Flightmare
Member
beyond?
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Media Create Sales: Week 18, 2013 (Apr 29 - May 05)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
beyond?
Definitely not in Japan.
I know it doesn't make much sense, but I think most of those HD Collections would have done better if released separately on 3DS or Vita.
For example, I think Kingdom Hearts alone could've sold those 200k units on Vita or Yakuza 1 better than the 42k the Yakuza HD Collection did in the first week. And development costs shouldn't have been much higher.
For example, I think Kingdom Hearts alone could've sold those 200k units on Vita or Yakuza 1 better than the 42k the Yakuza HD Collection did in the first week. And development costs shouldn't have been much higher.
I'm rooting for Puppeteer personally but it probably won't do too well.
Cosmo Clock 21
Banned
It's a two-way street; some of us were surprised that the PSV budget rereleases failed to chart in any significant fashion the past two weeks.
Most people predicting lower sales week after week for the Vita aren't doing so because they have a hate-on for the system, but because historically, hardware sales tend to depress when no new software titles launch or released titles fail to have legs. There's no agenda here, just rational assessments of known variables.
The fact that the Vita did 17-20k despite only one title charting in the top 30 is weird as hell. Might it have to do with a healthier digital economy? Maybe. But we don't have numbers for digital releases, so we can't form an accurate picture of the situation and put little weight in the possibility when making predictions.
Most people predicting lower sales week after week for the Vita aren't doing so because they have a hate-on for the system, but because historically, hardware sales tend to depress when no new software titles launch or released titles fail to have legs. There's no agenda here, just rational assessments of known variables.
The fact that the Vita did 17-20k despite only one title charting in the top 30 is weird as hell. Might it have to do with a healthier digital economy? Maybe. But we don't have numbers for digital releases, so we can't form an accurate picture of the situation and put little weight in the possibility when making predictions.
Bruno MB
Member
Next main Tales of will reach 500k mark and Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain too.
Although not likely Winning Eleven 2014 at least stands a chance. Winning Eleven 2012 managed to sell half a million units.
And how about Dark Souls 2? In this case maybe 300k since the franchise probably peaked with Dark Souls. Dark Souls + Dark Souls: Artorias of the Abyss is around 465k (Media Create).
Sengoku Basara 4 will do around 300k too, although Sengoku Basara 3 is at 500k if we include Wii version.
Other than maybe JoJo's Bizarre Adventure All-Star Battle or Project Versus J I don't remember more big games for PS3.
darkside31337
Tomodachi wa Mahou
Gonna go out on a limb and say that the next Call of Duty is the last 500k game.
Except the fact that selling 20k a week isn't that exactly something to write home about either.
Gianni Merryman
Member
Actually that would be nothing unprecedented, I sort of remind something similar happened with PSP back in the day - and also with PS3 at launch for that matter -, hardware performing better than the software, hence some said something along the lines of "PSP sells with no games"; in fact PSP was a MP3/media player aside from a handheld console, and the same thing could be argued about Vita..
The used games market probably plays a big role in Vita software sales.
No one in the era of smartphones is buying Vita for its Multimedia abilities.
Also Japan, land of the cheap UMDs for miles and miles is the last place to be swung by the Vita being the ultimate home of PSP games.
Not having that detestable drive is probably the single worst mistake Sony made with the Vita.
Also Japan, land of the cheap UMDs for miles and miles is the last place to be swung by the Vita being the ultimate home of PSP games.
Not having that detestable drive is probably the single worst mistake Sony made with the Vita.
Sammy Samusu
Member
strangedopamine
Member
StreetsAhead
Member
Anecdote time!
Vita's sheld space at my local Aeon has not been reduced, but they have moved it to a weird potable shelf on wheels that's pressed up against a wall in the back of the gaming section.
There are SIX Vita games on the shelves. I mean, six actual boxes. The shelf space it was allotted probably would allow for 12 at most. The PSP section is about 5X that, in terms of product on shelves.
Wii U has 14 actual boxes. Wii is about 2 times that. 3DS has too many to count, as does DS. Probably up at +/-50 for both. PS3 was about 30. No Xbox.
At least at this shop, Vita is still not doing well.
Vita's sheld space at my local Aeon has not been reduced, but they have moved it to a weird potable shelf on wheels that's pressed up against a wall in the back of the gaming section.
There are SIX Vita games on the shelves. I mean, six actual boxes. The shelf space it was allotted probably would allow for 12 at most. The PSP section is about 5X that, in terms of product on shelves.
Wii U has 14 actual boxes. Wii is about 2 times that. 3DS has too many to count, as does DS. Probably up at +/-50 for both. PS3 was about 30. No Xbox.
At least at this shop, Vita is still not doing well.
Gianni Merryman
Member
I don't know, I wouldn't dismiss Vita's multimedia capabilities.
I mean, I gather Vita's target audience in Japan - not differently from PSP - is mostly otaku-oriented, and the thing seems to be just the perfect manga-ebook reader, so after the price cut it may be perceived as a cheap multi-media device with high-value features compared to products in the same price-range, again not differently from PSP back in the day.
Of course Vita is also a handheld console with some good games that could be found in the used-market for cheap, but what I'm saying is that some people may want to purchase one even with no game, just for its tech, not to slight the fact that tablets/smart-phones market is much bigger now than 10 years ago.
By the way something similar could be argued about 3DS, that before price-cut and the trinity had a terrible line-up, still it kept selling regardless, maybe just on the promise of future line-up or maybe just on account of the novelty of its 3D screen.
Agreed here, although I can also understand why Sony wanted to ditch UMDs altogether as they had little choice, for sure the lack of physical BC with PSP didn't help to bank on its popularity and the huge PSP back-catalogue in Japan.
Want to move the goalpost eh?
Say you have a home console, the Gaf. You see handheld gaming taking off crazily through mobiles, as well as the effects that has on gaming habits, you worry, you design a high-end portable made for convenience but comparable to the home system. You call it Gaf portable.
Do you heavily push Gaf portable during the Gaf's lifetime? Having the two products compete with each other?
Or, do you release the Gaf2 home system, re-market Gaf1 and heavily push a portable Gaf(1) to cover your bases.
aka wait for PS4 to land for a while, for Sony to save Vita.
butbut the shopkeepa will take down the vitas before then!
They had a deal a while ago right? Is it still available to people who want to swap UMD to digital? I know it was Japan only.
Say you have a home console, the Gaf. You see handheld gaming taking off crazily through mobiles, as well as the effects that has on gaming habits, you worry, you design a high-end portable made for convenience but comparable to the home system. You call it Gaf portable.
Do you heavily push Gaf portable during the Gaf's lifetime? Having the two products compete with each other?
Or, do you release the Gaf2 home system, re-market Gaf1 and heavily push a portable Gaf(1) to cover your bases.
aka wait for PS4 to land for a while, for Sony to save Vita.
butbut the shopkeepa will take down the vitas before then!
They had a deal a while ago right? Is it still available to people who want to swap UMD to digital? I know it was Japan only.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
I actually don't see how the PS4 helps the Vita at all. The Vita's current support has a large proportion of ps3 ports, ps4 games most probably won't be as easily ported due to their complexity and general assumption of much better hardware much like how the PSP did not receive very many PS3 ports in comparison to PS2.
This means when PS4 reaches full swing the Vita would be getting even less support than it normally would be if it was just the PS3 and the Vita. The only time this won't be the case is cross gen which isn't inherently better than position the Vita is in now.
You had to pay to play them on your Vita, and not all games were available for the UMD Passport thing. The PSP did really well in Japan, they should have released an attachable add-on at least.
^ Attachable add-on would be great yeah. There's a pretty useless port at the moment...who knows. Seems a bit unlikely though. It would have been better but I was never a fan of UMD, a lot of mine still sealed truth be told. I'm sure it would have helped a lot more in Japan though yeah...I can understand having to have played them first so people don't running out and grabbing second hand games for cheap licenses, although strange how they'd be able to tell that you did play it.
Cross gen will be as the ps3 becomes less interesting due to the ps4, and a portable ps3 more so.
PS4 doesn't help the vita, pushing the vita while also pushing the ps3 doesn't help yourself though. When the ps4 is out, there will be more of a difference between the platforms that they can push and end up eating less of their own sales, if they were to push now.
What do you think?
Cross gen will be as the ps3 becomes less interesting due to the ps4, and a portable ps3 more so.
PS4 doesn't help the vita, pushing the vita while also pushing the ps3 doesn't help yourself though. When the ps4 is out, there will be more of a difference between the platforms that they can push and end up eating less of their own sales, if they were to push now.
What do you think?
metalslimer
Member
lol The PS4 will be Vita's final blow if anything as Sony moves on to a much more profitable platform.
The market does not exist in bubbles and people don't have unlimited money.
PS4 is even more different from psvita than ps3 is. It also supports it much more. This would be a general positive assessment from waiting imo.
Waiting till after the PS4 hits is the worst thing to do. The PS3 is going to be marketed less, only its games should be marketed (unless an overdue price cut occurs). The Vita should have been marketed extensively since last year. Sony is going to put a hell of a lot of a marketing push behind the PS4. The Vita and PS3 will be "nothing" to them at that point.
Let's not forget money...
metalslimer
Member
So PS4 will kill off Vita's sales even further then. There is no master plan to wait and then Sony will give Vita everything they have. They've already apparently moved a lot of development away from the device. I feel like they are going to predict shipping 1 million next year and you will find a way to say its a part of some grand design
Principate
Saint Titanfall
That doesn't make sense either since the install base won't be there which will dissuade third parties from developing for it which means even should you later decided to relaunch it, it would solely be on the back of first party games and even should the relaunch be successful it'll be a year or two before renewed third party support starts materializing and by that time any relaunch momentum is gone, those games most probably bomb or don't drive enough hardware sales and your back to square one.
This is ignoring the fact the Sony simply doesn't have relaunch capable first party software. Nintendo does and even they realised they had to take drastic measures as fast as physically possible in order to save the 3DS.
metalslimer
Member
Well good for you I guess, but you seem to think everything exists in some kind of fantasy land where the PS4 will be in some magic bubble that doesn't affect anything else.
Probably more as Vita will easily do the best in Japan. Even at 10k a week it would be more than America.
electroplankton
Banned
Guys,
Sony forecasted 5 mln PSP+Vita in this fiscal year. It's a clear statement that they're not going to push the product anymore. 5 mln means that they're expecting at most 3.5 mln Vita, so what, about a mln in Japan?
Sony forecasted 5 mln PSP+Vita in this fiscal year. It's a clear statement that they're not going to push the product anymore. 5 mln means that they're expecting at most 3.5 mln Vita, so what, about a mln in Japan?
Dark_AnNiaLatOr
Member
Hmm yea, I just calculated out 1 million in Japan, and it would be about 19,231 sales per week for the 52 weeks. Of course that's an average, and it will sell more in certain weeks and such. I think Vita will sell a bit more than 1 million in Japan though, maybe about 1.5 million.
shinra-bansho
Member
The PS3 was $600 and was competing against the Wii craze, the cheaper 360 and the $129 PS2.
I don't think smartphones and tablets are substitutes for home consoles in the same way that they substitute dedicated gaming handhelds.
There isn't, or doesn't seem to be, any significant investment in Vita. Would there be significant gain in resources from discontinuation and would they be of substantial benefit to the PS4. I'm not really sure.
Gianni Merryman
Member
Imo more like 2m in Japan and 1.5 in the rest of the world.
metalslimer
Member
More PS4 manufacturing? More warehouse space?
Principate
Saint Titanfall
I wonder how much surplus vita's Sony has because at 3-4 million a year the economies of scale are really going to hurt them.
shinra-bansho
Member
I imagine PS4 manufacturing will essentially be constrained by how their suppliers can make components rather than any dependency on whatever is still being put into Vita.
Similarly, I don't think whatever warehouse space the negligible numbers of Vita produced will be of significant impact.
Conversely, a two year product cycle/discontinuation could damage consumer confidence in product viability (e.g. I'm actually of the opinion the rapid post-launch price drop of the 3DS did some damage early adopter confidence in future Nintendo products and possibly gaming products in general, while it was necessary at the time).
I don't see any major opportunity gain in the rapid discontinuation of Vita really. If the product continues to decline (which it probably will) I expect a slower phase out. Maybe end production some time in (late) 2014, product phased out by end of 2015 at latest. No more dedicated handhelds from Sony.
I'm still sticking with my suggestion from many months ago that they should have just included the UMD drive in the Vita. It would have been bulky, and probably ugly to boot - but honestly, it really couldn't have sold much worse than what the Vita has sold up to this point worldwide. And the potential would have been there to help migrate over the PSP base who had a significant investment in UMD games.
Then, after 12-18 months (like somewhere around now - maybe even make a big splash for the 2012 XMas season), that core group of PSP supporters has transitioned, and then Sony comes out with the current model. Much like the DS Phat going to DS Lite, it allows for an easy relaunch, with the sexy new hotness replacing the bulky, ugly predecessor. Removing the UMD drive would also allow for an easy and appealing price drop with the new model. All of a sudden, the Vita might have a shot at picking up some real interest and mindshare worldwide.
Hindsight and all that - it obviously wouldn't have worked with Sony's original projection of selling 10M Vitas in the first full fiscal year - but that didn't work out anyway. As things actually played out, including the UMD drive would have been the move that offered the best long-term upside.
No, I've thought about this:
PS4 [an expensive new purchase] -> lower interest in PS3 from hardcore demographic -> eventually less of the games advertised on PS3 as they directly affect sales on PS4 - Vita games however, won't -> heavily pushing the vita (finally) leads to less negative effects on first and third party sales that would have been on PS3, without affecting PS4 sales as much. Possibly even helping it, seeing how it will interact with the PS4 - making it portable.
If they were to push it, that would be the time for attempting to pull a much larger userbase with high investments in advertising, timed with the western price cut and games. Is that around TGS?
Vita games compare worse to PS4 games than PS3 games (which people have claimed make vita games obsolete). The fact that it is portable, especially in an age of growing handheld gaming, is the only way ps3 type/quality (and similar production cost, although probably less) games could survive when next-gen comes along making big publishers incredibly competitive to ensure their survival, even more than now. With high development costs and the general market's habits leaning toward handheld, Vita will cover the PS4's ass for Sony. But right now it's just moving sales from one column to another and marketing etc would be somewhat wasteful, given the initial uptake wasn't as much as they thought.
Wii U likely won't be reaching this market. Gamepad helps but it's not going to get the support PS4 will have, nor will the gamepad stream next-gen games like the vita+ps4 will universally. A different demographic will still find it appealing, but it shouldn't hurt the vita. The next xbox might if people become less convinced handheld gaming is even worthwhile. But with companies dropping out, pickings might be slim. You might have to enjoy the convenience of portable gaming.
PS4 games will also be expensive. FPS, action and adventure is ps360 dev's bread and butter - it's left to the vita eventually since ps360 hurt nextgen sales more than they are worth down the road and we know about wii u with these games.
So, this only happens when the userbase buying games shifts to next-gen games, for the time in-between, Vita becomes more relevant for multi-platform ports, possibly later seeing more Vita upscaled games on PS3, encouraging the userbase to upgrade even more like we saw from psp to ps2.
Provided Sony push the Vita more when the PS4 is out.
Not everyone has to buy everything. But the option for handheld is there if you want it. It will also be a nice place for indies and some publishers to make reasonably priced games that aren't next-gen's AAA!
Its relevance will only grow as I see it. I'm sure Sony sees that too, they're just modest and more cautious now that they've had to give up their bonus.
It's not that long of a wait I don't think. I'm sure they have plans for in-between. Things are going to take a while from now on I feel. Multiports etc.
Sony has GT, GoW, Infamous, Ratchet and Clank. It could by then moneyhat FF, MGS and best GTA. Infamous and killzone may not have the best pull in the PS360 market, but that's not the same as the competition on handheld.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Honestly everything about the Vita was an accident waiting to happen, I'm pretty certain or I'd at least hope Sony realised the Vita was never going to do well world wide. Since it's inception design and everything it was the PSP 2 without the advantages the PSP had so it was doomed to follow the back end sales of PSP's lifetime. The only logical reason for the Vita's creation was Japan with a few sales here and there from the rest of the world. Sony somehow managed to turn even that glimmer of hope into worst case scenario (proving the psp's success in Japan was likely in spite of them).
Surely at least the worldwide situation was easily foreseeable it doesn't take 2+2 to see the most probable scenario.
Sony is at the point where's it's predicting to sell 5 million a year, it's over outside of a miracle game. We're at the point weren't the Vita likely won't even sell one 9th (could be 8th I forgot), of the psp's total in it's lifetime. Even Sony's given up why do you have hope.
I think you meant DS Lite -> DSi, but yea, I agree with this. If they want to cut down on costs, just do this for Europe and Japan since the PSP did pretty good in Europe and great in Japan.
I hate to be this blunt and rude, but wow this post...
I see terrible math that I can't follow, leaps of flawed logic, lots of wishful thinking, and lots of assumptions rolled up into one post.
Feel free to point anything out, specifically that invalidates what I said about pushing the Vita more during the ps4 than the ps3 to be smarter. The rest of it was just for your pleasure.
That prediction is for before what I'm talking about. About a year, maybe more, maybe a bit less.
The Vita probably isn't going to hit that forecast so its not really lowballing.
lets say end of next year 149.99 vita and monster hunter game? are people going to still doubt that the system is not going to sell? now i know this is a what if scenario and people are going to jump on me for saying i am living in fantasy land and this won't happen etc... but you have to admit it is not out of the realm of possibility. this possible scenario is for people that are like so sure that vita is dead and is never making a comeback.
right now sony is probably trying to make sure they are not losing money on vita so there is no pressure on them for continuing vita production. especially with memory card and decent software sales it is highly unlikely they are losing money on this thing. i highly doubt Sony is going to admit defeat and leave the dedicated handheld market all to nintendo. like it or not, bad sales or not vita is going to live on for a long time whether as a niche device or a late bloomer as people buy them as the price goes down. i mean for god sake they supported move and psp for so long and still do even though it was supposedly dead in the west
right now sony is probably trying to make sure they are not losing money on vita so there is no pressure on them for continuing vita production. especially with memory card and decent software sales it is highly unlikely they are losing money on this thing. i highly doubt Sony is going to admit defeat and leave the dedicated handheld market all to nintendo. like it or not, bad sales or not vita is going to live on for a long time whether as a niche device or a late bloomer as people buy them as the price goes down. i mean for god sake they supported move and psp for so long and still do even though it was supposedly dead in the west
Why the hell would Capcom do this?
As it stands MH4 will be out increasing the Monster Hunter and 3DS fanbase even more then it already is, all the while Vita will be doing nothing. Your senario would require Capcom to decide to not follow up on the masssive install base they've already taken the time to build as well as the overall install base which is going to only get more monstrous compared to Vita when Pokemon X/Y and Monster Hunter 4 ship.
First, please tell me how Vita games affect the PS3?
Second, why would they push the Vita when they are pushing the PS4? With your logic, wouldn't pushing the Vita affect first-party/third-party games for the PS4?
Third, where are people going to get this money to afford a PS4 + PSV + PS4 games + PSV games?
Fourth, handheld gaming is not growing, smartphone gaming is growing. This affects both the Vita and the 3DS.
Fifth, a developer could make a "PS3-quality" game on the PS4 with most likely the same budget. One does not have to break the bank to make a PS4 game.
Sixth, why is it left to Vita if PS360 games hurt next-gen sales?
I'm gonna state this one thing which really did not come across your mind when you made that post. Developers and Publishers will STILL SUPPORT THE PS360 after next-gen hits with CROSS-GEN GAMES. They will continue to do so until they see it isn't worth the investment and that will probably be until a year and maybe a few months into the release of the next-gen consoles.
What happened to Sony fudging the numbers? Wouldn't they need to un-fudge them now?
They don't need to, but everyone wishes they did. It really is bullshit towards investors.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Your talking about a best case scenario for Japan and even then A) your assuming Capcom will be willing to develop an exclusive game for the Vita or risk jeopardising some of the games sales on the 3DS for a significantly lower user base B) that a MH game would be enough to kickstart the system to even get the hardware sales for healthy software ecosystem (The PSP 's install base was a actually a fair amount before MH hit it's stride and C) Sony would be able to get hardware prices that low outside of clearance.
Your talking about the equivalence of miracle game. Take your train of thought and apply to every failed platform in existence. See my point?
Exterminieren
Banned
If every 3DS was found to spit battery acid into the eyes of 4 year olds and Vita was discovered to raise the dead, then Vita may outsell 3DS.
Wild predictions don't help much in terms of forecasting future events. Do you really think cheaper than 3DS prices and a Vita Mon Hun big enough to counteract MH4 will happen by the end of next year?
ShockingAlberto
Member
StreetsAhead
Member
Sony predicts 5 million PSP and PSV this year. IIRC, they predicted 16 million last year.
They have no faith in the Vita.
End of next year 3DS will likely be 15M LTD, with a pre-installed MH userbase, while Vita will be around 3M. The likelihood of a 'real' MH title goes down with time, not up.
They have no faith in the Vita.
End of next year 3DS will likely be 15M LTD, with a pre-installed MH userbase, while Vita will be around 3M. The likelihood of a 'real' MH title goes down with time, not up.