Frozenprince
Banned
Alright gents, you ready? Here we Go!
Probable Start Times
Wild Card Play-in games:
When: October 6th, 8PM
Who: Houston Astros @ New York Yankees
Where: ESPN, MLB.tv blackouts apply
Probable starters: Dallas Keuchel/Masahiro Tanaka
Lineups:
Synopsis: Both teams come into the playoffs dragging and scrapping themselves across the finish line. Both lost large divisional leads over the course of the final two months, both struggled with sub-par starting pitching down the stretch and both had trouble getting on base. The Astro's are probably healthier at this point and have the best positional depth, Chris Carter is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now after five months of futility beforehand, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa are all-star level players with questions defensively but probably the best pure bats in the series. The real difference maker here is if George Springer can make plus contact and use Yankee Stadium to his benefit, a pure hitters ballpark should play well for his ability to pull the ball to left center. Where the real difference maker will rest is their beleagered BP, which has blown several leads late and every attempt to patch it having failed. Stalwart CP Luke Gregerson the lone brightspot for the majority of the year.
On the opposite end of that spectrum you have a team with arguably the best and deepest BP in the majors this year, built with tall, lanky power arms designed to overpower opposing hitters before they get their timing down. The line-up construction of the Yankees is built around it's lead-off hitters in Ells and Gardner, if either struggle, the offense doesn't click and begins to revolve around the power bat. Rookie slugger Greg Bird (que the gif) has been a revelation at first. With exceptional power (especially at home) and a passable glove. His ability with the bat projects to be the difference maker for the Yankees.
Ultimately, this will be a battle of starting pitching, with Keuchel in the running for the CY and Tanaka finishing strong down the stretch. Tanaka has struggled with keeping the ball down and his HR totals have shot up as a result, his splitter is still the most devastating K pitch in baseball when it's on. Keuchel doesn't have overpowering stuff, but gets by using exceptional command and control, it's not smoke and mirrors though, he's a legitimate ace.
MLBGAF's opinions on the game:
Start times while I make this prettier.
Probable Start Times
Wild Card Play-in games:
When: October 6th, 8PM
Who: Houston Astros @ New York Yankees
Where: ESPN, MLB.tv blackouts apply
Probable starters: Dallas Keuchel/Masahiro Tanaka
Lineups:
Synopsis: Both teams come into the playoffs dragging and scrapping themselves across the finish line. Both lost large divisional leads over the course of the final two months, both struggled with sub-par starting pitching down the stretch and both had trouble getting on base. The Astro's are probably healthier at this point and have the best positional depth, Chris Carter is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now after five months of futility beforehand, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa are all-star level players with questions defensively but probably the best pure bats in the series. The real difference maker here is if George Springer can make plus contact and use Yankee Stadium to his benefit, a pure hitters ballpark should play well for his ability to pull the ball to left center. Where the real difference maker will rest is their beleagered BP, which has blown several leads late and every attempt to patch it having failed. Stalwart CP Luke Gregerson the lone brightspot for the majority of the year.
On the opposite end of that spectrum you have a team with arguably the best and deepest BP in the majors this year, built with tall, lanky power arms designed to overpower opposing hitters before they get their timing down. The line-up construction of the Yankees is built around it's lead-off hitters in Ells and Gardner, if either struggle, the offense doesn't click and begins to revolve around the power bat. Rookie slugger Greg Bird (que the gif) has been a revelation at first. With exceptional power (especially at home) and a passable glove. His ability with the bat projects to be the difference maker for the Yankees.
Ultimately, this will be a battle of starting pitching, with Keuchel in the running for the CY and Tanaka finishing strong down the stretch. Tanaka has struggled with keeping the ball down and his HR totals have shot up as a result, his splitter is still the most devastating K pitch in baseball when it's on. Keuchel doesn't have overpowering stuff, but gets by using exceptional command and control, it's not smoke and mirrors though, he's a legitimate ace.
MLBGAF's opinions on the game:
Personally, I believe the Yankees will struggle to put up runs against Keuchel. Potential Cy young winner and he's looked very sharp against the Yankees in the past (small sample size though). Of course, it's his first time pitching in the postseason so who knows what to expect. Tanaka on the other hand has not looked good against the Astros (again, small sample size) and you never know if he's going to show up healthy or with something nagging at his arm. I also believe the homerun happy atmosphere of Yankee stadium will greatly bolster Houston's home run total.
The Yankees have a puncher's chance to make it into the next round vs the Royals in the ALDS; to do so, they'll have to:
1. Work Dallas Keuchel
Keuchel is a lefty that has dominant stuff when it's low; when he's on (which he has been for much of this season), you'll be haplessly beating balls into the dirt when you aren't swinging and missing. Their best chance of beating him is making him throw pitches and challenging him to go deep into the game on short rest. He's thrown the most IP of his career, this is his first and biggest start yet - can the Yankees get him out of the game in 6 innings?
2. Tanaka has to have his ace stuff Tuesday
Tanaka is likely not getting high run support - he's going to need to have his best stuff and shut down the Astros' powerful core bats in Springer, Gattis, Correa and Altuve. Can he limit the HRs and keep his pitches consistently low and away to those guys? If he can do so and pitch long into the game, he can get it to the Yankees killer pen.
3. Veteran hitters need veteran performances
Since Mark Teixeira got hurt in August, the Yankees offense sputtered. They rely heavily on timely HRs to do big damage, and they'll need to do this once again. Can Beltran keep his resurgence going? Can A-Rod summon a 2009 postseason once again? Can Ellsbury and Gardner get on base consistently? Can McCann deliver with RISP? Can Headley not totally suck? If the Yankees can get on the board early, it would go a long way in making this a winnable game.
4. Young hitters need to rise to the occasion
Greg Bird has been excellent in place of Mark Teixeira, swinging a surprisingly powerful bat as a rookie. Rob Refsnyder's been pretty good in his little time here. Can these guys put some spark in the offense in a do-or-die game? Keuchel didn't see really them before - maybe they can get to him where the other hitters couldn't?
5. The pen
If the Astros strike early/often, it's not going to matter much...but if the Yankees can keep the game close or take a lead and get Keuchel out of the game, the Andrew Miller/Dellin Betances tandem can close the game out. If Tanaka is shaky or they need extra help, Adam Warren and Justin Wilson can get extra innings.
It's going to be hard to win this game...but that's why they play the games rather than just talk about them. Dallas Keuchel is an ace of aces in the AL this year...but he's pitching on very short rest, pitching on the road, pitching in the cold, and pitching as the front man of a team that hasn't been to the postseason before. The Astros are a powerful team, having hit a ton of HRs (second only to the Blue Jays, and almost 20 more than the Yankees) - but the Yankees have great power too, and also had more hits, had a higher team avg, a higher OBP, and more RBI than the Astros.
This game is on Ellsbury/Gardner (or Chris Young, if he plays instead of the lefty Gardner) to get on base to make it easier to Bird/A-Rod/McCann/Beltran/Headley to get runs in. This game is on the bottom of the order in Gregorius/Headley/Refsnyder to take advantage when they get opportunities. This game is on Tanaka to pitch deep into the game.
...man, fuck all this punditry. We got the Centaur; game's in the bag.
Yankees keys to win the game:
1. Get an early lead. The Yankees led MLB with the most first inning runs.
2. Tanaka has to somehow limit the homeruns he gives up which has been a problem for him this season (1.45 HR/9). He also needs to give them at least 6 innings and get the ball to the backend of the bullpen, which is one of the best in MLB.
3. Yankees more than likely won't light Keuchel up ( he dominated the Yankees in his two starts against them this season 16 innings 0ER 21K). The goal is get him out by the 5th or 6th inning by working the count. Yankees were 4th in MLB in walks per game and 9th in plate appearances per game.
Unsung hero for the game: Rico Noel. He's going to pinch run late in the game and create a run with his legs.
Prediction: Close game with the Yankees winning 4-3.
Yankees need to do this in order to win
1. create scoring opportunities with Ellsbury and Gardner.
2. work the count on Kuechel. you have to play small ball with him.
3. short hook on Tanaka. no excuses. everyone is available.
4. A-Rod has to hit.
it will still be a low scoring affair but they can't allow Altuve or Correia to beat them.
on to Baseball, Yankees win 4-3 with Tanaka going 7.
Wild-Card Games Matchup TV
Tues., Oct. 6, 8 p.m. (ET) Houston Astros at New York Yankees ESPN
Wednesday, Oct. 7, 8 p.m. (ET) Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates TBS
ALDS Matchup TV
Thurs., Oct. 8 AL Wild Card at Royals: Game 1 Fox or FS1
Thurs., Oct. 8 Rangers at Blue Jays: Game 1 Fox or FS1
Fri., Oct. 9 AL Wild Card at Royals: Game 2 Fox or FS1
Fri., Oct. 9 Rangers at Blue Jays: Game 2 Fox or FS1
Sun., Oct. 11 Blue Jays at Rangers: Game 3 TBD
Sun., Oct. 11 Royals at AL Wild Card: Game 3 Fox or FS1
Mon., Oct. 12 Royals at AL Wild Card: Game 4* Fox or FS1
Mon., Oct. 12 Blue Jays at Rangers: Game 4* Fox or FS1
Wed., Oct. 14 AL Wild Card at Royals: Game 5* Fox or FS1
Wed., Oct. 14 Rangers at Blue Jays: Game 5* Fox or FS1
NLDS Matchup TV
Fri., Oct. 9 Dodgers vs. Mets: Game 1 TBS
Fri., Oct. 9 NL Wild Card at Cardinals: Game 1 TBS
Sat., Oct. 10 Dodgers vs. Mets: Game 2 TBS
Sat., Oct. 10 NL Wild Card at Cardinals: Game 2 TBS
Mon., Oct. 12 Dodgers vs. Mets: Game 3 TBS
Mon., Oct. 12 Cardinals at NL Wild Card: Game 3 TBS
Tues., Oct. 13 Cardinals at NL Wild Card: Game 4* TBS
Tues., Oct. 13 Dodgers vs. Mets: Game 4* TBS
Thurs., Oct. 15 NL Wild Card at Cardinals: Game 5* TBS
Thurs., Oct. 15 Dodgers vs. Mets: Game 5* TBS
Start times while I make this prettier.