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NPD Sales Results for March 2013 [Up5: BioShock Infinite]

For people who want to play the games on it, for which it first actually needs games people want to play. Don't know if you're trying to ask about "who wants a touchpad input device to play" or something, but if so, it's not about the hardware. It's about the games. The entertainment. The hardware is just a means to an end. Unless the hardware makes people not want to use it (e.g. headaches from Virtual Boy), the hardware part is only relevant in if it allows the particular game to be made on it.
I was actually trying to get at specific demographic markets. I don't believe hardware plays no part in driving appeal at a generational transition. But setting that aside and focusing on software, yes, if we're talking in broad strokes "People who want to play the games on it." But who are these people that the software in question is meant to drive demand, to create a sufficient value proposition.
For Wii U, it first needs games, because it first needs to be desirable to the mainstream purchasers. I don't think it actually is there, yet. If the games come without a price cut, there'll be some increase until the ones who wanted those games and were willing to pay that price are used up.
Again, who are these mainstream purchasers. 15-35 year old males? 35+ females and their under-15 children? 15-35 year old females? 35+ers?

In a similar vein, which part of an adoption curve are we really looking at, when we see how the Wii U is selling? Because when I see the present sales, I don't see a system driving the beginnings of a new hardware cycle.
However combining the games (to make the system actually desirable) with a big price cut (there's nothing reasonable about a Nintendo system at $350, from my viewpoint, as it's not what Nintendo has historically been at), opens up a much larger pool of buyers that would actually have a chance to be sustained with more software (which makes the system desirable to more at that price) before needing to cut price again later.

With Wii, it was a phenomenon. The pool who wanted Wii Sports was huge, as most everyone who played it wanted in. The $250 price of Wii Sports was reasonable for them. NSMBU for $350 is not, from my viewpoint.
The (theoretical) price of entry is the same as the PS1, PS2 and 360; it's lower than what the 360 was generally selling for as the "tard" pack was apparently unpopular. I'm not really sure why it matters that it's a Nintendo system.

And, sure, I agree lowering the price obviously opens up the product to a greater pool of potential buyers, but price was a very obvious inhibitor of sales for the PS3, for good reason. I don't see how $300, or even $350, should be a major impediment to sales unless, as I alluded to above and have alluded to before, the system is not selling as a new generation of hardware, but simply competing for late generation adopters.

The Wii had a nominal price of $250, but we know it was going for much more.
 

Mooreberg

is sharpening a shovel and digging a ditch
I wonder how GOW and Gears will look compared to per platform sales on BioShock and Tomb Raider. The anticipation level on both of them seemed lower than previous games.
 

Valkyria

Banned
The 3.1 million is shipped numbers, it wa 2.04 million sold at the end of dec.



EU might be close in size to US market but the WiiU had a much slower start there, it will be very far from close to the WiiU sales in the US.

In some countries it was not performing too bad, as in France for example. Not setting the world on fire, but way better than in UK.
 
So is the 67K for the Wii U the lowest sales in a single month in the US for any non-end-of-its-life console? I seem to recall the PS3 never fell below 82K even at its worst, but I certainly could be wrong and would appreciate confirmation or correction.
 
So is the 67K for the Wii U the lowest sales in a single month in the US for any non-end-of-its-life console? I seem to recall the PS3 never fell below 82K even at its worst, but I certainly could be wrong and would appreciate confirmation or correction.
What timeframe are we talking about? I'm sure the Saturn had worse months.
 
So is the 67K for the Wii U the lowest sales in a single month in the US for any non-end-of-its-life console? I seem to recall the PS3 never fell below 82K even at its worst, but I certainly could be wrong and would appreciate confirmation or correction.

And this was a 5 week reporting period....

What timeframe are we talking about? I'm sure the Saturn had worse months.

In the U.S. the Saturn was always at the end-of-its-life.
 
France was the only country where it performed better than the uk.
I don't think they were even that much better, if my recollection serves, in both percentage and absolute terms. At least at launch, it's possible French sales haven't collapsed as much post-launch as in the UK.
So is the 67K for the Wii U the lowest sales in a single month in the US for any non-end-of-its-life console? I seem to recall the PS3 never fell below 82K even at its worst, but I certainly could be wrong and would appreciate confirmation or correction.
At 57K sold, Wii U's January performance is historically abysmal.
 
I'm pretty sure Germany and Italy were doing better, in UK is selling around 2K a week. Maybe I'm wrong.

The only concrete info is from nintendo themselves on their last report.

France>UK=Germany > etc and that is market %, so with UK being still the largest market in Europe actual number sales will be France> UK> Germany > etc
 
So is the 67K for the Wii U the lowest sales in a single month in the US for any non-end-of-its-life console? I seem to recall the PS3 never fell below 82K even at its worst, but I certainly could be wrong and would appreciate confirmation or correction.

It's not even the lowest sales month for the Wii U.
 

donny2112

Member
I don't believe hardware plays no part in driving appeal at a generational transition.

For the mainstream, the only part it plays is if the game they want to play is on it or not. Forumites care about GFLOPS and GDDR5, because they think that will result in the games that they want. (Think of the people that bought Vita due to the hardware for the hope of games that may or may not come to fruition, at this point.) The regular mass-market just cares about if the game they want to play is on the system, and in the online connected world, what system they have to buy to play with their friends. However in both cases, the system itself is just a means to an end.

But setting that aside and focusing on software, yes, if we're talking in broad strokes "People who want to play the games on it." But who are these people that the software in question is meant to drive demand, to create a sufficient value proposition.

Even talking minimalist GameCube type levels, Mario Kart, Zelda, and Smash Bros. all sold > 2 million on the system. Smash Bros. came out at $200, Zelda at $150, and Mario Kart at $100 for the system price. Mario Kart would be the most mainstream of those three, and it also came out when the price was lowest. So even looking at GameCube for a reference point on bigger games, those three would seem to be games to add to a catalog to drive demand, but the price is still just too high, right now. As discussed in the MC thread, my concern is that if those games come out before the price is significantly lower that they'll just be muted in their effect. These are not "must buy the system at any price to play" games.

Coming from the Wii, more people are familiar with these games, and especially Mario Kart. If you asked the average Wii owner if they would want to play another Mario Kart, I'd imagine they'd very likely say "yes." That does not mean that a Wii U Mario Kart would sell 10m in the U.S. like it did on Wii, but brand familiarity combined with an acceptable entry price (obviously that's subjective, but $200 has typically been thrown around; I'm just wanting a $100 drop to $250. :p ) can lead to that system purchase.

I'm not talking about people leaving Call of Duty to play Mario Kart, but rather the Mario Kart people who couldn't care less about GFLOPS and GDDR5.

In a similar vein, which part of an adoption curve are we really looking at, when we see how the Wii U is selling?

Pre-launch. Thing hasn't even showed up, yet. :p

The (theoretical) price of entry is the same as the PS1, PS2 and 360; it's lower than what the 360 was generally selling for as the "tard" pack was apparently unpopular. I'm not really sure why it matters that it's a Nintendo system.

Nintendo ain't selling to their usual core demographic, right now. Maybe you think that usual core demographic that buys a Nintendo system early on died with Wii, but I'm thinking that launching $100 higher than last gen and $150 higher then every gen before (inflation now doesn't change what was paid then) is going to make a lot of people think twice about if they really want the system. PS2 was coming off PS1 (and included a DVD player, when those were still new), and 360 started slow, too. PS1 started off horribly launching at $100 more than the previous generation. I have it selling ~500K in the first four months (Sept-Dec 1995). Not exactly an example you'd want to mimic at the start of the generation. Not sure when it dropped to $199, but I seem to recall it was pretty early.

The Wii had a nominal price of $250, but we know it was going for much more.

Part of the worth of the higher price of the Wii was so that you could stop searching for the dang thing in stores. It was a convenience factor added in to the price. :p

Edit:
PS1 launched in 1995, not 2005. :lol
 

Daingurse

Member
Vita should combine with Wii U, and then they'd be selling exactly 100,000! An impressive number for the Nintendo Gamecube...


...wait, no it's not, 'cause then the Gamecube still would have had a better month than Wii U in the same comparable timeframe lol

Vita needs to commit suicide. It's sad since it's easily the best gaming dedicated handheld ever made hardware-wise, but the market has spoken and now it's just a hole in Sony's pocket.

It's a damn shame. The engineers who made the fucking thing did everything right.
 

big youth

Member
I was wrong about NSMBU as well. I thought it would push the Wii U more than it has.

I think NSMB2 coming out first is the main reason why NSMBU is not a bigger system seller. Nintendo shouldn't have released two similar games in such a short span. A kid wants NSMBU and their parents tell the kid they already bought the new super mario brothers game on 3DS.

Almost everyone was wrong about it. People here, Pachter, Nintendo, myself.

But in retrospect it's easy to understand why NSMBU is not a system seller. I think the close release of NSMB2 was only a small factor, but more importantly NSMBU is too familiar and lacks the wow factor that system sellers have. The graphics aren't impressive by any stretch of the imagination, nothing about the gameplay is fresh or must play, etc. Nintendo probably learned a lot from the Wii U launch, I know I did.
 

big youth

Member
When people talk about how Wii U will ultimately sell they leave out an important x factor, which is Nintendo's stabs at blue ocean style games. Iwata has said some will be coming to Wii U, and given Nintendo's track record with Wii Sports, Nintendogs, Brain Age, and Wii Fit, I don't think it's wise to discount Nintendo. They tend to have tricks up their sleeves that speak to casual and non gamers.
 

AzaK

Member
It really doesn't look good for WiiU or third party support for now or the forseable future. I seem to see few games that are announced as multi platform where there is a U version. It's more of a surprise if there is. It's got a a lot of months to go before it'll see a decent uplift in sales as there's no killer software on the horizon and no big Nintendo hitters till at least Oct/Nov. A price cut may help it cruise along the summer months a little but it's not going to do much. It's a complete miss managed launch for a console with promising titles few and far between. Third party support is dire and it's mainly scraps, very few major games. Embarrassingly highlighted in Nintendo's PR this month. I do wonder what Nintendo's battle plan is. Are they really gonna brush the console off till the holidays when they could relaunch it? Third parties and retailers would be asking for blood and abandon it long before if it keeps this up.

I don't think they'll relaunch but more of a marketting blitz. Until then they will continue to brush it aside. Those who have bought have already bought and there are no competitor consoles for someone to buy after selling the Wii U.

Nintendo are completely taking the piss out of us early adopters.
 

Amir0x

Banned
It's a damn shame. The engineers who made the fucking thing did everything right.

yup. it really is a matter of the wrong guy losing in this case

as is so often the case, the mass market is terrible at deciding shit

those Infinite numbers are pretty swell!
 

big youth

Member
I'm always curious what people mean by relaunch. AzaK is right, Nintendo will do the more sensible thing, advertising heavily as major games release and incentivizing with bundles and sales.
 
For the mainstream, the only part it plays is if the game they want to play is on it or not. Forumites care about GFLOPS and GDDR5, because they think that will result in the games that they want. (Think of the people that bought Vita due to the hardware for the hope of games that may or may not come to fruition, at this point.) The regular mass-market just cares about if the game they want to play is on the system, and in the online connected world, what system they have to buy to play with their friends. However in both cases, the system itself is just a means to an end.
Typically early adopters =/= mass market though? And even for the mass market something must drive transition; when I talk about hardware being important, I'm not necessarily talking about consumers caring about FLOPS and RAM per se. I'm talking about the hardware serving as a basis for new software that goes beyond current software and/or as a basis for expectation of greater things in the coming generation.
Even talking minimalist GameCube type levels, Mario Kart, Zelda, and Smash Bros. all sold > 2 million on the system. Smash Bros. came out at $200, Zelda at $150, and Mario Kart at $100 for the system price. Mario Kart would be the most mainstream of those three, and it also came out when the price was lowest. So even looking at GameCube for a reference point on bigger games, those three would seem to be games to add to a catalog to drive demand, but the price is still just too high, right now. As discussed in the MC thread, my concern is that if those games come out before the price is significantly lower that they'll just be muted in their effect. These are not "must buy the system at any price to play" games.
I don't dispute that a price drop and these software releases will definitely help the system. It will most certainly provide more of Nintendo's fans with a sufficient value proposition to purchase the system. But whether that value proposition extends beyond Nintendo's core fanbase is the question mark, and how much it extends.
Coming from the Wii, more people are familiar with these games, and especially Mario Kart. If you asked the average Wii owner if they would want to play another Mario Kart, I'd imagine they'd very likely say "yes." That does not mean that a Wii U Mario Kart would sell 10m in the U.S. like it did on Wii, but brand familiarity combined with an acceptable entry price (obviously that's subjective, but $200 has typically been thrown around; I'm just wanting a $100 drop to $250. :p ) can lead to that system purchase.

I'm not talking about people leaving Call of Duty to play Mario Kart, but rather the Mario Kart people who couldn't care less about GFLOPS and GDDR5.
I don't dispute that mindshare may have grown due to the Wii, but at this stage it's very difficult to quantify - and given NSMBU, has been previously somewhat overstated.

I took the liberty of examining the Wii weekly hardware in a similar manner to the earlier PS3 chart for the first 4 years:
9r3FGJI.png


The lower sales for 07 I imagine may be due to shortages. There seems to be a spike around the launch of Mario Kart Wii, but I'd imagine there's also an effect of improvement in supply there that's difficult to delineate?

It's difficult to ascertain how much of an effect Mario Kart had; but I don't know how it will result in an effect sufficient to meet the expectations I see on here.

For some perspective, we're talking about a sustained doubling of current sales just to reach PS3 07 and 09 pre-Slim doldrum levels.

And a sustained quadrupling or more to reach PS3 08 and post-Slim levels.

I don't know if there's huge precedent for that.
Nintendo ain't selling to their usual core demographic, right now. Maybe you think that usual core demographic that buys a Nintendo system early on died with Wii, but I'm thinking that launching $100 higher than last gen and $150 higher then every gen before (inflation now doesn't change what was paid then) is going to make a lot of people think twice about if they really want the system. PS2 was coming off PS1 (and included a DVD player, when those were still new), and 360 started slow, too.
I'd actually say, on the contrary, that Nintendo's core fanbase are the only one's really buying the system right now. They caused the initial spike in sales at launch, I imagine. The 360 started slow, but not this slow.

In these post-launch months, beyond there being Nintendo core fans buying the system, the sales have to me implied a system competing for relevance against the PS3 and 360 - laggard adopters of a similar vein to the people who bought a PS2 this generation.
PS1 started off horribly launching at $100 more than the previous generation. I have it selling ~500K in the first four months (Sept-Dec 2005). Not exactly an example you'd want to mimic at the start of the generation. Not sure when it dropped to $199, but I seem to recall it was pretty early.
Wasn't aware of this, learn something new every day. The more you know.
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Interesting. If retailers lose faith/interest in Wii U as a platform, how will it compete for what will be valuable shelf space as planning begins for the holiday season?

Considering that we're expecting 1-2 new platforms, plus 360 and PS3 remaining, then trying to clear out Wii stock, plus 3DS and possibly Vita (another hard sell)... how much room do retailers give Wii U, especially if there's weak consumer interest?

This could be interesting to watch, and another reason why Nintendo absolutely must deliver at E3 in a few weeks.

A lot rides on % of SCBL on wii u I'd imagine... its too late to bail on that one, but anything else can be on canceled after this release if the ROI is very bad. I know several projects are in a holding pattern already, so let's see how that does
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
A lot rides on % of SCBL on wii u I'd imagine... its too late to bail on that one, but anything else can be on canceled after this release if the ROI is very bad. I know several projects are in a holding pattern already, so let's see how that does

We'll see in August.

I mean, leaks
 

Panajev2001a

GAF's Pleasant Genius
It's a damn shame. The engineers who made the fucking thing did everything right.
The only issue with it was the concept of memory cards for saves not bundled with every single unit a concept which was ok in the PS2 era, but it is not ok for portables and smartphones and has not been for a while.
Something like a 512 MB cards even (1 or 2 GB would have been even better), no need for anything pricy.

I do not think the current memory cards are that overpriced personally (performance of those high density super el cheapo SD cards would suck for DD games loaded/streamed off of them), but I still think that the concept of forcing portable users to buy memory even for basic functionality like game saves is an anacronistic idea.

With that said and out of the way, yeah... It is the best portable gaming device I have ever had the pleasure to play with. DPad, screen, joysticks, OS, etc... So awesome :).
 

Daingurse

Member
The only issue with it was the concept of memory cards for saves not bundled with every single unit a concept which was ok in the PS2 era, but it is not ok for portables and smartphones and has not been for a while.
Something like a 512 MB cards even (1 or 2 GB would have been even better), no need for anything pricy.

I do not think the current memory cards are that overpriced personally (performance of those high density super el cheapo SD cards would suck for DD games loaded/streamed off of them), but I still think that the concept of forcing portable users to buy memory even for basic functionality like game saves is an anacronistic idea.

With that said and our of the way, yeah... It is the best portable gaming device I have ever had the pleasure to play with. DPad, screen, joysticks, OS, etc... So awesome :).

It makes me so bitter to see such a lovingly made device flounder and languish, while my shitty horrible unergonomic OG 3DS gets fucking gold like Kid Icarus, Revelations and FE:Awakening.
 

Rocky

Banned
The only issue with it was the concept of memory cards for saves not bundled with every single unit a concept which was ok in the PS2 era, but it is not ok for portables and smartphones and has not been for a while.
Something like a 512 MB cards even (1 or 2 GB would have been even better), no need for anything pricy.

I do not think the current memory cards are that overpriced personally (performance of those high density super el cheapo SD cards would suck for DD games loaded/streamed off of them), but I still think that the concept of forcing portable users to buy memory even for basic functionality like game saves is an anacronistic idea.

With that said and our of the way, yeah... It is the best portable gaming device I have ever had the pleasure to play with. DPad, screen, joysticks, OS, etc... So awesome :).

It makes me so bitter to see such a lovingly made device flounder and languish, while my shitty horrible unergonomic OG 3DS gets fucking gold like Kid Icarus, Revelations and FE:Awakening.

I agree with this 100%. It really is a great handheld and deserves better support.
 

AniHawk

Member
It makes me so bitter to see such a lovingly made device flounder and languish, while my shitty horrible unergonomic OG 3DS gets fucking gold like Kid Icarus, Revelations and FE:Awakening.

that's up to sony though. they totally could have said, 'hey naughty dog, make a game for this thing you hacks' but instead it was 'hey guys, make a game please?' and they were all 'nah bro, we don't know how.'

at least mediamolecule has some problem-solvers on their team. not a fan of every game they do, but i love the energy and work they put into them.
 

Daingurse

Member
that's up to sony though. they totally could have said, 'hey naughty dog, make a game for this thing you hacks' but instead it was 'hey guys, make a game please?' and they were all 'nah bro, we don't know how.'

at least mediamolecule has some problem-solvers on their team. not a fan of every game they do, but i love the energy and work they put into them.

Yep, it's entirely up to Sony (And maybe a few indie devs) to support the handheld with compelling software and like the Nintendo with Wii-U they also failed.
 

allan-bh

Member
I wouldn't write NSMBU off, it has like the highest attach rate I've seen I think. What's the highest on record? Adoption has been crazy, its still like 70%. Clearly its the main - if not only - reason people bought the system

So, NSMBU > 700k? That's really impressive.

Zelda TP on march 2007 had ~63% attach rate on Wii
 
The only issue with it was the concept of memory cards for saves not bundled with every single unit a concept which was ok in the PS2 era, but it is not ok for portables and smartphones and has not been for a while.
Something like a 512 MB cards even (1 or 2 GB would have been even better), no need for anything pricy.

I do not think the current memory cards are that overpriced personally (performance of those high density super el cheapo SD cards would suck for DD games loaded/streamed off of them), but I still think that the concept of forcing portable users to buy memory even for basic functionality like game saves is an anacronistic idea.

With that said and out of the way, yeah... It is the best portable gaming device I have ever had the pleasure to play with. DPad, screen, joysticks, OS, etc... So awesome :).
I still scratch my head when I think about how they thought they could get away with not including memory space in the actual device, especially when consumers have come to expect that from their electronics. The lack of memory is even further emphasised by the great Playstation Plus offers on Vita games, which you can't take advantage of without a large memory card.

The cost of memory, in addition to the console price, is really one of my main concerns when considering a purchase.
 

Mario007

Member
I still scratch my head when I think about how they thought they could get away with not including memory space in the actual device, especially when consumers have come to expect that from their electronics. The lack of memory is even further emphasised by the great Playstation Plus offers on Vita games, which you can't take advantage of without a large memory card.

The cost of memory, in addition to the console price, is really one of my main concerns when considering a purchase.
To keep the console price as low as it is?
 

LuchaShaq

Banned
And over charge for the propriety memory?

I'm sure they thought that would work out for them, but it apparently didn't.

It ended up factoring into the price anyway, as they had to start bundling memory.

Yup I and a handful of friends didn't buy a vita/didn't buy a vita until there were unhappy vita owners on craigslist selling their system/16-32 gig card/some games for under 200.

If it had even 8 or 16 gig internal or allowed non proprietary memory our group of about 8 would have likely all gotten one at launch.
 

Mileena

Banned
I still scratch my head when I think about how they thought they could get away with not including memory space in the actual device, especially when consumers have come to expect that from their electronics. The lack of memory is even further emphasised by the great Playstation Plus offers on Vita games, which you can't take advantage of without a large memory card.

The cost of memory, in addition to the console price, is really one of my main concerns when considering a purchase.

And I will scratch my head when I think about Nintendo getting away without including a fucking ethernet port in their 2013 console. Companies do dumb shit to save money.
 

QaaQer

Member
Those MH3G 3D numbers are fucking terrible when put next to the Wii U MH numbers considering the huge disparity in userbase.

not really. 3ds demo skews heavily to the under 12s. MH just isn't all that appealing to them. I'm guess the wii u userbase right now consists of die hard Nintendo fans, who are most likely >12 y.o.
 

QaaQer

Member
With sales in Japan going back to sub 10K soonish, I believe Sony has 3 options with the vita.

- Strip it down and make it essentially an expensive, $99, PS4 accessory. This option would not do well IMO
- Kill it by March 2014. I.e. ship whatever they are gonna ship this FY and by May 2014, when they give out their FY report, state that the vita project is no more
- Relaunch it with 16/32GB embedded internal memory, hdmi out, tablet, phone SKUs, redesigned store along with app, ebook, mp3 stores, price drop by at least $50, MC price drop by ~50% while introducing 64 and 128GB MCs, and a whole bunch of new games. They would also need to relaunch PSM at the same time as well

If I were Kaz Hirai [\b]I would go with the 2nd option to be honest.


Good think for shareholders you aren't. How does any of those suggestions result in more money for SonY?
 

kswiston

Member
I am surprised that God of War ascension did as well as it did. It dropped less than 50% from God of War 3 despite looking completely unnecessary and having a 80 metacritic score in a series that was previously always in the low 90s.
 

Tagg9

Member
I am surprised that God of War ascension did as well as it did. It dropped less than 50% from God of War 3 despite looking completely unnecessary and having a 80 metacritic score in a series that was previously always in the low 90s.

It also added multiplayer to the series, which likely sold a lot of people on the game.
 
I am surprised that God of War ascension did as well as it did. It dropped less than 50% from God of War 3 despite looking completely unnecessary and having a 80 metacritic score in a series that was previously always in the low 90s.

Yeah even with the MP I was expecting 300k
 
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