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[doicare]

The original Kingdom Hearts is around one million units above any PS2 FF title in the US; KH2 (a 2006 release) has an almost equal LTD to FFX (a 2001 release) and is well ahead of FFXII. It really is significantly more popular.

I mean, this whole argument is stupid to be having in the first place (especially since, as Kikujiro pointed out, both Wii and PS360 will almost certainly get some Kingdom Hearts game) but I do think it's important to clarify this part.

Yep i know what the original kingdom hearts sold in america compared to final fantasy x and despite outselling it by over a million units in america, overall worldwide final fantasy x outsold kingdom hearts 1 by over 2 million units making that small american victory meaningless.

Also Final fantasy x in america outsold kingdom hearts 2 by over half a million, it wasn't close.

To sum it all up, kingdom hearts 1 in america was significantly more popular than FFX or FFII but worldwide both FFX and FFXII outsold kingdom hearts 1.

Kingdom hearts 2 sold over half a million less than FFX and slighty more than FFXII in america but worldwide it sold significantly less than either FFX (4 million less) or FFXII (2 million less).

 

[Liabe Brave]

My personal prediction: Versus XIII will push off a Nomura-lead KH for years, so to maintain the brand S-E will need another one sooner. One of the non-Nomura teams will either do a full-strength portable title, or (my guess) spread the love onto the Wii. Depending on the success of that version, and the disposition of hardware in 2011, S-E would decide where the Nomura version will go (or if it will never materialize).

The point is that PS3 software support isn't particularly bad compared to the Wii. Other than a few (obvious) games here and there, there's no company actively supporting the Wii over the PS3. Therefore, there's very little to changes in regards to support. I think it is the case that it can't get much worse for the Wii.

I think it very much can. Wii has received bad third-party support so far, no question. But that's been a risky or even unintelligible choice for a large proportion of the studios that made it. I'm convinced that stronger outreach by Nintendo could ameliorate the problem. But if PS3 continues to improve as an ecosystem, Nintendo's task will convert from trying to talk folks out of a dumb decision into trying to alter their good decision. That's a much harder prospect.

It's not a fait accompli; a couple months of success post-pricecut hasn't made PS3 a thriving platform yet. I just think that Nintendo need to build bridges to third parties as quickly as possible, in case this trend continues.

 

[Moor-Angol]

in sight, god knows how long FF13 Versus could take, no more announced DQ remakes...


http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=17654675&postcount=493

They are creepily spot-on on FF Gaiden and SMT:SJ front-loaded shipments...

Thanks pal, seems like they made other estimates (and FF13 is growing up)

(Wii) New Super Mario Bros. : 1,03-1,29M / 2,50M or more
(PS3) Final Fantasy XIII : 1,01-1,36M / 1,00-1,50M
(DS) Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks : 320-430k / 720-880k
(DS) Layton 4 : 300-400k / 540-690k
(PSP) Kingdom Hearts : 240-330k / 450-580k
(PSP) MS Gundam vs. Gundam Next Plus : 230-320k / 320-400k
(PSP) Phantasy Star Portable 2 : 200-260k / 270-350k
(Wii) Tales of Graces : 200-260k / 230-290k
(DS) Power Pro Pocket 12 : 130-180k / 230-290k
(PSP) Winning Eleven 2010 : 110-160k / 180-230k
(DS) Fushigi no Dungeon 4 : 100-140k / 100-130k
(PSP) Valkyria Chronicles 2 : 100-130k / 160-200k
(???) End of Eternity : 100-140k / 110-140k
(Wii) RE Darkside Chronicles : 100-130k / 180-230k
(PS3) Call of Duty MW2 : 90-130k / 140-170k

Source : http://hokanko3.blog13.fc2.com/

 

[Paracelsus]

Oh Lord, they are judging EoE as a IU-level of tri-Ace developed game. I hope that's not the case, sales-wise ._.

 

[Road]

Thanks pal, seems like they made other estimates (and FF13 is growing up)

(Wii) New Super Mario Bros. : 1,03-1,29M / 2,50M or more
(PS3) Final Fantasy XIII : 1,01-1,36M / 1,00-1,50M
(DS) Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks : 320-430k / 720-880k
(DS) Layton 4 : 300-400k / 540-690k
(PSP) Kingdom Hearts : 240-330k / 450-580k
(PSP) MS Gundam vs. Gundam Next Plus : 230-320k / 320-400k
(PSP) Phantasy Star Portable 2 : 200-260k / 270-350k
(Wii) Tales of Graces : 200-260k / 230-290k
(DS) Power Pro Pocket 12 : 130-180k / 230-290k
(PSP) Winning Eleven 2010 : 110-160k / 180-230k
(DS) Fushigi no Dungeon 4 : 100-140k / 100-130k
(PSP) Valkyria Chronicles 2 : 100-130k / 160-200k
(???) End of Eternity : 100-140k / 110-140k
(Wii) RE Darkside Chronicles : 100-130k / 180-230k
(PS3) Call of Duty MW2 : 90-130k / 140-170k

FFXIII is still very low. Good luck to S-E if that's the reality. On the other hand, NSMBWii is very high. It could indicate Nintendo definitely doesn't want a sell-out of this game (Famitsu has shown to be more accurate with the first shipments forecasts when the launch is relatively close).

To give some perspective, here are the pre-order numbers from COMGNET for both games and for NSMB and FFXII:

29 days to release:
Final Fantasy XII - 1865pt
Final Fantasy XIII - 1223pt

Release date:
Final Fantasy XII - 3510pt
Final Fantasy XIII - ?

15 days to release:
New Super Mario Bros. - 160pt
New Super Mario Bros. Wii - 120pt

Release date:
New Super Mario Bros. - 688pt
New Super Mario Bros. Wii - ?

 

[Elios83]

Gamefront.de is reporting that at top japanese retailers FFXIII pre-orders have already topped FFXII pre-orders and right now it's the most pre-ordered title in Japan. NSMB is in second place, the new Zelda DS in third.

 

[Chris1964]

Gamefront.de is reporting that at top japanese retailers FFXIII pre-orders have already topped FFXII pre-orders and right now it's the most pre-ordered title in Japan. NSMB is in second place, the new Zelda DS in third.

I hope Gamefront doesn't mean online retailer preorders. Does it give a source?

 

[Spiegel]

Do you have preorder numbers for FFX, Road?

Those would be more useful.

 

[Elios83]

I hope Gamefront doesn't mean online retailer preorders. Does it give a source?

Tsutaya is explicitly mentioned in the news.

 

[vicissitudes]

Really, if FFXIII does anything under 1.3m first week it's a bomb. It should get at least 1.4m first week to be acceptable for a mainline FF entry. Those estimates still look a little off. If NSMBWii does more than FFXIII first week I will just laugh.

 

[Chris1964]

Gamefront must have taken the report from andiasang. It has some interesting predictions.

http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2009/11/17/tsutaya_december_sales_column/

 

[pseudocaesar]

Thanks pal, seems like they made other estimates (and FF13 is growing up)

(Wii) New Super Mario Bros. : 1,03-1,29M / 2,50M or more
(PS3) Final Fantasy XIII : 1,01-1,36M / 1,00-1,50M
(DS) Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks : 320-430k / 720-880k
(DS) Layton 4 : 300-400k / 540-690k
(PSP) Kingdom Hearts : 240-330k / 450-580k
(PSP) MS Gundam vs. Gundam Next Plus : 230-320k / 320-400k
(PSP) Phantasy Star Portable 2 : 200-260k / 270-350k
(Wii) Tales of Graces : 200-260k / 230-290k
(DS) Power Pro Pocket 12 : 130-180k / 230-290k
(PSP) Winning Eleven 2010 : 110-160k / 180-230k
(DS) Fushigi no Dungeon 4 : 100-140k / 100-130k
(PSP) Valkyria Chronicles 2 : 100-130k / 160-200k
(???) End of Eternity : 100-140k / 110-140k
(Wii) RE Darkside Chronicles : 100-130k / 180-230k
(PS3) Call of Duty MW2 : 90-130k / 140-170k

Source : http://hokanko3.blog13.fc2.com/

Thats a big underestimation for End of Eternity. I would expect 2-300k myself.

 

[onken]

Those FF13 pre-order numbers are interesting, I wonder why people are more inclined to pre-order this time.

Thats a big underestimation for End of Eternity. I would expect 2-300k myself.

Yeah I agree.

 

[schuelma]

Gamefront must have taken the report from andiasang. It has some interesting predictions.

http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2009/11/17/tsutaya_december_sales_column/

Interesting. Right now I'm thinking first week 1.2m/1.5 LTD or so.

 

[Brofist]

Those FF13 pre-order numbers are interesting, I wonder why people are more inclined to pre-order this time.



Yeah I agree.

Could be any of many reasons. The first FF game in a hardware cycle usually does very well. Plus it looks like it's closer to the usual FF formula than XII.

 

[schuelma]

To give some perspective, here are the pre-order numbers from COMGNET for both games and for NSMB and FFXII:

29 days to release:
Final Fantasy XII - 1865pt
Final Fantasy XIII - 1223pt

Release date:
Final Fantasy XII - 3510pt
Final Fantasy XIII - ?

15 days to release:
New Super Mario Bros. - 160pt
New Super Mario Bros. Wii - 120pt

Release date:
New Super Mario Bros. - 688pt
New Super Mario Bros. Wii - ?

Wow, you have Comgnet numbers going that way back? Nice.

 

[the thoroughbred]

The thing about NSMBWii is it will continue selling relatively well for a few years. So whatever outrageous number they ship now, it will eventually sell out, even if only 20% sell through in the first month. The problem with over shipping initially even for games of NSMB's calibre is that retailers lack foresight and will probably price cut it.

 

[schuelma]

(Wii) New Super Mario Bros. : 1,03-1,29M / 2,50M or more



-That would be a pretty big first shipment. I think they'd sell through it pretty quickly though.

(PS3) Final Fantasy XIII : 1,01-1,36M / 1,00-1,50M

- I'd expect the first shipment to be a tad higher, but this looks about right to me.



(PSP) Kingdom Hearts : 240-330k / 450-580k

-That seems incredibly low to me. This seems like a total that could hit a million.



(Wii) Tales of Graces : 200-260k / 230-290k

Now this estimate is a bit more realistic than the last one. Think it could do better than that, but the first shipment number seems right.

(???) End of Eternity : 100-140k / 110-140k

- Agree with others that this seems low.

(Wii) RE Darkside Chronicles : 100-130k / 180-230k

-With the increased resources put into this, that number would be a minor disappointment IMO.


(PS3) Call of Duty MW2 : 90-130k / 140-170k

Wow

 

[schuelma]

The thing about NSMBWii is it will continue selling relatively well for a few years. So whatever outrageous number they ship now, it will eventually sell out, even if only 20% sell through in the first month. The problem with over shipping initially even for games of NSMB's calibre is that retailers lack foresight and will probably price cut it.

Honestly for this game I think a shipment of over a million will still sell out by the end of the month.

 

[Spiegel]

Interesting. Right now I'm thinking first week 1.2m/1.5 LTD or so.

That would be a disaster.

Imo, the first week will be close to FFX/XII but the game will have shorter legs. See Yakuza 3 and MGS4.

I'm thinking 1.63m/2m LTD

 

[onken]

Could be any of many reasons. The first FF game in a hardware cycle usually does very well. Plus it looks like it's closer to the usual FF formula than XII.

What usual formula? Weren't fw/lt sales of X and XII basically identical?

 

[Moor-Angol]

FF13 is released on week 51.

Week 52 and 1 are the biggest weeks for sales, so FF13 has 3 consecutive weeks for good sales, usually FF sales drop after the first week, but i don't think it will happen for FF13.
Maybe it will fall behind new Mario Wii, but good legs until the end of January (i'm talking about just 6 weeks..)
RGG3 and MGS4 examples are correct, but the different time of release will have, in comparison, a different impact on the first 3-4 weeks.

 

[Brofist]

What usual formula? Weren't fw/lt sales of X and XII basically identical?

LT probably but weren't FFX sales more front loaded? I'm sure someone has numbers. It seems as though it was though due to excitement over a new FF on a new platform.

And by formula I meant gameplay formula. I think some appreciate the return in style to the more pre FFXI/FFXII feel, again possibly having an effect on pre-orders.

 

[Road]

Wow, you have Comgnet numbers going that way back? Nice.

I don't. They're from this page: http://homepage3.nifty.com/TAKU64/cong/ I don't actually know who keeps them.

Do you have preorder numbers for FFX, Road?

Those would be more useful.

And, unfortunately, he doesn't have numbers for FFX.

But we know can't really conclude anything with COMGNET numbers. It's more for the curiosity about how both titles are lagging behind their predecessors in that particular case.

Nevertheless, Tsutaya is saying FFXIII is out-pacing FFXII, so who knows? The reason I find Famitsu's forecast for it low it's because they're first shipment predictions. I'd expect S-E would try and stuff as much of the game as they could, much like Capcom did with MH3.

Also, I'm a FF fan so I want it to do well. =P

 

[schuelma]

I don't. They're from this page: http://homepage3.nifty.com/TAKU64/cong/ I don't actually know who keeps them.

Yeah, that makes more sense than you having an exhaustive database from one online Japanese retailer. :lol

 

[gogogow]

That would be a disaster.

Imo, the first week will be close to FFX/XII but the game will have shorter legs. See Yakuza 3 and MGS4.

I'm thinking 1.63m/2m LTD

Yeah, 1,5m LTD is way too low. That would be 800k less copies sold than FFX & XII. As one of the most anticipated games, I don't see that happening. I can see a drop of 15-20% in sales. Similar to RGG3 and MGS4, which actually had a harder time to sell with a 39,900 yen PS3 and smaller install base. I know, different games, different people who enjoy these games, but I think these franchises have very loyal fans like the FF main series. With great marketing/advertising, a lightning bundle, a 29,900 yen PS3 slim it should sell much better than 1,5m.
So I think 1,30-1,50m FW/1,80-1,95m LTD

But it really depends on how much SE ships first week. I hope they make the right decision this time.

LT probably but weren't FFX sales more front loaded? I'm sure someone has numbers. It seems as though it was though due to excitement over a new FF on a new platform.

Nope, FFXII was more frontloaded (sold more FW), by almost 100k copies. 1,749m vs 1,840 FW.

 

[Chris1964]

I was looking at previous Final Fantasy main titles (not with budget re-releases) and it seems that Final Fantasy becomes more and more frontloaded with every release.

31/01/97 [PS1] Final Fantasy VII (Square) - 2.034.879 / 3.277.291 - 62,09%
11/02/99 [PS1] Final Fantasy VIII (Square) - 2.504.044 / 3.501.588 - 71,51%
07/07/00 [PS1] Final Fantasy IX (Square) - 1.954.421 / 2.707.301 - 72,19%
19/07/01 [PS2] Final Fantasy X (Square) - 1.749.737 / 2.325.215 - 75,25%
13/03/03 [PS2] Final Fantasy X-2 (Square Enix) - 1.472.914 / 1.472.914 - 1.960.937 - 75,11%
16/03/06 [PS2] Final Fantasy XII (Square Enix) - 1.840.397 / 2.322.329 - 79,25%

With a December release it's very possible that FFXIII will have an 70-80% first week to LTD ratio. First week sales will give a very good estimate of the LTD.

Previous main Mario platform titles (with famitsu numbers) don't give a very clear picture. There are 3d releases for home consoles and 2d releases for handhelds.

23/06/96 [N64] Super Mario 64 (Nintendo) - 162.111 / 1.639.921 - 9,89%
19/07/02 [GCN] Super Mario Sunshine (Nintendo) - 280.610 / 789.989 - 35,52%
25/05/06 [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) - 865.024 / 5.535.730 - 15,63%
01/11/07 [WII] Super Mario Galaxy (Nintendo) - 256.341 / 964.414 - 26,60%

 

[schuelma]

Yeah, 1,5m LTD is way too low. That would be 800k less copies sold than FFX & XII. .

I could certainly be way off, and that's just what I'm guessing right now, mostly going off Famitsu guesses and how its tracking on comgnet.

 

[Grampasso]

FFXIII is still very low. Good luck to S-E if that's the reality. On the other hand, NSMBWii is very high. It could indicate Nintendo definitely doesn't want a sell-out of this game (Famitsu has shown to be more accurate with the first shipments forecasts when the launch is relatively close).

To give some perspective, here are the pre-order numbers from COMGNET for both games and for NSMB and FFXII:

29 days to release:
Final Fantasy XII - 1865pt
Final Fantasy XIII - 1223pt

Release date:
Final Fantasy XII - 3510pt
Final Fantasy XIII - ?

15 days to release:
New Super Mario Bros. - 160pt
New Super Mario Bros. Wii - 120pt

Release date:
New Super Mario Bros. - 688pt
New Super Mario Bros. Wii - ?

Uhm, if the ratios stay like that we could say our predictions for FFXIII sales are not so off, it should reach 1.6/1.7 mil lifetime sales... well it's a bit low tbh, but it seems like it's increasing right?
On the other hand, NSMBWii seems to be huge with that 75% preorder rate compared to NSMB for DS (am I reading the data in the right way?). That would mean 675k on launch week if things stay like this, but given the time of the year I think that % will be higher at the relase date, not to mention the holiday bump... that's freaking crazy

 

[schuelma]

Uhm, if the ratios stay like that we could say our predictions for FFXIII sales are not so off, it should reach 1.6/1.7 mil lifetime sales... well it's a bit low tbh, but it seems like it's increasing right?
On the other hand, NSMBWii seems to be huge with that 75% preorder rate compared to NSMB for DS (am I reading the data in the right way?). That would mean 675k on launch week if things stay like this, but given the time of the year I think that % will be higher at the relase date, not to mention the holiday bump... that's freaking crazy

1.6/1.7 would be a pretty big downturn for the series.

And yeah..NSMB Wii is going to be really big I think.

 

[V_Arnold]

I cant wait to see End of Eternity's first week, it will be the first JRPG ever released at the same time for both platforms, meaning those who own both 360 and PS3 will prefer whicever console they prefer in these situations.

I predict it wont be anything like 75-25 or 66-33 in favor of PlayStation 3, but more like the Bayonetta (altough we still do not know if there will be any differences poing/hype/graphics/content-wise between the two versions)-case. So anything above 100k for 360 as first week and 160-200k for PS3?

But now I have to realize that I cant even make any predictions considering that we do not know how big of a bump PS3 will get with FFXIII's launch and this holiday.

 

[Road]

Yeah, that makes more sense than you having an exhaustive database from one online Japanese retailer. :lol

lol Certainly. I can't even bother myself to keep hardware figures, much less such specific daily numbers. Gotta be thankful for those people keeping those stats. =)

On another matter, I think it's maybe soon to have any idea of how EOE will perform. But Sega managed to completely outdo Famitsu's expectations for Bayonetta, so who knows what can happen if they invest on EOE's marketing heavily too.

 

[7Th]

I cant wait to see End of Eternity's first week, it will be the first JRPG ever released at the same time for both platforms, meaning those who own both 360 and PS3 will prefer whicever console they prefer in these situations.

I predict it wont be anything like 75-25 or 66-33 in favor of PlayStation 3, but more like the Bayonetta (altough we still do not know if there will be any differences poing/hype/graphics/content-wise between the two versions)-case. So anything above 100k for 360 as first week and 160-200k for PS3?

But now I have to realize that I cant even make any predictions considering that we do not know how big of a bump PS3 will get with FFXIII's launch and this holiday.

I doubt the PS3 version won't destroy the 360 version in terms of sales. So far, it looks like both releases are pretty much the same and even with something like Bayonetta the result was 67-33 in clear favor of PS3...

 

[Road]

Sinobi posted some comparisons at the time of the Bayonetta release:

2008-01: [360] DMC4 - 40,000 (16%)
2008-01: [360] DMC4 - 212,000 (84%)

2008-07: [360] SC4 - 35,000 (32%)
2008-07: [360] SC4 - 74,000 (68%)

2009-02: [360] SF4 - 36,000 (30%)
2009-02: [360] SF4 - 85,000 (70%)

2009-10: [360] Bayonetta - 66,000 (32%)
2009-10: [360] Bayonetta - 138,000 (68%)



I just noticed we can get some updated LTD from the forecast (last known number):

[NDS] New Super Mario Bros. - 5,554,000 (5,536,000)
[NDS] Kingdom Hearts 358/2 Days - 519,000 (500,000)
[NDS] Power Pro Kun Pocket 11 - 283,000 (255,000)
[NDS] Tales of Hearts - 262,000 (259,000)
[PSP] Winning Eleven 2009 - 250,000 (234,000)

We'll probably get them on the 2009 top 500, apart from possibly ToH.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

We'll probably get them on the 2009 top 500, apart from possibly ToH.

The second half of the year is apparently much slower than the first, but it's definitely making the 2009 list; I think the 2008 numbers went through only its second week's 177K total.

 

[duckroll]

ToH would have to be at least 86k for 2009, it's definitely making the Top500.

 

[Moor-Angol]

Final Fantasy X and XII first weeks (courtesy from garaph)

Final Fantasy X (19/07/2001) :
week 1- 1.749.737
week 2 - 233.429
week 3 - 85.703
week 4 - 47.152
LTD - 2.323.463

Final Fantasy XII (13/03/2006) :
week 1- 1.840.397
week 2- 217.438
week 3- 91.078
week 4 - 45.945
LTD - 2.322.329

As we can see, sales have a big drop from week 2 to week 3, but considering FF13 week 3 is the one across December and January, i really doubt it can fall below 100k.
Week 4 could still have some good sales, but definitely below 100k.

I hope we can see a comparison graph as we had for Dragon Quest 9 and Pokemon

 

[jesusraz]

I just noticed we can get some updated LTD from the forecast (last known number):

[NDS] New Super Mario Bros. - 5,554,000 (5,536,000)
[NDS] Kingdom Hearts 358/2 Days - 519,000 (500,000)
[NDS] Power Pro Kun Pocket 11 - 283,000 (255,000)
[NDS] Tales of Hearts - 262,000 (259,000)
[PSP] Winning Eleven 2009 - 250,000 (234,000)

We'll probably get them on the 2009 top 500, apart from possibly ToH.

Not bad for KH DS. I was kind of thinking it would make it to the 750,000 mark, but maybe it'll eventually get there once a budget re-release lands.

Power Pro shows some very impressive legs. Didn't 11 start much slower than 10, but then magically appear back in the charts again for a while? Clearly it's been bubbling along nicely!

Poor Tales of Hearts. It's only managed to sell around as much as Tales of Innocence eventually managed to sell. Considering BanNam projected sales of 400,000 for ToH, no wonder there hasn't been a new Tales DS game churned out for this year. It'll be interesting to see how well the Tales of Keroro RPG will do...

 

[Road]

The second half of the year is apparently much slower than the first, but it's definitely making the 2009 list; I think the 2008 numbers went through only its second week's 177K total.

ToH would have to be at least 86k for 2009, it's definitely making the Top500.

Oh, yeah. I failed to realize it was released so close to the end of the 2008 Famitsu year. I only had "2008" in my head.

Thanks.

 

[Chris1964]

I hope we can see a comparison graph as we had for Dragon Quest 9 and Pokemon

I have thought of that but what's the point if LTD it won't reach previous Final Fantasy's first weeks? But if it beats my estimations by much from what I believe it will sell and has a very good first week it's a deal that I will do it.
I will definitely do a Mario chart though. One old game will be NSMB DS and I'm still thinking what the other game will be. If anyone has any likes from the other 3, please say what you want it to be. These are all the Mario we have numbers.

23/06/96 [N64] Super Mario 64 (Nintendo) - 162.111 / 1.639.921 - 9,89%
19/07/02 [GCN] Super Mario Sunshine (Nintendo) - 280.610 / 789.989 - 35,52%
25/05/06 [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) - 865.024 / 5.535.730 - 15,63%
01/11/07 [WII] Super Mario Galaxy (Nintendo) - 256.341 / 964.414 - 26,60%

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Of those, Chris, I think SMG would be the most interesting, since this is the first time there's a new 3D and 2D Mario on the same system.

 

[schuelma]

Of those, Chris, I think SMG would be the most interesting, since this is the first time there's a new 3D and 2D Mario on the same system.

I really don't think its going to be much of a comparison..I wouldn't be shocked if it outsells Galaxy after its 2nd week.

 

[charlequin]

LT probably but weren't FFX sales more front loaded?

Here's a big version of the chart.

FF games sell their LTD in three weeks, with far and away the vast majority of it selling week one. I honestly can't think of anything else that has as little legs. So we'll pretty much know that first week how well FFXIII has done.

I think these franchises have very loyal fans like the FF main series. With great marketing/advertising, a lightning bundle, a 29,900 yen PS3 slim it should sell much better than 1,5m.
So I think 1,30-1,50m FW/1,80-1,95m LTD

Well, I think it's important to note that FF has been a series in steady decline -- its main franchise entries have been trending downwards and its spinoffs have basically burned off 100% of their name capital.

That said, I think your estimate is closer to what we'll actually see: a 1.3-1.5m first week, with somewhere between 250k and 500k sold in total after that. (I think your LTD range is too narrow -- if we see a 1.3m first week I think we're looking at a 1.7m LTD at most.)

And yeah..NSMB Wii is going to be really big I think.

That's what I've been sayin'!

 

[schuelma]

That's what I've been sayin'!

Of course it would be bigger if it was more epic.

 

[Grampasso]

It would be more epic if it was SMG2, but then it would be smaller... does this even make sense? :'(

 

[charlequin]

Of course it would be bigger if it was more epic.

 

[donny2112]

It would be more epic if it was SMG2,

SMG2 will have much less story than SMG. Therefore, however "epic" SMG was, SMG2 will be less so.

 

[Aru]

Don't know if it has been posted yet, but I read here that Wada thinks FFXIII can outsell FFVII.

Well, good luck with that S-E :lol

I mean the game will sell a lot, but not FFVII level IMO.

 

[vicissitudes]

Don't know if it has been posted yet, but I read here that Wada thinks FFXIII can outsell FFVII.

Well, good luck with that S-E :lol

I mean the game will sell a lot, but not FFVII level IMO.

I dunno, he says "we would like to hope so."

The day FFXIII outsells FFVII is the day DQIX reaches 5 million sold in japan.

 

[Aru]

I dunno, he says "we would like to hope so."

The day FFXIII outsells FFVII is the day DQIX reaches 5 million sold in japan.

Well, I said "can outsell" not "will outsell".