November Hardware predictions?
- Thread starter Chi-Town
- Start date
Flakster99
Member
Let's see..
GBA: 1.8 mil
DS: 500k
PS2: 900k
XBX: 780k
GCN: 500k
GBA: 1.8 mil
DS: 500k
PS2: 900k
XBX: 780k
GCN: 500k
Looking at the NPD preview... Pachter expects 11 million more units of hardware (including GBA) to be sold in November and December.
I expect about 40% of those to be sold in November and 60% in December. So, I'm guessing that a little over 4 million units will be sold in November.
GBA = 1.6M - a modest increase over last year due to price drop
PS2 = 800K - GTA hype, but shortages give PS2 a slight drop
XB = 870k - Halo 2 hype and a continuing Xbox momentum with consumers
GC = 320k - No price drop to save their asses, but still a 200% increase over Oct because of other console shortages
DS = 520k - it is a launch unit and these numbers are consistent with Nintendo PR
Total = 4.11 Million units
I expect about 40% of those to be sold in November and 60% in December. So, I'm guessing that a little over 4 million units will be sold in November.
GBA = 1.6M - a modest increase over last year due to price drop
PS2 = 800K - GTA hype, but shortages give PS2 a slight drop
XB = 870k - Halo 2 hype and a continuing Xbox momentum with consumers
GC = 320k - No price drop to save their asses, but still a 200% increase over Oct because of other console shortages
DS = 520k - it is a launch unit and these numbers are consistent with Nintendo PR
Total = 4.11 Million units
Never say never. The DS could become a hot enough item that it does over 500k again in December. Then a price drop before the PSP hits, a good Black Friday sale for the holiday season next year, etc.jedimike said:
BTW, I think your overall hardware predictions are pretty good, although I'm not so sure the Xbox will come out on top, even with the PS2 shortage. But I do think they'll be really close.
sonycowboy
Member
If there were a million Xboxes in the channel (which I doubt there was), I could easily see Xbox selling over a million in November because of Halo (3.6 million units moves alot of hardware).
That's not bad given:
Xbox Sales
Nov 01 - 722k (launch month)
Nov 02 - 468k
Nov 03 - 490k
That would be 100% increase in sales.
BTW, didn't Microsoft claim a 50% increase in sales over black friday week? That could easily put them at 750k assuming similar jumps (which with Halo 2 launch Nov 9, is certainly likely) for the rest of the month.
Xbox > PS2 (because of PS2 shortages, but also tremendous Xbox growth)
That's not bad given:
Xbox Sales
Nov 01 - 722k (launch month)
Nov 02 - 468k
Nov 03 - 490k
That would be 100% increase in sales.
BTW, didn't Microsoft claim a 50% increase in sales over black friday week? That could easily put them at 750k assuming similar jumps (which with Halo 2 launch Nov 9, is certainly likely) for the rest of the month.
Xbox > PS2 (because of PS2 shortages, but also tremendous Xbox growth)
Oh here we go with the "but the numbers are much different if you include XYZ..." nonesense. :lol This just in, MS dominates software sales this Christmas if you include Windows XP and Office! And Sony destroys everyone in hardware if you count TVs and stereo equipment!!!!! HOLY SHIT!
ironichaos
Member
Too bad Windows and Sony Walkmans aren't sold on the same aisles as GBA, GCN, PS2 and Xbox...
soundwave05
Member
Nintendo would be absolutely crazy to stop producing GBA SP. They're going to sell over a million of 'em in November alone, maybe even close to 2 million in December.
If anything, I think it lends credence to their theory that there's room for different levels of portables.
Just like Honda has the Acura line of cars for a slightly higher end consumer, the DS serves that role for Nintendo.
Fact is also, some people just want a convienant, cheap portable that runs for a long ass time.
PSP or DS do not replace the GBA SPs pocket friendly deisgn, battery life, or price point.
If anything, I think it lends credence to their theory that there's room for different levels of portables.
Just like Honda has the Acura line of cars for a slightly higher end consumer, the DS serves that role for Nintendo.
Fact is also, some people just want a convienant, cheap portable that runs for a long ass time.
PSP or DS do not replace the GBA SPs pocket friendly deisgn, battery life, or price point.
sonycowboy
Member
If anybody else wants to make the "Official November NPD prediction thread", feel free. I'm not going to have the time or the energy this week.
I don't know about Xbox > PS2. I think Sony got just enough out for the weekend to hold off MS and the fact that MS doesn't have the slack to pick up the extra demand.sonycowboy said:
The 750k looks realistic, but I still think Sony had enough on shelves to beat that. If Xbox does 1.25 mil in Dec., which isn't that much of a stretch since they did 1.1 last year, it'll be over 12 mil in the US and at least 18 mil worldwide before the end of the year indicating MS should finally be around the 20 mil milestone when Xbox2 is supposed to launch.
The question for me is whether GCN can get a boost and capitalize from the competitions' shortages.
Last few hours for predictions...or feel free to put them with your software predictions in the official thread
http://www.ga-forum.com/showthread.php?t=26909
http://www.ga-forum.com/showthread.php?t=26909