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NPD Sales Results for March 2013 [Up5: BioShock Infinite]

I just finished Bioshock Infinite, but I can't imagine what you mean as far as it pushing story in games "so far ahead for the medium."
I believe the way the game integrated its engaging story, accompanied by the visual spectacle it executed to accompany it, was a leap forward for the gaming medium.

Edit: And of course I found the action portions highly engaging and well designed in Infinite despite enjoying the gameplay template of Bioshock 1 more.
 
I think the question was about why did the wii rise so much not why did it sell so much shinra. Brand confusion is all i can think of with no price drop. And this isn't to excuse the wiiu at all for its shit performance
Sure but its not like we're talking millions. More to the tune of 10-15k
Wii didn't rise. It's in line with expectation, based on February's estimate of 99K - if we were still doing Wii predictions in the prediction thread, it's around what I personally would have guestimated. It's down M/M as per norm in both absolute and /week sales in terms of Feb-Mar transition. It's also down Y/Y ~50% which has been it's norm so far this year.

You really think 15,000 people went into a store wanting a Wii U and accidentally bought a Wii. That the Wii U number would be 80K if people weren't so dumb? The Wii is selling based on its merits, as is the Wii U.
 

chubigans

y'all should be ashamed
I suspect we'll get a statement from Take-Two to the effect of "shipments were strong, but below expectations."

I was about to say how crazy that seems given today's marketplace, but then again Infinite was in development hell for a few years so no telling how much money that project ended up eating.
 

Cutebrute

Member
What's on the 24th?

Iwata's resignation.

Investors' Grilling Meeting.



loool

tumblr_lheubcncwE1qzpbds_zpsc1f52f18.jpg


This entire page was just sad to read.
 
Wii didn't rise. It's in line with expectation, based on February's estimate of 99K - if we were still doing Wii predictions in the prediction thread, it's around what I personally would have guestimated. It's down M/M as per norm in both absolute and /week sales in terms of Feb-Mar transition. It's also down Y/Y ~50% which has been it's norm so far this year.

You really think 15,000 people went into a store wanting a Wii U and accidentally bought a Wii. That the Wii U number would be 80K if people weren't so dumb? The Wii is selling based on its merits, as is the Wii U.

Oh sorry i completely read the numbers wrong. Disregard what i said earlier =p

Although it would not surprise me if people went to the store to buy a wiiu, saw the price/software and said nope and bought a wii
 

Dragon

Banned
If i wanted a game that was all about a story I'd play a visual novel or a IF game not a mediocre, slapdash, overcooked FPS with the plot of more adventurous, higher budgeted Sliders episode.

I don't know what point you're trying to make but you're failing to communicate it!
 

EDarkness

Member
Nope, I'm saying there's two types of potential customers these third parties are dealing with to buy their games.

1) Wii U budget/family gamers that are oblivious to the differences between versions, because they're basically oblivious to the games themselves.

2) A competitive advantage built up in 360/PS3 owners playing the same franchises on the same system for years, aren't going to move to a Wii U version - or even buy a Wii U for that matter - for the games they want.

Actually you can probably extend that last one to 360 vs. PS3 even, because Microsoft has used Live as an advantage in North America over the PS3 for years now. Sony hasn't been able to make ground either in hardware or same SKUs versus Microsoft because of the competitive advantage they've built with Live with what, 20 million users now? Sony has a little bit of a faithful PSN base because it's free, but even they've been beat by Microsoft.

Now combine both of those advantages versus Nintendo, and you see why where they're at. You can't just ignore online for a decade then just throw out the bare minimum and expect people to jump on board, they missed the boat. Third party sales only go as far as the community built up for those games, since almost every big release is online in some form or fashion.

I understand what you're saying and I agree, to be honest. I'm generally looking at this from the standpoint of a consumer and someone who owns all of the systems. When a game gets announced I look at all versions and decide which version to get from features and such. People I know do the same thing, though some of them are more biased than others. When the version on the Cube, Wii, Wii U is considered there's almost always a "but...". "It plays well, but..." It's like developers don't want to sell their game for some reason or another. I still can't even believe EA did what they did with Madden for the Wii.

Sure, some of it can be Nintendo's fault. The way they handled online play on the Cube was terrible. I'm even surprised Sega was able to get PSO working on it, to be honest. It's a pit it's going to take them a while to get out of and I think we all know that. However, in some cases publishers are to blame in how a game performs. Releasing a game months late with missing features (no matter how small) doesn't help people all of a sudden decide to pick the game up. There has to be some interest in order for this to work out not to mention the general feeling that by supporting X game on Y console will net more support later down the line. Generally this isn't the case. People supported Resident Evil 4 on the Wii U and it didn't net them anything of real value down the line.

Of course, we're talking about a group that at least reads a little bit about games (these aren't the same guys who buy Dora, Cars, or Just Dance), they're going to compare and go with what is the better value for the money. Paying $60 for a game they can get now with all the features on a console they own is better than buying a new console for a game with missing features unless they're a die hard fan. I would imagine this is true for any console.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I was about to say how crazy that seems given today's marketplace, but then again Infinite was in development hell for a few years so no telling how much money that project ended up eating.

Well they're a 200 person studio, the game was in development for 5.5 years, and oftentimes a publisher expects a big title to do more than just break even or make a minor profit (due to opportunity cost), so I don't think it's that unreasonable to think they had high hopes.
 

Daingurse

Member
I was about to say how crazy that seems given today's marketplace, but then again Infinite was in development hell for a few years so no telling how much money that project ended up eating.

This also concerns me. Hell, I feel really bad I haven't played Infinite yet.

Sorry Ken, broke as a joke.
 

chubigans

y'all should be ashamed
Well they're a 200 person studio, the game was in development for 5.5 years, and oftentimes a publisher expects a big title to do more than just break even or make a minor profit (due to opportunity cost), so I don't think it's that unreasonable to think they had high hopes.

Yeah, that's true. A shame it didn't come out this last holiday with so few games to compete with.
 

NBtoaster

Member
People can stop saying games are Wii U's problem now. It had no retail software last month and sold 66k. It had 4 games this month and sold a whopping 2k more.
 

Bruno MB

Member
Tomb Raider (3.4M units shipped)

Sales to consumers:

US - 640,000 as of April 6, 2013
UK - around 348,000 as of April 14, 2013
Rest of Europe - Unknown
 

jmizzal

Member
If Need for Speed really sold that bad, I guess that's a wrap for EA support on Wii U.

They already wrapped it up, no Madden, no Fifa, no Tiger, no Battlefield, anything announced for EA is announced for WiiU and thats before they even knew sales figures, really why even bother giving them your money. The only game I care about is Madden.
 
Well they're a 200 person studio, the game was in development for 5.5 years, and oftentimes a publisher expects a big title to do more than just break even or make a minor profit (due to opportunity cost), so I don't think it's that unreasonable to think they had high hopes.

these days one shouldn't hope for too much it seems. to do so is foolish.

the game was really in dev for 5.5 years? i recall hearing about it for more like 2.

If it is a 200 person studio, figuring 100k yearly per employee (realistic after health care and all that) that's 20m per year. 5.5 years =$110m

870k copies, say they see $30 per copy after retail, platform holder cut etc, that's only ~26m...

numbers obviously incredibly broad stroke.

You could see a case maybe for break even if you assume they get $40 per copy instead of 30 (bringing revenue to 35m), employee salary averages 80k instead of 100 (reducing cost to 88m), and guesstimate worldwide lifetime sales at 2.5+ times that 35m (or around 2.2m copies sold, or the equivalent at full price eg a higher number sold at a lower ASP).

Yeah it seems a stretch.

But would this game really have a ~100m budget? I thought that was reserved almost for the GTA's of the world. UE3 always says to me "cheaper dev costs". But I guess it all gets back to team size only.
 
Tomb Raider (3.4M units shipped)

Sales to consumers:

US - 640,000 as of April 6, 2013
UK - around 348,000 as of April 14, 2013
Rest of Europe - Unknown
Lets be generous and give the rest of EU 1M, that means there's a good 1.4M+ left on store shelves. Its gonna need good legs to clear out the rest of the stock anytime soon.
 
They already wrapped it up, no Madden, no Fifa, no Tiger, no Battlefield, anything announced for EA is announced for WiiU and thats before they even knew sales figures, really why even bother giving them your money. The only game I care about is Madden.

I haven't played the new NFS yet... but I hear it's a good game.

Maybe give them your money if you enjoy the game? Personally I always support games, not publishers. I don't give a damn who the publisher is to be honest. A good game is a good game.
 

Schnozberry

Member
I haven't played the new NFS yet... but I hear it's a good game.

Maybe give them your money if you enjoy the game? Personally I always support games, not publishers. I don't give a damn who the publisher is to be honest. A good game is a good game.

Most Wanted U is great. I must have missed the source on that <10k number. Was it posted? I seem to remember reading it was doing well in the UK in a different Nintendo thread.
 

Guevara

Member
I wonder if there won't be a flood of Bioshock Infinite trade ins. I guess the DLC presale should allay that a bit, but the game itself has very little replay value.
 

jmizzal

Member
I haven't played the new NFS yet... but I hear it's a good game.

Maybe give them your money if you enjoy the game? Personally I always support games, not publishers. I don't give a damn who the publisher is to be honest. A good game is a good game.

To be clear I meant why bother to buy games just to try to get support from them when they were not gonna support WiiU anyways from the get go.

I brought Madden and Mass Effect 3
 
Most Wanted U is great. I must have missed the source on that <10k number. Was it posted? I seem to remember reading it was doing well in the UK in a different Nintendo thread.

These are just US numbers, not including digital purchases. Given how low the number is it might be plausible that it sold better in the UK.
 
These are just US numbers, not including digital purchases. Given how low the number is it might be plausible that it sold better in the UK.

Also, as mentioned, that $30 sale from the EA Origin store, even if it was a physical disc, probably wasn't counted by NPD. That had to be a fairly large fraction of sales. The 10K number may be a bit misleading.

Still probably had shit sales though.
 

Schnozberry

Member
These are just US numbers, not including digital purchases. Given how low the number is it might be plausible that it sold better in the UK.

Less than 10k in the US is a crying shame. Criterion deserves better. The game plays great and is the best looking Wii U game. I hope that is a miscalculation, because if not that's brutal. I suppose the fact that it's a late port and got no pub didn't help.
 

Krilekk

Banned
these days one shouldn't hope for too much it seems. to do so is foolish.

the game was really in dev for 5.5 years? i recall hearing about it for more like 2.

If it is a 200 person studio, figuring 100k yearly per employee (realistic after health care and all that) that's 20m per year. 5.5 years =$110m

870k copies, say they see $30 per copy after retail, platform holder cut etc, that's only ~26m...

numbers obviously incredibly broad stroke.

You could see a case maybe for break even if you assume they get $40 per copy instead of 30 (bringing revenue to 35m), employee salary averages 80k instead of 100 (reducing cost to 88m), and guesstimate worldwide lifetime sales at 2.5+ times that 35m (or around 2.2m copies sold, or the equivalent at full price eg a higher number sold at a lower ASP).

Yeah it seems a stretch.

But would this game really have a ~100m budget? I thought that was reserved almost for the GTA's of the world. UE3 always says to me "cheaper dev costs". But I guess it all gets back to team size only.

You're forgetting digital sales, bundles with GPUs. Bioshock Infinite should be well past 3 million lifetime sales all things considered.
 
People can stop saying games are Wii U's problem now. It had no retail software last month and sold 66k. It had 4 games this month and sold a whopping 2k more.

Not that I'm wildly optimistic or anything, but I don't think any of the March releases exactly speak to the impact MK, 3D Mario, or SSB might have on hardware sales.
 
Not that I'm wildly optimistic or anything, but I don't think any of the March releases exactly speak to the impact MK, 3D Mario, or SSB might have on hardware sales.

So you're saying that unique titles mean absolutely nothing for the Wii U, and that "more of the same" is the only saving grace?
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
He's being generous with NFSU being "10k", by the way.... Wowzer.

And Lego is the #2 title launch behind NSMBU in Wii u now. I'd say that's a successnstory , when you need to find one here...
 
So you're saying that unique titles mean absolutely nothing for the Wii U, and that "more of the same" is the only saving grace?

Well more of the same is what usually sells. Are people expecting knack to sell ps4s or killzone/assassins creed/battlefield/infamous? The more scary question is how low the wii u goes this summer. Without a pricedrop it could be sub 40k
 
They needed to get it from the start. If they had that grand idea, we would have seen it at launch. The Wiimote had things going for it that the Pad don't. Namely novelty (we hadn't seen anything really like it before. People have been using tablets for years) and ease of use. My 60+ year old dad had never touched a video game in his life. He was able to grab the Wii Mote and play golf, bowling and tennis in a matter of seconds. This would not be the case with any tablet/TV interface. There was something much more natural about the Wii-mote as a method of input that the Pad simply cannot replicate.
Yup. Wii U is basicaly the Wii's Antichrist when you think about it.

Any casual could pick up a Wiimote, wave their arms to roll a bowling ball on screen while holding a button or two and letting go. It took the focus completely away from the controller.

The gamepad puts it COMPLETELY on the gamepad as some sort of obnoxious hub. Doing actions on it requires looking away from the action on the screen to do a task. It's worlds more complicated than a Wiimote for casuals, and for even regular gamers it an annoyance that has to be babysit.
This is some good analysis on how the Wii U has failed so far.






WiiU should have been "Wii 2". Instead of the gamepad they should have put that money into making it have genuine next gen power (or approaching it)
So somehow a $300 system launching a year earlier would "approach" the "genuine next gen power" of $500+ systems whose specs could always be further increased at any time?

Yeah that was never possible to begin with.





Don't worry. The market just wants a next-gen system.
It hasn't wanted one so far...






They must release systems with (at least) similar power to Sony and Microsoft now to compete in this market. The Wii crowd is gone and there's no getting them back.
Yes of course releasing an even more expensive system will make them competitive.

And if the expanded market that propelled the Wii and PS2 to success is truly gone, then every new system is dead in the water, full stop.






I'll take Gamecube sales as long as it comes with gamecube-quality games.
Gamecube sales aren't enough to sustain games with much higher budgets than Gamecube games.
 
Bottom line, NFS U is a bomba of epic proportions. It would be completely understandable if EA stops supporting the platform.

I would really like to know if NFS MW Vita outsold NFS MW U on its first month.
 
Well more of the same is what usually sells. Are people expecting knack to sell ps4s or killzone/assassins creed/battlefield/infamous? The more scary question is how low the wii u goes this summer. Without a pricedrop it could be sub 40k

The PS3's biggest system sellers this gen were probably Call of Duty and Assassin's Creed (not at all established before this gen) and Sony created a lot of new IP that probably pushed hardware as well. I think we've already seen the ceiling for Nintendo systems totally dependent on Mario, Smash, Mario Kart, and Zelda and Nintendo probably needs some new hits (that appeal to people that aren't traditional Nintendo fans) to get above GCN or N64 level.

Then again, it's not close to either system right now so getting to that level could be considered a potential success compared to where it's at now.
 
People can stop saying games are Wii U's problem now. It had no retail software last month and sold 66k. It had 4 games this month and sold a whopping 2k more.

Not that I'm wildly optimistic or anything, but I don't think any of the March releases exactly speak to the impact MK, 3D Mario, or SSB might have on hardware sales.


I have never subscribed to the theory that a game release provides a meaningful single month boost in NPD. It certainly may do so in Japan in the week-to-week, but as near as I figure it from looking at historical numbers, it seems to be more of a bias built into the numbers over a longer term both leading up to the release and, particularly if it's a game changer, in the months and even years following the release. There certainly can be a slight uptick in the month directly attributable to a game, but it seems more often than not the bigger shifts in a given month are due to bundles, price reductions, and obviously holiday shopping at the end of the year.

That is to say, people are not typically buying consoles the very day the game they want gets released. They find an excuse to buy it before, or they buy it that day, or they delay and buy it at some point later, and that some point can indeed be months or years after the release, particularly if they weren't aware of it at the time or the system wasn't in their budget.

This is a long way of saying that those 4 games mattered last month and will next month and the numbers won't change much. And the big hitters that people are counting on to shift some systems are already doing it right now, and it's also not meaning much. These big games are known properties. One of them could certainly become a game changer and really move some units, I won't say none of them can. But barring some revolution, they won't lead to a tsunami. A gradually rising tide, perhaps.

If Nintendo is to change the fortunes of the Wii U, they're going to need to move the demand line with something akin to the phenomena of Wii Sports, Wii Fit, etc. Not those games. They're known. But games that simply capture the moment in a way that not many anticipated, certainly to the degree to which they catapulted the Wii into the stratosphere. The problem is those games are like a bolt of lightning. Unfortunately, you never know when or where it's ever gonna strike. (And this is why Nintendo needs Marty McFly.)
 
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