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Microsoft Could Ship 3M Xbox 2 Units In Dec. Quarter
- Thread starter pcostabel
- Start date
Gek54 said:
Right. I'd expect the same for PS3 (or less if they really feel some burn from MS..though they'd likely sell their initial shipments at $300 anyway).
human5892 said:
This is absolutely true. I worked in retail for some time, and believe it or not, people walk into stores looking for a PS2 without having any great attachment to the games themselves, but just because PS2 is the one everyone else has etc. and they were very easily converted to Xbox sales (it was store policy to push Xbox - don't ask me why). The strongest point that swayed people was the power point...in fact it was pretty much the only point that we used to sway people. Even if they couldn't see it themselves, when we emphasised the point they figured it was better to go for it because it was more powerful. This wasn't the case for all or most people, obviously - most did have their heart set on PS2 and there was little persuading them - but a significant number of fence-sitters bought Xbox because of power edge we pushed.
Blimblim said:
BlimBlim is right.
If you also take into account the fact that 90% of gamers won't have an HDTV to play these games on until after 2007, you can pretty rightly assert that it's entirely unlikely that any of the three next major consoles will look any different at all in 480i/p.
I mean, there are only so many things you can paint in a 640 by 480 window, and all of these consoles will be plenty powerful enough to do whatever they want in that space.
If you're a casual, or if you're hardcore playing on anything less than home theater-grade equipment, odds are you won't be able to tell which console is producing which image (unless certain effect quirks pop up and begin to be recognized like they have a bit this gen).
The next war will be won on content, which is why there's reason to be concerned if you're Sony/Nintendo and you suddenly see all these mainstay Japanese developers splooging over Xbox2. If they somehow swung T2 into getting GTA and SE into getting Final Fantasy, then they'll be sitting pretty come 5 years from now.
Outdoor Miner
Member
Blimblim said:
Congrats, you've nailed it with your post. Methinks people are going to be surprised at how little difference there's going to be next-gen between the big 3 systems, especially given how certain people seem to be of the mindset that power is what'll play a huge factor or even matter the most.
DeEJaYMiND
Member
WordofGod said:
The usual... make good games and MONEY
The End said:
I expect hardware sales to be much closer next generation exclusives will probably determine the winner though, has Sony cemented good enough relationships? Has MS's catering to developers needs for the new generation swayed them?
Guess it's time to watch the battle start again....
DarienA said:
I agree completely. I'm all down for new consoles, but I just feel like the ones we have now aren't crusty and decrepid yet, like they were last gen.
Between N64's muddiness and PS1's jaggies, I was more than ready to hop on board the "next-gen" train.
Now it's not that I'm saying that the graphics in today's games are absolutely the best-looking they could be, but games like RE:4 and God of War just have a very crisp clean look that don't beg to be replaced by something better.
I felt the same way about handheld games until I opened my PSP. I felt like I was holding an alien space rock that had come to work fifteen years before man could have possibly invented it. I wouldn't be shocked if the same thing happened with XB2 this Fall. The trick will be convincing people they need to buy it.
And I know you're a Sony guy, but I really think this makes a case for Revolution's existence in the market. Graphics alone isn't going to sell me an Xbox 2 at launch day, I'm sure I'll be waiting for a killer app (it'll be the first launch I ever miss for that reason).
Juice said:
I may be a "Sony guy" but I go where the content I want is.. hell I bought a GC JUST so that I could finally play Skies of Arcadia Legend... and one of these days... I'll actually get around to actually playing it... I think...
The End said:
How so?
Outdoor Miner
Member
Does anyone have an ETA on when GAF will get back it's rollseye emoticon?
Yeah I agree. Especially with the way this year is going games-wise. We'd probably be looking at another 2 or more years of this gen if things werent the way they were.DarienA said:
But I think all those thoughts start to go out the window come may 12. If it doesnt, MS is in trouble
.sonycowboy
Member
Blimblim said:
Casuals CAN notice the differenct, the issue is they didn't really care. Which, really, really burns alot of Xbox fans up. Sony will have to face the same thing next generation.
I agree that content will be the king, but despite the fact that you know all kinds of secrets, I'd have to believe that Sony has the advantage as the content leader again next generation.
95% Japanese support, 95% US Support, 95% European support is what Sony had this generation. I'm sure that Microsoft is going to sign many, many more exclusives this generation than last, becase THEY HAVE TO. If we were to have a repeat content wise of this generation and Sony having the "power edge", Microsoft would be dead as disco.
Microsoft already has reportedly very good hardware and very good developer/publisher relations. What they need to make a dent with Sony is to capture the "mindshare" of the average consumer. To date, they still haven't done this this generation and I think we can see from all of the marketing plans next generation ( MTV, Pepsi, and so forth), that this could easily be the most important area that Microsoft plans to address.
The End said:
There's a little bit of a buzz around X360 right now, there's always a lot of fresh hope surrounding new systems, especially when a company seems to be starting on the right foot. It's been true of most new systems from the big companies. Doesn't mean anyone is underestimating any other company, though
DarienA said:
I was just going to make the argument that for me the last generation ended when I bought the last new-at-the-time title for it, which in my case was Conker. So I go to Nintendo's site to look up Conker's release date and it's not listed! I just searched for it numerous different ways including displaying the entire Nintendo 64 catalog and nothing. I can find every other game I think of, but not Conker! It really is "like father, like son!" Buncha bitter, reality-avoiding bastards from Reggie on down! :lol :lol :lol :lol
Anyway, what was my point? I don't remember. This was way too funny.
FeedMeAStrayCat
Member
If Microsoft could pull off a $250 launch of the Xbox2 and have the hard drive either included or as a relatively cheap add-on, that has the potential to be huge.
Heh, the only way the Revolution is going to be huge is if Nintendo secures for launch: an exclusive GTA game, an exclusive year of Madden, Mario, Smash Bros., Zelda, etc. Which obviously isn't going to happen. But if it did.. Nintendo MIGHT have a damn good year afterwards.
Heh, the only way the Revolution is going to be huge is if Nintendo secures for launch: an exclusive GTA game, an exclusive year of Madden, Mario, Smash Bros., Zelda, etc. Which obviously isn't going to happen. But if it did.. Nintendo MIGHT have a damn good year afterwards.
No Microsoft should stick with the $299 price point. It is the standard for consoles and without any competition there is no need to be too aggressive on that front. The Xenon will live or die based on the hype and the games, price won't be a factor. Of course when Sony and Nintendo begin to release their consoles well, then a cut to $199 would go down very well. With super aggressive pricing, strong hype(maybe even a Halo 3 launch) and lots of sotware Microsoft could stand a very good chance to turn Sony over.
Of course releasing first will put them at a power disadvantage. Especially if both Nintendo and Sony release more powerful systems. It was ok for Sony since they were the market leader, but MS are closer to Sega than Sony in that respect. Being the weakest of 3 systems is not a good position to be in so the first year will be crucial for them to stand a chance.
Of course releasing first will put them at a power disadvantage. Especially if both Nintendo and Sony release more powerful systems. It was ok for Sony since they were the market leader, but MS are closer to Sega than Sony in that respect. Being the weakest of 3 systems is not a good position to be in so the first year will be crucial for them to stand a chance.
So MS launch early and at best get a 6 million lead by the time PS3/Revolution come out. That's a small number of consoles in the long run and I dont think a big enough lead to stay ahead of the competition.
All my friends are casual gamers. They own PS2's. They dont buy consoles at launch. These kinds of gamers make up the vast majority and will no doubt be buying PS3's. I hope MS and Nintendo both do better next time out but realistically they will still be lagging behind.
All my friends are casual gamers. They own PS2's. They dont buy consoles at launch. These kinds of gamers make up the vast majority and will no doubt be buying PS3's. I hope MS and Nintendo both do better next time out but realistically they will still be lagging behind.
For X2 the best scenario is launch at $249 with a $79.99 HD add on for those of us who want mass storage immediately. Just in time for PS3 launch you have some weapons ready.
#1 A price drop to $199 to undercut Sony and be $100 cheaper assuming PS3 launches at $299.
#2 A triple threat of awesome titles at PS3 launch. More than likely Halo 3, Grand Theft Auto, and Ninja Gaiden or the next Splinter Cell.
#3 Some type of JRPG to combat a guaranteed Final Fantasy title to be launched with PS3.
#1 A price drop to $199 to undercut Sony and be $100 cheaper assuming PS3 launches at $299.
#2 A triple threat of awesome titles at PS3 launch. More than likely Halo 3, Grand Theft Auto, and Ninja Gaiden or the next Splinter Cell.
#3 Some type of JRPG to combat a guaranteed Final Fantasy title to be launched with PS3.
Huh? I must have missed where Square guaranteed an FF title for PS3 launch.JayFro said:
...And even if they said that, I wouldn't necessarily believe it... remember when PS2 launched and everyone was taking reservations for FF 10-13, like they were expected to all come out within the first year after PS3 hit? The first of those didn't even come out until more than a year after launch.
Lord Error
Insane For Sony
I understand what you are saying, but that's simply not true in general. Look at some of the best CGI done today in movies and games (LOTR Gollum and fight scenes, Oni3 intro, WoW intro, Tekken 5 intro) and then look at whatever realtime there is to look at (including the Unreal 3, etc) There's still a huge difference in quality there, even though they are presented in the same 640x480 resolution.
sonycowboy
Member
shpankey said:
That's where selling 100M+ units and handling the manufacturing in-house wins it for you.
What costs lots of money year 1 gets ALOT more affordable once you go through design efficiency, smaller chips, scales of economy.
Lose alot of money year 1 (10M units) software can't make it up
Lost less money year 2 (20M units) software saves you from losses
Break-even or make a little money year 3 (20M units) software makes you lots of money
Make good money year 4 (15-17M units) ,etc,etc
While true, I tend to think that's a pretty risky strategy. One PlayStation misfire could potentially sink Sony as a whole... I'm curious how the company's going to move with a new board and president in place.sonycowboy said:That's where selling 100M+ units and handling the manufacturing in-house wins it for you.
What costs lots of money year 1 gets ALOT more affordable once you go through design efficiency, smaller chips, scales of economy.
Lose alot of money year 1 (10M units) software can't make it up
Lost less money year 2 (20M units) software saves you from losses
Break-even or make a little money year 3 (20M units) software makes you lots of money
Make good money year 4 (15-17M units) ,etc,etc
sonycowboy
Member
jarrod said:
I agree and I made a thread about how Sony bets the farm each time out. With Microsoft swimming in the same waters, they really don't have a choice. They simply can't give ground and expect to hold Microsoft back. And I'm slightly surprised that Microsoft hasn't pressed the issue a bit more. Sony has a lot less to bleed that Microsoft does.
Of course, Microsoft can afford to wait. Even if they don't win this generation, they will still be in this game for the next 20 years. And eventually, they know they will win. So why bleed now, when the result will be the same eventually.
It's very tough to have Microsoft as a competitor. You know that they're not going anywhere and will be on your butt forever.
sonycowboy said:
You think? If we got into a little rut with Xbox at x% marketshare and Sony at a significantly greater y% marketshare over multiple generations, do you think MS would persue things as vigorously as they currently are? I'm not so sure. It's not like MS doggedly sticks to every venture they've ever started..
That said, I think Xbox will be successful enough for them over the next couple of generations for them to continue with it. But I don't think it's inevitable that they'll dominate the market.
Besides, Sony could wave it all away, anyway, by agreeing to put windows on Playstation
sonycowboy
Member
gofreak said:Besides, Sony could wave it all away, anyway, by agreeing to put windows on Playstation
I don't think that's completely out of the realm of possibility. Sony probably wishes they did that with the PS2. Imagine if they paid Microsoft $20 for each copy of Windows * 100M system, that would still only be $2 billion. When next gen is over, that might seem like a gift.
<Anyone know what the per seat license is approximately for embedded Windows CE? Can't even be close to $20 is it? Especially, with the volume the PS2 does.>
Does anyone think there will be systems sold outside of bundles for the launch of any of these next-gen consoles? I didn't buy any of this generations consoles on release day, though as soon as the bundles became non-mandatory, or there was enough stock at the non-specialty stores I picked mine up.
Xbox (insert sequel name here) launching at $250 would be an awesome movie.... because sure MS could eat the losses without breaking a sweat.
Has there been any conjecture(though I'd imagine we won't here about that til after system launch) from MS about the # of units necessary to break even on the unit? IIRC they said a bit back the original Xbox will never itself turn a profit?
Has there been any conjecture(though I'd imagine we won't here about that til after system launch) from MS about the # of units necessary to break even on the unit? IIRC they said a bit back the original Xbox will never itself turn a profit?
One other thing to note is that using this gen's must have games to predict next year's must have games isn't foolproof. Series can lose their luster. After all Halo and GTA are this gen's powerhouses and they weren't around for the N64/PSX. Mario/Zelda lost their million seller mystique in the transition to the gamecube, and there was no FFVII style smash hit for the PS2 Final Fantasies.
I'm not saying that WILL happen to the next gen Halo and GTA but it's something to keep in mind.
As ALWAYS the one with the content and the image will win. MS hasn't put a step wrong in North America in regards to image so far, and they're keeping their content tightly under wraps. Sony hasn't started making their PS3 image moves yet and are keeping their content hidden as well. Interesting Times.
I'm not saying that WILL happen to the next gen Halo and GTA but it's something to keep in mind.
As ALWAYS the one with the content and the image will win. MS hasn't put a step wrong in North America in regards to image so far, and they're keeping their content tightly under wraps. Sony hasn't started making their PS3 image moves yet and are keeping their content hidden as well. Interesting Times.
Azih said:
I think it's at least fair to say that the same is true for Sony, and the Playstation brand is still larger..
I totally agree about franchises though, in terms of popularity. The rise of GTA this gen. The fall of Resident Evil etc. etc. It'll be interesting to see how things shake out next gen.
I've seen a few people mention BR as being a big factor in PS3 price. But how big of a factor will it really be?
BR players cost an arm and a leg b/c it's a new technology, not necessarily the optical drivr itself. I mean, you're paying for mostly logic with those BR players. The actual physical drive costs should just be the laser itself. That can't be ridiculously expensive, especially in the major volumes we'll be seeing for the PS3.
Now the logic should all be contained on the NVidia "media processor" or on the IOP. The PS3 doesn't have to encode anything since it has no write capability, so the controller logic is gonna be pretty cheap IMO. The NVidia chip should hopefully have the decoding HW for BRD movies. I think the BR drive should be a rapidly decreasing cost for the PS3. Then again, I don't know how much the cost of the DVD added for the PS2.
For the XB360, it would have been a pain getting the HD-DVD drives since MS wouldn't own the plants. I think a $300 price is fine. If the PS3 is sufficiently far enough away, I'd probably plunk down that much for the system this Fall. It lives and dies with developer suppoer. The DC's support was always hollow. Sega tried, but the deals were always tentative. MS needs long-term deals. And with strong titles. If Squeenix is on-board with some exclusive, quality titles (a new FF or Vagrant Story would be earth-shattering IMO), then they will have a legit shot at Japan. But if it's like the GC deal, then forget it. PEACE.
BR players cost an arm and a leg b/c it's a new technology, not necessarily the optical drivr itself. I mean, you're paying for mostly logic with those BR players. The actual physical drive costs should just be the laser itself. That can't be ridiculously expensive, especially in the major volumes we'll be seeing for the PS3.
Now the logic should all be contained on the NVidia "media processor" or on the IOP. The PS3 doesn't have to encode anything since it has no write capability, so the controller logic is gonna be pretty cheap IMO. The NVidia chip should hopefully have the decoding HW for BRD movies. I think the BR drive should be a rapidly decreasing cost for the PS3. Then again, I don't know how much the cost of the DVD added for the PS2.
For the XB360, it would have been a pain getting the HD-DVD drives since MS wouldn't own the plants. I think a $300 price is fine. If the PS3 is sufficiently far enough away, I'd probably plunk down that much for the system this Fall. It lives and dies with developer suppoer. The DC's support was always hollow. Sega tried, but the deals were always tentative. MS needs long-term deals. And with strong titles. If Squeenix is on-board with some exclusive, quality titles (a new FF or Vagrant Story would be earth-shattering IMO), then they will have a legit shot at Japan. But if it's like the GC deal, then forget it. PEACE.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
I have a hard time seeing Microsoft launching this thing at $249. I also have a hard time seeing it launch for more than $299. I think it has been proven over the long term, and from ten years retail experience, that a price about $299 and your console has a death wish. Hell, at $249 the PSP is having trouble moving. It has sold well so far, but not at the level that most were expecting.
However, if MS does launch at a price of $249, that would be a nice big middle finger to Sony in the looming console war. A way to force Sony's hand. But if they launch at a lower price, that could signify to the consumer that it is a substandard product. Look at how the price of Dreamcast affected it. When that launched at a great price most people I talked to at work scoffed saying "Its cheaper because it isnt as good" and other stoopid stuff like that.
I guess we will all know more come May 12th.
However, if MS does launch at a price of $249, that would be a nice big middle finger to Sony in the looming console war. A way to force Sony's hand. But if they launch at a lower price, that could signify to the consumer that it is a substandard product. Look at how the price of Dreamcast affected it. When that launched at a great price most people I talked to at work scoffed saying "Its cheaper because it isnt as good" and other stoopid stuff like that.
I guess we will all know more come May 12th.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Mooreberg said:
I agree with that. Launch at the high price point, get a feel for the console being the big thing, then drop your price to kill the new consoles, and also launch a lot of high profile games. If the rumors of Halo 3 launching at ps3 time are true, couple that with a price drop and that is not a declaration of war, its a nuclear attack.
Things are going to get interesting this console war coming up. I just want a close race this time, like the good old SNES/Genesis days.
={<SMOKE>}=
Member
microsoft is going to end up dethroning sony, you watch. maybe not by the end of the xbox360/ps3 gen, but by the end of the following one, it's microsoft's game. the western market is huge and the xbox catalog is going to continue to cater to western gamers. the average consumer doesnt' give a shit about the metal gear franchise or the final fantasy games... the japanese franchises that cemented the playstation as THE game machine are going to become less and less relevant here in the west and microsoft is going to give americans more of what they want.
Luscious LeftFoot
Member
^^^ I think it's almost a given the MS with eventually unseat Sony. But you talk as if it's impossible for Sony (or Nintendo) to cater to "western" tastes or garner support for developers.
Xbox 2 might launch above 299.
who knows?
You can't really pin it right now because of the technology. PS3 as well. They are both extremely powerful machines for their launch period. Above and beyond what they were at during the last console launches.
Pricing info will probably show up at E3 so we're not far away from knowing.
who knows?
You can't really pin it right now because of the technology. PS3 as well. They are both extremely powerful machines for their launch period. Above and beyond what they were at during the last console launches.
Pricing info will probably show up at E3 so we're not far away from knowing.