Media Create Sales: Week 52, 2010 (Dec 27 - Jan 2)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Nor can we forget that the biggest hits are seldom, if ever predicted. Pokemon, Dragon Quest and now Monster Hunter are the only surefire hits (although I'm still not quite convinced that MH is immune from the classic Capcom sequel nosedive), but outside of that, it's hard to tell what will be big. I think trying to predict that is fruitless, too.
Chris1964 said:
How can we say that before the device launched ? Maybe AR games will be the next big hit in generel ( i dont think so). The 3DS doesnt even need it Brain Training now, it will sell the first months just because of those exsisting bigger ips - once sales slow down im pretty sure there will be a solution.
btw. Iwata about software supply on 3DS (Nikkei)
http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2011/01/10/iwata_nikkei_interview/
LiquidMetal14
hide your water-based mammals
I think the lineup is very weak but it's not that badJonnyram said:So 3DS is the worst portable launch line-up since Virtual Boy?
Chris1964 said:
And 3DS is a whole new beast with a premium price. Nintendogs and Layton won't sell as good as the ds games unless the mass market is okay paying that price.
But considering the genious expertise that Nintendo has developed marketing mass market games in the last years and that seemingly there won't even be an announced competitor when the 3DS launches I wouldn't bet against their success.
Souldriver
Member
I dunno. My gut tells me that to reach that audience you have to find something new every time. The audience isn't into gaming normally, so to keep them interested you have to keep things fresh, instead of relying on a established franchises. I wouldn't be surprised if the software that is a hit in all demographics won't be Brain Age, but a completely new game that makes perfect use of the strengths of the 3DS*.cw_sasuke said:
*Problem is that 3D doesn't really offer a lot of new ways to play unlike the touch screen did for the DS. But perhaps we'll get surprised. I liked that fake "zomg 3DS footage" video with the game that makes clever use of the camera of the DSi to create "3D". I would never have thought the camera could be used for such awesome things. Perhaps the 3DS will bring the same kind of creativity in software, and maybe the surprise software that expands the audience will come from that direction instead of Brain Age or Animal Crossing and the likes.
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
3DS is going to do very well, but you still have to keep current market trends in mind.
I don't think it'll affect system unit sales, but every focus group I've seen has still shown iPod Touch as the #1 requested/gamed on device for the younger segments (11-16, millennial) and with Android starting to make gaming strides, I think you'll start seeing a larger division for software.
3DS may start to see a more 'Nintendo-console' like sales division with Nintendo titles and franchised titles doing really well but lesser known or third party ports may start to suffer. Hard to say and hear, but with prices of 3DS software/hardware going up, and quality of cheap competitive titles increasing, you can't completely ignore stated purchase intent and expect a sustained, booming market out the door for everyone.
Anecdote time! My 12 year old cousin who is one of the biggest gamers I know hasn't even heard of the 3DS yet. Him and all his friends play iOS games at school/bus, and then he's always on Xbox after school. Granted him and his friends don't spend a lot of time on the internet, but NoA better start some broader messaging for 3DS soon.
I don't think it'll affect system unit sales, but every focus group I've seen has still shown iPod Touch as the #1 requested/gamed on device for the younger segments (11-16, millennial) and with Android starting to make gaming strides, I think you'll start seeing a larger division for software.
3DS may start to see a more 'Nintendo-console' like sales division with Nintendo titles and franchised titles doing really well but lesser known or third party ports may start to suffer. Hard to say and hear, but with prices of 3DS software/hardware going up, and quality of cheap competitive titles increasing, you can't completely ignore stated purchase intent and expect a sustained, booming market out the door for everyone.
Anecdote time! My 12 year old cousin who is one of the biggest gamers I know hasn't even heard of the 3DS yet. Him and all his friends play iOS games at school/bus, and then he's always on Xbox after school. Granted him and his friends don't spend a lot of time on the internet, but NoA better start some broader messaging for 3DS soon.
duckroll said:
Even if those are declining franchises this doesnt mean they arent big or irrelevant....you dont really get bigger 3rd party releases at a system launch, maybe its just me from a sales perspective the lineup seems just fine.
A Mario Plattformer or OoT 3D at launch would have been awesome - but still. Its just fine, as long as they keep releasin new games week for week. I would buy SSF4 3D and Layton if i lived in Japan.
cw_sasuke said:
There is only one declining franchise though. The rest are definitely not big or relevant in Japan. Layton and Nintendogs are honestly the only games which have any hope of selling more than 200k LTD out of all the launch titles. Both should do way more than 200k of course, but the point is that the majority of the line-up is pretty weak because they're all lower selling third party software from has-been franchises. There is only ONE Nintendo game available at launch.
I don't think it's the worst launch ever, but it's definitely a launch which will be driven by the brand of the hardware instead of a great launch line up, because there isn't one.
Kenka said:
:lol :lol :lol
Okay, stop taking the funny pills. Please.
_Alkaline_
Member
GCX said:
The one and only.
m.i.s.
Banned
Souldriver said:
Gameboy had Tetris and DS Brain Training that really captured the imagination of the masses. Gameboy and DS also had mass market prices from launch. Not only does 3DS veer from that but it also has, for the first time ever in a Nintendo handheld, an analogue slider in the primary control position. The D-pad is in the same awkward position on the 3DS that the analog nub is on the PSP. To me this looks like the strategy seems to have shifted to console games on the go - probably because that's what 3rd parties want.
I forsee choppy waters ahead.
_Alkaline_
Member
cvxfreak said:
GB had Super Mario Land. Can't remember if Tetris was a Japanese launch title or not.
duckroll said:So you're saying that the 3DS is going to flop like the GC? That's a shocking statement!
Layton, nintendogs and even Samurai Warriors are a little bit more significant than Wave Race and Super Monkey Ball.
You said above that the launch will be driven by the brand of the hardware. It will also be driven by the brand of the titles accompanying it. In terms of familiar IP content that casual gamers should be able to identify with, the 3DS is the best launch...ever? It's not like asking someone to buy a PS3 for Resistance and Genji.
Nuclear Muffin
Banned
The 3DS has a very solid launch lineup, easily the best handheld launch lineup since the original GB.
Do not underestimate the power of adorable dogs jumping out of the screen to lick your face when you move up to it.
Do not underestimate the power of adorable dogs jumping out of the screen to lick your face when you move up to it.
Father_Brain
Banned
Does the apparent lack of crowds at Nintendo World reflect a general lack of hype for 3DS in Japan? That's one thing I'm concerned about.
duckroll said:
Except ducks, right?
Funny enough, I saw a lot of people walking their dogs outside Makuhari Messe on two of the days. Maybe they want cats too, so they'll buy nintendogs+cats? :lol
Father Brain said:
I believe there will be Nintendo events in Nagoya and Osaka after this, so Nintendo has time to spread out the hype. Nintendo couldn't have been expecting a hell of a whole lot of people to show up though, since they only rented out one hall at Makuhari that's considerably smaller than a single hall where TGS usually takes place. Nintendo did have line barriers set up on the upper floor of the hall in case it got too crowded, but it didn't seem necessary at all. Nintendo held a small scale event overall and I expect the hype to build.
Ruud_Luiten
Member
this.Nuclear Muffin said:
LiquidMetal14
hide your water-based mammals
Solid is an overstatement. I love me Nintendo handhelds but ports and lower tier launch games do not appeal as much to me. Of course it's nice filler but it ain't killer by a long stretch. Much like the PSP, I bought it for RR initially but bought 9 games which were like ports or filler. Lumines and Mercury were the most compelling launch games to me. This is the same situation except I'm not going out to buy 9 games just to try the 3d gimmick. 1 game is all I'm looking at, that's not good. I don't even want to impulse buy anything else.
And not to downplay the thing but the premise of 3d gaming on the go is a big draw since it's fairly new for this kind of mainstream gaming machine.
And not to downplay the thing but the premise of 3d gaming on the go is a big draw since it's fairly new for this kind of mainstream gaming machine.
BishopLamont
Banned
Bad childhood with dogs...uh, animals??duckroll said:
Graphics Horse
Member
duckroll said:
Besides anything else, that's terrible table manners.
edit: seems I'm reading backwards today.
BishopLamont said:
I dunno, I don't think so. When I was much younger I had a parrot at one time, and a turtle at another time. Didn't really think much of them when they died. I just don't really find myself interested in animals much, don't like the zoo. I enjoy watching nature documentaries though, but I don't really have any interest in maintaining an animal as a pet, nor do I feel any connection to them.
BishopLamont
Banned
I've never owned a duck or a parrot, but I think the bond you can get with a dog or a cat is much different than those animals. You can't cuddle and play with them like you normally could with a dog or cat. Oh what the hell, just buy Nintendogs +cats and see how you like it. :lolduckroll said:
JoshuaJSlone
Member
I looked for third party Japanese launch games that ended up selling at least a couple hundred thousand within this century. GCN, DS, and Wii had none. GBA had these two, though I don't know how high profile I'd call them: Mega Man Battle Network and Power Pro Pocket 3.GCX said:
EDIT: FWIW, non-Nintendo third party launch games of this century that ended up selling at least a couple hundred thousand:
PS2 Kessen
PS2 Ridge Racer V
PSP Ridge Racers
BishopLamont
Banned
Wow the launch line up is so weak, I didn't expect OOT or Paper Mario but no Kid Icarus? No Pilot wings? No Steel Diver? The hell is Nintendo doing?
N3DS Zelda no Densetsu Yume wo Miru Shima DX
What game is this?
N3DS Zelda no Densetsu Yume wo Miru Shima DX
What game is this?
BishopLamont
Banned
Ah VC, nvm. I'd rather take a Link's awakening remake than a OOT remake.
BishopLamont said:
I wouldn't. Link's Awakening is one of the best Zelda games, and it's certainly my favorite. I don't think remaking it would add anything to the game, and it might result in an inferior version in 3D especially. At least with OoT, it retains pretty much everything that it was since it was 3D to begin with.
BishopLamont
Banned
I'm one of those people who can't stand an aged game, the only way you get me to is if you remake the game, I usually prefer remakes over their originals since it takes alot to screw up the experience for me. I don't even want a "3D" remake, just a remake period.duckroll said: