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[LectureMaster]

Nintendo Switch 2 Won't Be as Successful as Switch 1, Says Analyst

The Nintendo Switch 2 could fall short of sales expectations due to two key factors, according to one analyst.

comicbook.com

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According to a new analyst report from Aldora’s Jost Van Dreunen, backwards compatibility could be part of what holds the Nintendo Switch 2 back at launch. Gamers can be slow to adopt new consoles due to the high cost of adding a new system, especially as early reports suggest that the Nintendo Switch 2 could have a price point around $500 or more. That’s why many console companies like to launch new consoles alongside a massive flagship title, to help encourage gamers to buy in early. As of now, we don’t know much about what shiny new games might be released alongside the Switch 2, but even so, whatever it is may not be enough to encourage buy-in.

According to Van Dreunen, the Nintendo Switch 2 offers only “relatively modest technical improvements” that will make gamers reluctant to pay up for its rumored hefty price tag. That, along with the fact that it may largely play the same games as a standard Nintendo Switch at launch, could lead consumers to hold off on buying the new console. Since Nintendo has only officially revealed a handful of new games for the Switch 2 so far, it does look like the launch could be lackluster without more to tempt players to a new system. None of these games are quite the massive properties like Legends of Zelda: Breath of Wild, though it’s possible Nintendo just hasn’t revealed their plans just yet.

Rumored Nintendo Switch 2 Specs Could Hold the Console Back​

Though the full technical specs for the Nintendo Switch 2 haven’t been confirmed, leaks suggest that it will be more in line with prior-gen consoles like the PS4 and Xbox One. While this is a step up from the current Switch, which struggles to run modern games, it still lags behind current consoles. If this proves true, gamers may well opt to stick with their current system or upgrade to something with a bit more processing power than the Switch 2.

Right now, the Nintendo Switch family of systems has a few key things keeping players hooked in. One, the exclusivity of certain Nintendo games, including the Mario franchise and mainline Pokemon games. Second, it has something of a unique model in this day and age, with the ability for gamers to use it as a handheld console or dock for bigger screen play. Given that PlayStation and Xbox have let their attempts at handheld consoles fall by the wayside in recent years, Nintendo Switch has had relatively little competition in this regard. But with the Steam Deck rising in popularity and rumors of an Xbox handheld on the way, that could change for the Nintendo Switch 2.

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[cireza]

The main competition will be Switch 1, so it will be harder reaching the same numbers.

 

[kevboard]

BREAKING NEWS

System following one of the most successful systems ever made, will not be able to break its ridiculous sales numbers!

more at 10!

 

[Guardian Monkey]

Yeah no shit.

 

[SweetTooth]

Why the pessimism above me, I think metric of success can be different things. Sales is one of them, not everything.

 

[Mokus]

The 2020 pandemic helped the Switch a lot. That is why for Switch 2 it will hard to match the same numbers. But still will be a 100+ million console sales wise.

 

[Durin]

Likely not, but also likely not much worse.

 

[Shtof]

Well, it depends! But with what we currently know, not a chance. 20 million tops

 

[Ellery]

Probably not, but it really depends on the games too. If Nintendo brings out banger after banger in a good intervall and the quality we are used to then the Switch 2 and games will get a lot of talk.

But the Switch 1 performed extremely well and if Nintendo brings too many 3rd party games to the Switch 2 and won't have a good original lineup alongside it then it will be very hard

 

[Ashler]

Thats some Nostradamus level prediction, no doubt.

 

[zokie]

unless there are some sort of 3DS street pass mii plaza with mini games inside Switch 2
or walking with Switch 2 will earn in-game coins with the bulit-in pedometer for new joy cons ( assumption )
or maybe in-game achievements/trophies system for every 1st and 3rd party game

 

[Vaquilla]

The notion that less powerful specs will kill sales is a bad take, Switch 1 was well behind even the base Xbox One in power but still outsold the PS4 easily

 

[David Ricardo]

It depends on the price. If it´s 500$ and, as we see with all systems this gen, it keeps the price mostly unchanged for the full gen, sales are going to be affected no doubt.

 

[spons]

Voted "Yes" on the account of someone claiming "No".
Take that, fucking analysts.

 

[Borealis]

Thats very obvious. Switch was like a perfect storm, where even COVID came at a 'perfect time'. Switch 2 will be successful, but not 150 million sales successful. I see it at a place similar to PS5.

 

[Guardian Monkey]

Why the pessimism above me, I think metric of success can be different things. Sales is one of them, not everything.

The Switch 2 can’t rely on the Wii U catalog like the first Switch did, which is already a major disadvantage. The pipeline for first-party titles won’t be as consistent this generation, and Nintendo hasn’t invested in AI or significantly expanded its development teams to handle more complex hardware. With some games now scaling up to 4K, production times could be impacted—something Nintendo struggled with even when transitioning to HD years ago. Plus, this isn’t a “lightning in a bottle” moment like before.

Eight years ago on this board, I predicted the original Switch would be a success while many expected it to fail. While I don’t think the Switch 2 will flop, I also don’t see it reaching the same meteoric heights as its predecessor—especially if it’s just an upgraded version of the first Switch. That level of success is going to be tough to replicate.

 

[Impotaku]

The notion that less powerful specs will kill sales is a bad take, Switch 1 was well behind even the base Xbox One in power but still outsold the PS4 easily

Exactly this, it’s not the power but what you do with it. Unless they go all out with software again I can’t see it matching the switch sales totals, however this time they dont have the wiiu to help fill in the gaps. That was a masterstroke as it meant it gave more stuff to play while giving games a second chance to shine instead of been eternally locked to a console that flopped. 3rd party need to also be on board from day one, not like switch where a lot just released token efforts because they though it was going to flop then realising they fucked up and then frantically scrabbled to get releases out.

 

[cormack12]

The hardest challenge they have is showing why games on Switch 2 will be better and how long cross gen will be (if at all)

Look at the reaction to the ?MK9? tease on the reveal.

 

[RetroGamingUK]

Who knows?

Now that Nintendo have theme parks and a slate of upcoming movies Nintendo has more mindshare than any other time in its history.

 

[Robb]

Since Nintendo has only officially revealed a handfulof new games for the Switch 2 so far, it does look like the launch could be lackluster without more to tempt players to a new system, though it’s possible Nintendo just hasn’t revealed their plans just yet.

If only there was some kind of presentation planned in the near future..

 

[justiceiro]

Even analysts realized already the modest upgrade switch 2 is, but fans are still on denial.

Man, we are in a crashing course that will be a sight to behold.

 

[Tiago Rodrigues]

I mean...literally the reason why the first one sold as much was due to a pandemic. For 2 years in a row that console broke sales records because it was cheap and the competition was releasing new hardware that wasn't capable of having stock.

Switch would never sell 30M in a single year without that.

 

[RafterXL]

Higher price, no lockdowns, less reason to upgrade, less games. Of course it's not going to be as successful. The Switch had literally everything going for it. It was relatively cheap, Nintendo's previous console was such trash that they just ported the entire library over to the Switch, and Covid hit and everyone pretty much spent their time and money on in-home entertainment. Those conditions don't exist today. I image it will still be successful but not nearly on the same scale.

 

[ADiTAR]

Thats very obvious. Switch was like a perfect storm, where even COVID came at a 'perfect time'. Switch 2 will be successful, but not 150 million sales successful. I see it at a place similar to PS5.

Wait 'till the nuclear fallout.

 

[pulicat]

Rumored Nintendo Switch 2 Specs Could Hold the Console Back​

This is dumb lol, Switch 1 was in the same situation but managed to outsell its competitors effortlessly.

Games are going to define Switch 2 future success and not the specs.

 

[IDKFA]

Nope.

No Nintendo direct sequel console has been as successful as its predecessor.

This won't be any different.

I doubt it'll sell even half of what the OG switch sold.

 

[Mownoc]

When a system has sold over 150m units saying it's successor won't be as successful seems like a pretty safe bet.

 

[Ogbert]

Of course not.

But it will still do very well.

Nintendo have cornered a market, built a castle, manned the barricades and raised the drawbridge.

 

[MayauMiao]

The problem is Switch 1 will still be around and with backward compatibility it will be a safer bed for devs to continue to support the old platform.

But that's okay, it is still win-win for Nintendo anyway.

 

[John Wick]

BREAKING NEWS

System following one of the most successful systems ever made, will not be able to break its ridiculous sales numbers!

more at 10!

Why? PS2 smashed PS1 sales.
It's all about the price. At $399+ it's going to be a tough sell. It will need amazing games though to convince outside the core gamers.

 

[Ozzie666]

I do wonder how many Switches house holds purchased. Based on our home and family, it's pretty insane. Yes I've owned multiple consoles before, slims and pros etc. But the Switch, I think we bought at least 6 different models including the Original, Lite and OLED. so many different editions. Friends and families had 3-4 per house hold.

I find it hard to believe that kind uptake will happen again. Happy to be wrong though. We are getting 2 at launch or as quickly as possible.

 

[Windle Poons]

This is dumb lol, Switch 1 was in the same situation but managed to outsell its competitors effortlessly.

Games are going to define Switch 2 future success and not the specs.

Mom and Dad are going to define Switch 2 success.

Little Timmy who has a Switch and little Tina who has a Switch Lite aren’t getting a Switch 2.

 

[StereoVsn]

I do wonder how many Switches house holds purchased. Based on our home and family, it's pretty insane. Yes I've owned multiple consoles before, slims and pros etc. But the Switch, I think we bought at least 6 different models including the Original, Lite and OLED. so many different editions. Friends and families had 3-4 per house hold.

I find it hard to believe that kind uptake will happen again. Happy to be wrong though. We are getting 2 at launch or as quickly as possible.

Yeah, I have 4 between OG Switch, “New” Switch, Lite and OLED. Kids play their own Switches out of that.

There is no way I am buying 3 Switch 2 consoles for $400+ any time soon.

 

[DonkeyPunchJr]

Switch was the perfect storm. It had no competition in the handheld space. It had been long enough after Wii for gamers to feel nostalgic for Nintendo. It benefitted from the pandemic gaming bubble. And they were able to fill out the library with ports of a bunch of Wii U games that everyone missed out on the first time.

No way Switch 2 will be equally as successful

 

[Horseganador]

NS2 won't sell like the first one, it will be more expensive and will have more competition in the portable market, even so it's clear that it will be a console that will easily sell +100 million and will have a record launch.

 

[Punished Miku]

I think $70 games will really hurt them slowly over time. I think it's hurt the whole industry.

 

[AJUMP23]

It will sell probably 70 million.

 

[blacktout]

Oh lord, comicbook.com. Their sole purpose is to remind the world that it's possible for clickbait gaming "journalism" to sink lower than Kotaku.

 

[Fake]

I think if the next Mario Kart will be a NS2 only, they can still be sucefull.

 

[rm082e]

If you're defining "success" as sales numbers, I highly doubt Switch 2 will surpass the Switch. If we look at time-aligned monthly sales, I won't be surprised if there are periods where the Switch 2 line crosses over and above the Switch line. But let's say 3 years out, I would expect the Switch 2 to be below the Switch.

I'm sure many people will use a different measurement to define "success" for Switch 2, which is fine.

 

[Buggy Loop]

comicbook.com ?

Anyway, fucking hard to beat one of the best selling hardware of all time. Would not be shocked it does not outsell it, at all. Even doing 75% of that is still a huge success.

 

[AeonGaidenRaiden]

I mean that's a given. They are slightly evolving but there won't be any revolutionary hype as if it was a completely new and unseen thing on the market. It's still gonna sell well. Same as PS2 will probably always be thi highest selling Playstation console no matter how many new ones come after.

 

[graywolf323]

it’ll likely sell 100+ million like the Wii but yeah it’s not going to reach 150+ like the Switch 1

Animal Crossing releasing just as the COVID lockdowns started was the perfect storm for massive sales, I don’t think lightning will strike twice

 

[dragonyeuw]

I mean, the Switch is likely to get to 160m. The PS2 sold 155( or 160 if you want to go with Jim Ryan's statement on his way out), DS sold about the same. These companies are now using metrics beyond unit sales that weren't prevalent 15-20 years ago, and have added sources of revenue.

 

[Mhmmm 2077]

If they won't be dumb and will release bunch of games that people want, it will be as successful imo. New Metroid Prime is a good first step. Imagine getting new F-Zero, New Kid Icarus and localizing Mother 3, among other stuff.

 

[Rat Rage]

It all really comes down to the pricing.

If the Switch 2 is priced at 399 = it'll be as successful as the Switch 1 guaranteed.
If the Switch 2 is priced at 449 = it likely won't be as successful as the Switch 1.
If the Switch 2 is priced at 499 = it definitely won't be as successful as the Switch 1.

 

[neocycle]

It all really comes down to the pricing.

If the Switch 2 is priced at 399 = it'll be as successful as the Switch 1 guaranteed.
If the Switch 2 is priced at 449 = it likely won't be as successful as the Switch 1.
If the Switch 2 is priced at 499 = it definitely won't be as successful as the Switch 1.

Why are you starting at 399?!

 

[Little Mac]

Too many unknowns at the moment. It will depend on the cost of the console, the software launch lineup, and subsequent stream of titles the initial year that will determine its success. Needless to say, there needs to be alot of buzz and momentum out the gate. I think Nintendo knows that and will be swinging for the fences on April 2nd. 2 weeks to go!

 

[Bond007]

Impossible to beat Switch 1 - No i dont think so.
But im going to say its unlikely due to the fact that the original exists. Instead of a market of limitless possibility (we had no idea) - now it already has something in front of it and some are inherently gonna just keep what they have. Basically is not gonna be a 1 for 1 swap to Switch 2

 

[Zacfoldor]

While I do agree, it's because Switch 1 will soon be the highest selling console of all time. It is unlikely they will beat their own record, for a number of reasons. Odds are against it. That said, it could still do really really great.