What about Mario Maker?
I think it's the portability x factor. There's a lot of consoles games that have really successful handheld re-releases.
Tabletop multiplayer might actually be popular(with kids) too.
Its not a new MK though so it will be comparatively muted.
Yes you're right, I kinda forgot about Mario Maker 3DS. If Nintendo focuses on the portability it might do decently.