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[Dragona Akehi]

NSMBW's smiley with glasses sure has a long nose.

It sure does.

 

[Michan]

It sure does.

Suuuure does.

 

[shintoki]

Well, Bigger always does make for a bigger smile.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Well, Bigger always does make for a bigger smile.

That's not what my girlfriend told me.

 

[Man God]

What does the Japanese landscape look like after FF XIII comes out? I mean, I can't think of anything really interesting on the horizon after that. A few middle of the road hits, sure, but nothing monumental.

 

[jeremy1456]

What does the Japanese landscape look like after FF XIII comes out? I mean, I can't think of anything really interesting on the horizon after that. A few middle of the road hits, sure, but nothing monumental.

It's probably going to be a world of Monster Hunter 3G and Dragon Quest X.

Don't be afraid of it. Embrace it.

 

[Man God]

Only one of those has been announced. :lol

 

[linsivvi]

What does the Japanese landscape look like after FF XIII comes out? I mean, I can't think of anything really interesting on the horizon after that. A few middle of the road hits, sure, but nothing monumental.

Depends on what you consider middle of the road I guess. GT5? Kingdom Hearts BBS ? Yakuza 4?

 

[duckroll]

What does the Japanese landscape look like after FF XIII comes out? I mean, I can't think of anything really interesting on the horizon after that. A few middle of the road hits, sure, but nothing monumental.

Tons of titles. In January alone we have Kingdom Hearts Birth by Sleep, Dragon Quest VI, Valkyria Chronicles 2 and End of Eternity. There's stuff in Feb and March too, like REGINLEIV, Metal Gear Solid Peace Walker, Zettai Hero, Hokuto no Ken Musou, Gran Turismo 5, Ryu ga Gotoku 4, Etrian Odyssey 3, and a gazillion other titles I can't think of at the moment.

 

[velvet_nitemare]

What does the Japanese landscape look like after FF XIII comes out? I mean, I can't think of anything really interesting on the horizon after that. A few middle of the road hits, sure, but nothing monumental.

Interesting sales wise or overall? Won't sell that well, but i expect last guardian to be excellent.

 

[duckroll]

Interesting sales wise or overall? Won't sell that well, but i expect last guardian to be excellent.

Did you really have to go out of your way to mention something which doesn't even have a release date? :lol

 

[smoothie_splash]

Did you really have to go out of your way to mention something which doesn't even have a release date? :lol

Do you really have to be so critical of anything anyone says??

 

[duckroll]

Do you really have to be so critical of anything anyone says??

Who's he, your little brother? :lol

Spoiler

Oh look I did it again! Boo hoo hoo!

 

[test_account]

Yeah I meant YTD.

Ok

I think the key here is that Wii sales should only go up from here as the holiday's pick up.

Ye, after this week the Wii has a lead of about 70k-100k on the PS3 i think? I think that the Wii will probably sell more than the PS3 the next week as well and the sales will pick up as you say, so then the Wii will have a bigger lead over the PS3. I dont think that Final Fantasy XIII will manage to push the PS3 hardware sales so that the PS3 will outsell the Wii with over 100k in the week when FFXIII is being released. That would be an amazing sales performace at least So i would guess that the Wii will most likely have a bigger YTD than the PS3 in 2009 indeed.

I think December might look more like 2007 for the Wii than 2008.

Yep, the Wii will probably have a great December indeed, which is more like how the Wii sold in December 2007 instead of how the Wii sold in December 2008 as you say, i agree

 

[Man God]

Tons of titles. In January alone we have Kingdom Hearts Birth by Sleep, Dragon Quest VI, Valkyria Chronicles 2 and End of Eternity. There's stuff in Feb and March too, like REGINLEIV, Metal Gear Solid Peace Walker, Zettai Hero, Hokuto no Ken Musou, Gran Turismo 5, Ryu ga Gotoku 4, Etrian Odyssey 3, and a gazillion other titles I can't think of at the moment.

This is what I was looking for, thanks Ducky.

DQ VI will actually be interesting. Franchise fatigue vs. excitement from DQ IX and being the first remake of VI. Which tendency will reign supreme? Probably the most interesting game up there sales wise

Sales wise I think GT5, KH PSP, and Metal Gear will be interesting. GT5 will disappoint some and excite others, KH will do well as usual, and Metal Gear...well, who knows. I think their might be some bad blood left over by those disappointed by MGS4, but I think the backlash overall was less in Japan than it was over in the states. It will do well.

I'm definitely excited about Fist of the North Star and EO 3, even though I'll probably only play one of those and I doubt either will chew up the charts. Fist of the North Star might do something shocking because it did have an absolutely huge fan base back in the day, but it's time as a video game seller is probably long gone. But who knows?

EO III will be another solid Atlus release. People will cry over what a shame it is by not selling through the roof but Atlus won't care, having made their money as usual.

 

[schuelma]

Assuming MC has the same 50k difference as Famitsu, that's a 74k deficit PS3 has, as of Dec 6. Are you a bad enough dude to say there's no way PS3 will make up that deficit over the next four weeks?

I really don't think it will happen. 2007/2008 tells me sales are going to keep increasing for the Wii and I don't see the PS3 selling 200K+ post FF13.

 

[Nirolak]

I wonder if the co-op will help extend the legs of Kingdom Hearts, Peace Walker and EO3 actually. I think that's the first time co-op has shown up in any of the series.

 

[duckroll]

I wonder if the co-op will help extend the legs of Kingdom Hearts, Peace Walker and EO3 actually. I think that's the first time co-op has shown up in any of the series.

I would say for Peace Walker yes, for KH and EO3 no. There's co-op on KH DS too btw.

 

[Nirolak]

I would say for Peace Walker yes, for KH and EO3 no. There's co-op on KH DS too btw.

I feel silly for forgetting that considering I've actually played the co-op on KH DS. :lol

 

[mutsu]

Fist of the North Star might do something shocking because it did have an absolutely huge fan base back in the day, but it's time as a video game seller is probably long gone. But who knows?

For your information, those Fist of the North Star Pachinko games sure moved tons of copies.

 

[Man God]

I would say for Peace Walker yes, for KH and EO3 no. There's co-op on KH DS too btw.

This right here. I don't think it would be a huge boost, but who knows? The Japanese tend to love well done portable co-op!

 

[Road]

Tons of titles. In January alone we have Kingdom Hearts Birth by Sleep, Dragon Quest VI, Valkyria Chronicles 2 and End of Eternity. There's stuff in Feb and March too, like REGINLEIV, Metal Gear Solid Peace Walker, Zettai Hero, Hokuto no Ken Musou, Gran Turismo 5, Ryu ga Gotoku 4, Etrian Odyssey 3, and a gazillion other titles I can't think of at the moment.

When you put it like this you make me realize how a mere remake will outsell each and every other title on that list.

It will probably outsell FFXIII too.

 

[jesusraz]

Tons of titles.

I'm quite interested to see how well Last Window does.

 

[cvxfreak]

Terrible.

There's a stack of them (perhaps two-dozen or so) at the game shop. Uh-oh.

 

[schuelma]

There's a stack of them (perhaps two-dozen or so) at the game shop. Uh-oh.

If ToG doesn't do well I don't think there is one valid excuse to use for that one.

 

[duckroll]

When you put it like this you make me realize how a mere remake will outsell each and every other title on that list.

It will probably outsell FFXIII too.

LTD? It probably won't outsell FFXIII.

 

[vicissitudes]

When you put it like this you make me realize how a mere remake will outsell each and every other title on that list.

It will probably outsell FFXIII too.

I was going to point out GT5, but really it's not even guaranteed a million in Japan.

 

[duckroll]

I was going to point out GT5, but really it's not even guaranteed a million in Japan.

GT4 barely just sold a million in Japan, I have a feeling GT5 will end up with 500-600k LTD.

 

[vicissitudes]

GT4 barely just sold a million in Japan, I have a feeling GT5 will end up with 500-600k LTD.

I don't think it will do that badly, GT5P did 710k in Japan.

 

[duckroll]

I don't think it will do that badly, GT5P did 710k in Japan.

Only according to Polyphony's shipment numbers. Actual tracked sales from Enterbrain puts GT5P at 238k and GT5P Spec-III at 295k.

 

[Road]

LTD? It probably won't outsell FFXIII.

I'm in a doom and gloom mood for FFXIII now. Ignore me. haha I think it won't even reach 1.5 million, while DQVI has chances of going over that for reasons already listed.

Hope I'm wrong regarding FFXIII, though.

 

[Paracelsus]

I'm in a doom and gloom mood for FFXIII now. Ignore me. haha I think it won't even reach 1.5 million, while DQVI has chances of going over that for reasons already listed.

Hope I'm wrong regarding FFXIII, though.

SalesGaf seems pretty gloomy about both FFXIII and PS3 December LTD anyway. I wonder why the huge overestimating from Enterbrain though. Since they put FFXIII LTD at 1.5mln, why putting PS3 hardware at 500k units.

 

[mclem]

:lol yeah, it's a market experiment for their new paradigm: the inside of your body.

Its reception will define what their next console is about, and a whole bunch of other things.

I fear the next gen's introduction of an endoscope controller.

 

[duckroll]

SalesGaf seems pretty gloomy about both FFXIII and PS3 December LTD anyway. I wonder why the huge overestimating from Enterbrain though. Since they put FFXIII LTD at 1.5mln, why putting PS3 hardware at 500k units.

The PS3 does not have to do more than 500k in December for FFXIII to sell 1.5 million (or more) lifetime. Those things are not directly correlated.

 

[vicissitudes]

Only according to Polyphony's shipment numbers. Actual tracked sales from Enterbrain puts GT5P at 238k and GT5P Spec-III at 295k.

Hmm are those shipment numbers? Well 238k + 295k = 533k + digital sales = 550-600k? GT5 should comfortably beat that.

 

[gerg]

Hmm are those shipment numbers? Well 238k + 295k = 533k + digital sales = 550-600k? GT5 should comfortably beat that.

I don't think you can assume that the people buying GT5 Prologue Spec III were an entirely different group of people than those who bought GT5 Prologue. As a result, one could easily reduce the total LTD sales number to somewhere around 400k, if not lower.

 

[duckroll]

Hmm are those shipment numbers? Well 238k + 295k = 533k + digital sales = 550-600k? GT5 should comfortably beat that.

I don't think you understand though. You can't just combine both Prologue releases and expect GT5 itself to "comfortably" beat that. GT5P was released in 2007, GT5P Spec-III was released in 2008. Considering how both sold in the 200k region, and GT PSP has also sold in the 200k region, there is much more evidence suggesting that there are only about 200-300k super hardcore GT fans left in Japan who buy all the releases.

For reference, GT4 Prologue sold over 700k, and that's on a SINGLE retail release. GT4 went on to sell only just over 1 million. If you take that into account, and project that sort of improvement on GT5, we're looking at GT5 doing at best 600k. The fanbase has definitely slipped away since the PS2 days. Driving games, like fighting games, have definitely seen better days. Their glory days are clearly over in Japan though.

Edit: Beaten, but I have more detail!!!!

 

[vicissitudes]

I don't think you understand though. You can't just combine both Prologue releases and expect GT5 itself to "comfortably" beat that. GT5P was released in 2007, GT5P Spec-III was released in 2008. Considering how both sold in the 200k region, and GT PSP has also sold in the 200k region, there is much more evidence suggesting that there are only about 200-300k super hardcore GT fans left in Japan who buy all the releases.

For reference, GT4 Prologue sold over 700k, and that's on a SINGLE retail release. GT4 went on to sell only just over 1 million. If you take that into account, and project that sort of improvement on GT5, we're looking at GT5 doing at best 600k. The fanbase has definitely slipped away since the PS2 days. Driving games, like fighting games, have definitely seen better days. Their glory days are clearly over in Japan though.

Edit: Beaten, but I have more detail!!!!

Hmm good point, I forgot how gimped the original GT5 release was. Still, I don't think there's a huge overlap like you seem to think. I think 600k is the least GT5 should do.

 

[cvxfreak]

wrong thread

 

[Sage00]

Just 2 points:

1. Wasn't Spec III a free online upgrade (actually, a forced upgrade) to those who had the original GT5P? Why would a significant amount rebuy it?

2. Weren't a large proportion of GTP Spec III's sales due to it being bundled with PS3s? In that case, those people must be new buyers.

 

[duckroll]

1. Wasn't Spec III a free online upgrade (actually, a forced upgrade) to those who had the original GT5P? Why would a significant amount rebuy it?

There's about a year between the releases, they could have sold it or are buying it for collection. But that's a good point, it would reason that there are a substantial number of new buyers.

2. Weren't a large proportion of GTP Spec III's sales due to it being bundled with PS3s? In that case, those people must be new buyers.

In the first week maybe, but that only accounts for 34k out of 295k. Spec III had longass legs over several months.

 

[vicissitudes]

Just 2 points:

1. Wasn't Spec III a free online upgrade (actually, a forced upgrade) to those who had the original GT5P? Why would a significant amount rebuy it?

2. Weren't a large proportion of GTP Spec III's sales due to it being bundled with PS3s? In that case, those people must be new buyers.

I wasn't sure if it was a free online upgrade in Japan, I know it was in Europe/US. But after looking it up, you're right it was a free online upgrade. So hah duckroll.

 

[duckroll]

I wasn't sure if it was a free online upgrade in Japan, I know it was in Europe/US. But after looking it up, you're right it was a free online upgrade. So hah duckroll.

I honestly think you're just setting yourself up for a disappointment if you think that 600k is the "minimum" that GT5 will do in Japan. I can certainly see it doing more than that, but it could also do much worse. Racing games simply aren't selling the same way they used to on the PS1/PS2, just like fighting games.

 

[manueldelalas]

I would be pretty disappointed if FFXIII doesn't sell 1.5 million. I think it should reach that number easily.

DQVI should sell around 1-1.2 millions in total; there's no evidence that points that a new remake would sell more than that.

GT5 should do at least a million. It's true that GT4 struggled to get there, but it was the second game on the console; and I think there is a tendency that the first game in a franchise appearing in a console is a better seller.

 

[duckroll]

I would be pretty disappointed if FFXIII doesn't sell 1.5 million. I think it should reach that number easily.

I agree.

DQVI should sell around 1-1.2 millions in total; there's no evidence that points that a new remake would sell more than that.

This is the first remake of DQVI. That makes it a bigger deal than both DQIV and DQV on the DS. It should sell well over 1 million, but it will probably not hit the 1.6 million that the first DQV remake set on the PS2.

GT5 should do at least a million. It's true that GT4 struggled to get there, but it was the second game on the console; and I think there is a tendency that the first game in a franchise appearing in a console is a better seller.

This is not true at all. I'm not sure where this flawed mindset comes from. FFX did not sell more than FFIX. MGS4 did not sell more than MGS3. FFXIII is not going to sell more than FFXII. There is pretty much no evidence that a franchise facing fatigue on one platform, suddenly gets a revival from being the first game on the next platform. Care to provide some support on this?

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

If ToG doesn't do well I don't think there is one valid excuse to use for that one.

But what will be well in this case? better than Vesperia on 360? better than vesperia on PS3? better than Vesperia on 360+PS3?

And I think FFXIII will do better than most people here think, I'm not based on any fact, just a hunch.

 

[duckroll]

But what will be well in this case? better than Vesperia on 360? better than vesperia on PS3? better than Vesperia on 360+PS3?

Better than Vesperia on PS3 is a good start. If a brand new exclusive console Tales game with good reviews on the console with the highest installed base in the market can't outsell a year old port on a system with a much lower user base, then obviously the Tales target audience is on the PS3 and not the Wii. That much would be clear.

 

[manueldelalas]

This is not true at all. I'm not sure where this flawed mindset comes from. FFX did not sell more than FFIX. MGS4 did not sell more than MGS3. FFXIII is not going to sell more than FFXII. There is pretty much no evidence that a franchise facing fatigue on one platform, suddenly gets a revival from being the first game on the next platform. Care to provide some support on this?

But GT 3 did sell more than GT 2.

EDIT: To expand my point: GT1 sold more than GT2 with a much smaller install base.
GT3 sold more than GT2 on a much smaller install base.
GT4 sold a lot less than GT3 on a much bigger install base.

My theory: GT games rely heavily on graphics. Don't get me wrong; the handling, physics, etc are top notch; but they achieved that on the first game; and although they have improved them game to game, the big jump they make is when they switch consoles, because they do a huge bump in graphics.

So it's normal that the buyers of this franchise will be more excited about the first release on a console than on the second release.

 

[Road]

Someone was asking for Yoshi's Island sales. Both YSO and GDM list it as 1.77 million.


(I don't like it when the previous MC thread doesn't die. =P)

 

[duckroll]

But GT 3 did sell more than GT 2.

Maybe they shipped more, or they counted the Best re-releases. Based on the Famitsu Top500/Top300 charts, GT1 stopped tracking at 2.18 million, GT2 at 1.46 million, GT3 at 1.43 million, GT4 at 1.06 million. These are not counting the budget re-releases of each title. That shows a clear decline of the series over the years.