BishopLamont
Banned
and with that i bid you guys good night, its been fun and exhausting.
Breakout games can change a console's fortune drastically.
That list is just the natural cycle for consoles, all consoles eventually sell less and less, it doesn't mean its saturation, it just means you have to appeal to people that doesn't feel like your console warrants a purchase, saturation implies there's nothing more you can do to increase the appeal and sales, and thats rarely ever the case.
the xbone bombed spectacular, and its not gonna sell much through its lifetime, but does that mean its due to saturation? There's a huge difference between lack of appeal and saturation, lack of appeal can lead to saturation but saturation isn't always because of the lack of appeal.
for example, the more games the 3ds receives the faster it saturates, but at the same time its also increasing its appeal, so to that end, saturation isn't a big issue to the market leader, since it always has a bigger potential to increase appeal and decrease saturation through games, despite the fact that its capping out its potential buyers faster.
thats where the whole console sales momentum comes from, once you're in that dominant and safe spot, you're already selling well enough to offset any fear of saturation.
Vita is gonna sell what it sells, i doubt Sony expects it as much as they hope it becomes more popular, but barring a break out hit, the Vita will also see a decline next year and the lack of notable software is the biggest reason.
Yes but the potential market for the 3DS isn't 20m and the xbone's isn't 300k.How it's selling compared to its competitors has nothing to do with saturation.
Take the 3DS and the Xbone for example. Let's say the potential market for 3DS is ~20m. That means roughly 75% of potential owners already have one.
Let's say the potential market for the xbone is 300k. That means roughly 10% of potential owners have one.
The 3DS is clearly more saturated, even though it still handily outsells the xbone weekly.
Unless you want to argue that a 3 year-old system is less saturated than a system that launched 2 weeks ago?
2014 YTD: 1.503.894
2013 YTD: 2.813.463
2012 YTD: 3.245.499
2011 YTD: 1.835.442
Just look at the sales curve, it's not that hard to figure out.
Breakout games can change a console's fortune drastically.
That list is just the natural cycle for consoles, all consoles eventually sell less and less, it doesn't mean its saturation, it just means you have to appeal to people that doesn't feel like your console warrants a purchase, saturation implies there's nothing more you can do to increase the appeal and sales, and thats rarely ever the case.
the xbone bombed spectacular, and its not gonna sell much through its lifetime, but does that mean its due to saturation? There's a huge difference between lack of appeal and saturation, lack of appeal can lead to saturation but saturation isn't always because of the lack of appeal.
for example, the more games the 3ds receives the faster it saturates, but at the same time its also increasing its appeal, so to that end, saturation isn't a big issue to the market leader, since it always has a bigger potential to increase appeal and decrease saturation through games, despite the fact that its capping out its potential buyers faster.
thats where the whole console sales momentum comes from, once you're in that dominant and safe spot, you're already selling well enough to offset any fear of saturation.
I don't think its a bad thing, I just don't think its a big issue, at least not as big as other reasons concerning a consoles health and success.Nobody has said reaching saturation at 20 million devices sold is a bad thing. A bad thing would be reaching saturation when you have sold really few units. If next year we see a similar decline on Vita HW it won't be as good because it means it hasn't been able to become a mainstream machine as Sony initially expected, due to various reasons we already know.
Nintendo can stay for 1 or 2 years with declining hardware sales as long as the software sales remain healthy. They just need to pay attention to software trends in order to launch its successor before nobody gives a shit about the 3DS. Brand recognition, momentum and those things are important too.
Vita is gonna sell what it sells, i doubt Sony expects it as much as they hope it becomes more popular, but barring a break out hit, the Vita will also see a decline next year and the lack of notable software is the biggest reason.