Support NeoGAF

[C4Lukins]

So basically it was a good month for the three companies right?? So glad to see Wii U in particular doing really good. It's best so far actually! Here's hope the console can walk peacefully and earn aceptable profits from now on to Nintendo.

No it was still bad for Nintendo, but it is not completely hopeless. If they were smart they would create a true Pokemon game for the system. And then make Amiibos for all 300 plus characters and sell them to to the hordes. It wont happen, but that would save the Wii U.

And what do Nintendo fans have to look forward to on the system? You already have the big three In Mario, Smash, and Mario Kart. Zelda and Star Fox are going to turn things around? Hell I will buy the system next year because I enjoy good games, but the huddeled masses are not going to suddenly jump up and make the system a succes.

 

[The Shogun]

yup. I mean the system can be profitable, but I always do like to play around with folk who keep calling this a turnaround. This is not a turnaround by any conceivable stretch of the imagination. This is just the Hindenburg disaster in slower motion is all.

I love the Wii U, but my gosh the system is going to top out optimistically at what at this point worldwide? 15 million? 16? I can't even figure how we can stretch it much further at this point

Yeah the Wii U in terms of business strategy cannot be looked at as anything other than a colossal failure. Especially after the incredible success of the Wii. I really hope Ninty have more luck next go around because their software is some of the best in the industry.

 

[RespectThySole]

Also - NPD doesn't count digital sales.

The digital sales for Driveclub probably don't account for much as it wasn't in the PS Store's bestsellers for Nov. or Dec.

 

[Inuhanyou]

If its 1 million 1 hundred thou for Sony last month, they are within striking distance of Xbone sales in December, even with the fallout from the pricecut and crazy deals still in effect MS had to do. And they had to slash the price just now(permanent?), which probably means they were getting beaten in January.

This certainly won't be a 360 domination at all in US, and it'll probably remain even on the whole, especially considering the amount of content coming out for PS4 this year which will likely see more than a few months go to Sony in the end.

Unfortunately for MS, that's a horrible result considering their barely keeping pace with Sony last gen was only due to absolutely destroying them in the US and UK consistently(like double the sales every month for 2 years in a row in the US).

If PS4 and XB1 stay on the whole even in the US with neither completely dominating, Sony just makes up the difference and blazes past in the rest of the world.

Wow. That really puts things into perspective. Congrats, Bayo 2, for actually doing decent when stacked up against the PS360 original in NA.

To be fair to 360 and PS3 sales, the Bayonetta pedigree was not a thing at the time the original game came out. By the time people bought it for being a good game, it was already able to be purchased easily used. Bayo2 is riding on the hype of Bayo 1's quality, and its own expectation which is completely deserved btw.

 

[freefornow]

Kinda shocked at Driveclubs numbers. The sheer volume of DC threads has distorted my perception of what the sales would be. Mostly european posters?

Edit: Is 84k December or lifetime?

 

[The Shogun]

No way. Without another Mario Kart or Smash Bros. title, the system is coasting bad. Those were -the- biggest guns the Wii U was likely to have left. Zelda has never to my understanding been a sales beast like those series, at least not since the N64 days. I think the year will be better in terms of game output, but unless Nintendo aggressively cuts the price at some point this year (and my God how long are they really going to wait?), they're not gonna even match their 2014

I think there's a fair chance it'll be significantly under 2014 if it doesn't get a price cut, if you can believe that.

I'm referring strictly to software total sales YoY not hardware if I wasn't clear on that sorry.

 

[le.phat]

Drive Club? Bad reviews and a lack of marketing....

Driveub can easily survive without the US. The leaderboards show over 600k useres global. Perks being on Ps4 i guess.

 

[Chobel]

Kinda shocked at Driveclubs numbers. The sheer volume of DC threads has distorted my perception of what the sales would be. Mostly european posters?

Mostly the same posters making many posts.

Edit: Is 84k December or lifetime?

Lifetime in US

 

[Takuhi]

> 890K, 4 ~ 56%

Bless you for this.

 

[astrogamer]

So how did that Disney Magical World game do LTD wise

 

[Anth0ny]

Look GAF, you can actually pinpoint the second when my heart rips in half!

B2 < 135k

 

[BlackBuzzard]

Kinda shocked at Driveclubs numbers. The sheer volume of DC threads has distorted my perception of what the sales would be. Mostly european posters?

Edit: Is 84k December or lifetime?

Neogaf is the home of Drivecult.

 

[Mass Effect]

Capy not being committed to a date. We may find out Ori on Tuesday as well, Ken Lobb said Feb or March

Okay cool. I hope it's sooner rather than later. I really want to try and play both of these games before Bloodborne, The Witcher, and Batman hit. Otherwise, they'll have to go on the backburner

Lobb said February-March for Ori. No clue about Below, but most assume it's a 1H release. And I get that the U.S. is niche for racers, but the difference between it and FH2 is staggering. It's not like FH2 sold that well either. I guess the negative word of mouth really hurt it.

Yeah it did. Forza, unlike Driveclub, wasn't a broken pile of shit at launch. Plus Microsoft actually marketed the game (advertising your exclusives, Sony... ever heard of it?!) and it received more favorable reviews.

Not that this means anything, but if I owned an Xbox One, I'd most assuredly be playing Horizon 2 right now. I probably would have bought it at launch. Can't say the same for Driveclub unfortunately. Maybe I'll get it sometime down the road (lol racing puns).

Also - NPD doesn't count digital sales.

I doubt they amount to anything substantial.

 

[AniHawk]

Look GAF, you can actually pinpoint the second when my heart rips in half!

i haven't played bayo2 yet. does that make me a bad person?

 

[kyser73]

The digital sales for Driveclub probably don't account for much as it wasn't in the PS Store's bestsellers for Nov. or Dec.

What about October?

 

[Anth0ny]

i haven't played bayo2 yet. does that make me a bad person?

I'm just polishing my GOTY post right now. Be sure to read it once it's up. Then you'll see. You'll all see.

Spoiler

THE ANSWER IS YES YOU MONSTER

 

[Amir0x]

I'm referring strictly to software total sales YoY not hardware if I wasn't clear on that sorry.

If we're just comparing Nintendo YoY software sales...

Yeah that's gonna be close. Smash Bros. and Mario Kart are at 1.3 million and 1.7 million respectively, which is 3 million. I don't know how much Hyrule Warriors did or Captain Toad. But what, 500k tops combined?

In 2015...

Zelda will probably sell in the range of 500-700k units.
Splatoon is a real wild card. I'm guessing it tops range at 250k.
Mario Party 10 will probably range 400k-500k.
Xenoblade Chronicles X will probably top 200k.
Yoshi Yarn will probably be 300k-ish.
Kirby will probably be 300k-ish

Yeah I don't see how it does it. Even giving a bit of space and giving each game my optimistic top end prediction, and pushing Yoshi and Kirby to 500k a piece would not match it. Maybe if Xenoblade and Splatoon really overperform, but on a system like Wii U I don't think that's a real possibility.

 

[freefornow]

Lifetime in US

Oh dear. I was going to say that racers aren't popular in the US, but how do you explain the Crew's numbers? Ubi power?

Edit: NVM, The Crew is multi platform.

 

[RespectThySole]

What about October?

It was #5 in October(US) and #1(EU), but it hasn't charted since then on either chart.

 

[donny2112]

Zelda will probably sell in the range of 500-700k units.

Zelda will be their holiday title, and we're talking about a (relatively) hardcore Nintendo series. The more core it is, the more it retains sales in a depressed sales environment. Easily above a million in Nov+Dec. next year. Rest looks reasonable, though.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

Kinda shocked at Driveclubs numbers. The sheer volume of DC threads has distorted my perception of what the sales would be.

Commercial success takes money, posts are free.

 

[Aeriscloud]

bayo 1 did 200k in the us on the 360 after 18 months. it did 150k on the ps3 in that same time. 135k after three months isn't that bad.

Wow, I mean I wish it was better... but wow.

 

[Regret Upon Approval]

Oh dear. I was going to say that racers aren't popular in the US, but how do you explain the Crew's numbers? Ubi power?

Edit: NVM, The Crew is multi platform.

I think the Driveclub PS+ thing that was supposed to pop up might have instilled a try-then-buy mentality in people.
Or maybe not, just a guess.

 

[Paracelsus]

Commercial success takes money, posts are free.

It's the vocal minority fallacy (?): if we went with that logic, Jrpg should sell a lot more than shooters since there's a lot more discussions about those on the internet.

 

[cool_dude]

Kinda shocked at Driveclubs numbers. The sheer volume of DC threads has distorted my perception of what the sales would be. Mostly european posters?

Edit: Is 84k December or lifetime?

The same posters posting over and over and over and over again.

 

[Richie]

Thanks a billion to cream for the numerous LTD!

Can only hope Nintendo keeps going for Bayo-like projects in spite of the game's sales, I mean, Donkey Kong is struggling to reach half a million in a year, wasn't the Country series a guaranteed, quick million seller in America?

 

[vinnygambini]

Zelda will be their holiday title, and we're talking about a (relatively) hardcore Nintendo series. The more core it is, the more it retains sales in a depressed sales environment. Easily above a million in Nov+Dec. next year. Rest looks reasonable, though.

Agreed.

Xenoblade & Splatoon are the wild cards for me.

And Amir0x, you can purchase your Ness amiibo soon

 

[ZSaberLink]

So... if I were to assume last gen was down 50% from last year, and sold like 500K (PS3 + 360 + Wii), I'm getting that the 3DS is down YoY (as expected), but that the Vita+TV sold double what it did last December?.... That can't be right, can it? Is my math/estimate that off?

I was using this
MS family > Nintendo family > Sony family
XB1 + 360 > 3DS + Wii U + Wii > PS4 + PS3 + PSV (w/ Vita TV)
and then using the #s and angles shinra posted to get the handheld market's lower and upper bounds.

Current angles:
158.5 = 1303K
130.1 = 1070K
71.4 = 587K

Last gen(?) angles:
195.3
143.8
20.9

Handheld angles:
296.5
56.3
7.2

Any help approved folks?

 

[ChronotriggerJM]

Well I think a decent chunk of drive clubs sales are digital. The upgrade was cheaper than buying in store. But I can't imagine it having that large a boost.

Aside from that, racing games fare better in Europe. Hopefully a PS+ version sometime in the next decade spurs awareness

 

[mikey1123]

Driveclub launched for $10 cheaper digitally. I bet that is how most early adopters bought the game.

 

[John Harker]

Neogaf is a very poor indicator of sales... This forum isn't a "fan" of any particular game or genre, it's a place people come to get a jump on news and to argue with each other. Too small and too narrowly focused to show trends.

Relatively directional indicator of sentiment for very core titles. Also a place where industry executives come in an attempt to gain legitimate and "street cred. Good place to drive indie conversation sometimes too.

But for big retail games?
It's the "daily Amazon sales charts" of sales tracking, hahah

 

[vpance]

Driveclub sales are probably 70% digital. So it's more like 250k

 

[Amir0x]

Zelda will be their holiday title, and we're talking about a (relatively) hardcore Nintendo series. The more core it is, the more it retains sales in a depressed sales environment. Easily above a million in Nov+Dec. next year. Rest looks reasonable, though.

I know they'll be pushing it hard (I still bet it gets delayed out of 2015 to early 2016, that's my wildcard bet), but I think there's not a terribly high number anyway to achieve. Zelda: Skyward Sword sold like 600,000 copies in North America (foggy memory) in its first month, and that was considered the fastest selling Zelda in NA of all time at that point.

Even if they retain high sales within a depressed environment, in 2015 you think the odds are likely that they'll sell higher than 700k within this year? I mean I'm just shooting the shit here. If it comes out in November, that means it'll need to sell extraordinarily well by its userbase ratio, and even if it did retain a high number of those users, I doubt it'll match Skyward Sword.

 

[Yoshi]

Yoshi > 400k

Huge, huge thanks for the update!

 

[Doukou]

Driveclub sales are probably 70% digital. So it's more like 250k

Isn't it usually 30% digital?
70 would be very high, even considering its price.

 

[SparkTR]

Driveclub sales are probably 70% digital. So it's more like 250k

70% digital is pretty much unheard of outside PC games, I really doubt that. If that is the case it'll spell a much, much larger console industry shift towards digital, which isn't something that's been observed yet.

 

[theprodigy]

Driveclub sales are probably 70% digital. So it's more like 250k

I highly doubt that, especially in the US

It was #5 in October(US) and #1(EU), but it hasn't charted since then on either chart.

 

[ChronotriggerJM]

So anyone know the sales gap between the bone and PS4 for December?

 

[ZSaberLink]

So anyone know the sales gap between the bone and PS4 for December?

230K or so.

 

[ninjablade]

bayo 1 did 200k in the us on the 360 after 18 months. it did 150k on the ps3 in that same time. 135k after three months isn't that bad.

Didn't the original bayo do about 200k on 360/ps3 it's first month? About 120k on 360 and 68k on ps3

 

[JAYSIMPLE]

Microsoft tested the water with the price cut. Found that that price works. Stuck with it. Business 101.lol

 

[ZSaberLink]

Neogaf is a very poor indicator of sales... This forum isn't a "fan" of any particular game or genre, it's a place people come to get a jump on news and to argue with each other. Too small and too narrowly focused to show trends.

Relatively directional indicator of sentiment for very core titles. Also a place where industry executives come in an attempt to gain legitimate and "street cred. Good place to drive indie conversation sometimes too.

But for big retail games?
It's the "daily Amazon sales charts" of sales tracking, hahah

Any thoughts on the below Harker?

So... if I were to assume last gen was down 50% from last year, and sold like 500K (PS3 + 360 + Wii), I'm getting that the 3DS is down YoY (as expected), but that the Vita+TV sold double what it did last December?.... That can't be right, can it? Is my math/estimate that off?

I was using this
MS family > Nintendo family > Sony family
XB1 + 360 > 3DS + Wii U + Wii > PS4 + PS3 + PSV (w/ Vita TV)
and then using the #s and angles shinra posted to get the handheld market's lower and upper bounds.

Current angles: (I have these #s)
158.5
130.1
71.4

Last gen(?) angles:
195.3
143.8
20.9

Handheld angles:
296.5
56.3
7.2

Any help approved folks?

Fantasy Life debuted around 60k, right?
Not too bad, I guess.

47K. But yeh, not too bad. Better than DriveClub at least lol (they opened with the same # of sales in their first month).

I'd love a Sonic Lost World Wii U LTD update. We've not had an update on that for nearly a year. I wonder how it's progressed since.

That was answered just a couple posts up from yours. BoomWU = 68K, Boom3D = 73K.

Just realized but Kirby had great legs wow

It had less than a 50k debut if I remember correctly.

Kirby's launch was split amongst two NPDs. It sold 90K in its first two days. Maybe the 50-60K was the next month.

 

[Evenflow]

I know they'll be pushing it hard (I still bet it gets delayed out of 2015 to early 2016, that's my wildcard bet), but I think there's not a terribly high number anyway to achieve. Zelda: Skyward Sword sold like 600,000 copies in North America (foggy memory) in its first month, and that was considered the fastest selling Zelda in NA of all time at that point.

Even if they retain high sales within a depressed environment, in 2015 you think the odds are likely that they'll sell higher than 700k within this year? I mean I'm just shooting the shit here. If it comes out in November, that means it'll need to sell extraordinarily well by its userbase ratio, and even if it did retain a high number of those users, I doubt it'll match Skyward Sword.

Zelda + amazing graphics + horse riding + no add on required= blockbuster sales, system seller

Zelda + toon graphics + no horse + add on required= crappy sales

That is basically how I see the series since 64 as a rule of thumb, and I think Zelda U falls firmly in the first category. (note the variables can be interchanged, Skyward didn't have toon graphics, but the wiimote plus add on required tanked it IMO)

 

[Richie]

"Bayonetta's LTD beats Mario's*, with much less of an install base!"

*Golf 3DS. May only prove Golf sold horrendously as opposed to constitute success for Bayo

 

[MormaPope]

People acting like cross gen games would be bombing terribly by now, five of the games listed have the 360 as the best selling version for the month.

 

[ninjablade]

Zelda + amazing graphics + horse riding + no add on required= blockbuster sales, system seller

Zelda + toon graphics + no horse + add on required= crappy sales

That is basically how I see the series since 64 as a rule of thumb, and I think Zelda U falls firmly in the first category. (note the variables can be interchanged, Skyward didn't have toon graphics, but the wiimote plus add on required tanked it IMO)

Zelda wiiu has toon graphics.

 

[LOCK]

If we're just comparing Nintendo YoY software sales...

Yeah that's gonna be close. Smash Bros. and Mario Kart are at 1.3 million and 1.7 million respectively, which is 3 million. I don't know how much Hyrule Warriors did or Captain Toad. But what, 500k tops combined?

In 2015...

Zelda will probably sell in the range of 500-700k units.
Splatoon is a real wild card. I'm guessing it tops range at 250k.
Mario Party 10 will probably range 400k-500k.
Xenoblade Chronicles X will probably top 200k.
Yoshi Yarn will probably be 300k-ish.
Kirby will probably be 300k-ish

Yeah I don't see how it does it. Even giving a bit of space and giving each game my optimistic top end prediction, and pushing Yoshi and Kirby to 500k a piece would not match it. Maybe if Xenoblade and Splatoon really overperform, but on a system like Wii U I don't think that's a real possibility.

Well older evergreen titles don't stop selling. Don't forget those.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Any LTD sales number for MCC?

 

[ZSaberLink]

Any LTD sales number for MCC?

> 1M

 

[Evenflow]

Zelda wiiu has toon graphics.

But not "Toon Link"