My overall thought process as I was constructing my team during the draft last night...
ROUND 1, Pick 3 - Antonio Brown (PIT) - WR
My hands were pretty much tied as soon as I saw my draft position. David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell were going to be 1-2 in some order and I'd be given my choice of the top receivers. Brown has been the undisputed fantasy king the past two years and while that will invariably end at some point - probably this season because I now own him - the wheels haven't fallen off yet.
ROUND 2, Pick 14 - Dalvin Cook (MIN) - RB
I was mainly just hoping that a decent RB would survive the next 26 picks to make it back to me late in the 2nd round. I would have actually been tempted by Tyreek Hill given his baked in return yardage (like I noted during the draft, he was WR6 in this format last year) but Crazymoogle (aka Team IR) ensured I wouldn't be tempted by him.
While I landed Cook and rather like his schedule this season - his first two opponents in the Saints and Steelers were Bottom 10 against the run in 2016 - I was secretly hoping that McCaffrey would slip to me. Like Hill, McCaffrey is also expected to be returning punts and kickoffs this season thanks to Ted Ginn's departure from the Panthers... and that metric has yet to be baked into Yahoo's projection for him. There's a very good chance he finishes the year at RB1 in this format so long as Cam, JStew and Olsen don't vulture all of his touchdowns away from him.
ROUND 3, Pick 3 - Drew Brees (NO) - QB
I really hate how shallow the QBs are this season. Especially in a deep, 16-team format like this one. Mariota and Winston actually regressed on their rookie seasons last year and yet they're now ranked 6th and 7th overall. Matt Ryan completely outperformed his statistical average last year and blew it out of the water thanks to a soft schedule. That's not likely going to be repeatable. I like Wilson and Newton to have bounce-back years but would they even make it back to me in Round 4 with 26 picks to go? (Turns out Cam would have.)
Yeah, rolling with Brees was a no-brainer. Amassed 5K yards five out of the past six seasons... that's more than every other QB combined in NFL history. And this year's schedule is one of his easiest ever - his first two matchups against the Vikes and Pats will likely be his toughest all season and after that he'll get Snead back and it'll be smooth sailing.
ROUND 4, Pick 14 - Joe Mixon (CIN) - RB
I was actually eyeing receiver almost the entire way in this round; I knew Powell wouldn't make it back to me and that receiver train simply wouldn't stop and made me nervous. But then, Joe Mixon was unexpectedly left unclaimed and was staring back at me. His ADP has him consistently going in the first 48 picks - he's not supposed to still be around at 4.14 - and yet here he was.
Did I really want to run with both of this year's 2nd round rookie running backs as my starters? I already had one lottery ticket at the position - why not grab another to increase my odds of one of them hitting and providing a top-shelf RB stud?
So I pulled the trigger and got myself my 2nd rookie. This decision would ultimately make my choices at receiver super-conservative the rest of the way and was the one that shaped my draft the most.
ROUND 5, Pick 3 - Jarvis Landry (MIA) - WR
Immediately after the Mixon pick, I had buyer's remorse and was internally berating myself for not grabbing Landry. I've owned him more times than just about any player over the past 2-3 seasons and appreciate his consistency (no other receiver outside of the Top 12 in this format has tallied 12 fantasy points per game in this format each of the past two seasons).
Cutler is a new variable - and while there's chatter that DeVante Parker is poised to become his new Marshall / Jeffery equivalent, there's no guarantee he'll break out - like I said above, I was now looking for consistency at WR to balance out my running back rookie lottery tickets.
I held my breath as saveweyard reached on Garcon (whom I actually suspect will have a decent season with Hoyer peppering him) and was relieved to see Landry make his way back to me.
ROUND 6, Pick 14 - James White (NE) - RB
My main thought process with this early reach on White is that I wanted someone I could throw out there with confidence in case one of the rookie running backs struggled or had a batch match-up.
While the RB situation in New England is undeniably a mess, they do boast the easiest rushing sched in the league and my thought process the entire way after Edelman went down is that those short passes he would absorb would invariably go to the guy that caught 14 out of 16 balls thrown his way as he was targeted relentlessly during Super Bowl 51.
In a semi-PPR format, it seems ridiculous that he would still be around late in the 6th with Edelman out of the picture. And while a less flashy decision would have been to go with Theo Riddick instead - I want my RBs to be flashy and my WRs to be Steady Eddy. So I had to go with White.
ROUND 7, Pick 3 - Rishard Matthews (TEN) - WR
My entire mindset with Tight End after last season is that they're pretty interchangeable so long as you get a decent guy. I consider Cameron Brate to be just such a decent guy. With most of the top-shelf TIght Ends already gone at this point, I told myself that "there were only three teams without Tight Ends out of the next 13, plenty of tight ends ranked ahead of Brate by Yahoo!, his ADP is like Round 11 in a 16-team format, you can let him slide, go nab another Steady Eddy wide receiver and he'll come back to you in the 8th".
So that's what I did. I grabbed Mariota's safety valve receiver - a little over 10 fantasy points per game in 2015, a little over 11 fantasy points per game in 2016. I understand he has new toys to play with in perennially-hurt Eric Decker and rookie Corey Davis. But he has established chemistry with Matthews and Walker. That's not going to go away over night. Plus, Decker could get himself hurt again and Davis might struggle in his rookie campaign.
ROUND 8, Pick 14 - Eric Ebron (DET) - TE
So while I was cursing out TheSkullPrince for stealing Cameron Brate from me and leaving me with little more than perennial knuckleheads, ancient Antonio Gates and unproven Austin Hooper at Tight End, I inadvertently triggered my auto-draft flag without realizing it. This led to me winding up with Ebron as I was about to succumb to the temptation of grabbing Ted Ginn (whom I spent the better part of Round 8 begging the field to grab from me). Ginn is going to be racking up monster return yardage for the Saints and now has Brees throwing him the ball and the opportunity to build chemistry with Snead suspended. I had to cash in on that with Drew as my QB... and then, Ebron got drafted as I was about to pull the trigger.
Whoops! Well, at least Stafford likes to throw a lot.
The main reason I was begging Ginn to get grabbed before he fell to me is that I needed to shore up Tight End and cuff Hill with Murray in my next two picks and Ginn would prevent me from doing that. I'd have to make a choice as to what was more important. I'd have likely gone with Murray and would have been happy to throw Witten or Gates into my TE slot as they so happened to hang around a while.
ROUND 9, Pick 3 - Latavius Murray (MIN) - RB
With the Ginn temptation out of the way, this pick was academic. Now I don't expect Murray to get utilized alongside Cook like my Devonta Freeman-Tevin Coleman combo from last season. But I do think he could be a reliable short-yardage TD vulture much like LenDale White was with CJ2K back in the day for the Titans. Plus, Murray can go... he averaged 11 1/2 points per game in 2015 and almost 14 last season for the Raiders before being dealt.
He'll likely be a regular benchwarmer but I have peace of mind that he'll deliver should Cook flame out... and that's all I want from a high-investment rookie RB lottery ticket is peace of mind should he not cash in.
ROUND 10, Pick 14 - Sterling Shepard (NYG) - WR
Now that I was done at running back and tight end, I was just looking for a receiver with some chance for breakout potential to spice up my complement of Steady Eddys. Kevin White was who I was looking at but everyone's favorite sniper, donjezzy, grabbed him before he could fall to me. While I was eyeing another of the offensively-depleted Bears in Kendall White, it was too early to reach for him.
Now Shepard does have some breakout potential in his 2nd season should either OBJ or Marshall hit the shelf - he's effectively a handcuff to either one of them given how much Eli will be throwing the ball. Plenty of receivers have exploded out of nowhere for the Giants in the past; no reason Shepard can't do the same.
ROUND 11, Pick 3 - DeShone Kizer (CLE) - QB
I had Kizer pencilled in to my draft card as a potential late round dart throw and with Brees' early bye week and a matchup at home for the Browns against the woeful Jets in Week 5, I figured it was as good a time as any to roll the dice and grab him. He'll probably lose the job to Kessler now that I've jinxed him.
I did appreciate the team name suggestions of Kizer Soze and Kizer Rolls. If I wasn't attached to my silly Broskis, I would entertain using one of them. I have to win this league as the Broskis... history will show how they valiantly struggled and came up short time and time again despite countless close finishes until they finally persevered and won the big one. If I do it under a different name, it won't be the same.
ROUND 12, Pick 14 - Travis Benjamin (LAC) - WR
Here's another potential breakout guy who struggled with the Chargers last season one year removed from his breakout campaign with Cleveland. Hopefully his PCL/knee issues are a thing of the past as San Diego has invested quite a bit in him financially. He won't be contributing outside of the occasional big play unless either Allen or Tyrell Williams hit the shelf but he IS returning punts so I could certainly do worse for a flex play most weeks. That said, he's likely getting dumped to the wire for something more tantalizing after Week 1.
ROUND 13, Pick 3 - Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST
They have the easiest schedule of any fantasy defense this season - only the Steelers matchup in Week 5 looks especially threatening - and have all of the pieces from early draft picks and signing Bouye from the Texans and Campbell from the Cardinals to step up and deliver - provided that their offense can keep them off the field.
That said they need to start netting some turnovers. Their early sched clearly helps - they face Tom Savage and the Texans in Week 1, Josh McCown and the Jets in Week 4, Jared Goff and the Rams in Week 6 and... if, they get really lucky, perhaps Scott Tolzien and the Colts in Week 7.
ROUND 14, Pick 14
I drafted a kicker. Whom I then replaced with another kicker.
Kickers are useless in this league. Our scoring system reduces their already menial impact that much further. Two points for a 39-yard field goal? Yawn. Just don't start a guy playing in a hurricane and you'll be fine.