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[Celine]

@JVM

fuck yeah, finally found the graph I remember Nintendo put out a couple of years ago with the top software of the generation in US (as of September 2010):

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/101029/06.html

So GTA IV for Xbox 360 seems to have sold around 3.75M (too bad the PS3 version sold less and didn't chart but at least you can be sure most of the sales came from the first year).
There is probably a thread on GAF with the pixel counting.

Wii owners didn't buy games confirmed !!!

----

Also since we are at it:
Top 10 Wii games as February 2012 in US:

• Wii Play (13.06 million)
• Mario Kart Wii (11.3 million)
• New Super Mario Bros. Wii (8.86 million)
• Wii Fit (8.18 million)
• Wii Fit Plus (7.32 million)
• Wii Sports Resort (6.45 million)
• Just Dance 2 (5.61) million
• Super Smash Bros. Brawl (5.43 million)
• Super Mario Galaxy (5.04 million)
• Just Dance 3 (4.61 million)

http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2012/03/super_mario_galaxy_blasts_past_5_million_milestone

 

[DasMarcos]

So considering Wii U has ONE game (Fist of the North Star) releasing in February... what kind of numbers can we expect for this month? Can it possibly go lower than 57K?

Should be a big month for Nintendo. By big I mean don't let it drop below 57k for the love of God.

 

[A Human Becoming]

The legs on Wii Play, Mario Kart DS and New Super Mario Bros. DS are astounding; true evergreen titles. The latter two are definition system sellers.

 

[Road]

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/101029/06.html

Just one think to be aware is that I'm not sure if Nintendo combined all editions of the same game (e.g. Halo 3 and Halo 3 Limited Edition).

 

[PhoenixDark]

So considering Wii U has ONE game (Fist of the North Star) releasing in February... what kind of numbers can we expect for this month? Can it possibly go lower than 57K?

45k is possible; there's literally no reason to buy a WiiU. Rigt now it's basically an Xbox 360 without Live or games. That can be fixed but I still believe the system's window has closed.

 

[BlackJace]

45k is possible; there's literally no reason to buy a WiiU. Rigt now it's basically an Xbox 360 without Live or games. That can be fixed but I still believe the system's window has closed.

Closed for what?

 

[TheSeks]

Closed for what?

Come on...

PS4/X720.

 

[Plinko]

Oh I think it will easily be less than 45k. I think we could actually see 35k.

 

[BlackJace]

Come on...

PS4/X720.

Ok? Are we assuming they will be successes?
He said he believes the system's window has closed. That sounded vague so I'm asking him to explain what that particular window is.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Closed for what?

The system had a window to establish itself in the eyes of customers and publishers before the PS4/760 release. Nintendo had less time than MS did to win people over before the PS3's release, they had no time to fuck up.

I think the system will be GameCube status once the other systems arrive now. IMO with a flurry of software and a good online system it could have carved a nice part of the market besides Nintendo fans, but that chance is done. The system is a punch line, it's hard to come back from that.

 

[BlackJace]

The system had a window to establish itself in the eyes of customers and publishers before the PS4/760 release. Nintendo had less time than MS did to win people over before the PS3's release, they had no time to fuck up.

I think the system will be GameCube status once the other systems arrive now. IMO with a flurry of software and a good online system it could have carved a nice part of the market besides Nintendo fans, but that chance is done. The system is a punch line, it's hard to come back from that.

I see. I still believe they have some things up their sleeves that can begin to turn things around.

They have effectively blown their year head-start though.

 

[Baconsammy]

What does this even mean? Who gives a crap about the case design?

It doesn't have games that non-nintendo gamers want and lacks thde hook of better graphics to bring them in early.

Pretty sure he meant that people think the Wii U is the Wii with a new controller. Nintendo's done an incredibly shitty job at making people think otherwise. Same mistake they made with the 3DS they made again with the Wii U. Similar name as the previous device, similar hardware profile.

 

[TheSeks]

Ok? Are we assuming they will be successes?

Based on what Nintendo is offering in comparison? Yeah. Will they be runaway "Wii" successes? That remains to be seen.

He said he believes the system's window has closed. That sounded vague so I'm asking him to explain what that particular window is.

And I answered what he'd tell you: The system is not gaining traction and the PS4/X720 announcements/releases looms. Consumers simply do not want a "next-gen"/current-generation system from Nintendo with sub-par online services and it shows in sales.

(And I see he's basically repeating what I'm already telling you, so...)

 

[Soriku]

And I answered what he'd tell you: The system is not gaining traction and the PS4/X720 announcements/releases looms. Consumers simply do not want a "next-gen"/current-generation system from Nintendo with sub-par online services and it shows in sales.

(And I see he's basically repeating what I'm already telling you, so...)

Are you sure that's the reason or is the fact that it has no worthwhile, exclusive games a bigger one?

 

[BlackJace]

Based on what Nintendo is offering in comparison? Yeah. Will they be runaway "Wii" successes? That remains to be seen.




And I answered what he'd tell you: The system is not gaining traction and the PS4/X720 announcements/releases looms. Consumers simply do not want a "next-gen"/current-generation system from Nintendo with sub-par online services and it shows in sales.

(And I see he's basically repeating what I'm already telling you, so...)

Eh, again, it's too early. The PS3 had a rough year, and now its looking pretty stable. Nintendo hasn't dropped its best software, and its online infrastructure is getting updates soon I believe.

As for the thing about consumers not wanting it, I think it stems from consumers not knowing exactly what the hell it is. If they do some actual advertisements, that should change.

They made some pretty bone-headed moves, but nothing fatal.

 

[TheWon]

It's pretty clear that Microsoft will be the only console that will be able cater to both groups of the consumer market. Nintendo will still have their loyal base, but fail to capture others who want certain 3rd party games. Nintendo also needs to get back the expanded gamers the found with the Wii. Sony with their recent talk of true gamers. They are going after only their loyal Sony brand lovers. So for the Wii U even if it's the Gamecube of this generation. It not going to matter since the overall market will be almost half of the past generation. I can see the winning console selling 50 to 60 systems world wide. If the Wii U can get 30 to 40 by comparison. I wouldn't call that too much of a major loss!

 

[big youth]

saying Wii U might reach GC levels is a super low expectation. I'm surprised how common that expectation is here, because I feel confident in saying that is the worst case scenario for Wii U. the market has expanded since then, Wii is a strong brand, tablets are popular, etc

we're still at a stage where most people don't know what Wii U is, so it's natural sales are slow. in the future popular games like Zelda, 3D Mario, Mario Kart and Smash Bros could all have very impressive commercials (and reviews) that would drive sales. this might seem like a silly statement, but remember that these games will be in HD for the first time, should be more ambitious in scope, online should be better than ever, and the controls will be traditional. the potential for these games is higher than ever before.

along with the aforementioned games, Retros games, X, Bayonetta 2, etc will secure the hardcore audience that GC had, while blue ocean games (unannounced, but coming) have the potential to make Wii U a Wii-like success.

 

[big youth]

It's pretty clear that Microsoft will be the only console that will be able cater to both groups of the consumer market. Nintendo will still have their loyal base, but fail to capture others who want certain 3rd party games. Nintendo also needs to get back the expanded gamers the found with the Wii. Sony with their recent talk of true gamers. They are going after only their loyal Sony brand lovers. So for the Wii U even if it's the Gamecube of this generation. It not going to matter since the overall market will be almost half of the past generation. I can see the winning console selling 50 to 60 systems world wide. If the Wii U can get 30 to 40 by comparison. I wouldn't call that too much of a major loss!

....so you think this gen will be the lowest selling since the 16 bit era? I really don't see the logic in that. last gen was an anomaly due to the Wii, but it doesn't mean the videogame market has now shrunk, or isn't expanding every year. kids are born into it now, while those who would never touch it are dying off.

 

[onipex]

Based on what Nintendo is offering in comparison? Yeah. Will they be runaway "Wii" successes? That remains to be seen.

I have my doubts after the PS4 reveal since it will be selling off streaming tech the market already rejected, better graphics , and what looks like a kinect ripoff. The Vita shows that Sony didn't learn from the PSP so it is hard to put faith in this next launch. What the next Xbox is remains to be seen but going into the next gen with more momentum does not always equal success.

Nintendo has months to get their marketing right and games out. Even by some chance the PS4 or Xbox3 have a Wii like start the Wii U still has a chance to build a respectable user base .

 

[Kimawolf]

Well lets not forget these systems sold so much because two main players couldn't afford to release their next generation system in the normal five year plan. They are almost to 8 years and they along with tons of publishers needed the extra time to try to make money. I think the wii U is a precursor to what's to come, and I think because of it, expect a longer generation once more if the industry doesn't suffer a massive shrinkage.

 

[jvm]

BEST-SELLING US GAME SOFTWARE: JAN. 2000-AUG. 2009

RANK / TITLE (YEAR) / PLATFORM(S) / UNIT SALES

1 / Wii Play with Remote (2006) / Wii / 11.1 million
2 / Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (2007) / PS2, PS3, Wii, Xbox 360 / 10.3 million
3 / Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (2004) / PS2, Xbox/ 9.8 million
4 / Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (2007) / DS, PS3, Xbox 360 / 8.5 million
5 / Wii Fit with Balance Board (2008) / Wii / 7.9 million
6 / Madden NFL 07 (2006) / GC, GBA, PSP, PS2, PS3, Wii, Xbox, Xbox 360
7/ Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (2002) / PS2, Xbox
8 / Madden NFL 08 (2007) / GC, PSP, PS2, PS3, Wii, Xbox, Xbox 360,
9 / Call of Duty: World at War (2008) / DS, PS3, Xbox 360, Wii
10 / Halo 2 (2004) / Xbox

http://www.gamespot.com/news/wii-play-guitar-hero-iii-top-games-of-2000sso-far-6233163

---
Does it help?

@JVM

fuck yeah, finally found the graph I remember Nintendo put out a couple of years ago with the top software of the generation in US (as of September 2010):

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/101029/06.html

So GTA IV for Xbox 360 seems to have sold around 3.75M (too bad the PS3 version sold less and didn't chart but at least you can be sure most of the sales came from the first year).
There is probably a thread on GAF with the pixel counting.

Wii owners didn't buy games confirmed !!!

----

Also since we are at it:
Top 10 Wii games as February 2012 in US:

• Wii Play (13.06 million)
• Mario Kart Wii (11.3 million)
• New Super Mario Bros. Wii (8.86 million)
• Wii Fit (8.18 million)
• Wii Fit Plus (7.32 million)
• Wii Sports Resort (6.45 million)
• Just Dance 2 (5.61) million
• Super Smash Bros. Brawl (5.43 million)
• Super Mario Galaxy (5.04 million)
• Just Dance 3 (4.61 million)

http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2012/03/super_mario_galaxy_blasts_past_5_million_milestone

These posts were gold. Thank you, Celine. As the old saying goes, GAF delivers.

 

[Opiate]

The system had a window to establish itself in the eyes of customers and publishers before the PS4/760 release. Nintendo had less time than MS did to win people over before the PS3's release, they had no time to fuck up.

I think the system will be GameCube status once the other systems arrive now. IMO with a flurry of software and a good online system it could have carved a nice part of the market besides Nintendo fans, but that chance is done. The system is a punch line, it's hard to come back from that.

I largely agree. I would say "modest success" is still plausible, but even that is no sure thing. PS3/360 success is out the window, and Wii success is so far gone as to not even be worth talking about.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Eh, again, it's too early. The PS3 had a rough year, and now its looking pretty stable.

The PS3 had the weight of the entire industry behind it, despite its "rough year(s)." Because publishers were in too deep not to just stay the course.

The Wii U does not share this benefit.

 

[BlackJace]

The PS3 had the weight of the entire industry behind it, despite its "rough year(s)." Because publishers were in too deep not to just stay the course.

The Wii U does not share this benefit.

Could you elaborate?

 

[Opiate]

The PS3 had the weight of the entire industry behind it, despite its "rough year(s)." Because publishers were in too deep not to just stay the course.

The Wii U does not share this benefit.

Absolutely. Also, Sony subsidized the system with 5 Billion dollars. I'm sure the Wii U could have a larger install base too if Nintendo were willing to bleed money for years here. A price cut to 200 would move a lot of systems.

I'm not saying they should do that, mind you. Just noting that the PS3 had the dual benefits of the entire industry + Sony spending lots of money.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

The PS3 had the weight of the entire industry behind it, despite its "rough year(s)." Because publishers were in too deep not to just stay the course.

The Wii U does not share this benefit.

On the other hand, the Wii U has a strong first party which Sony did not really avail themselves of for much of the generation. Outside of a few titles, they're not really strong sellers, mostly (quality) library floaters.

Then again, I am also pretty pessimistic the Wii U can bounce back.

 

[pieatorium]

On the other hand, the Wii U has a strong first party which Sony did not really avail themselves of for much of the generation. Outside of a few titles, they're not really strong sellers, mostly (quality) library floaters.

Then again, I am also pretty pessimistic the Wii U can bounce back.

Gamecube had that same strong first party though

 

[Opiate]

Could you elaborate?

I want you to compare EA/Activision/Ubisoft/Take 2's investments in the PS3/360 to their investment in the Wii. We don't have a way to gauge that precisely, but it's pretty obvious to everyone that they backed the PS3/360 much, much harder than they did the Wii. EA even admitted this openly, saying they "backed the wrong horse" with the PS3 back in 2009.

Games like GTA IV, FFXIII, Metal Gear Solid, Bioshock and Call of Duty were already in development for the PS3/360 before the Wii had even launched. One could realistically say that the Wii never had a chance to win over the major publishers, no matter how much it sold. They had already heavily invested in the PS3/360 before the Wii had sold a single unit.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Gamecube had that same strong first party though

It did.

It's one factor, perhaps a major one, but not the only one.

The Wii succeeded partly because of first party output but also because they had the wind at their backs with that particularly venture.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Could you elaborate?

Practically every publisher was heavily invested in PS3/HD development.

Absolutely. Also, Sony subsidized the system with 5 Billion dollars. I'm sure the Wii U could have a larger install base too if Nintendo were willing to bleed money for years here. A price cut to 200 would move a lot of systems.

I'm not saying they should do that, mind you. Just noting that the PS3 had the dual benefits of the entire industry + Sony spending lots of money.

Yes. True. Money that likely wouldn't have been needed to such an extent had they not overengineered the system and pushed BluRay. I don't think anyone can deny the execution of the PS3 was severely flawed.

A price cut to $200 would move a lot more systems than currently - but without a Wii Sports phenomenon, I'm not certain it would necessarily compete well against the ecosystems built by the PS360, nor the weight of publishers being behind the PS4720.

 

[Opiate]

A price cut to $200 would move a lot more systems than currently - but without a Wii Sports phenomenon, I'm not certain it would necessarily compete well against the ecosystems built by the PS360, nor the weight of publishers being behind the PS4720.

Totally agree. Speaking vaguely, I suspect it would take the Wii U from "really bad" to "mediocre." The price is only one of the Wii U's problems.

 

[Kai Dracon]

With how things look for the moment, I kind of expect Wii U to be another N64, though possibly slightly better off in terms of what 3rd party games it does get.

I would be surprised if it doesn't outsell the Gamecube by a decent margin, and like N64 is likely to get major exclusive games that will be very noteworthy and turn heads. Sometimes I think Nintendo fans forget how isolated the Gamecube seemed back in the day. It was pretty much ignored, people generally didn't care about the 1st party Nintendo titles existing. Outside Metroid Prime garnering general awareness, and Resident Evil 4 being noticed due to the sheer hype surrounding it.

There are probably going to be quite a few games that get attention on Wii U once things get up to speed. I'm getting the feeling that, barring a sudden breakout hit title with the mainstream that majorly drives system sales, Nintendo's best bet will be doing all they can to make Wii U a foundation for their big transition. (Getting out of the console hardware race / pretending that 3rd party Big Pub is going to be interested in working with them fully, regardless of what kind of hardware they put out.)

 

[pieatorium]

It did.

It's one factor, perhaps a major one, but not the only one.

The Wii succeeded partly because of first party output but also because they had the wind at their backs with that particularly venture.

The Wii Succeeded because motion controls was new and easily demonstrateable in a cool way. The same way guitar hero/rock band blew up as far as a controller that is a mimic of something that actually exists. It's easy for people to understand it because it does something they have experience in doing.

I think it's fairly clear that that audience has either moved on to other devices or is content to keep playing Just Dance on the Wii once a year.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

The Wii Succeeded because motion controls was new and easily demonstrateable in a cool way. The same way guitar hero/rock band blew up as far as a controller that is a mimic of something that actually exists. It's easy for people to understand it because it does something they have experience in doing.

I think it's fairly clear that that audience has either moved on to other devices or is content to keep playing Just Dance on the Wii once a year.

You really think that it would have succeeded without Nintendo software?

In that case, I disagree.

 

[prag16]

Based on what Nintendo is offering in comparison? Yeah. Will they be runaway "Wii" successes? That remains to be seen.

Runaway Wii successes?? Ha! The ceiling for these machines is PS360 numbers ground out over years. What the heck is gonna give them broad Wii-like appeal??

And Nintendo doesn't need to sell 100 million to be successful. The gamecube sold 20 some odd million units and was vastly more profitable than the PS3 and original Xbox (both big money losers, especially PS3).

 

[CTLance]

A price cut to $200 would move a lot more systems than currently - but without a Wii Sports phenomenon, I'm not certain it would necessarily compete well against the ecosystems built by the PS360, nor the weight of publishers being behind the PS4720.

I think it would also poison the well for Nintendo. Sure, the early adopters will get thrown a bone, but establishing the precedent that half a year after initial release there will be a harsh price cut will probably train their customers to forego said initial release - which would severely handicap future launches.


Still amazed how Nintendo with all their experience could fuck up a launch that badly... not only once (3DS), but twice.

 

[pieatorium]

You really think that it would have succeeded without Nintendo software?

In that case, I disagree.

It would be impossible for the Software to exist without the hardware to back it up, the other two weren't interested until Nintendo already showed the potential popularity.

If some other quality motion control device had beaten it to market (eyetoy isn't a thing and never very compareable), lets just say the Move was a PS2 peripheral I think it would have been a breakout hit in the same way as guitar hero and that the Wii wouldn't have been remotely close to the success it turned out to be.

The Wii Sports being a hit drove the easily accessible Nintendo franchises (2d Mario and Mario Kart) to the heights they saw this gen. The mainstream didn't buy Wii's for those games they bought those games because they had a Wii Sports machine that could play other games.

I think this is fairly evident by their more "core" games like 3d Mario, Smash and Zelda not doing much more and sometimes even a bit less than the versions of those games on their previous systems despite the insane difference in install bases.

 

[onipex]

Absolutely. Also, Sony subsidized the system with 5 Billion dollars. I'm sure the Wii U could have a larger install base too if Nintendo were willing to bleed money for years here. A price cut to 200 would move a lot of systems.

I'm not saying they should do that, mind you. Just noting that the PS3 had the dual benefits of the entire industry + Sony spending lots of money.

If Nintendo is willing to take a bigger hit I think they should do it by money hating third party support to make sure they have a good third party lineup this holiday and through next year.

 

[shinra-bansho]

You really think that it would have succeeded without Nintendo software?

In that case, I disagree.

It probably would have still succeeded without Nintendo's traditional franchises. Although ymmv, on what constitutes success I suppose.

 

[big youth]

Runaway Wii successes?? Ha! The ceiling for these machines is PS360 numbers ground out over years. What the heck is gonna give them broad Wii-like appeal??

And Nintendo doesn't need to sell 100 million to be successful. The gamecube sold 20 some odd million units and was vastly more profitable than the PS3 and original Xbox (both big money losers, especially PS3).

I don't think this is true. Nintendo was far more profitable during that gen, sure, but that's primarily because of the GBA

 

[InsaneZero]

Speaking of third-parties, I'm really curious as to the reasons why Iwata was so confident in the third parties' willingness to develop for the Wii U that he would risk being in the situation that they are in now.

 

[BlackJace]

I want you to compare EA/Activision/Ubisoft/Take 2's investments in the PS3/360 to their investment in the Wii. We don't have a way to gauge that precisely, but it's pretty obvious to everyone that they backed the PS3/360 much, much harder than they did the Wii. EA even admitted this openly, saying they "backed the wrong horse" with the PS3 back in 2009.

Games like GTA IV, FFXIII, Metal Gear Solid, Bioshock and Call of Duty were already in development for the PS3/360 before the Wii had even launched. One could realistically say that the Wii never had a chance to win over the major publishers, no matter how much it sold. They had already heavily invested in the PS3/360 before the Wii had sold a single unit.

Practically every publisher was heavily invested in PS3/HD development.

Yes. True. Money that likely wouldn't have been needed to such an extent had they not overengineered the system and pushed BluRay. I don't think anyone can deny the execution of the PS3 was severely flawed.

A price cut to $200 would move a lot more systems than currently - but without a Wii Sports phenomenon, I'm not certain it would necessarily compete well against the ecosystems built by the PS360, nor the weight of publishers being behind the PS4720.

Ah okay, thank you both. Am I being a bit too optimistic? Maybe.

 

[prag16]

MS and Sony haven't sold a single gen 8 unit. Nintendo certainly stumbled out of the blocks but the race has hardly begun. It's too soon to write an epitaph.

Don't hold your breath for them to go third party. Absurd that some seem to see that as a foregone conclusion. They'd probably sooner go handheld only. (the 4DS will probably have strong enough hardware that you could use it as a quasi console with TV out and it'd look serviceable enough.)

 

[big youth]

You state this as fact due to one damn month of terrible sales? You've gotta be kidding me...

glad to see I'm not the only one here avoiding sensationalism.

 

[pieatorium]

You state this as fact due to one damn month of terrible sales? You've gotta be kidding me...

One moth of sales more terrible than the PS3 or 360 ever got to and more terrible than the gamecube at the same period in the lifecycle.

 

[prag16]

One moth of sales more terrible than the PS3 or 360 ever got to and more terrible than the gamecube at the same period in the lifecycle.

Yup and that guarantees long term failure and 3rd party Nintendo. Silly me. How'd I miss that certain and objective fact.

Seriously though gamecube is probably a bad comparison. It had a pretty good launch, then fell off a cliff after awhile.

 

[big youth]

One moth of sales more terrible than the PS3 or 360 ever got to and more terrible than the gamecube at the same period in the lifecycle.

but why is this 1 month of horrible sales going to doom Wii U to GC level of sales? are you expecting publishers to turn their back because of 1 or 2 months of poor sales? what is your logic?

sales will pick up when major games start releasing in March/April and Nintendo starts their second wave of advertising. Iwata has said they are working on blue ocean games along the lines of Brain Age, Nintendogs, and Wii Sports, so who knows how high the ceiling is?

 

[Effect]

Not excepting any major change for the positive in the numbers until we get closer to E3 where we'll see a relaunch of the system with playable versions of 3D Mario, Mario Kart, whatever Retro is working on and whatever else there is. A playble version of Watch_Dogs is something else that could (I hope) appear if it is indeed coming out at the end of 2013. Nintendo simply doesn't have anything coming out right now that can move the needle. Until they do I don't expect them to start advertising the system. Something they currently are not doing.

Yes there is Lego City Undercover but I'm honestly torn on that. It looks like it could be a great game. However I do not have faith that they'll advertise it as well as they should. Now if between now and it's release they start giving dates to titles so they have things releasing in April, May, and June then I might feel better. I would still expect a relaunch at E3 but it could be seen as ramping up to that.

 

[Brashnir]

Yup and that guarantees long term failure and 3rd party Nintendo. Silly me. How'd I miss that certain and objective fact.

Seriously though gamecube is probably a bad comparison. It had a pretty good launch, then fell off a cliff after awhile.

and yet it never fell to this level until the month before the Wii launched.

 

[pieatorium]

Yup and that guarantees long term failure and 3rd party Nintendo. Silly me. How'd I miss that certain and objective fact.

Seriously though gamecube is probably a bad comparison. It had a pretty good launch, then fell off a cliff after awhile.

He never said long term failure and even said moderate success is still on the cards.

The Gamecube is the best comparison we have actually. Good first months in a holiday launch immediately followed by cratering sales.

but why is this 1 month of horrible sales going to doom Wii U to GC level of sales? are you expecting publishers to turn their back because of 1 or 2 months of poor sales? what is your logic?

because it is tracking the exact same path as the gamecube (actually a little bit behind) a million ish in the first 2 months of NPD followed by a massive drop into sub 70k

sales will pick up when major games start releasing in March/April and Nintendo starts their second wave of advertising. Iwata has said they are working on blue ocean games along the lines of Brain Age, Nintendogs, and Wii Sports, so who knows how high the ceiling is?

There are no Major games coming until much later in the year, Pikmin isn't a mainstream franchise.

Brain age and nintendogs tanked on 3ds, i don't think another Wii Sports is going to get people to buy a WiiU when they already have 2 Wii Sports (and probably other 3rd party knockoffs) in their closet.