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[donny2112]

What if a big Japanese title relevant in the West too is announced next week?

Nintendo wouldn't make their key November game a third-party title, though. Even though Rogue Leader was the best game at GameCube's launch, Luigi's Mansion was still Nintendo's "main" title.

Edit:
As far as unannounced titles, Mario Party 3DS may be an option. Mario Party DS was the "main" DS November game in 2007, for reference. A new Metroid might also be an option, but that seems less likely.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Relative to other JRPGs? Yes.

Relative to costs? Unsure.

I assume Namco foot the bill for the localization.

I have to wonder if the really long time from announcement to release hurt its chances at better sales.

 

[Mpl90]

Nintendo wouldn't make their key November game a third-party title, though. Even though Rogue Leader was the best game at GameCube's launch, Luigi's Mansion was still Nintendo's "main" title.

Aah, I thought you were talking about third party titles in general, and not about just third party titles Nintendo can publish. Of course, if it's announced, Zelda is their November title, I was simply talking about third parties.

 

[Nirolak]

I assume Namco foot the bill for the localization.

I have to wonder if the really long time from announcement to release hurt its chances at better sales.

I don't know. This is pretty high for a JRPG I feel.

Like, if I was told the game sold 30K copies it wouldn't seem unreasonable given how the genre does lately.

Edit: By costs, I mean costs of the entire game and recouping them worldwide.

 

[donny2112]

Aah, I thought you were talking about third party titles in general, and not about just third party titles Nintendo can publish. Of course, if it's announced, Zelda is their November title, I was simply talking about third parties.

For 3DS. That's their Wii U currently announced Fall title, but not sure it'll be their main November title, if they can get Kart or 3-D Mario out this year. See the edit above. An unannounced Mario Party 3DS may be an option.

 

[Celine]

About third parties, maybe next week's Direct will give us some hint. What if a big Japanese title relevant in the West too is announced next week?

the amount of japanese IPs relevant in the west (exluding Nintendo) is really limited as of now.

 

[donny2112]

the amount of japanese IPs relevant in the west (exluding Nintendo) is really limited as of now.

Final Fantasy (lessened, but still relevant)
Resident Evil
Metal Gear Solid
(Possibly Kingdom Hearts, if it hasn't been finished by all the non-numbered entries)

There are also some licensed/sport-type games, but that may not be relevant to the point of the discussion. e.g. PES, GT

 

[Mpl90]

For 3DS. That's their Wii U currently announced Fall title, but not sure it'll be their main November title, if they can get Kart or 3-D Mario out this year. See the edit above. An unannounced Mario Party 3DS may be an option.

I was talking about 3DS too. I still think a main Zelda for 3DS is possible. They could release WW HD in October and brand new main Zelda for 3DS in November. Mario Party 3DS is another possibility, but I still think Zelda is much more possible. Other sensible guesses for 3DS November spot?

 

[Nirolak]

the amount of japanese IPs relevant in the west (exluding Nintendo) is really limited as of now.

Well let's see (and I'll be generous here, ignore platform (as in pick the highest one), go with mainline sales, and since he said West, I'll assume he means US + Europe):

Major: (1+ million sell-through potential)
-Metal Gear
-Resident Evil
-Final Fantasy
-Street Fighter
-Sonic
-Kingdom Hearts

Minor: (500K+ sell-through potential)
-Tekken
-Soul Calibur
-Dark Souls
-Devil May Cry
-Dragon Quest
-Naruto (Licensed IP)

Am I missing anything? Do we still count Dead Rising as a Japanese IP?

 

[Soriku]

To me it seems unlikely that Level 5 is willing to risk funding another major console JRPG on their own given how much their current series are struggling.

However, if Namco sees potential for notable growth, they may (partially) fund a sequel for them.

Hmm, you never know. Namco is supporting Dark Souls after Demon's Souls sold well. These sales are good for a JRPG so it may not be a bad idea. But I imagine their focus would be for Western markets as I don't think the JP market would be that receptive to a sequel.

 

[Foshy]

Well let's see (and I'll be generous here, ignore platform, and since he said West, I'll assume he means US + Europe):

Major: (1+ million sell-through potential)
-Metal Gear
-Resident Evil
-Final Fantasy
-Street Fighter
-Sonic

Minor: (500K+ sell-through potential)
-Tekken
-Street Fighter
-Dark Souls
-Devil May Cry

Am I missing anything? Do we still count Dead Rising as a Japanese IP?

You've got Street Fighter in both your lists.

 

[Nirolak]

You've got Street Fighter in both your lists.

Sorry the second one should say Soul Calibur.

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

Well let's see (and I'll be generous here, ignore platform, and since he said West, I'll assume he means US + Europe):

Major: (1+ million sell-through potential)
-Metal Gear
-Resident Evil
-Final Fantasy
-Street Fighter
-Sonic

Minor: (500K+ sell-through potential)
-Tekken
-Soul Calibur
-Dark Souls
-Devil May Cry

Am I missing anything? Do we still count Dead Rising as a Japanese IP?

Im sure there are many others but Gran Turismo is the first major that comes to mind

 

[Nirolak]

Im sure there are many others but Gran Turismo is the first major that comes to mind

Well mpl90 said third party so I left off Sony's franchise, but yes, if it's just "not-Nintendo", then GT would fit.

 

[metalslimer]

I was talking about 3DS too. I still think a main Zelda for 3DS is possible. They could release WW HD in October and brand new main Zelda for 3DS in November. Mario Party 3DS is another possibility, but I still think Zelda is much more possible. Other sensible guesses for 3DS November spot?

I don't think so. My guess as to Nintendo's fall lineup is that Pokemon will be the main driver even if its not released in November.

October-Pokemon
November- Kirby 3DS

 

[Kusagari]

Well let's see (and I'll be generous here, ignore platform, and since he said West, I'll assume he means US + Europe):

Major: (1+ million sell-through potential)
-Metal Gear
-Resident Evil
-Final Fantasy
-Street Fighter
-Sonic

Minor: (500K+ sell-through potential)
-Tekken
-Soul Calibur
-Dark Souls
-Devil May Cry

Am I missing anything? Do we still count Dead Rising as a Japanese IP?

Kingdom Hearts is the only one I can think of.

DQIX managed to do a million between America and Europe but it's hard to say what that means for the franchise itself.

 

[Nirolak]

Kingdom Hearts is the only one I can think of.

DQIX managed to do a million between America and Europe but it's hard to say what that means for the franchise itself.

Oh yeah Kingdom Hearts is a good one, even in its declined state.

I'll put Dragon Quest in minor given that DQ8 also did all right.

 

[Mpl90]

I don't think so. My guess as to Nintendo's fall lineup is that Pokemon will be the main driver even if its not released in November.

October-Pokemon
November- Kirby 3DS

This Fall they need another strong title. It's true that Pokémon is the strongest title possible, but it can't be the only title to drive sales through Holidays. How much did other Kirby titles sold in US? That's certainly another possibility, but Zelda would be far better saleswise. So far, we can assume 3DS's 2013 Fall lineup should be something like this

First party

Pokémon
Layton (LxAA or Layton 6?)

Third party

Sonic Adventure 3
Mario & Sonic at Winter Olympic Games 2014

This is without counting other multi releases and that, obviously, there are going to be other announcements from both first and third parties.

 

[metalslimer]

I'm not sure who exactly is going to be making anymore 3DS games though

Looking at Nintendo's 1st parties we have
EAD1- Mario Kart Wii U
EAD2- Just Finished Nintendo Land and Animal Crossing, probably starting on a Wii U animal crossing
EAD3- Possibly could get Zelda out there for 3DS, but I don't think it will be ready until next year, and if it is revealed at E3 I don't see it being released the same year
EAD4- Still can't get Pikmin 3 out the door, also just finished NSMB2 and NSMBU
EAD5- Wii Fit U is going out the door this year
Intelligent Systems- Just finshed Paper Mario, presumably working on Fire EmblemxSMT, maybe enough staff for an Advance Wars or new IP?
Monolith- possible 3DS game could be out in Japan this year, but no way it is in America or could be considered a holiday game
Camelot- Mario Golf
Retro- probably understaffed as it is for their Wii U game
Good Feel- Yoshi Land
Alpha Dream- Mario and Luigi
EAD Tokyo- 3D Mario Wii U
Next Level- as long as it took to get LM2 out...no

The big one I haven't mentioned is Monster and they could possibly have a new racing game which is believable

 

[kswiston]

Oh yeah Kingdom Hearts is a good one, even in its declined state.

I'll put Dragon Quest in minor given that DQ8 also did all right.

You are probably missing some licensed anime stuff that passes the 500k mark between NA and EU, but I am having difficulty thinking of much else.

Sort of depressing really.

 

[airmangataosenai]

You are probably missing some licensed anime stuff that passes the 500k mark between NA and EU, but I am having difficulty thinking of much else.

Sort of depressing really.

Naruto PS3/360 games do pretty well.

 

[Nirolak]

You are probably missing some licensed anime stuff that passes the 500k mark between NA and EU, but I am having difficulty thinking of much else.

Sort of depressing really.

Naruto PS3/360 games do pretty well.

The Naruto games would definitely fit, but I was debating whether or not to include licensed IPs.

I think I'll put it on there with a note.

 

[Version 3.0]

There isn't any conceivable way that Nintendo could lower the MSRP for 3DS games to $30 midway through the gen, right?

I don't see why not. Playstation 1 and Nintendo 64 games both became cheaper as that gen wore on, as Sony lowered prices to where they knew Nintendo couldn't match.

 

[mujun]

112k for Ninokuni is more than you could hope for for a JRPG in the US, really.

I wonder what Hino's expectations were when he said a sequel is possible if the game sold well in the West though. Hopefully he sees these sales as encouraging. A sequel on PS4 hardware/graphics would be a sight to behold.

Didn't FF13 do over a million in the U.S?

 

[Skilletor]

Didn't FF13 do over a million in the U.S?

Final Fantasy is pretty much the only jrpg that can do numbers like that in the US.

 

[Glass Rebel]

Final Fantasy is pretty much the only jrpg that can do numbers like that in the US.

Pokemon is a JRPG

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Vita ~ 34k (cod bundle ~ 40%)

COD its power.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

I don't see why not. Playstation 1 and Nintendo 64 games both became cheaper as that gen wore on, as Sony lowered prices to where they knew Nintendo couldn't match.

PS1 games actually became more expensive.

 

[udivision]

Pokemon is a JRPG

It's a Nintendo game though, so it's an exception to the rule... of FF being an exception to the rule.

 

[Skilletor]

Pokemon is a JRPG

I forget about Pokemon since I don't play them, but this is true. So that's two...out of dozens.

 

[sphinx]

still no press release from nintendo....is this the calm before the storm??

it feels like Iwata is going to resign the next time he shows his face, I feel bad for him.

 

[Hero]

Pretty sure they've already indicated that they're working on an original Zelda title for 3DS, it's just a matter of when.

 

[Version 3.0]

PS1 games actually became more expensive.

They most certainly did not. I have the receipts to prove it.

 

[donny2112]

still no press release from nintendo...

If there's not one the first night (or maybe the next day), there's not one coming. Don't think we've gotten one past Friday before, and maybe even not past Thursday night (for the ones that have released on Thursday).

They most certainly did not. I have the receipts to prove it.

I'm wondering if he meant N64 and wrote PS1. N64 games got more expensive as the cartridge sizes went up in the generation.

Yes, DS > Wii U

Just realized, we need some DS/Wii U fight GIFs in here!

 

[donny2112]

Oops.

 

[Kusagari]

Final Fantasy is pretty much the only jrpg that can do numbers like that in the US.

A mainline Kingdom Hearts on a console could do those numbers.

So you've got three with that and Pokemon.

 

[Aquamarine]

still no press release from nintendo....is this the calm before the storm??

it feels like Iwata is going to resign the next time he shows his face, I feel bad for him.

DS + Wii + 3DS are all down from January 2012 NPD. The Wii U bombed.

What is there to report?

 

[GulAtiCa]

A mainline Kingdom Hearts on a console could do those numbers.

Wasn't the last Kingdom Hearts on a console, mainline or not, Kingdom Hearts 2 way back for PS2? I wonder if the Kingdom Hearts 1.5 or eventual 3 will do well after all these years.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

They most certainly did not. I have the receipts to prove it.

Sony raised their own MSRP from $40 to more variable pricing up to $50.

Across the board, no, not every PS1 game got more expensive. But Sony did once try to make the median price lower and then raised it.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Just realized, we need some DS/Wii U fight GIFs in here!

Someone go alter the GBA/PS3 fight gifs from 2007 lol

 

[Version 3.0]

I'm wondering if he meant N64 and wrote PS1. N64 games got more expensive as the cartridge sizes went up in the generation.[/b]

No, they didn't, either. The standard MSRP on both came down, though there may be some specific games that were more. Again, I have receipts.

Sony raised their own MSRP from $40 to more variable pricing up to $50.

Across the board, no, not every PS1 game got more expensive. But Sony did once try to make the median price lower and then raised it.

At launch, all PS1 games were $59.99. If Sony went to $40 to $50, it was only after they'd dropped from $60 to $50 to $40.

edit: I do recall what you're talking about. I believe that was in response to them undercutting 3rd parties' MSRP of $50, something Nintendo also did (being $10 less than 3rd party games). Sony (re)raised their own published games to be in line with that.

edit2: Here are a couple of receipts I stuck up on my site a long time ago, when I had this same conversation with other people who incorrectly recall those days:

Jumping Flash, a Sony-published game, a month after release, 60 bucks.

Resident Evil, at release, 60 bucks.

Mario Kart 64, at release, 70 bucks.

Shadows of the Empire, a few months after release, 80 bucks.

In that old conversation, I was accused of the incredible stupidity of paying above MSRP. Please don't do that. It's absurd.

 

[donny2112]

Shadows of the Empire, a few months after release, 80 bucks.

I guess it's panned nowadays, but I really enjoyed that game. Working up to Jedi difficulty (Hard was harder than Jedi, due to how they set it up) was great. Really had to know the levels and boss patterns to make it through. One of the games worth keeping an N64 around for (e.g. Goldeneye, Turok for the codes, Perfect Dark used to be before the XBLA version).

 

[mujun]

From what I found on Wiki looks like Ni no Kuni did like 300k WW. Could it even be close to profitable with numbers like that?

 

[perfectchaos007]

I'm not sure who exactly is going to be making anymore 3DS games though

Looking at Nintendo's 1st parties we have
EAD1- Mario Kart Wii U
EAD2- Just Finished Nintendo Land and Animal Crossing, probably starting on a Wii U animal crossing
EAD3- Possibly could get Zelda out there for 3DS, but I don't think it will be ready until next year, and if it is revealed at E3 I don't see it being released the same year
EAD4- Still can't get Pikmin 3 out the door, also just finished NSMB2 and NSMBU
EAD5- Wii Fit U is going out the door this year
Intelligent Systems- Just finshed Paper Mario, presumably working on Fire EmblemxSMT, maybe enough staff for an Advance Wars or new IP?
Monolith- possible 3DS game could be out in Japan this year, but no way it is in America or could be considered a holiday game
Camelot- Mario Golf
Retro- probably understaffed as it is for their Wii U game
Good Feel- Yoshi Land
Alpha Dream- Mario and Luigi
EAD Tokyo- 3D Mario Wii U
Next Level- as long as it took to get LM2 out...no

The big one I haven't mentioned is Monster and they could possibly have a new racing game which is believable

what about Genius Sonority? They finished Pokemon typing DS a couple years ago, so they're due for something soon. Hopefully Pokemon Colosseum U

 

[Mooreberg]

DMC4 to DmC will go down as one of the most awkward transitions for a gaming brand ever. What the hell gave Capcom the impression that a reboot within the same hardware cycle would generate better sales? The result is so far in the opposite direction that it would be laughable if it wasn't completely predictable.

 

[Version 3.0]

I guess it's panned nowadays, but I really enjoyed that game. Working up to Jedi difficulty (Hard was harder than Jedi, due to how they set it up) was great. Really had to know the levels and boss patterns to make it through. One of the games worth keeping an N64 around for (e.g. Goldeneye, Turok for the codes, Perfect Dark used to be before the XBLA version).

Yeah, I loved it back then, and even in more recent plays, I thought it was fine.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I'm not sure who exactly is going to be making anymore 3DS games though

Looking at Nintendo's 1st parties we have
EAD1- Mario Kart Wii U
EAD2- Just Finished Nintendo Land and Animal Crossing, probably starting on a Wii U animal crossing
EAD3- Possibly could get Zelda out there for 3DS, but I don't think it will be ready until next year, and if it is revealed at E3 I don't see it being released the same year
EAD4- Still can't get Pikmin 3 out the door, also just finished NSMB2 and NSMBU
EAD5- Wii Fit U is going out the door this year
Intelligent Systems- Just finshed Paper Mario, presumably working on Fire EmblemxSMT, maybe enough staff for an Advance Wars or new IP?
Monolith- possible 3DS game could be out in Japan this year, but no way it is in America or could be considered a holiday game
Camelot- Mario Golf
Retro- probably understaffed as it is for their Wii U game
Good Feel- Yoshi Land
Alpha Dream- Mario and Luigi
EAD Tokyo- 3D Mario Wii U
Next Level- as long as it took to get LM2 out...no

The big one I haven't mentioned is Monster and they could possibly have a new racing game which is believable

So basically everyone is working on iterations of the same franchises over and over again.

I don't see Mario Kart or Zelda saving the WiiU. A price cut should help it down the line, but ultimately we're looking at another Gamecube situation where Nintendo is isolated from the rest of the market, and in last place. The system will get plenty of 360 ports but next gen games will likely be focused on the PS4/next Xbox, meaning there will be very little incentive or reason to buy anything on the WiiU outside of Nintendo games.

Nintendo had a small window of opportunity where they needed to sell a lot of hardware and reassure third parties. That window has virtually closed with the PS4's reveal on the horizon, and no new (or big) WiiU games coming out soon. This thing will limp until it gets a price cut imo. If the PS4/next Xbox don't launch at some ridiculous price, I honestly think the WiiU will be finished.

 

[Glass Rebel]

I'm not sure who exactly is going to be making anymore 3DS games though

Looking at Nintendo's 1st parties we have
EAD1- Mario Kart Wii U
EAD2- Just Finished Nintendo Land and Animal Crossing, probably starting on a Wii U animal crossing
EAD3- Possibly could get Zelda out there for 3DS, but I don't think it will be ready until next year, and if it is revealed at E3 I don't see it being released the same year
EAD4- Still can't get Pikmin 3 out the door, also just finished NSMB2 and NSMBU
EAD5- Wii Fit U is going out the door this year
Intelligent Systems- Just finshed Paper Mario, presumably working on Fire EmblemxSMT, maybe enough staff for an Advance Wars or new IP?
Monolith- possible 3DS game could be out in Japan this year, but no way it is in America or could be considered a holiday game
Camelot- Mario Golf
Retro- probably understaffed as it is for their Wii U game
Good Feel- Yoshi Land
Alpha Dream- Mario and Luigi
EAD Tokyo- 3D Mario Wii U
Next Level- as long as it took to get LM2 out...no

The big one I haven't mentioned is Monster and they could possibly have a new racing game which is believable

Treasure is working on a 3DS game which might be co-developed with Nintendo like Sin & Punishment 2.

Creatures Inc. who worked on the Poképark and Pokémon Ranger games could have something for 3DS. Their games are shit though.

HAL is probably working on Kirby for the 3DS.

IntSys is also working on Game & Wario for Wii U so depending on the scope of FExSMT and Atlus' involvement I think it'll be a while until they release a retail 3DS game. For all we know they still could have a team working on a 3DS game. Or not.

Brownie Brown/1-Up is helping with a game as well, most likely for 3DS.

Grezzo could be doing the grunt work for Majora's Mask 3D (assuming it exists).

Looking at the scale of X, Monolith working on a 3DS game as well, at least in any meaningful capacity, seems unrealistic. Unless it's the Project X Zone team.

Monster I'm not sure about. They don't seem to be big enough for HD development but it's hard to really know. Finger's crossed for F-Zero I guess.

Genius Sonority's output has mostly been Pokémon games or some small-scale stuff. I think they might be working on a Wii U companion game for Pokémon X&Y.

Paon seems to be a safe contender but they haven't developed any games for Nintendo in a while.

So basically everyone is working on iterations of the same franchises over and over again.

I don't see Mario Kart or Zelda saving the WiiU. A price cut should help it down the line, but ultimately we're looking at another Gamecube situation where Nintendo is isolated from the rest of the market, and in last place. The system will get plenty of 360 ports but next gen games will likely be focused on the PS4/next Xbox, meaning there will be very little incentive or reason to buy anything on the WiiU outside of Nintendo games.

Nintendo had a small window of opportunity where they needed to sell a lot of hardware and reassure third parties. That window has virtually closed with the PS4's reveal on the horizon, and no new (or big) WiiU games coming out soon. This thing will limp until it gets a price cut imo. If the PS4/next Xbox don't launch at some ridiculous price, I honestly think the WiiU will be finished.

It'll be interesting to see how this E3 plays out for them. If Mario Kart comes out this year and doesn't turn it around somewhat, the console is done.

 

[leroidys]

I'm wondering if Smash will make it out this year. If nintendo is planning on showing it at E3, it makes me think that it is progressing nicely.

 

[AniHawk]

I'm wondering if Smash will make it out this year. If nintendo is planning on showing it at E3, it makes me think that it is progressing nicely.

if they want to reach the profit they claim they'll reach, it will have to be out before march is through next year.

i kinda wonder if tekken vs. street fighter is mia due to namco bandai working on this game. i have no idea how the teams break down in there though.