mujun said:Thank you very very much. Interesting stuff.
Would you agree that the PS3 is the only machine that looks like it can catch up? That's my grossly uninformed opinion based on those numbers.
None of them will catch up.
mujun said:Thank you very very much. Interesting stuff.
Would you agree that the PS3 is the only machine that looks like it can catch up? That's my grossly uninformed opinion based on those numbers.
mujun said:Thank you very very much. Interesting stuff.
Would you agree that the PS3 is the only machine that looks like it can catch up? That's my grossly uninformed opinion based on those numbers.
AniHawk said:catch up to the ps2? very small chance. the ps2 goes on to sell 200m units of software every year for the next 2-3 years at this point. for the ps3 to catch up, it would have to average 300m every year for the next 2-3 years.
OldJadedGamer said:SNES?
Leondexter said:Certainly. NES arguably even more so.
Watchtower said:Do you happen to have original Xbox LTD software sales?
AniHawk said:i tried looking for them, but i couldn't find anything. i think they were above the gc's for what it's worth, which was at 208m. for some reason i want to say 240m, but i think that's because microsoft sold 24m xboxen.
microsoft did this thing where they would just release tie ratio and hardware numbers and leave the rest to guess work. if there were numbers around here, i can't find 'em.
mujun said:Donny, what are "PS2 level software sales", if you wouldn't mind clarifying?
How close are the three current gen consoles?
AniHawk said:Further, Sony said it currently has 10,828 titles available for the system and that 1.52 billion PS2 titles have been sold since launch.
ds software sales: 817.49 million
wii software sales: 695.37 million
360 software sales: 450+ million (no actual numbers on this one afaik)
ps3 software sales: 408.2 million
psp software sales: 241.4 million
Too respond to your earlier reply and this one. The above user you quoted wrote what I was trying to say better.Watchtower said:Yes but I would argue when most gamers think of the PS2 they think of Grand Theft Auto, Madden, Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, Gran Turismo, etc...all for $299 and under. Only a tiny percentage of gamers actually think of any of the reasons mentioned in this thread(hint: this probably has something to do with why GAF always appears to miss when it comes to predicting the success of the next big thing).
Sales are a result of those things not a pre-requisite. It's always been that way. Not the other way around. Demographics were a result of the games for it. That's always been the case too. Games and price have always come first.
And if the Wii was $599 at launch it would have likely been a miserable failure.
donny2112 said:Thought about those, but decided that since the whole market was much smaller back then, it wouldn't really equal up to if the industry now backed a Nintendo console. Sorry for not being clearer. Meant the size of the industry in PS1/PS2 days, too. For the available third-party support at the time, NES certainly qualifies and probably SNES, too, though Genesis put on a big push for third-parties in the U.S.
Zoe said:Zumba is just the latest fad in the group exercise world. It will go the way of Tae Bo soon enough.
Lord_Byron28 said:Too respond to your earlier reply and this one. The above user you quoted wrote what I was trying to say better.
You are completely correct about software being the most important factor. If all of the must have software was on the PS3 then the PS3 could've succeeded. It all depends on if the amount of appealing software to the consumer is worth the price point the platform holder is asking. However, sales do play an important factor. PS2' sales is why so many people announced games for the PS3 before the platform even released. PS3 sales also was the reason why so many projects went PS360 instead of exclusive to one or the other. If the Wii had bombed than the poor support it got would've been completely non-existant. So you're right that sales and hype mainly do come from offering a good amount of quality and succesful games but, at the same time tons of games don't show up without the sales and the hype.
The reason why GAF was unable to foresee DS, Wii's and Kinect's success was due to it offering something that they hadn't experienced before and weren't used to(as well as personal preference clouding their judgement). It's a lot easier to see the PS3 with MGS, Final Fantasy, Killzone, etc already anounced for the platform before it launches, the PS2 dominating the generation before and naturally assume it will be the console that will succeed. Many didn't(and many still don't quite) understand the success of Wii sports, Brain Training and Dance Central until they had/have experienced it for themselves. For the record based on hype, price and software leading up to this generation, I thought 360 would be in first with Wii following closely behind and PS3 in dead last. I thought both Wii and Kinect would be succesful but never saw it being as succesful as they have been. I also didn't think that PS3 would've so succesfully helped revive itself with it's essential relaunch with the PS3 Slim.
As for the next PS2, I don't see it in any of this generation. DS and to a lesser extent PSP has the Japanese audience and a huge amount of games going towards to it and now to a greater extent the 3DS and NGP. The 360 and PS3 have the Western audience and a huge amount of their games going toward that. Unfortunately for Western game developers, Japanese gamers are a lot more adverse to western games while the west is more receptive of Japanese games than vice versa. Then there is the Wii which captured the casual audience, the Nintendo fans and I'd say a lot of lapsed gamers or Nintendo fans that had abandoned them during the PS1/PS2 era. I think for the most part the PS2 captured all of those audiences except for all of the Nintendo fans and the hardcore shooter fans which came from the Xbox.
Watchtower said:Well I agree with just about everything you said there except for that fact that I see the 360/PS3 offering exactly the same type of games that were the main draw of the PS2 user base, and either could be seen as the platform that, for the most part, is currently sustaining the majority of that same user base(in other words most gamers that bought the PS2 most likely migrated to 360/PS3). And also both consoles are the recipients of the main third party games that basically built not just the PS2, but the Playstation, before it.
In other words, what truly defined the PS2 was the 100 million so core gamers it had. And those guys, as it turns out, threw Wii's sales success to the side and demanded developers continue to make the games they like in their true next generation form. Developers and those gamers saw eye to eye from the get go.
I've always believed that, which is why I never understood the apprehension some people have towards casual games. The guys who have a proven track record over the past 2 decades are the ones that are going to decide whether core games ever go away or not. The only way they are ever going to go away, is if that +100 million decided they don't like them anymore and vote with their wallets.
This post is full of awesome juice. I don't mean juice from the fruit of the awesome tree but just a juice with a bold, awesome flavor that has only a hint of aftertaste.Watchtower said:juicy and awesome post
evangd007 said:Here is where you lose me and everyone else who is reasonable. I was willing to give you the benefit of the doubt, but if you truly believe that out of ~150 million PS2 owners that 100 million were "core," you are deluding yourself. The PS2's library was so wide and eclectic that many of your so called "defining" games don't crack 10% attach rate. The core buys the most games per capita, yes, and the games that they like get the most attention, yes, but they do not represent even close to the majority of console owners or gamers in general, nevermind 2/3s.
Your thesis seems to hinge upon the assumption that that the widespread success of the PS2 was due to the presence of these core games which brought the numerous multitudes of the all powerful core demographic to the yard, which is simply not true. Its success was due to the fact that it had everything. "Main draw" doesn't matter. Development and marketing budget doesn't matter. When we talk about PS2 and why it dominated a market for 6 years, it comes down to breadth of content. A breadth that no console or handheld currently on the market possesses, including the DS which misses what seems to be the demographic you care most about. Nintendo's big experiment into that demographic of the DS, GTA: CW, failed.
As for your Post-script, which you added while I was writing this, first of all, don't speak for me or anyone else who is part of this community. We are enthusiasts; we are "core" in the way that the industry defines the term, but my tastes differ from Amirox's (oh god do they differ from Amirox's) differ from pretty much anyone else's on this forum. Second, the Wii and DS don't have those demographics. That is really the entire point: nobody has every demographic, which fostered the perfect storm of the PS2. Your opinion on the supposed successor to the PS2 seems to be largely self-serving: you want to declare the PS3/360 (combining them both, which I consider a cop-out) because they provide the content that matters the most to you.
Watchtower said:the 100 million so core gamers
Leondexter said:Whoa, slow down with this. That's pretty out there. The PS2's audience was mostly casual. It just had a nice, solid core of "core" gamers. The same was actually true of the Xbox and Gamecube, too. That's why this gen is so fragmented: the "core" has mostly gone to PS3/360 and the "casual" has mostly gone to Wii.
Last gen, the PS2 had it all. This gen, no system does. What's so hard to accept about that?
REMEMBER CITADEL said:Leondexter and evangd007 hit it on the head. Although there is a distinction between the "old casual" and the "new casual", in no way, shape or form is either of these groups as well represented on HD consoles as it was on the PS2 - at least not yet.
Watchtower said:Dude.....you lost me on the first sentence because that is exactly what has happend. You do realize that the combined user bases of the PS3/360 is right at 100 million right now? Who do you think these guys are? And they will probably far exceed 150 million(not counting what Kinect and Move bring in) by the end of this generation.
Leondexter said:You're making tons of assumptions. Firstly, you're leaving out the Xbox and Gamecube in your math, which were just as "hardcore" as the PS2, arguably more so. With those number included, this gen only adds up if you include the Wii, and then it surpasses last gen, which isn't surprising--it's happened every single generation to date. The market continues to grow.
Then you're assuming that all 360/PS3 owners are hardcore gamers, which is absurd.
Then you're re-defining "core" to suit your own purposes. To be fair, that stupidity is rampant in the industry, but even allowing you to decide that, say, Madden is suddenly a "core" game, you're discounting the millions of parents who bought PS2s for their kids, or even just the tens of millions who never played the specific games you think should "count" for your definitions.
I was defending you earlier somewhat, but now you've completely gone off the deep end. Get a grip.
Watchtower said:See my post above. Core doesn't mean non-casual!
And yes they do. Both the PS2 and the 360 have it all.
With the exception of the ever so present slight shift in one genre over the next that always takes place, what genres of games did the PS2 have that the 360/PS3 do not?
Name me these genres that the PS3/360 are not covering that the PS2 did. This is non-sense. You guys are confused and believe the casual gamers that liked traditional games are the same as the new demographics the Wii brought in or they stopped liking those games.
And now I would argue that both the PS3 and 360 appeal to an even larger demographic because of Kinect/Move. The 360/PS3 hasn't lost any of the gamers the PS2 had. They are still "here" for crying out loud and there is no proof to all of a sudden assume they converted to 100% motion controllers or handheld owners.
Leondexter said:As I said, your math is bad. You're lumping the 360 and PS2 together while discounting the 30+ million Xbox/Gamecube owners that existed at this point last gen.
Anyway, why do you think someone who was casually interested in Tiger Woods Golf last gen wouldn't now be playing Tiger Woods Golf, motion-controlled Wii edition? Or Wii Sports? Why wouldn't a parent who bought a PS2 so their kids could play Dragon Ball, Spyro or Ratchet and Klank buy a Wii so their kids could play Mario Kart?
There's no doubt in my mind that casual PS2 owners became casual Wii owners - in fact, polling data presents that as indisputable fact. I expect there's been a shift in the last year or so, but at one point, IIRC, something like 70 percent of new console buyers were PS2 owners migrating to the Wii. There was also a fair amount of data that showed that the "Wii owners who'd never bought a videogame before" phenomenon was exaggerated.
However, I wouldn't say the PS3/360 have big gaps in their genre coverage. What I would say is they have big gaps in the success of those genres.
Watchtower said:I added the Xbox and PS2 together further above. I am not discounting that. But it is reasonable to assume most GC owners did still go with the Nintendo console. Also, I never used the term hardcore. And to me core in this day and age means "traditional gamers". What does core mean to you?
The only assumptions I see here is that the 360/PS3 doesn't attract the same amount of casuals the PS2 did and that these guys are doing something else now. Yes there are a few of you saying this with absolutely nothing to back it up. The numbers would not even add up if that was the case(even with growth).
PS: Madden is a core game. It's a core game that appeals to both casuals and "hardcore" gamers alike.
Leondexter said:It's not at all reasonable to assume Gamecube owners became Wii owners. That's an extremely poor assumption. Firstly, the history of this industry proves conclusively that such brand loyalty is quite weak. And secondly, Nintendo targets children as their #1 market, and those kids grow up and may very well want more "mature" games (God help us all for using that horrible misnomer).
By the way, "core" came from "hardcore". So yes you did use it. I'll tell you what "core" means to me: it's an infantile way for someone to indirectly insult something they don't like. Too many people - you included, from what I've seen - use "core" to basically create an "in" clique of people or games, implicating that everything else is the "out" group.
That seems to be pretty much what you're doing here. You want to define what you like as successful and good, while deriding everything else. You want the PS2 defined by what you like about it, and you want the current system(s) you like defined the same way. My advice is to let it go. Enjoy what you like. If it makes you feel any better, you can consider the Xbox 360 to be a much more "core" system than the PS2 ever was.
Watchtower said:Tell me the difference. Please. Point it out with facts.
Watchtower said:PS: Also if you are willing to admit there is a difference between the "old" and the "new" how can you even possibly say they are not being represented as well as the PS2, when they were not represented at all by the PS2? The new guys didn't exist. Neither did the games or console that brought them in.
Watchtower said:No I'm not man. I simply made that statement in general speaking terms. If you notice above I was actually trying to figure out the total number of Xbox/PS2 software sales to make that exact calculation in terms of software but no one could actually give me solid numgers.
If you want to add it all in, by all means. It still doesn't make a difference to my argument and it still doesn't change the fact the 360/PS3 is probably well over 50% casual just as of right now. This generation is far from over. Most of those casuals jump in at sub-$199.
And again, I'm not assuming that some are NOT playing Tiger Woods Motion Control. Why are you assuming they are not also playing Tiger Woods PS3/360 all of a sudden? Just because the Wii exists?
What proof is there to say that the hardcore gamers stayed put...but the casuals moved to the Wii, and all of a sudden they can't play with a traditional contoller anymore that served them just fine over the past 20 years. That, if you ask me, is the more unreasonable assumption. There is no proof of that.
There is proof of the opposite, mainly both 360s and PS3s user bases. The fact is there are no basis that the PS3/360 does not cover for the gamers that played during the PS2 era. None. The PS3/360 cover all of those basis and like I said, with Kinect and Move, even more. The PS3/360 if anything appeal to a larger demographic than the PS2 did because they also offer motion controls now.
That was the whole point you know.
Who Posted?
Total Posts: 2,175
User Name Posts
Watchtower 152
BroHuffman 36
Gravijah 35
szaromir 30
Sho_Nuff82 26
Arpharmd B 26
OldJadedGamer 25
Leondexter 25
Watchtower said:.however you look at it with the one exception being sales...it turns out it's the 360/PS3 that carried on that legacy.
REMEMBER CITADEL said:As far as breadth of content goes, I don't think it even needs pointing out, it's that obvious. PS2 had all the genres popular today (true, maybe it wasn't as strong in first-person shooters), but also plenty of stuff that has since either moved to the Wii and handhelds or disappeared completely (for instance, a HUGE library of quality JRPGs, platformers, quirky low to mid budget Japanese games and plenty of embarrassing shovelware which always tends to stick with the most popular platform).
From the sales perspective, you can take a look at some of the most prominent "old casual" franchises. SingStar and Buzz used to be very big in Europe, but they've since lost a lot of their audience (to the point that the Buzz developer has abandoned the franchise altogether), and not to Lips and Scene It. Now, in the case of SingStar you could argue that the audience has simply moved onto Guitar Hero and Rock Band (which are not exactly in the same boat since their plastic instruments require a significant investment), but Guitar Hero has in fact continued to do fantastic numbers on the PS2 as well (and of course, the Wii).
The Sims, another staple "old casual" franchise, also used to do significantly better on the PS2 than it currently does on HD consoles, and no other franchise has taken its place.
But looking at just specific IPs doesn't paint the whole picture because, as others have already pointed out, PS2's strength wasn't in great sales of a few franchises, but in good sales of many. Both Xbox 360 and PS3 lack that breadth of content that would attract many different types of gamers in significant numbers, which is something that PS2 used to manage effortlessly.
Brashnir said:Watchtower, you have 116 more posts than the second-most prolific poster in this thread. Give it a rest, man.
Leondexter said:That's the largest possible exception there is. If it isn't carrying on the PS2's sales, then it isn't carrying on the PS2's legacy at all, is it? Besides, there are plenty of other distinctions, but you're giving all the lengthy explanations the ostrich head-in-the-sand treatment.
Look, as I said hours ago, if you feel the 360 (or the odd PS3/360 hybrid beast you insist on) is the most similar current console to what the PS2 was, that's a totally valid view. There's nothing wrong with that view at all.
But the simple fact is that the market is very different now to what it was last gen, and there is no true equivalent.
Watchtower said:What would you have me do man? These guys are replying to me. Ignore them? I wanna go to bed too.
Watchtower said:What would you have me do man? These guys are replying to me. Ignore them? I wanna go to bed too.
Brashnir said:
It's been days. Just let it go.
V_Arnold said:Ignore. If a conversation goes nowhere, no point in arguing further.
Watchtower said:But many of the genres you are talking about are not actually being represented by anything else either in a big way. So that tells me those genres popularity has faded and other genres have taken over not that the PS3/360 fails to represent them. By contrast the 360/PS3 have far more FPS, far more Guitar Heroes and Rockbands(and yes Guitar Hero/Rockband dwarfed Singstar on the PS2 in popularity), far more western RPGS that the PS2 didn't have.
The huge quality of JRPGS didn't move to the Wii either, and the main reason they moved to the DS is because JRPGS are primarily most popular in Japan, and that's the state of the industry there(which btw, has a whole lot to do with the fact that the 360 couldn't break into that market...so a long time went by where the PS3 was out of reach to most Japanese gamers and no alternative unlike the US/Europe which did go for the 360). And let's not forget DQ either.
What you are talking about is that demand for certain types of genres have faded since the PS2 for one reason or another. Not that the 360/PS3 isn't covering those gamers that enjoyed those genres and someone else is or that gamers that played Singstar, JRPGs or quirky games moved on to the Wii or no longer exist.
I mean what are you going to say about the might Tony Hawk? The 360/PS3's at fault and isn't covering that demographic which is why it's no longer in a big way? Because that was a pretty big series on the PS2 as well. No, I think you would agree the series just lost its popularity.
REMEMBER CITADEL said:So you agree that the circumstances have changed significantly since then and that PS2 and Xbox 360/PS3 are nothing alike. Good.
Watchtower said:Ok so finally...you admit. The only way in which the PS3/360 isn't like the PS2 is sales domination.
Thanks. That's all I have been saying all along. Why did we all argue for so long?
Watchtower said:First part yes. Never argued that. Second part, absolutey not, obviously. They are very much alike in terms of games, third party support and the demographics they are going for.
Really if we're back to 0 then at this point I will have to call it a night.
Leondexter said:That's not exactly what I said, Mr. Ostrich (did the bit about "plenty of other distinctions" mean nothing to you?), but if you go back to my very first reply to you, you'll find that I said almost the same thing in that post as this last one. Your view is perfectly valid on the face of it. But when you get into the particulars, you sound nuts.
REMEMBER CITADEL said:I think that would be the sanest thing to do, yes.
Personally, I don't think there is or ever will be a PS2 of this generation. It's not a single console, it's not a handheld and it's not a combination of HD consoles. Frankly, I don't understand where this desire to identify a PS2 of this generation even comes from. The things are very different now and the PS2 was by no means a perfect platform. No single platform ever wasalthough the Dreamcast had the chance of becoming one
David Dennis, PR manager for the Xbox 360 stressed that it has no intention of turning its back on its core audience.
Dennis said that the company was very aware of the role that the core audience had played in the 360's success. Microsoft was obviously excited about the success of Kinect, he continued, but had no intention of stopping production of core games like Halo and Gears of War.
painful fart said:Just to examplify Microsofts view of the term "core games".
http://www.escapistmagazine.com/forums/read/7.255549-Microsoft-We-Wont-Abandon-Core-Gamers
REMEMBER CITADEL said:I thought this was going to be about people in Metallica T-shirts, but the point of posting this is... What exactly?
REMEMBER CITADEL said:I thought this was going to be about people in Metallica T-shirts, but the point of posting this is... What exactly?
With an install base of 50 million consoles, and at most eight million Kinect users, it doesn't make a lot of sense for Microsoft to snub nearly 85% of its audience, and especially not to court a pool of users who tend to buy fewer games anyway. Even as Kinect becomes more common, there's still plenty of money to be made from core games, and it's very unlikely that Microsoft, or any other publisher for that matter, is going to turn its back on that.
When fastened together it can also make a fetching skirt.AniHawk said:money can be exchanged for goods and services.
REMEMBER CITADEL said:I thought this was going to be about people in Metallica T-shirts, but the point of posting this is... What exactly?
Yeah, NPD released data on this showing 71% of Wii owners to also have owned a PS2.Leondexter said:but at one point, IIRC, something like 70 percent of new console buyers were PS2 owners migrating to the Wii.