Wii.
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:O :D
 
Stumpokapow said:
holy crap ducky, you really bombed on predictions this week.

donny didn't even bother to predict end of eternity and he's only one position below you in the rankings

hahaha
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Yeah, I used predictions I made 2 months ago to see how accurate they would be. Clearly they are not. :P
 
i was way off for EOE (double for each) :(

But it's a "nice try" for a first timer i think. :lol
 
I'm going to blame gun control laws in Japan, pedophilia and general perversion for my total failure in this week's predictions. :(
 
Stumpokapow said:
Don't tease the Octopus, kids!
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ultros.jpg
 
Vinnk said:
I am so glad I am not in their PR department. It is going to be pretty hard to spin this so Wii is to blame.
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Their PR department is probably suiciding at the moment. Their expectations for the first shipment was 30k. It ended up shipping about 10k and selling 3k. :lol
 
duckroll said:
I'm going to blame gun control laws in Japan, pedophilia and general perversion for my total failure in this week's predictions. :(
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Well, neither the shipment numbers are close to 250+...Not sure what to make of it. I was hoping for more but a 80% and 84% sell through is very healthy for the game. Hmmm...
 
dolemite said:
The Last Rebellion is one of the worst cases of "being sent to die" I ever seen.
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Why the hell would they release the game alongside DQ (for godsakes!), EoE and Ar Tonelico 3? Release it 1 or 2 weeks earlier/later and it would probably have done a bit better.
 
Vinnk said:
I am so glad I am not in their PR department. It is going to be pretty hard to spin this so Wii is to blame.
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Lessee...

"The late release of Phantom Brave Wii and sales that fell short of expectations led to cuts in the marketing budget of The Last Rebellion.

NIS are examining their support of Nintendo's system and may make minor cuts to their extensive portfolio of Wii titles for FY2010."

? ;-)
 
Someone had to pay, considering neither Tonelico nor EoE did it was LR's turn. They totally were looking for ownage, nobody forced them to put the game against the competition.
 
I honestly don't really think any of the games suffered much from being released at the same time. If anything, EoE suffered the most imo, because it's the most appealing new title of the lot. If it didn't have to compete with AT3, I suspect it could have sold more. AT3 imo, came out as the clear winner because it sold far more than expected, even based on previous entries. EoE on the other hand definitely had the potential to do better. Last Rebellion never had any potential, period. It's a shit game from a shit developer and a niche publisher. For reference, the last DS game Hitmaker made and Nippon Ichi published, sold 4k in the first week and vanished off the charts forever. :P
 
onken said:
Also, glad to hear the leak was a fake, that PS3 hw number would be very concerning.

e~ missed the TvC numbers, that is seriously poor.
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Do you expect it to be much higher?


onken said:
e~ missed the TvC numbers, that is seriously poor.
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I don't get what people were expecting. The first game did like 20K or some horrible number and it was released during the holiday rush. Why would we expect this one to do anything?
 
So... the Wii didn't sell 46k this week?

Also, what do we think of NSMB Wii's legs? It seems to be slowing down quite considerably, so I wonder when and where it will start to settle.
 
04. / 00. [PS3] Ar tonelico III: Sekai Shuuen no Hikigane wa Shoujo no Uta ga Hajiku (Namco Bandai) - 82.000 / NEW
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:D
Me said:
35k first week for AT3 would be a disaster in my opinion. It may happen because of the crazy release schedule, but I really don't think so. Rorona sold 48k first week on PS3 half a year ago, and the Ar Tonelico series has been more popular than Atelier for a while now.
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As I wrote yesterday after the fake leak, I had hoped (secretly, I have to say, even expected, the preorder numbers and buzz seemed good) that it would be able to surpass part 2, and in MC it very clearly did. These sales should be good enough to reach a higher LTD, even accounting for the usual FW/LTD ratio increase in sequels. How many direct sequels have had a sales increase going from PS2 to PS3? I'm quite sure it's the only JRPG at least. I hope this broadens the perspective of people who believe that all smaller Japanese developers should have gone Wii or remained exclusively on handhelds.

Well deserved Gust, each game I have played in their series is a clear improvement in gameplay on its predecessors, something that's very rare with JRPGs these days.

ZoddGutts said:
Isn't Ar Tonelico III last game in the series? Wonder if Gust will change their mind after seeing those sales...
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I certainly hope so. It doesn't have to be the same series but more games in the universe (most importantly, featuring hymmnos!) are required.
 
schuelma said:
Do you expect it to be much higher?
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Yeah I was thinking about 35k this week.

I don't get what people were expecting. The first game did like 20K or some horrible number and it was released during the holiday rush. Why would we expect this one to do anything?
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Uh just because we expected it to be horrible, doesn't make it not horrible.
 
onken said:
Yeah I was thinking about 35k this week.

.
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Hmm..we'll find out today, but I am skeptical that 2 mid tier RPG's are going to both stop a decline and cause a 7-8k bump.
 
Road said:
So, the only winner from putting so many RPGs together is going to be AT3
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IIRC they also were the first choosing this date, so I can't really muster much sympathy for the other publishers.
 
gogogow said:
What is your prediction?
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I thought the fake leak was pretty reasonable- basically stay steady, give or take a thousand or so.
 
Wow, just noticed that Shiren 3 bombed. Better stick to DS.
 
duckroll said:
Yeah, I used predictions I made 2 months ago to see how accurate they would be. Clearly they are not. :P
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And I used your predictions as a basis for my predictions.

:lol :lol
 
I'm really excited for God Eater. I think its gonna be huuuuuuuuuge.
 
schuelma said:
I don't get what people were expecting. The first game did like 20K or some horrible number and it was released during the holiday rush. Why would we expect this one to do anything?
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The original game had been in the bomba bin for awhile. I doubt Capcom expected much out of its re-release, which was meant for the West anyway.
 
schuelma said:
Wow, just noticed that Shiren 3 bombed. Better stick to DS.
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Well the original on the Wii sold 58k in the first week, and that was published by Sega. I would say 14k for a PSP port 1.5 years later published by Spike with zero marketing, is in fact pretty damn good.
 
I'm probably being stupid here, but how I do I get garaph to give me weekly hardware numbers in table (not graph) form?
 
I didn't even know Shiren 3 PSP was out. If I did, I might have bought it. Maybe I can get it cheaper soon, though. :o
 
AT3 did really good so far.
EOE should have come out week last week or a week after SO4 , still it all depends on how good word of mouth is .

now to wait for HW numbers
 
duckroll said:
Well the original on the Wii sold 58k in the first week, and that was published by Sega. I would say 14k for a PSP port 1.5 years later published by Spike with zero marketing, is in fact pretty damn good.
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Well, this begs the question.

What Wii -> 360/PS3/PSP/PS2/DS port has actually done well? :lol

I guess something like 428 virtually doubling its sales through PS3/PSP ports counts, but has a Wii bomba actually been unbomba'd thanks to the help of another platform?

If someone says MH3, I will stop giving store impressions for a month, jerks. :P
 
cvxfreak said:
Well, this begs the question.

What Wii -> 360/PS3/PSP/PS2/DS port has actually done well? :lol

I guess something like 428 virtually doubling its sales through PS3/PSP ports counts, but has a Wii bomba actually been unbomba'd thanks to the help of another platform?

If someone says MH3, I will stop giving store impressions for a month, jerks. :P
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NMH will be an interesting case study. Beyond that maybe the eventual Sengoku Musou 3 ports. What I think will be the most interesting is Sengoku Basara 3. I think most people are expecting the PS3 sales to destroy the Wii ones. What would that mean, in your opinion?
 
RPGManiac said:
Holy crap at Dragon Quest, localize this soon Square-Enix
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Just gives more hype for DQX
for Wii plz
. All of the DQ remakes/ports are doing terrific :D

FF13 drop not that unexpected but how will it do in North America/Europe next month? Given the PS3's surge in sales, Im hoping it has legs. I assume the 360 version will do worse by default
 
duckroll said:
NMH will be an interesting case study. Beyond that maybe the eventual Sengoku Musou 3 ports. What I think will be the most interesting is Sengoku Basara 3. I think most people are expecting the PS3 sales to destroy the Wii ones. What would that mean, in your opinion?
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I don't see NMH doing well at all (is it still coming out this month?).

Basara will be interesting..I'm betting that Capcom will be marketing the PS3 version more heavily, and honestly I don't see one legitimate reason why a PS3/Wii owner would pick the Wii version, so I just can't see the Wii version doing very well.
 
duckroll said:
NMH will be an interesting case study. Beyond that maybe the eventual Sengoku Musou 3 ports. What I think will be the most interesting is Sengoku Basara 3. I think most people are expecting the PS3 sales to destroy the Wii ones. What would that mean, in your opinion?
Click to expand...

Good question. I'm no expert on Basara at all, but the last five ports Capcom delivered to the Wii actually did pretty well for what they were, and they weren't simultaneous releases, either. I don't think we can really use Basara 2 Heroes as a gauge for Basara 3's performance. Given the sizable Musou fanbases on both the PS3 and the Wii (thanks Koei!), I wouldn't assume that Basara PS3 would destroy Basara 3 Wii.

I could see a number of scenarios playing out. I can see one or the other being ahead by a relatively small margin of <25%. I can see them being dead even. And then I can see the Wii version repeating Basara 2 Heroes' bomba. It's really hard to say. But Basara really doesn't seem to garner high enough sales to really speak for the ability of one platform to perform above the other. It'll tell us about the Basara fanbase, but it won't tell us about the PS3 or Wii fanbase, both who have strong showings for Capcom titles.

Isn't the PS3 version the only one playable online? That is just bizarre considering MH3 hits 1 Million next week.
 
schuelma said:
I don't see NMH doing well at all (is it still coming out this month?).

Basara will be interesting..I'm betting that Capcom will be marketing the PS3 version more heavily, and honestly I don't see one legitimate reason why a PS3/Wii owner would pick the Wii version, so I just can't see the Wii version doing very well.
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NMH is coming out in April now. There's no fixed new date, but it was delayed. I don't think it'll do "well" at all, but I think it has a good chance to beat the Wii sales across both platforms at least. 20k isn't really that hard to top...
 
duckroll said:
NMH is coming out in April now. There's no fixed new date, but it was delayed. I don't think it'll do "well" at all, but I think it has a good chance to beat the Wii sales across both platforms at least. 20k isn't really that hard to top...
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I dunno, I feel that at the level we are talking about (10K-20K), its hard to make any real conclusions, unless the PS360 version really sells "well" and breaks like 50K or something. I mean, are we really going to be able to say something profound about the state of the console userbase if NMH HD sells 14K on PS3 and 7K on 360?
 
duckroll said:
NMH is coming out in April now. There's no fixed new date, but it was delayed. I don't think it'll do "well" at all, but I think it has a good chance to beat the Wii sales across both platforms at least. 20k isn't really that hard to top...
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It is if you're Suda 51.
 
NMH will do average at best, 80-90k lt if it's lucky.

I expect Basara 3 to do about 150k on PS3, 50k on Wii
 
cvxfreak said:
Good question. I'm no expert on Basara at all, but the last five ports Capcom delivered to the Wii actually did pretty well for what they were, and they weren't simultaneous releases, either. I don't think we can really use Basara 2 Heroes as a gauge for Basara 3's performance. Given the sizable Musou fanbases on both the PS3 and the Wii (thanks Koei!), I wouldn't assume that Basara PS3 would destroy Basara 3 Wii.

I could see a number of scenarios playing out. I can see one or the other being ahead by a relatively small margin of <25%. I can see them being dead even. And then I can see the Wii version repeating Basara 2 Heroes' bomba. It's really hard to say. But Basara really doesn't seem to garner high enough sales to really speak for the ability of one platform to perform above the other. It'll tell us about the Basara fanbase, but it won't tell us about the PS3 or Wii fanbase, both who have strong showings for Capcom titles.

Isn't the PS3 version the only one playable online? That is just bizarre considering MH3 hits 1 Million next week.
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I think the assumption that there is a sizable Musou fanbase on BOTH the PS3 and Wii is questionable. I'm sure Koei believes that they have "expanded" their audience demographic on the Wii, but we don't know if that is really true. We only know that it has sold about 250k on the Wii now, but how many of those are actually core Musou fans who also own a PS3 and own Shin Sangoku Musou 5 on the PS3? Since Sengoku Musou 3 is not available on any other platform now, we won't know for sure.

What is interesting about a simultaneous release on Wii and PS3, is that it will tell us for sure what platform the fans of such a genre generally favor. If a sizable demographic of Musou fans now own both a PS3 and a Wii because of SSM5 and SM3, and the fanbase of Basara is a sub-set of Musou fans, then the question is - given a choice between a PS3 and Wii release of the same game, if they have both systems which would they pick?

The wildcard is of course that somehow Sengoku Musou 3 has now built a brand new audience who did not buy SSM5, and only own a Wii. And these people could help boost the sales of SB3. I'm not entirely convinced this is anywhere close to being the case though.

schuelma said:
I dunno, I feel that at the level we are talking about (10K-20K), its hard to make any real conclusions, unless the PS360 version really sells "well" and breaks like 50K or something. I mean, are we really going to be able to say something profound about the state of the console userbase if NMH HD sells 14K on PS3 and 7K on 360?
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I didn't say it would draw any real conclusions, but cvxfreak asked about Wii to PS360 ports, and I think NMH is in the best position to be a case study for that because it is a Wii game which suffered REALLY terrible sales, and is also a game with a setting which would actually theoretically appeal more to the PS360 audience than the Wii audience. If it does substantially better than the Wii version, despite being a really old port coming out at the same time as the sequel on the Wii, then I think it will have serious effects on how MMV views their future productions, even if it affects nothing else.
 
onken said:
NMH will do average at best, 80-90k lt if it's lucky.
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There is no way NMH does that well in Japan. None.


onken said:
I expect Basara 3 to do about 150k on PS3, 50k on Wii
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That seems low
 
If NMH does 80-90k on the PS360 in Japan, the skies will open up, the choirs of angels will sing, and the Lord our God will descent upon us and forgive all our sins and raise all the dead up into everlasting glory.

:P
 
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