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[Thunder Monkey]

Once again. How do these numbers speak for the entire year of a system's life? Could you explain as if I were in 3rd grade, please?

Since you're apparently going to be a dick about it.

Console hardware is sold by the software. January says "WiiU software not that interesting." Then we look at release lists... oh... very little releasing. From that and basic deductive reasoning we can go "Damn... the first half of this year is going to be rough."

 

[archnemesis]

Once again. How do these numbers speak for the entire year of a system's life? Could you explain as if I were in 3rd grade, please?

They don't. However, nothing is going to change anytime soon. Nintendo isn't going to drop the price and the release schedule will continue to be incredibly sparse. The Wii U will sell horribly next month and the month after that.

 

[Celine]

Have creamsugar chime in yet?

 

[Thunder Monkey]

You sound as if this is impossible.

It just sold 11,000 units a week in a five week month. Impossible? Maybe not, but currently looking very very unlikely.

 

[Lysander91]

I'm guessing that there will be a WiiU Price drop at E3, but will it be too little too late? Most gamers will probably be saving for a next gen console.

 

[airmangataosenai]

Once again. How do these numbers speak for the entire year of a system's life? Could you explain as if I were in 3rd grade, please?

Regardless of software or other factors, these sales give us an idea of where baseline interest of the platform is, and that the baseline of interest is drastically lower than that for either the SNES, N64, Gamecube, or Wii when they launched. No system has ever seen a month this bad this early in its life before, this speaks of soft demand. Demand is unlikely to improve dramatically because publisher support and public interest are in the process of preparing for next-gen consoles leaving little to no room for Nintendo to improve its position.

 

[Quinton McLeod]

Since you're apparently going to be a dick about it.

Console hardware is sold by the software. January says "WiiU software not that interesting." Then we look at release lists... oh... very little releasing. From that and basic deductive reasoning we can go "Damn... the first half of this year is going to be rough."

Oh, alright... So umm... What software is releasing this year?

They don't. However, nothing is going to change anytime soon. Nintendo isn't going to drop the price and the release schedule will continue to be incredibly sparse. The Wii U will sell horribly next month and the month after that.

Based on what data?

 

[shas'la]

Just from the first few pages, Hilarious reactions to both 270k and 55k.

Love dat gif.

 

[NBtoaster]

You sound as if this is impossible.

There's a small chance it could happen in March as it actually has a couple exclusives. April and May just have a total of 3 non exclusive releases, so that's fairly unlikely.

 

[farnham]

I'm guessing that there will be a WiiU Price drop at E3, but will it be too little too late? Most gamers will probably be saving for a next gen console.

You are missing the point wiiu is aimed at casual and nongamers not the gamers you refer to.

 

[Aquamarine]

You sound as if this is impossible.

I see strong parallels between the Wii U's lack of performance and that of the GameCube, a system that was left in a similar rut (no 1st-party titles from January 2002 and June 2002 in the USA, but it launched with SSBM)

If we apply the GameCube's sales trends to the Wii U, we get this:

* February - 60k
* March - 93k
* April - 63k
* May - 93k

...Essentially making it impossible for the Wii U to match the SNES's 1st 7 month performance.

 

[Quinton McLeod]

Regardless of software or other factors, these sales give us an idea of where baseline interest of the platform is, and that the baseline of interest is drastically lower than that for either the SNES, N64, Gamecube, or Wii when they launched. No system has ever seen a month this bad this early in its life before, this speaks of soft demand. Demand is unlikely to improve dramatically because publisher support and public interest are in the process of preparing for next-gen consoles leaving little to no room for Nintendo to improve its position.

And what of November and December? We disregard those months and only look at January, which so happens to be the slowest month of the year?

I see strong parallel's between the Wii U's lack of performance and that of the GameCube, a system that was left in a similar rut (no 1st-party titles from January 2002 and June 2002 in the USA, but it launched with SSBM)

If we apply the GameCube's sales trends to the Wii U, we get this:

* February - 60k
* March - 93k
* April - 63k
* May - 93

...Essentially making it impossible for the Wii U to match the SNES's 1st 7 month performance.

But the Wii U isn't the Gamecube. Heck, why use the Gamecube as a comparison and not the Virtualboy?

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Oh, alright... So umm... What software is releasing this year?

We know very little about the second half of the year... but to make up for what we're looking at in the first half it will have to be huge if the system wants to have any relevancy by the launch of Sony and MS new systems.

 

[AzaK]

You are missing the point wiiu is aimed at casual and nongamers not the gamers you refer to.

That's not what Reggie told me.

 

[Quinton McLeod]

We know very little about the second half of the year... but to make up for what we're looking at in the first half it will have to be huge if the system wants to have any relevancy by the launch of Sony and MS new systems.

Once again. What software is releasing this year?

 

[Aquamarine]

But the Wii U isn't the Gamecube. Heck, why use the Gamecube as a comparison and not the Virtualboy?

GameCube's 1st three month sales aligns STRONGLY with the Wii U's-----a strong November and a strong December, then an abysmal January.

And like I JUST said, the GameCube is in a similar rut to the Wii U at this point (hardly any 1st-party titles, getting pushed out by its competitors, etc.)

 

[farnham]

Regardless of software or other factors, these sales give us an idea of where baseline interest of the platform is, and that the baseline of interest is drastically lower than that for either the SNES, N64, Gamecube, or Wii when they launched. No system has ever seen a month this bad this early in its life before, this speaks of soft demand. Demand is unlikely to improve dramatically because publisher support and public interest are in the process of preparing for next-gen consoles leaving little to no room for Nintendo to improve its position.

Their own software will imprpve interest. By how mich i dont know.

 

[Majine]

Wii U vs Vita, Battle of the bottom pit!

 

[SmokyDave]

You are missing the point wiiu is aimed at casual and nongamers not the gamers you refer to.

I'm not sure that Nintendo agree with you there.

 

[Saty]

No DmC estimations yet?

 

[Quinton McLeod]

GameCube's 1st three month sales aligns STRONGLY with the Wii U's-----a strong November and a strong December, then an abysmal January.

And like I JUST said, the GameCube is in a similar rut to the Wii U at this point (no quality 1st-party titles, getting pushed out by its competitors, etc.)

But the Wii U isn't the Gamecube. It's simply not the same system, nor does it have the same name recognition as the Wii. It also didn't release under the same circumstances. The rate of sale between months is a coincidence. It's not vindictive of making predictions on the Wii U's 2013 success.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Once again. What software is releasing this year?

Pikmin? A modest seller.

Wii Fit? A question of its relevancy.

Maybe a 3D Mario? Maybe a Zelda remake? Maybe SSB? Maybe Mario Kart? I've been pretty adamant that software could very well change a platforms fortunes. But we don't know what is launching in the second half of the year on WiiU. I just posted that it would have to be huge to make up for what's looking like a really rocky first half.

Now are you going to make a point?

 

[airmangataosenai]

And what of November and December? We disregard those months and only look at January, which so happens to be the slowest month of the year?




But the Wii U isn't the Gamecube. Heck, why use the Gamecube as a comparison and not the Virtualboy?

Because we know precisely how the Gamecube sold each month, reliable month to month sales data doesn't date that far back on the Internet.

As for Dec/Nov.... what about it? If you think holiday launch sales are indicative of a platform's overall health then you're in for a rude awakening. Again with the Gamecube, it did very well in its first holiday too. Better than the Wii U actually.

 

[Quinton McLeod]

Pikmin? A modest seller.

Wii Fit? A question of its relevancy.

Maybe a 3D Mario? Maybe a Zelda remake? Maybe SSB? Maybe Mario Kart? I've been pretty adamant that software could very well change a platforms fortunes. But we don't know what is launching in the second half of the year on WiiU. I just posted that it would have to be huge to make up for what's looking like a really rocky first half.

Now are you going to make a point?

Yes, here's my point:
You don't know what games are coming out this year. No one does outside of table scraps. So, how can you say the software lineup is bad for the first half the year?

 

[shinra-bansho]

Oh, alright... So umm... What software is releasing this year?

Over 50 gameszzzz!!

Obviously.

Or we could look at the release schedule, developer comments about cancellations, announcements of 360/PS3 only games and the actions of Ubisoft... and realise something is rotten in the state of Denmark.

 

[Aquamarine]

But the Wii U isn't the Gamecube. It's simply not the same system, nor does it have the same name recognition as the Wii. It also didn't release under the same circumstances. The rate of sale between months is a coincidence. It's not vindictive of making predictions on the Wii U's 2013 success.

It does have one thing exactly like the GameCube-----people questioning its relevance and its ability to succeed in today's market.

The Wii's sales never dipped below 250k during its first year at market. There was never this FUNDAMENTAL, PERVASIVE UNEASE that plagued consoles like the GameCube and the Wii U.

 

[archnemesis]

Based on what data?

This data. You act like there are only two data points when there in fact are thousands of data points describing the sale trends of video game systems. Trends don't just change without external input and there you won't see any important changes from Nintendo anytime soon. They have already declared their intents through various reports to retailers, press and consumers.

 

[GremlinFool]

And what of November and December? We disregard those months and only look at January, which so happens to be the slowest month of the year?

Because invariant to the natural business cycle of the gaming industry, NO console in recent memory (meaning throughout the entirety of the last two console generations) has fallen this precipitously from one month to another or attained average weekly sales this low.

The drop in sales from December to January, particularly directly after a launch (when there are typically severe supply constraints that cause spillover sales into the new year) only has two reasonable explanations (and both are equally cataclysmic):
~Demand for the system as a whole has eroded due to a combination of limited software, bad word of mouth, or fallen consumer confidence in Nintendo products.
~There was never that much demand to begin with. Holiday sales were frontloaded because of the emergence of a new market and diehard Nintendo fans, and the system just hasn't resonated amongst the general populace at its current price point.

The nominal sales during the holiday season aren't nearly as important as the alarming MOM decline in sales. If anything, pointing out the relatively high launch sales of the WiiU bolsters the argument that the system is fucked for the foreseeable future.

 

[Dantis]

Yes, here's my point:
You don't know what games are coming out this year. No one does outside of table scraps. So, how can you say the software lineup is bad for the first half the year?

Because common sense says that Nintendo aren't going to release huge system-saving games with no announcement? Are you expecting them to say "Here's Mario Galaxy 3, out next month!"?

 

[Quinton McLeod]

Over 50 gameszzzz!!

Obviously.

Or we could look at the release schedule, developer comments about cancellations, announcements of 360/PS3 only games and the actions of Ubisoft... and realise something is rotten in the state of Denmark.

Not even the developers know what the execs at Ubisoft are thinking. Sending off a game to die in the chaos (New Consoles and GTAV) later this year? That says very little about the Wii U and more about Ubisoft.

 

[Aquamarine]

Never mind.

 

[SmokyDave]

Yes, here's my point:
You don't know what games are coming out this year. No one does outside of table scraps. So, how can you say the software lineup is bad for the first half the year?

I'm totally stealing this to defend the Vita.

 

[pieatorium]

Not even the developers know what the execs at Ubisoft are thinking. Sending off a game to die in the chaos (New Consoles and GTAV) later this year? That says very little about the Wii U and more about Ubisoft.

I think it speaks volumes that throwing their game under the GTA bus sounds like a better idea than going through with their original plan.

 

[Quinton McLeod]

Because common sense says that Nintendo aren't going to release huge system-saving games with no announcement? Are you expecting them to say "Here's Mario Galaxy 3, out next month!"?

They've done it before.

Because invariant to the natural business cycle of the gaming industry, NO console in recent memory (meaning throughout the entirety of the last two console generations) has fallen this precipitously from one month to another or attained average weekly sales this low.

The drop in sales from December to January, particularly directly after a launch (when there are typically severe supply constraints that cause spillover sales into the new year) only has two reasonable explanations (and both are equally cataclysmic):
~Demand for the system as a whole has eroded due to a combination of limited software, bad word of mouth, or fallen consumer confidence in Nintendo products.
~There was never that much demand to begin with. Holiday sales were frontloaded because of the emergence of a new market and diehard Nintendo fans, and the system just hasn't resonated amongst the general populace at its current price point.

The nominal sales during the holiday season aren't nearly as important as the alarming MOM decline in sales. If anything, pointing out the relatively high launch sales of the WiiU bolsters the argument that the system is fucked for the foreseeable future.

You've deducted that much from one month? Yet, you're missing several economical factors. 1) Recovering economy (the first new console release since the recession), 2) Brand confusion. Wii and Wii U. 3) Slowest retail month of the year. 4) Very few games releasing for the month. You skipped all of that to only ask yourself more questions. The simple answer is, there's not enough data.

 

[PuppetMaster]

Those Nintendo numbers are chilling...

 

[CadetMahoney]

Don't worry guys, it's just a soft launch.

The softer they launch the harder they fall.

 

[airmangataosenai]

Also Quinton, just putting it out there but going through your posting history, you said that you were okay with waiting to judge the system until after we saw the January/February sales figures.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=46746614&postcount=410

Are you moving that goalpost back?

 

[Quinton McLeod]

I think it speaks volumes that throwing their game under the GTA bus sounds like a better idea than going through with their original plan.

Explain.

 

[klapauzius]

Don't worry about Wii U.

Wii U sales will be high when Nintendo release some of the new games. There are many gamers out there waiting for more games before buying this console.

The overall sales of consoles and games are disappointing.

 

[Box of Bunnies]

Yes, here's my point:
You don't know what games are coming out this year. No one does outside of table scraps. So, how can you say the software lineup is bad for the first half the year?

Pay no attention to that empty release schedule man behind the curtain.

 

[Quinton McLeod]

Also Quinton, just putting it out there but going through your posting history, you said that you were okay with waiting to judge the system until after we saw the January/February sales figures.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=46746614&postcount=410

Are you moving that goalpost back?

Freakish.... It's like your slipping your hand into my underwear.

In any case, the answer to your question still resounds in what I've been saying here. January isn't enough data. Maybe we can talk when we see February's numbers, but at least we'd see a trend. January doesn't show a trend.

Pay no attention to that empty release schedule man behind the curtain.

Did you have any idea another Zelda game was being released this year?
I don't think the list is empty, but rather, Nintendo is withholding the information.

 

[Teletraan1]

By your logic, the SNES was a failure too.

The console market was a lot smaller back in the SNES days. Absolute comparisons are meaningless. The total amount of consoles sold in that generation probably never broke 100m, in this gen we had 2 @ 75m and whatever the Wii is at. Probably around 225-250m consoles sold in this gen.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Prudent decision making on Ubisoft's part.

When February rolls around and it sells similarly low numbers, presumably there'll be "only two data points."

 

[Aquamarine]

Freakish.... It's like your slipping your hand into my underwear.

In any case, the answer to your question still resounds in what I've been saying here. January isn't enough data. Maybe we can talk when we see February's numbers, but at least we'd see a trend. January doesn't show a trend.

I'm willing to bet it will follow the GameCube sales trend to the letter. Which means 60k MAXIMUM if Nintendo doesn't make any major, panic-induced changes.

Prudent decision making on Ubisoft's part.

I agree. The respect I lost for Guillemot has...come back a little bit. He must have seen the writing on the wall.

 

[sphinx]

o.k those were 60 pages of Wii U fun.

what about Vita? has ANY other relevant handheld reached lower than 35k this early in its lifetime?

 

[Quinton McLeod]

I'm willing to bet it will follow the GameCube sales trend to the letter. Which means 60k MAXIMUM if Nintendo doesn't make any major, panic-induced changes.

We will see.

 

[shinra-bansho]

o.k those were 60 pages of Wii U fun.

what about Vita? has ANY other relevant handheld reached lower than 35k this early in its lifetime?

You make the mistake of thinking Vita is a relevant handheld.

 

[1138]

But the Wii U isn't the Gamecube. Heck, why use the Gamecube as a comparison and not the Virtualboy?

Yep, you are right. The Gamecube had a far better software lineup and several quality third party titles. Many of them were even innovative and fresh, and not rehashes of tired old franchise entries! It also launched at a reasonable price and didnt rely on gimmicks.

 

[liger05]

o.k those were 60 pages of Wii U fun.

what about Vita? has ANY other relevant handheld reached lower than 35k this early in its lifetime?

PSP Go?

I wonder how Reggie slept last night.

 

[GremlinFool]

You've deducted that much from one month? Yet, you're missing several economical factors. 1) Recovering economy (the first new console release since the recession), 2) Brand confusion. Wii and Wii U. 3) Slowest retail month of the year. 4) Very few games releasing for the month. You skipped all of that to only ask yourself more questions. The simple answer is, there's not enough data.

So you clearly didn't read my post and continue to be deliberately dense, antagonistic, and stupidly naive.

I would heavily advise everyone in this thread to stop responding to this poster.

Edit: I actually do want to amend my post. You may not be acting dense deliberately. There is a very good chance that you're actually unable to grasp simple points and extrapolations predicated on well-established historical trends. In which case, I apologize for questioning your motives. Regardless, my last point on not responding to you still stands.