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[michaelius]

Sony:

Sony is probably in the most precarious situation simply by virtue that they don't have a relevant first party in Japan. The only team at SCEJ that has proven they can consistently release hit games is Polyphony, who takes forever and has sales that are good but extremely Euro-centric. This means that Sony will once again have to rely on third parties and/or first party publishing deals with independent developers. ....

I don't think Sony needs to do much to atract third party games- with HD development costs Japanise companies need to go WW with their games and if they want to have any success globaly than Orbis/Durango is natural target for multiplatform releases with optional PC port - Wii U might be thrown into the bunch with inferior port if sales make such a thing profitable.

Both companies are in same place where they were at start of this gen - except this time Sony won't suffer from insane pricing and development hell that ps3 was in first years while Nintendo won't be selling even close to numbers Wii did in Japan.

 

[Aquamarine]

I don't think Sony needs to do much to atract third party games- with HD development costs Japanise companies need to go WW with their games and if they want to have any success globaly than Orbis/Durango is natural target for multiplatform releases with optional PC port - Wii U might be thrown into the bunch with inferior port if sales make such a thing profitable.

Both companies are in same place where they were at start of this gen - except this time Sony won't suffer from insane pricing and development hell that ps3 was in first years while Nintendo won't be selling even close to numbers Wii did in Japan.

With "HD development costs," Japanese developers will just forego the PS4 / 720 for the 3DS. I can't even begin to count how many studios have already decided to skip the PS3 / 360 for big games.

 

[michaelius]

With "HD development costs," Japanese developers will just forego the PS4 / 720 for the 3DS. I can't even begin to count how many studios have already decided to skip the PS3 / 360 for big games.

Yeah that's why small Japan only games will go to handhelds while big stuff will go for machines selling software in west.

 

[Soriku]

With "HD development costs," Japanese developers will just forego the PS4 / 720 for the 3DS. I can't even begin to count how many studios have already decided to skip the PS3 / 360 for big games.

A lot of the devs that have had success and made the PS3/360 successful will go to PS4/720. The rest that made DS/PSP games will continue to make 3DS, and to an (probably much lower compared to PSP) extent, Vita games.

 

[schuelma]

Both companies are in same place where they were at start of this gen - except this time Sony won't suffer from insane pricing and development hell that ps3 was in first years while Nintendo won't be selling even close to numbers Wii did in Japan.

That's an absurd statement. The companies are in extremely different places than they were in 2005-2006 when development choices were made.

 

[Hyunickel]

Still crazy how well the 3DS is doing, Monster Hunter 4 isn't even out yet and its still selling like hotcakes!

 

[Aquamarine]

A lot of the devs that have had success and made the PS3/360 successful will go to PS4/720. The rest that made DS/PSP games will continue to make 3DS, and to an (probably much lower compared to PSP) extent, Vita games.

Ehh...that's definitely up in the air. There's been a good amount of low-budget, niche Japanese-only games for the PS3 and 360, but I'm really not convinced those companies will immediately just jump over to their next consoles. There are just so many factors to take into consideration.

 

[donny2112]

It is at 25k. Trust us.

Without a public source of that information, it should not have been posted, unless we are to assume that Chris1964 has access to source data that he can share like creamsugar in NPD threads.

Maximum possible for Zombi U (i.e. if it was #31 for every week since launch):

20121209 - 11,226

~Max for #31:
20121216 - 9.5K
20121223 - 16.5K
20121230 - 11.5K
20130106 - 11.0K
20130113 - 3.0K

Max possible total: 62.7K

No one in their right minds thinks that a Wii U game that started @ #16 and is unlikely to have legs will constantly stay just outside of the Top 30 each week. Therefore < 50K is impeccably reasonable as a guess.

Would the conversation change if it were

NSMBU - 441K
NL - 265K
MH3GHD - 188K
Zombi U - < 50K

?

 

[Nirolak]

I don't think Sony needs to do much to atract third party games- with HD development costs Japanise companies need to go WW with their games and if they want to have any success globaly than Orbis/Durango is natural target for multiplatform releases with optional PC port - Wii U might be thrown into the bunch with inferior port if sales make such a thing profitable.

What you're saying here only makes sense for like the 5-10 biggest worldwide sales third party games coming out of Japan, like Metal Gear Solid or Resident Evil.

What Sony also needs is the support of developers who appeal to the local market on the 200-600K level, but might not sell much outside of the region.

These are developers who's PS3 games often look like PS2 games, and thus the 3DS may also be a valid option for their series, so they need some kind of incentive to make them for the PS4.

Development cost isn't so much an issue since they're going to spend about the same amount of money regardless of the platform, but they will need some kind of incentive (either monetary or otherwise) to put the game on PS4 instead of an established platform like the 3DS or PS3.

 

[farnham]

A lot of the devs that have had success and made the PS3/360 successful will go to PS4/720. The rest that made DS/PSP games will continue to make 3DS, and to an (probably much lower compared to PSP) extent, Vita games.

I think with vita tanking so hard and with no monhun ressurection on the horizon it will be difficult for them. The smaller japanese focused third parties that dont sell millions of copies will probably try to get to 3ds or wiiu development. Its up to nintendo really to encourage them or maybe even buy such studios for better software support.

 

[thehypocrite]

What you're saying here only makes sense for like the 5-10 biggest worldwide sales third party games coming out of Japan, like Metal Gear Solid or Resident Evil.

What Sony also needs is the support of developers who appeal to the local market on the 200-600K level, but might not sell much outside of the region.

These are developers who's PS3 games often look like PS2 games, and thus the 3DS may also be a valid option for their series, so they need some kind of incentive to make them for the PS4.

Development cost isn't so much an issue since they're going to spend about the same amount of money regardless of the platform, but they will need some kind of incentive (either monetary or otherwise) to put the game on PS4 instead of an established platform like the 3DS or PS3.

You mean they need Namco Bandai domestic projects, Koei Tecmo, Konami, Gust, etc to put their smaller franchises in the PS4 as well as the WW blockbusters games.

 

[thehypocrite]

I think with vita tanking so hard and with no monhun ressurection on the horizon it will be difficult for them. The smaller japanese focused third parties that dont sell millions of copies will probably try to get to 3ds or wiiu development. Its up to nintendo really to encourage them or maybe even buy such studios for better software support.

Nintendo buying developers? Doubt it, Nintendo is the most insular gaming company, that's not how they roll.

 

[Nirolak]

You mean they need Namco Bandai domestic projects, Koei Tecmo, Konami, Gust, etc to put their smaller franchises in the PS4 as well as the WW blockbusters games.

Yeah, exactly.

 

[Chris1964]

I think with vita tanking so hard and with no monhun ressurection on the horizon it will be difficult for them. The smaller japanese focused third parties that dont sell millions of copies will probably try to get to 3ds or wiiu development. Its up to nintendo really to encourage them or maybe even buy such studios for better software support.

I try to understand how Wii U becomes preferable for smaller japanese focused third parties and why would someone skip Vita in favor of Wii U for this type of games if 3DS is not the first option.

 

[metalslimer]

Yeah with all the platforms out there why in the world would you make a wii u game? Or are people expecting wiiu to keep the ps3 alive and have ports with that?

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Nintendo buying developers? Doubt it, Nintendo is the most insular gaming company, that's not how they roll.

In the past several years Nintendo's worked directly with more Japanese 3rd party developers than Microsoft and Sony combined. Nearly twice as many in fact.

Nintendo's biggest advantage in Japan is that Microsoft and Sony don't seem to really give a shit about the region or it's development community.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

I don't think Sony needs to do much to atract third party games- with HD development costs Japanise companies need to go WW with their games and if they want to have any success globaly than Orbis/Durango is natural target for multiplatform releases with optional PC port - Wii U might be thrown into the bunch with inferior port if sales make such a thing profitable.

Both companies are in same place where they were at start of this gen - except this time Sony won't suffer from insane pricing and development hell that ps3 was in first years while Nintendo won't be selling even close to numbers Wii did in Japan.

Considering that most 3rd parties are currently tied up or just finishing with major PS3/360 titles, on top of how long it took them to actually get the hang of HD development, im not sure if we could really expect major 3rd party japanese titles released for ps4/720 soon. S-E is tied up with FF13-3, Versus, and DQX as well as their handheld teams just finishing up/finished projects. Dragons Dogma and RE6 used a significant amount of internal resources with MH4 still in development as well. I suppose Ono could be working SF5 and Slant Six working on something but its debatable that itd be ready soon as they finished projects not long ago. Then there's konami which is working on 3 metal gear solid projects for ps360.

I suppose Namco, atlus, gust, etc but these developers typically have titles that sell with a pre existing userbase not neccesarily system sellers.

 

[schuelma]

I suspect Japanese home console development for the next few years is going to consist largely of PS3-based games ported up/sideways to other systems.

 

[Chris1964]

I think Wii U's fate with third parties, like Vita, is already sealed before the system was even launched. Its sales just made their decision easier. Unless Nintendo or Sony decide to throw big amount ofs money to other publishers it will be very hard a single exclusive high profile game for either of the 2 platforms to exist.

 

[Kimawolf]

I think Wii U's fate with third parties, like Vita, is already sealed before the system was even launched. Its sales just made their decision easier. u

So what do you think Nintendo can do then? I am curious if there's anything they CAN do to turn things around or if its just a lost cause.

 

[Chris1964]

del.

 

[schuelma]

I think Wii U's fate with third parties, like Vita, is already sealed before the system was even launched. Its sales just made their decision easier. u

You could very well be right but this statement strikes me a bit premature.

 

[Chris1964]

So what do you think Nintendo can do then? I am curious if there's anything they CAN do to turn things around or if its just a lost cause.

The same they did with Wii, and I'm sure that's what they'll do.

 

[Nirolak]

I think Wii U's fate with third parties, like Vita, is already sealed before the system was even launched. Its sales just made their decision easier. Unless Nintendo or Sony decide to throw big amount ofs money to other publishers it will be very hard a single exclusive high profile game for either of the 2 platforms to exist.

You could very well be right but this statement strikes me a bit premature.

I think this is actually an interesting avenue to explore for both of them.

To start, what do you two feel are the core reasons that the Vita was in many ways sunk with third parties before it even launched?

 

[Thunder Monkey]

I think this is actually an interesting avenue to explore for both of them.

To start, what do you two feel are the core reasons that the Vita was in many ways sunk with third parties before it even launched?

My hypothesis is that the system was way too powerful (with a high bar to reach set by Sony's studios) to be just a handheld machine, and way too weak to be the console port machine.

A confluence of clusterfuck if you will.

 

[schuelma]

I think this is actually an interesting avenue to explore for both of them.

To start, what do you two feel are the core reasons that the Vita was in many ways sunk with third parties before it even launched?

I honestly am not sure. Based on the PSP's turnaround I thought Sony would be able to get more support than they did. I am guessing that Sony really hurt itself by launching a year after 3DS. I suspect Nintendo was very aggressive and had a lot of clout with third parties based on the DS and 3rd parties largely chose what they saw as more of a sure bet and a system that was going to be on the market sooner.

 

[thehypocrite]

In the past several years Nintendo's worked directly with more Japanese 3rd party developers than Microsoft and Sony combined. Nearly twice as many in fact.

Nintendo's biggest advantage in Japan is that Microsoft and Sony don't seem to really give a shit about the region or it's development community.

Do you mean with the Wii?

 

[FoneBone]

My hypothesis is that the system was way too powerful (with a high bar to reach set by Sony's studios) to be just a handheld machine, and way too weak to be the console port machine.

A confluence of clusterfuck if you will.

This, and also that they seemingly failed to consider that - in spite of a big gap in horsepower - they'd end up competing with Nintendo much more directly than they did last generation.

 

[farnham]

I try to understand how Wii U becomes preferable for smaller japanese focused third parties and why would someone skip Vita in favor of Wii U for this type of games if 3DS is not the first option.

Bigger userbase? Its unlikely that vita will be a big hit and sell similar numebers to what psp did. while wiiu will sell at least 5 million plus (thats abot what gc did) due to the first party offerings

I think Wii U's fate with third parties, like Vita, is already sealed before the system was even launched. Its sales just made their decision easier. Unless Nintendo or Sony decide to throw big amount ofs money to other publishers it will be very hard a single exclusive high profile game for either of the 2 platforms to exist.

Eh... We had one bad week with wiiu. Aside of that the numbers look okay. And there is dragon quest x comming soon which was a pretty successful mmorpg in japan.

I fail to see how the sales of wiiu made the decision not to develop games for it easier

 

[Kimawolf]

I think Nintendo just have to face the fact, they need to open up more development studios to help fill in the gaps, and maybe begin using the 3DS as leverage with 3rd parties to get some games.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Do you mean with the Wii?

With all platforms, both retail and digital.

 

[farnham]

Do you mean with the Wii?

Nintendo published third party developed games:
Excite truck
Excite bots
Disaster
Fatal frame 4
Fatalframe 2 remake
Last story
Another code R
Captain Rainbow
Tact of Magic
Pandoras Tower
Metroid other m
Battalion wars 2

 

[Thunder Monkey]

I think Nintendo just have to face the fact, they need to open up more development studios to help fill in the gaps, and maybe begin using the 3DS as leverage with 3rd parties to get some games.

They tried that in the GBA/Cube era.

It worked so well they sold about a million less Cubes than N64's.

 

[Soriku]

My hypothesis is that the system was way too powerful (with a high bar to reach set by Sony's studios) to be just a handheld machine, and way too weak to be the console port machine.

A confluence of clusterfuck if you will.

Maybe in the West, but most notable handheld games come from Japan, and I don't think Japan really cares as much about graphics considering the PSP has still been getting games that have sold well. I mean the Vita's two biggest games are a Miku game and P4G, an enhanced PS2 port.

I think it's more of an issue of people not wanting to move from their PSP yet (Vita doesn't have enough worthwhile games yet in Japan) and Nintendo dropping the MH bombshell and other developers make a lot of games for the 3DS. Also price.

With the Wii U, I think they can still turn things around. It just depends on what they have to show for it. I wouldn't be surprised if we have a Wii situation with most devs going to PS4/720 with how underpowered the Wii U is going to be in comparison and most devs also wanting to do (similar) multiplat releases (this is a bigger issue in the West, though is still an issue in Japan). A clear advantage the Wii U still has over the Vita are Nintendo IPs, and I think Nintendo will put in more effort in keeping the Wii U alive than Sony with the Vita. Again, it depends on what they have to show for it. I don't think Nintendo will want to screw up badly because if the Wii U is a real screw up then they're fucked for the next gens.

 

[test_account]

My hypothesis is that the system was way too powerful (with a high bar to reach set by Sony's studios) to be just a handheld machine, and way too weak to be the console port machine.

A confluence of clusterfuck if you will.

How can something be too powerful? This just means that it will be easier for developers. Unless you mean "too powerful = higher price".

This, and also that they seemingly failed to consider that - in spite of a big gap in horsepower - they'd end up competing with Nintendo much more directly than they did last generation.

How so?

 

[Thunder Monkey]

How can something be too powerful? This just means that it will be easier for developers. Unless you mean "too powerful = higher price".

Too powerful with too high a bar to reach as in "What we make on this budget of $500,000 wouldn't set itself apart or impress anyone on this platform."

 

[big youth]

I think the most reasonable thing Nintendo can hope for at this point is that the Wii U becomes somewhat popular with small to mid size developers in Japan. I don't fully understand it, but it seems Western developers are once again ignoring the Nintendo platform.

More of a pipedream, but I think whatever Retro is working on is going to be very focused on Western audiences, not unlike Halo. If this game can make a big splash and be a system seller maybe other Western devs will start including Wii U in their next gen multiplats. Something else along these lines, like an exclusive GTA could have a similar effect, though I doubt Nintendo would cough up this much money.

 

[farnham]

Maybe in the West, but most notable handheld games come from Japan, and I don't think Japan really cares as much about graphics considering the PSP has still been getting games that have sold well. I mean the Vita's two biggest games are a Miku game and P4G, an enhanced PS2 port.

I think it's more of an issue of people not wanting to move from their PSP yet (Vita doesn't have enough worthwhile games yet in Japan) and Nintendo dropping the MH bombshell and other developers make a lot of games for the 3DS. Also price.

With the Wii U, I think they can still turn things around. It just depends on what they have to show for it. I wouldn't be surprised if we have a Wii situation with most devs going to PS4/720 with how underpowered the Wii U is going to be in comparison and most devs also wanting to do (similar) multiplat releases (this is a bigger issue in the West, though is still an issue in Japan). A clear advantage the Wii U still has over the Vita are Nintendo IPs, and I think Nintendo will put in more effort in keeping the Wii U alive than Sony with the Vita. Again, it depends on what they have to show for it. I don't think Nintendo will want to screw up badly because if the Wii U is a real screw up then they're fucked for the next gens.

I dont think in terms of sales the japanese wiiu launch was a total disaster or anything. They are not doing fine this week and probably will do badly the next few weeks but once wario, wii fit and dragon quest hits they will do better

It took vita 1 year to sell 1 million

Wiiu already accomplished 70% of the figure in a little more than 1 month and people are acting like vita and wiiu are similar sales flops

 

[test_account]

Too powerful with too high a bar to reach as in "What we make on this budget of $500,000 wouldn't set itself apart or impress anyone on this platform."

Ah ok, like that. So far that doesnt seem to have been much of an issue though (looking at the japanese developed Vita games, not many of them seems to push the system a lot, from what i can remember to have seen at least).

 

[Chris1964]

Bigger userbase? Its unlikely that vita will be a big hit and sell similar numebers to what psp did. while wiiu will sell at least 5 million plus (thats abot what gc did) due to the first party offerings

Wii had a bigger userbase than PS3, that's why all small developers prefered it.

Eh... We had one bad week with wiiu. Aside of that the numbers look okay. And there is dragon quest x comming soon which was a pretty successful mmorpg in japan.

I fail to see how the sales of wiiu made the decision not to develop games for it easier

One bad week of sales for Wii U... OK

 

[farnham]

Wii had a bigger userbase than PS3, that's why all small developers prefered it.

id say there were a lot more devs on wii than on gamecube at least.
until monster hunter really sold a lot of psps wii did have healthy japanese third party support (fragile, no more heroes, tales of graces, monster hunter, oboro muramasa, shiren 3 to name a few)

One bad week of sales for Wii U... OK

I dont see how being the no.2 platform saleswise after launch is such a bad thing. Was the expectation by the people on sales gaf 1 million in one month?

 

[FoneBone]

How so?

Really? I'd think that would be pretty self-explanatory (Monster Hunter most of all).

 

[Lord_Byron28]

I think this is actually an interesting avenue to explore for both of them.

To start, what do you two feel are the core reasons that the Vita was in many ways sunk with third parties before it even launched?

While not addressed at me neccesarily ever since vitas big reveal I said it wouldnt do well. I said this because Sony doubled down on the same stupid strategy that got them into the initial disaster with PSP and PS3. Only difference being they lost a lot of confidence from 3rd parties and DS creamed it. On top of that no major system selling games were ever anounced.

With wii u they implemented the same strategy that they did with 3ds and I expect similar results, prior to price cut + MH, although consoles do worse than handhelds. I also didn't see 3DS quite as doomed even prior to the price cut + MH due to mk, ac, pokemon, nsmb all hitting the system inevitably much like wii u will have some system selling games that save it from being too bad. Although I have much less confidence in their ability to do a 3DS turn around simply because they don't have a pokemon/mh level title to do something drastic

 

[electroplankton]

Nintendo published third party developed games:
Excite truck
Excite bots
Disaster
Fatal frame 4
Fatalframe 2 remake
Last story
Another code R
Captain Rainbow
Tact of Magic
Pandoras Tower
Metroid other m
Battalion wars 2

At least half of those games are from first/second parties.

 

[Bruno MB]

I dont see how being the no.2 platform saleswise after launch is such a bad thing. Was the expectation by the people on sales gaf 1 million in one month?

Wii U in its second month is already sub-20k weekly sales, that's beyond critical.

Well, exactly 20.715 units sold, but next week will definitely be below that mark.

 

[thehypocrite]

Nintendo published third party developed games:
Excite truck
Excite bots
Disaster
Fatal frame 4
Fatalframe 2 remake
Last story
Another code R
Captain Rainbow
Tact of Magic
Pandoras Tower
Metroid other m
Battalion wars 2

Here's MSFT:

Grasshopper Manufacture – Diabolical Pitch, Sine Mora
Grounding Inc. – Crimson Dragon
Mistwalker – Lost Odyssey
NanaOn-Sha – Haunt
Q Entertainment – Ninety-Nine Nights series
Starfire Studios – Fusion: Genesis
tri-Ace – Infinite Undiscovery
Vector Unit – Hydro Thunder Hurricane

Here's Sony

Clap Hanz – Everybody's Golf series
Cellius – Ridge Racer Vita
Level-5 – White Knight Chronicles, Dark Cloud, Rogue Galaxy, Jeanne D'arc
Q-Games – PixelJunk series
Game Republic - Genji series, Folklore, Dark Mist, Toy Home

I tried to list only Japan game developers. None of them seem to be doing all that they could in the region.

 

[electroplankton]

Another thing that really makes the Wii U different from Vita is the one year advantage. One might say that if Nintendo will screw up everything, it won't be useful to be released before the other platforms; in fact, Nintendo will have a year to see what's working and what's not, and to prepare a counter-offensive for the holiday season.

 

[farnham]

At least half of those games are from first/second parties.

Monster games
Tecmo
Ganbarion
Mistwalker
Monolith (before being bought)
Cing
Skip
Kuju



I also forget zangeki no reginleiv (edf devs)

Here's MSFT:

Grasshopper Manufacture &#8211; Diabolical Pitch, Sine Mora
Grounding Inc. &#8211; Crimson Dragon
Mistwalker &#8211; Lost Odyssey
NanaOn-Sha &#8211; Haunt
Q Entertainment &#8211; Ninety-Nine Nights series
Starfire Studios &#8211; Fusion: Genesis
tri-Ace &#8211; Infinite Undiscovery
Vector Unit &#8211; Hydro Thunder Hurricane

Here's Sony

Clap Hanz &#8211; Everybody's Golf series
Cellius &#8211; Ridge Racer Vita
Level-5 &#8211; White Knight Chronicles, Dark Cloud, Rogue Galaxy, Jeanne D'arc
Q-Games &#8211; PixelJunk series
Game Republic - Genji series, Folklore, Dark Mist, Toy Home

I tried to list only Japan game developers. None of them seem to be doing all that they could in the region.

I never claimed ms or sony worked with no third party devs. I only listed some third party games published by nintendo on wii since the existence of such was denied. There are quite more actually (wiiware games like penguin park, the artstyle games and so on.)

And ridge racer vita was by cellius? Isnt that the ken kutaragi devs that supposedly we going to make extremely competent titles?

 

[schuelma]

Another thing that really makes the Wii U different from Vita is the one year advantage. One might say that if Nintendo will screw up everything, it won't be useful to be released before the other platforms; in fact, Nintendo will have a year to see what's working and what's not, and to prepare a counter-offensive for the holiday season.

Good point.

 

[test_account]

Really? I'd think that would be pretty self-explanatory (Monster Hunter most of all).

What you quoted was about hardware power, so i thought you ment regarding the designs of the machines (that was also the initial quote, that 3rd parties had decided on Vita and WiiU before they were released). But i dont see how the 3DS and Vita are competing more directly towards eachother compared to the DS and PSP. Both are, and were, heavy competitors. In the earlier years, the DS got most of the biggest title as well.