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[AzaK]

Column is up if anyone cares:
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/...dware_in_2012_Winners_losers_and_retirees.php

I'll post my December estimates in a bit. Sorry.

Graphs were really interesting to see their shape. They normally tend towards a bell curve. Take a while to get going, get solid, then slowly drop off. The 360 was almost flat then got a burst (Around Kinect time I imagine). The WIi was the most interesting and IMO the worst possible shape. Bursts out of the gate but them just falls away.

Nintendo handled the Wii absolutely appallingly.

 

[AniHawk]

Yes. Here we go:

[360] 5.32mm
[PS3] 3.41mm
[PSV] 1.28mm
[WII] 1.96mm
[WIU] 0.890mm
[3DS] 3.64mm

nintendo has such a problem with the 3ds. they shouldn't be selling 33% of the ytd sales in one month unless the ytd is something bonkers like 9m. i wonder if it's going to stay flat this year or if it can climb to 4m.

 

[NemesisPrime]

IIRC, it's US where brand new hardware trends are adopted slower. Europe is quicker actually.

What??? That is just bullshit dude.

 

[Mpl90]

What??? That is just bullshit dude.

Seriously? I remember Iwata saying US is very slow in adaptation of brand new hardware, slower than Europe. It was quite some time ago, probably before 3DS' release. Mmh, I have to find that quote in the next future...

 

[test_account]

Seriously? I remember Iwata saying US is very slow in adaptation of brand new hardware, slower than Europe. It was quite some time ago, probably before 3DS' release. Mmh, I have to find that quote in the next future...

Maybe from this?

http://www.siliconera.com/2010/05/1...d-united-kingdom-react-quickest-to-new-trends

 

[Opus Angelorum]

I can't believe we're still just on Update 2.

Well I wouldn't expect anything from Sony.

 

[test_account]

Well I wouldn't expect anything from Sony.

November NPD had 6 updates despite having anything from Sony. But we already got many ballpark sales figures, it just isnt added to the OP as an update.

 

[RukusProvider]

way over on ps3

Under 600k?

 

[Hero]

nintendo has such a problem with the 3ds. they shouldn't be selling 33% of the ytd sales in one month unless the ytd is something bonkers like 9m. i wonder if it's going to stay flat this year or if it can climb to 4m.

With Pokemon X & Y this year I think it'll be able to top 4 million. Especially if there's a price drop involved.

 

[Hammer24]

Thanks for the article JVM, highly appreciated!

 

[allan-bh]

Epic Mickey 2 LTD: 270k according to L.A. Times

 

[A Human Becoming]

Epic Mickey 2 LTD: 270k according to L.A. Times

That was reported not to be accurate. Might have been just December only.

 

[jvm]

I submitted two columns just now for Gamasutra. One of them certainly has some data that folks in this thread might find of interest.

No idea when they'll go up, but at least one should go up tomorrow if all is right with the world.

 

[Psychotext]

/thumbs up

 

[specialguy]

way over on ps3

what? i thought it was narrowed down definitely to between 600 and 650k, hence people took the middle 625k as an estimate. "way over" doesnt compute if 600k is the floor.

i need a damn number for my records!

 

[Psychotext]

I think he was talking about for the year.

 

[jvm]

Today's column was about the Wii U schedule. The real solid figures will be in next week's column. (Already submitted, just has to pass through editors and receive a publication time, etc. I'm guessing it's up Monday or Tuesday. Monday is a U.S. holiday.)

http://gamasutra.com/view/news/185024/Breaking_down_Wii_Us_postlaunch_software_lull.php

 

[donny2112]

Today's column was about the Wii U schedule.

Astounding. Wii U's soft software totals in the face of 39 releases by mid-March makes the average very low. Now obviously NSMBU is going to take up a large amount of that depressed/ing total, so per title sales are ridiculously low. I don't know. Maybe Wii U launched with more filler/shovelware than most consoles do coming from the Wii, which would leave more sales to average across the others, but it's still low. I had high hopes for AC3 and BOII at Wii U launch since it was the most significant traditional game third-party support Nintendo had received on home consoles in probably 5 years, but they apparently aren't (relatively) lighting up the charts. Still think that was somewhat due to poorly planned system release timing by Nintendo. They just had to have the system available by the time AC3 launched, which would make it available for BOII's release, as well, and they skipped both game launches.

I know it's a launch system, so # of systems sold is going to keep sales down, and the discussion on traditional system attach rate at launch, etc. Still, the total software sales is very low, especially considering the raw # of games already available. Nintendo simply had to make the AC3 and BOII launch dates, and they didn't. Very disappointing. Was disappointing when they announced the launch date being after those two game launches and continues to be disappointing with the apparent sales results for those two tentpole third-party releases on the system (i.e. only Zombi U > 100K as of Dec with 890K systems sold).

 

[Psychotext]

Strange... seems like such a lot of titles, but I can only think of a handful of them.

 

[guek]

Astounding. Wii U's soft software totals in the face of 39 releases by mid-March makes the average very low.

Eh? Like with almost everything about wii u's performance, it looks like it's smack dab in the middle, if not slightly above the average, of the historical range.

 

[Laguna]

way over on ps3

I´m not surprised to be honest.

 

[Fantastical]

I can't believe we're still just on Update 2.

Remember when we didn't even need updates?

 

[donny2112]

Remember when we didn't even need updates?

We'd get the thread a few hours/days before getting the full software results. They just didn't update the thread title each time, and it wasn't an update of one number, back then.

Alas.

 

[John Harker]

Oh crud. I have conflicting PS3 numbers. nevermind, ignore that post.

 

[jvm]

Oh crud. I have conflicting PS3 numbers. nevermind, ignore that post.

I continue to stand behind my estimates.

 

[test_account]

Oh crud. I have conflicting PS3 numbers. nevermind, ignore that post.

So the 2012 estimate earlier is close enough?

 

[Celine]

Remember when we didn't even need updates?

Yes :-(

 

[jvm]

So the 2012 estimate earlier is close enough?

I believe the PS3 figure for December, and for 2012, are pretty good. We'll see.

 

[test_account]

I believe the PS3 figure for December, and for 2012, are pretty good. We'll see.

Cool

 

[CTLance]

Aw man, I wish I had as much time as in ye olden NPD days. I just got done with reading through the thread.

Ho. Lee. Carp.

When's the jvm special NPD review time with maybe possibly more numbahs™ again? I don't even remember which site it was on... kinda dropped off the gaming planet for a year or so.

Gawd, I wish we had oldschool NPD data. My inner Nintendo fanboy would probably compress itself into a tiny ball of anguish, hatred and crystallized pessimism. That really doesn't look great. Sure, it's not terrible, but the 3DS is suffering, the Wii is kinda eating into Wii U territory (the "HD twins" too, ofc) - what little Wii U territory there is, anyway. There's only so many times one can get away with an ambassador program.

 

[Subtle]

That's a solid 3DS number!

 

[jvm]

Due to holiday in U.S. my column was bumped to Tuesday. Sorry.

Here's a graph not in tomorrow's column, just for fun.

 

[Kazerei]

dat hump

How far back can you go with that graph? I'd love to see last gen's industry revenue compared to this gen.

 

[BlackJace]

Due to holiday in U.S. my column was bumped to Tuesday. Sorry.

Here's a graph not in tomorrow's column, just for fun.

That's one hell of a decline. Here's to a better year.

 

[Psychotext]

What's that in percentage terms? 15-20%?

 

[donny2112]

Due to holiday in U.S. my column was bumped to Tuesday. Sorry.

Here's a graph not in tomorrow's column, just for fun.

So you're saying the industry has grown since 2006. Good to know.

 

[Hero]

Due to holiday in U.S. my column was bumped to Tuesday. Sorry.

Here's a graph not in tomorrow's column, just for fun.

I know it might not be available or entirely accurate but is there anyway we have sourcing or numbers on how digital revenue is doing? I know it's probably not enough to make up the difference but I think it would at least paint a better picture.

 

[Petrae]

So you're saying the industry has grown since 2006. Good to know.

Actually, it hasn't grown since 2008.

2012 was the worst year for retail revenue since 2006, according to jvm's chart.

 

[udivision]

Maybe if the Wii never existed, the decline (and growth) wouldn't have been so big.

 

[Petrae]

Maybe if the Wii never existed, the decline (and growth) wouldn't have been so big.

I can buy that. Without Wii, sales probably a bit more realistic. Instead, we got huge numbers-- and bigger expectations.

 

[donny2112]

Actually, it hasn't grown since 2008.

tongue-in-cheek

If you just compare 2006 to 2012, 2012 is up! Growing industry!

It's a bigger launching level for "next-gen" than last time, though.

 

[Version 3.0]

I know it might not be available or entirely accurate but is there anyway we have sourcing or numbers on how digital revenue is doing? I know it's probably not enough to make up the difference but I think it would at least paint a better picture.

The rise and fall there likely mirrors Nintendo's big DS and Wii boom and decline more than digital sales' impact, though of course that contributes to the fall. I'd also say this year's steeper decline is mostly the fault of the overdue next gen systems.

 

[michaelius]

Looks like expanded market that Wii brough is now gone and we are back to core gamer dominated enviroment.

 

[AzaK]

Looks like expanded market that Wii brough is now gone and we are back to core gamer dominated enviroment.

Unfortunately Nintendo didn't realise this. Or they did but were to scared to change back.

 

[Spieler Eins]

Looks like expanded market that Wii brough is now gone and we are back to core gamer dominated enviroment.

Big parts of the CoD/sports game audience are equally casual, just a different category. The mainstream is anything, but certainly not hobby gamer orientated with so little variety.

 

[jvm]

I believe the column is up now.
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/184899/US_retail_software_in_2012_What_you_need_to_know.php

 

[Celine]

I believe the column is up now.
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/184899/US_retail_software_in_2012_What_you_need_to_know.php

Wii U Launches as Xbox Peaks, PS3 and Wii Decline

miss a 360 there, I believe.

 

[TheOddOne]

I believe the column is up now.

Thanks! Suprised by the Nike + Kinect training info, I thought it bombed hard.

 

[jvm]

Wii U Launches as Xbox Peaks, PS3 and Wii Decline

miss a 360 there, I believe.

I was trying to keep it succinct. I figured there could be only one I possibly mean.

 

[Pociask]

Due to holiday in U.S. my column was bumped to Tuesday. Sorry.

Here's a graph not in tomorrow's column, just for fun.

Holy crap.