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[saichi]

Ouch. Sad. I just can't imagine a company like Sony doesn't have a huge E3 planned for their new handheld. Last year they had the graphic up of all the 3rd-parties willing to make games for the system.

Remember last year's VITA conference at TGS?

Is that a good second week for One Piece? lol

very

Do we have some pre-orders charts for Kid Icarus Uprising, or retailers expectations ? I'm feeling the hype has reached a new level with the big push from Nintendo. I'm now expecting a +150K for the launch and big legs to sold + 500k ltd.

was gonna call you crazy... then I see this

i really hope it does very well. i root for 800k to a million if all is said and done. i know have high maybe unrealistic expectations.

*

Do people seriously not remember the problems the 3DS had at launch?

Yes they do. The way some try and compare the two you'd think 3DS launched at $170 with two Mario games, and instantly took Japan by storm.

Comparing to what VITA is doing now, 3DS was doing awesome. even with all the 3DS problem in its early days before price cut, it was never doing this bad in Japan. 3DS was outselling VITA by a large margin at the same price in Japan.

 

[BKK]

Ps2+xbox is easily passable but this gen will never pass last gen ps2+xbox+cube

And let's not forget Dreamcast which sold more last gen (2.8m) than X360 and XBX combined.

 

[frankie_baby]

And let's not forget Dreamcast which sold more last gen (2.8m) than X360 and XBX combined.

whats a dreamcast?

 

[Lausebub]

Oh wow this post:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=6347276&postcount=300

Can't wait for the same comments just with an additional U after Wii.

And wow, PSV still over 10k. Eventually, it will fall bellow 10k soon. Or is their any game coming out soon that has long legs?

MGS3D extremely dissapointing...I guess it was too expensive and the market wasn't right for it. The Vita game will probably sell better than this.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Quite well overall, it has had far more hits than misses.

Great to decent performers:

Super Street Fighter IV: 3D Edition
Professor Layton and the Mask of Miracle
Samurai Warriors: Chronicles
Ridge Racer 3D
One Piece: Unlimited Cruise SP
Resident Evil: The Mercenaries 3D
Senran Kagura: Shoujotachi no Shinei
Tales of the Abyss
Monster Hunter 3G
Inazuma Eleven Go: Shine / Dark
SD Gundam G Generation 3D
Resident Evil: Revelations
Theatrhythm Final Fantasy
Harvest Moon: The Land of Origin
New Love Plus

Some flops:

BlazBlue: Continuum Shift II
Dead or Alive: Dimensions
Doctor Lautrec and the Forgotten Knights
Dragon Quest: Slime Morimori 3
Ace Combat: Assault Horizon Legacy
Beyond the Labyrinth
Tekken 3D: Prime Edition

Nice list, not sure about Dragon Quest though. It did sell poorly compared to the previous entry, but 100k+ is hardly a flop.

 

[Colonel Mustard]

MGS3D extremely dissapointing...I guess it was too expensive and the market wasn't right for it. The Vita game will probably sell better than this.

Please don't make things up.

It sold within about 20k of the HD collection on the PS3 with a smaller userbase, on a platform that doesn't typically play host to MGS games.

 

[gkryhewy]

Look at all that 3DS software. Impressive.

 

[Father_Brain]

Yes they do. The way some try and compare the two you'd think 3DS launched at $170 with two Mario games, and instantly took Japan by storm.

And the way some compare the two, you'd think Vita was from a company that had a history of multimillion-selling exclusive IP and had strong exclusive support from Capcom, Level 5, and Square Enix lined up months before it launched. Or that 3DS went weeks in a row selling in the 10K range.

 

[frankie_baby]

Nice list, not sure about Dragon Quest though. It did sell poorly compared to the previous entry, but 100k+ is hardly a flop.

for what it was i dont think it sold badly, iirc the rocket slime games are one of the lower selling DQ subseries and it was a very cheap and nasty to make (switched from ds with ds level graphics)

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I'd probably buy vanilla MGS1 for 3DS. I feel like it works better on a portable than MGS3.

Considering it had to work on controllers without analog sticks or buttons, definitely.

Yes they do. The way some try and compare the two you'd think 3DS launched at $170 with two Mario games, and instantly took Japan by storm.

No, but it launched with it being a pretty sure thing there'd be two Mario games by the end of the year.

Ps2+xbox is easily passable but this gen will never pass last gen ps2+xbox+cube

It seems possible, but it's mostly on PS3. The last two years were PS3's strongest, and this year is matching them so far. If it can have a decent 2012 and 2013, the combined WiiS360 tails could cover the rest.

Huh, I find that surprising. Is Japan the only territory where this will be true?

I think it's the only major territory where it's in question. Worldwide, X360 + PS3 + Wii is already well ahead of PS2 + GCN + Xbox.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

It seems possible, but it's mostly on PS3. The last two years were PS3's strongest, and this year is matching them so far. If it can have a decent 2012 and 2013, the combined WiiS360 tails could cover the rest.

Would Dragon Quest X cause a massive boost in Wii sales in Japan? Or do people think it will boost Wii U more?

 

[Mariah Carey]

I mean, I know these are actually extremely low sales but sometimes it still astonishes me that you could put a game system out there and do basically nothing and thousands of people will still buy it each week. Vita seems to have this floor where it will sell 10,000 a week no matter what. Hell, over 1000 people bought an Xbox last week, really? If you build it they will come, I guess.

 

[Colonel Mustard]

Would Dragon Quest X cause a massive boost in Wii sales in Japan? Or do people think it will boost Wii U more?

I don't think Dragon Quest is really that much of a system seller. It sells volumes to an already-established user base.

 

[Dr. Feel Good]

I mean, I know these are actually extremely low sales but sometimes it still astonishes me that you could put a game system out there and do basically nothing and thousands of people will still buy it each week. Vita seems to have this floor where it will sell 10,000 a week no matter what. Hell, over 1000 people bought an Xbox last week, really? If you build it they will come, I guess.

This really isn't that surprising. You can pretty much throw anything on a retail wall and it will sell to some interest base.

 

[TheNatural]

PSV | 10.041

 

[Divvy]

Oh wow this post:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=6347276&postcount=300

Can't wait for the same comments just with an additional U after Wii.

And wow, PSV still over 10k. Eventually, it will fall bellow 10k soon. Or is their any game coming out soon that has long legs?

MGS3D extremely dissapointing...I guess it was too expensive and the market wasn't right for it. The Vita game will probably sell better than this.

I like how its five years later and we still don't know this:

seriously doubt it,
games like MGS4 / DMC4 / White knight story / FF13 and FFversus 13 will sell a BUNCH in JP...
they are just patiently waiting for the right games to arrive...
I think PS3 will close up the gap with Wii by 1st quarter of 08

 

[TheNatural]

I mean, I know these are actually extremely low sales but sometimes it still astonishes me that you could put a game system out there and do basically nothing and thousands of people will still buy it each week. Vita seems to have this floor where it will sell 10,000 a week no matter what. Hell, over 1000 people bought an Xbox last week, really? If you build it they will come, I guess.

There's just a lot of people in this world, nothing every really hits zero. I imagine if there was stat tracking for every form of videogames played this past week, there were probably a thousand people in this world at least that played an Atari game in that week, for example.

 

[Lausebub]

Please don't make things up.

It sold within about 20k of the HD collection on the PS3 with a smaller userbase, on a platform that doesn't typically play host to MGS games.

Oh wow, I actually though it sold 3 times that. Yeah...forget what I said.

 

[timetokill]

3DS software is doing very well... I think that any Japanese publisher is looking at these numbers and making their choices accordingly. The longer this goes on, the bleaker things are for Vita's prospects.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

The Vita game will probably sell better than this.

I'm actually not too sure of that anymore. Should be fun to watch though...

 

[Colonel Mustard]

Oh wow, I actually though it sold 3 times that. Yeah...forget what I said.

Possibly lifetime sales.

First week to first week is all we can really go on at the moment. I don't expect MGS 3D to have colossal legs but this port probably didn't cost anything to do.

Roughly $15 and a box of donuts.

End Credits should go: original staff and special thanks to the sole person that did the 3DS port; Ted from accounting.

 

[bigtroyjon]

PSP(2011 YTD)=509,979
PSP+PSV(2012)=391,186

Looking ahead to Week 11, PSP did 23,511 in 2011, so 2012 should make up some ground.

3DS+DS(2011 YTD)=958,208
3DS+DS(2012 YTD)=983,971

Last ahead to Week 11, 3DS+DS did 75,984 last year, if 3DS can stay above 60K, the streams may not cross until the price cut happened, if they do at all.

All handhelds(2011 YTD)=1,468,187
All handhelds(2012 YTD)=1,375,157

Something else I think is interesting to look at.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

I don't think Dragon Quest is really that much of a system seller. It sells volumes to an already-established user base.

The week Dragon Quest 9 released the DS sold 128 K. The week prior to that it was at 54K. That is nearly quadruple the sales and the weeks prior the established baseline was in the 40K range. The DS didn't go back down to 54K until 3 months later. When Dragon Quest 8 released on PS2 it nearly doubled in sales. Both times when Dragon Quest released the hardware sold over 100K. I don't expect those crazy numbers from Wii but I do think that puts things in perspective.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

The week Dragon Quest released the DS sold 128 K. The week prior to that it was at 54K. That is nearly quadruple the sales. The DS didn't go back down to 54K until 3 months later. When Dragon Quest 8 released on PS2 it nearly doubled in sales.

Those also weren't fee based MMOs.

Compare FFXI's impact to FFX, FFXII or even FFXIII.

 

[kunonabi]

SFXT doing worse than Marvel? I'm pretty pleased about that I must say.

 

[guek]

Interesting stuff. I thought MGS3D was going to actually do significantly worse than that. Still not expecting over a 100k at absolute best but hey, it's better than mega-flopping like it has elsewhere in the world.

The other thing I'm wondering about is if MHTG is going to falll out of the top 10 next week. I'm not sure if I'm reading that release list for next week correctly, but it seems like the only major games coming out are Kid Icarus and Ninja Gaiden 3, correct? How well are people expecting Devil May Cry HD Collection to perform?

My hope for KI is it does 150k week 1. Gonna be exciting to see how its received

 

[jonno394]

The other thing I'm wondering about is if MHTG is going to falll out of the top 10 next week. I'm not sure if I'm reading that release list for next week correctly, but it seems like the only major games coming out are Kid Icarus and Ninja Gaiden 3, correct? How well are people expecting Devil May Cry HD Collection to perform?

Can't see it happening, new Bundles will push it higher up the chart in all likelihood.

edit - MH Bundles are the 17th right, so it will be affect next weeks charts, or is my timing off??

 

[thehypocrite]

3DS software is doing very well... I think that any Japanese publisher is looking at these numbers and making their choices accordingly. The longer this goes on, the bleaker things are for Vita's prospects.

I think that if publishers are looking at numbers in Japan they would target PS3/PSP instead of 3DS. Why do you think they would be looking at 3DS?

 

[Region-FreeWii]

Vita up 0.2% & 3DS down 2%... Wow, the 3DS' drop is 10x bigger than Vita's climb.

Also, go Mario Kart! Keep selling! I love facing Japanese people online when I play at 2am EST.

Spoiler

They tend not to choose Maka Wuha so much

 

[muu]

Those also weren't fee based MMOs.

Compare FFXI's impact to FFX, FFXII or even FFXIII.

FF11 also required a costly (12800yen) network/HDD expansion unit that was only available through mail-order. Assuming they pack in whatever sized USB drive is necessary for the game there's no additional items needed to start playing, and the lowered barrier to entry should make the game sell significantly better. Certainly won't see DQ9 numbers, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 500K units at launch. That's a number that took 2 years to achieve thru worldwide sales of FF11.

 

[Exterminieren]

I think that if publishers are looking at numbers in Japan they would target PS3/PSP instead of 3DS. Why do you think they would be looking at 3DS?

Erm... because 3DS games from a variety of publishers make up half of the top 20? With the console still building its base?

Not a totally illogical conclusion to draw.

 

[The_lascar]

Huh, I find that surprising. Is Japan the only territory where this will be true?

In terms of worldwide shipment:
PS3+360+Wii > PS2+NGC+XBX+DC.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

Those also weren't fee based MMOs.

Compare FFXI's impact to FFX, FFXII or even FFXIII.

He said he didn't think of DQ as a system seller which is the point I was disputing. I still do think Wii will see significant rises in hardware sales compared to the completely dead sales of recently but I don't think they're going to be anywhere close to DS and PS2 sales when they launched.

However, there are a lot of factors to consider. An MMO as well as being a dual launch for Wii/Wii U is unprecedent. Who knows how the audience will react.

 

[thehypocrite]

Erm... because 3DS games from a variety of publishers make up half of the top 20? With the console still building its base?

Not a totally illogical conclusion to draw.

Because of 1 week? That seems silly to me.

The platforms that currently have clearly defined userbases and are a safest beat to reach profitability (In Japan) are PSP/PS3 for Big/Medium/Small developers, they have the lowest percentage of risk, clearly defined trends and if the aim is to cater the japanese audience they seem to provide the best environment.

So please explain why you think all this should be discounted because of 1 week of data?

That does strike me as illogical.

 

[bigtroyjon]

The week Dragon Quest 9 released the DS sold 128 K. The week prior to that it was at 54K. That is nearly quadruple the sales

That's a very liberal use of the word nearly, not even triple the sales.

 

[botty]

Vita up 0.2% & 3DS down 2%... Wow, the 3DS' drop is 10x bigger than Vita's climb.

Definitely the funniest thing I've read all day.

 

[LOCK]

People saw the Fire Emblem bundle and made the right decision to wait a little more.

New bundles starting this week, new color next week.

Are these actively being advertised right now in Japan, or is it merely a sign stores that stores will set up once it is actually released.

 

[AndrewDean84xX]

Anyone know, roughly, what the worldwide numbers are for the Vita and 3DS?

 

[Principate]

I think that if publishers are looking at numbers in Japan they would target PS3/PSP instead of 3DS. Why do you think they would be looking at 3DS?

Because 7 out of 10 of the chart are 3DS games, PSP being an aging console that'll probably continue it's decline into in importance however slowly with the 3DS being a new console that'll probably continue to sell well for several years. The PS3 is a HD console which hasn't sold great software or hardware wise in Japan. It's pretty funny you brought that up. It has it's demographic and games suited for it that does well, but it's hardly the home of super sellers.

 

[Wazzim]

I mean, I know these are actually extremely low sales but sometimes it still astonishes me that you could put a game system out there and do basically nothing and thousands of people will still buy it each week. Vita seems to have this floor where it will sell 10,000 a week no matter what. Hell, over 1000 people bought an Xbox last week, really? If you build it they will come, I guess.

U hatin' on xbox bro?

It's still a great system, the more Japanese people will see that the better.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Anyone know, roughly, what the worldwide numbers are for the Vita and 3DS?

Vita should be close to 2M, and 3DS close to 20M.

Last known official numbers:

PSV - 1.2M (sold, as of Feb 2012)
3DS - 15M (shipped, as of Dec 2011)

 

[Wazzim]

Vita should be close to 2M, and 3DS close to 20M.

Last known official numbers:

PSV - 1.2M (sold, as of Feb 2012)
3DS - 15M (shipped, as of Dec 2011)

I don't know if Vita sold 800k since Feb, I really doubt it.

 

[bigtroyjon]

Vita should be close to 2M, and 3DS close to 20M.

Last known official numbers:

PSV - 1.2M (sold, as of Feb 2012)
3DS - 15M (shipped, as of Dec 2011)

lol, 3DS should be at roughly 17.5 million shipped at the end of March. It isn't anywhere close to 20 million.

 

[muu]

Because of 1 week? That seems silly to me.

The platforms that currently have clearly defined userbases and are a safest beat to reach profitability (In Japan) are PSP/PS3 for Big/Medium/Small developers, they have the lowest percentage of risk, clearly defined trends and if the aim is to cater the japanese audience they seem to provide the best environment.

So please explain why you think all this should be discounted because of 1 week of data?

That does strike me as illogical.

And it's logical to ignore the last several months' worth of sales where we've had similar sales domination by 3DS titles? I don't understand this.

We're seeing the last of the PSP games now, and within a year you'll see a situation similar to the PS2 in its later years: some dating sim ports and a scant few low-budget titles that are out more to milk the fanbase of some niche title. Any proper game starting NOW (which means you'll see them in a year or two at the earliest) is not being developed for the PSP.

 

[thehypocrite]

Because 7 out of 10 of the chart are 3DS games, PSP being an aging console that'll probably continue it's decline into in importance however slowly with the 3DS being a new console that'll probably continue to sell well for several years. The PS3 is a HD console which hasn't sold great software or hardware wise in Japan. It's pretty funny you brought that up. It has it's demographic and games suited for it that does well, but it's hardly the home of super sellers.

1 week of data = insufficient sample for any decision.

PSP is selling hardware and software just fine.

The PS3 is selling a good amount of hardware and software.

The 3DS has 3 super sellers. a couple of good selling games & average to Bomba are the resulting sales for the majority of titles released.

The traditional gaming market in japan is contracting. Thus developers would try to minimize their risks, 3DS isn't the best option to do that.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

That's a very liberal use of the word nearly, not even triple the sales.

Wow.........That's terrible. I don't know what happened there......................

FF11 also required a costly (12800yen) network/HDD expansion unit that was only available through mail-order. Assuming they pack in whatever sized USB drive is necessary for the game there's no additional items needed to start playing, and the lowered barrier to entry should make the game sell significantly better. Certainly won't see DQ9 numbers, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 500K units at launch. That's a number that took 2 years to achieve thru worldwide sales of FF11.

Not too mention DQ has lasted much longer as a high selling series than FF and that DQ handidly outsells FF. DQ9's first two days of sales sold more than FFX and FFX2's life time sales(ignoring remixes).

 

[Wazzim]

Japanese pubs are going to main 3DS and port to Vita, that's the most logical thing they can do.

 

[KillGore]

Such a shame for Sony. Hardware wise, the Vita is close to handheld perfection in my opinion. Obviously software wise it isn't, but it could have so much potential, if devs would take the risk, but they won't. Wonder what Sony will do now...

Imagine a Rhythm Heaven type game for Vita, for example.

 

[thehypocrite]

And it's logical to ignore the last several months' worth of sales where we've had similar sales domination by 3DS titles? I don't understand this.

We're seeing the last of the PSP games now, and within a year you'll see a situation similar to the PS2 in its later years: some dating sim ports and a scant few low-budget titles that are out more to milk the fanbase of some niche title. Any proper game starting NOW (which means you'll see them in a year or two at the earliest) is not being developed for the PSP.

We have seen domination of 3 3DS games and 2 games performing good(HM/RE). In that same time frame we have seen multiple successful games for PS3 and PSP. The software in general for 3DS isn't comparable for all developers to start shifting all their projects to 3DS, that's not realistic thinking in my opinion.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

The traditional gaming market in japan is contracting. Thus developers would try to minimize their risks, 3DS isn't the best option to do that.

Is this true(serious question I've got no clue)? Wii/PS3/360 might not make it to the same sales of PS2/GCN/Xbox but it'll be pretty close. If we include Wii/PS3/360/DS/PSP versus PS2/GCN/Xbox/GBA/Dreamcast I think we'd see tremendous growth. Even if we got rid of the PSP. I think the console market is shrinking but handhelds are definetly growing.