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[eddfromtheriver]

I wonder if MS will ever make money on a console. Seems like they are in a big hole right now with the XB1 and will have to cut price and spend more in the future.

Nadella should just cut the entire branch.

They entered the gaming space because they wanted to dominate the living room. i remember reading about their ambitions before the OG XBOX was released on magazines such as EGM, NextGen and whatnot... they've invested millions and have barely made any kind of profit while spread upon all their console releases, now they are getting beat soundly and may need to make even more drastic decisions that will make them lose even more money, the investors that are asking for MS's gaming division to be offed must not be very happy, and are surely getting louder with their demands.

Things aren't looking up for them.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

It'll be fun, but expected. Truly great NPDs have an element of surprise or an unexpected result.

I think he means the NPD after Microsoft drops the price.

Everyone thought Microsoft would thin this NPD, and looked what happened.

Just imagine if Sony wins the month after the drop...

 

[LilWayneSuckz]

I think he means the NPD after Microsoft drops the price.

Everyone thought Microsoft would thin this NPD, and looked what happened.

Just imagine if Sony wins the month after the drop...

Yeah this is what I meant. Sorry for the confusion.

If the PS4 outsells the XB1 in the US when they are the same price then thats when Microsoft will be in full panic mode.

 

[ascii42]

Yeah this is what I meant. Sorry for the confusion.

If the PS4 outsells the XB1 in the US when they are the same price then thats when Microsoft will be in full panic mode.

I really don't see that happening. Even the original Xbox outsold the PS2 some months.

 

[Hip Hop]

Got damn, those Wii U and Vita numbers.

Kind of sad as those two are so awesome as hardware goes.

 

[Birgitte2004]

I think the NPD where Microsoft drops the price of the XB1 to $399 will be just as interesting.

Isn't that effectively what we had with the 450$ bundles including either Titanfall or Forza?

 

[Man]

Got damn, those Wii U and Vita numbers.

Kind of sad as those two are so awesome as hardware goes.

The Wii U is terrible hardware in company with the Xbox One.

 

[vpance]

yeah, because sony's the one that needs to grow ps4 mindshare >_>


not saying 3rd party exclusive titles are bad, just saying the money could be spent in other, better ways.

If you ever stop thinking like a challenger you'll eventually find yourself knocked down on your ass

Arguably there might be more profitable things they could do with the money, but I'd like to see that bloodthirsty Sony for the feels.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Question:

PS4 is at 2.91 million, with 7 months left, meaning it needs to average 306k per month to match the Wii. Not easy.

Since both consoles are ahead of the Wii and PS2, when do people think the "slowdown" going to happen? And the streams cross? It has to happen eventually right...

 

[Four_Chamber]

People painting Xbox sales as a disaster just crack me up. Both consoles are doing fine, just that the PS4 is doing better. The Xbox, contrary to the dreams of many, isn't going anywhere.

 

[QuantumZebra]

Don't count Vita out , its a lot to ask for someone to buy a $200 Vita while they are also planning to buy a new $400 PS4 and games for it.

I think it makes sense to see a lull in vita sales while there is an uptick from the pent up PS4 demand. I expect to see a rise in vita sales by the end of the year as many of those 7+ million decide to explore remote play. I think we are reading too much into it at this point.

Good post. Vita could see a HUGE uptick once people get settled into their new PS4s... the 2000 gets released, and remote play word gets around. The hardware in it is obviously good enough to run for the long haul.

 

[Quadraphonic]

People painting Xbox sales as a disaster just crack me up. Both consoles are doing fine, just that the PS4 is doing better. The Xbox, contrary to the dreams of many, isn't going anywhere.

In one country.

 

[A_Gorilla]

People painting Xbox sales as a disaster just crack me up. Both consoles are doing fine, just that the PS4 is doing better. The Xbox, contrary to the dreams of many, isn't going anywhere.

So once again US=World? Because that is about the only place they are doing "fine."

 

[Dire]

Something strange/potentially interesting going on. Out of the 10 Target stores closest to me, only 3 have Xbox Ones in stock(only 1 has a Titanfall bundle), while 6 have PS4s. It could mean nothing, but is it possible that Microsoft is putting together another bundle/game pack in?

Edit: It's also possible that the $450 retailer price cut worked well into April too.

Yeah that's more or less what I was wondering given the recent fire sales of XBones. The fact that all retailers simultaneously started trying to liquidate their XBone inventory seems to scream E3 SKU on the way. If they're not reupping their inventory then I think that would more or less confirm it. June is a while away but I think the PS4 was really helped its lack of availability - it made it seem more desirable. If consumers associate the lack of XBones on store shelves with them being sold out...?

Anyhow, I'm going to go for the obvious. $299 Kinectless system + media remote + support for external HDDs.

Perhaps $350, but I really don't think they're going to go price parity with the PS4. That will accomplish nothing. Perhaps price parity + Forza + Titanfall + 12 months of gold.

 

[Moneal]

what has been the US percent of xbox one sales 60% or so right? at least it was as of their 3million sold number. if the trend stayed the same that would put xbox one outside us sales at about 426k. jan thru march xbox one sold 710k in us. totaling 1136k or 1.1. million. adding that to the previous 3million would set them at 4.1 million sold and 900k still at retail.

this shows that world wide ps4 is selling in one month about what xbox one is selling in 3. those numbers are not good for xbox.

in a vacuum xbox one would be selling great, but its not in a vacuum. it has to compete with ps4 for sales and it isn't doing well in that regard.

 

[Antiwhippy]

So once again US=World? Because that is about the only place they are doing "fine."

NPD is a US sales tracker, to be fair. They can say that it's doing fine in a NPD thread.

 

[Hip Hop]

The Wii U is terrible hardware in company with the Xbox One.

I meant like the Gamepad technology, the controller itself, and the look of the console.

I agree on the specs, it really isn't anything hot. It will just drag it down more as time goes on.

Good post. Vita could see a HUGE uptick once people get settled into their new PS4s... the 2000 gets released, and remote play word gets around. The hardware in it is obviously good enough to run for the long haul.

I think it's already too late for that. The remote play word already got around and back. The Vita should have seen a good bump already since the PS4 launched. A drop already from last year to 10k is pathetic. I see nothing that can revitalize the system. Nope, not even a Vita TV. I really think the remote play is a very small market that not many people are interested in sadly or can't take advantage of it because of internet reasons. Me, I really enjoy off-tv. The best thing that has been brought out to this gen in my opinion. That is the reason of why I purchased the Wii U and Vita and hope to get a Nvidia Shield soon.

But yeah, Sony will have to shake up things immensely, or the Vita will just continue to cost on mediocre sales. Remote Play is not nearly enough.

 

[Tigress]

Good post. Vita could see a HUGE uptick once people get settled into their new PS4s... the 2000 gets released, and remote play word gets around. The hardware in it is obviously good enough to run for the long haul.

Problem with the vita is it now has a strong reputation (and not good) amongst those that know it even exists (I met a huge Playstation fan who scoffed at the xbox who didn't even know Vita existed at all, that's a huge marketing fail right there). And the thing is, it's had this reputation for a while. At this point it is more than 2 years old, people who might have been willing to think it might turn around now pretty much have written if off and the only people buying are ones who are ok with the idea the vita is dead but they'll enjoy what games it has. Which, honestly, most people buying a new console/handheld want to know that it is going to get future support and don't tend to stop to think if it already has enough to justify it. The fact they feel it has no future will be a huge negative to buying it regardless of if it already has good games. Unless it is already at discontinued/cheap prices. People don't want to pay full price for a device they feel is dead.

It will take a lot to bring Vita back around. And I'll admit, as some one who really would love to see it succeed, I'm still cheering for it regardless of what everyone is saying (even on this thread after seeing the dismal sales). But, I am not going to get my hopes up. But I am happy it's getting so many good games this year even if they weren't what I was originally hoping for it . And I'm hoping at the least that it will still get the support from indies and japanese games and maybe another game like Killzone or two (I know at this point that's asking a lot).

Though it won't reach its full potential and that is sad. I actually did like the idea of it being a handheld for console quality games on the go. Honestly, I wouldn't even mind if those games were mostly ports, I bought it to be a mobile machine so getting ports allows me to play those games mobile. But I don't even think I can hope for more stuff like Borderlands 2 even at this point . At least I'm finding though it's a great machine for indies (I prefer playing indie games on it), JRPGs/RPGs (I love playing those on it, it's like curling up with a good book), platformers (and I'm not even a big platformer fan but they're fun on the vita), PSP games, PSX games (it's that dream handheld of mine when the PSX was out of PSX games on the go), and the few console quality games it did get. So while it never will reach the potential I got it for, I'm so glad I did get it (It's my most used gaming machine right now honestly).

 

[TropicanaTwista]

People painting Xbox sales as a disaster just crack me up. Both consoles are doing fine, just that the PS4 is doing better. The Xbox, contrary to the dreams of many, isn't going anywhere.

This is just US though, a place were MS does pretty well. And while they arent doing bad in the US, they are still getting beat by a decent amount in a territory they once dominated in. This is also after a bundle, there biggest game of the year, and a price drop in some stores. They have to be at least somewhat concerned

 

[Aquamarine]

NPD is a US sales tracker, to be fair. They can say that it's doing fine in a NPD thread.

And the USA is Microsoft's principal sales territory.

The fact that it's doing relatively well here...is a sigh of relief at the very least for everyone at MSFT.

 

[Cess007]

Good for sony. The ps4 can't be stopped.

Wonder how the Xbox 2 and ps5 will start off. Now both makers had less than successful launches so it will be interesting to see the approach that they will take.

What are you talking about? Everyone knows this is the last generation of consoles

 

[Dragon]

People painting Xbox sales as a disaster just crack me up. Both consoles are doing fine, just that the PS4 is doing better. The Xbox, contrary to the dreams of many, isn't going anywhere.

Contrary to your dreams, the XB1 ain't doing as well as you think.

 

[plagiarize]

Only if PS4 still outsells it, otherwise it's expected.

and why wouldn't it?

 

[Nightengale]

And the USA is Microsoft's principal sales territory.

The fact that it's doing relatively well here...is a sigh of relief at the very least for everyone at MSFT.

I wonder if perspectives will change with Elop in charge of hardware now.

Unlike the previous head whose business perspectives have always leaned west, Elop ran Nokia, of which the importance of the global market was of utmost importance and that NA was a laughable part of the business to them.

 

[Dire]

Question:



Since both consoles are ahead of the Wii and PS2, when do people think the "slowdown" going to happen? And the streams cross? It has to happen eventually right...

Why in the world does that graph not include the 360?

Ok, that aside -the one thing that was really different about this generation as opposed to any other is that there was an enormous amount of supply available from day 1. This was completely unprecedented. In terms of gross unit availability we're months ahead of where we've been in any other generation.

However the slowdown in demand has already happened. Compare the slope of the lines to the other consoles. The uptick in the slope of the PS2 was not demand increasing, it was supply increasing. Next month will likely be the worst month for both consoles by a pretty wide margin. The XBone will likely fall under the other consoles within a few months - about the same boost it got from the initial supply. The PS4 will probably take about a year. It will start to fall under but they'll get a big boost around September since it's an easy go-to gift and they'll undoubtedly have some very enticing packages available since the value of their hardware is rapidly declining.

 

[mechphree]

Xbone is doing fine. Not as good as ps4 but it'll be ok. The hyperbole in this thread is real. People claiming it's a disaster for Microsoft it's weird to me. I feel we will just have another ps3/xbox 360 thing going on where Xbone is going to have to catch up.

 

[Moneal]

Xbone is doing fine. Not as good as ps4 but it'll be ok. The hyperbole in this thread is real. People claiming it's a disaster for Microsoft it's weird to me. I feel we will just have another ps3/xbox 360 thing going on where Xbone is going to have to catch up.

where will they catch up thought? 360ps3 are now at almost parity because 360 almost doubled ps3 in US without us dominance like 360 had xbox one isn't going to come close to ps4. and so far ps4 is gaining a bigger lead in the us each month.

 

[GoofsterStud]

Isn't that effectively what we had with the 450$ bundles including either Titanfall or Forza?

Actually there was a couple $399 deals that included Forza. Making those deals cheaper than a PS4.

Isn't that effectively what we had with the 450$ bundles including either Titanfall or Forza?

I wonder if perspectives will change with Elop in charge of hardware now.

Unlike the previous head whose business perspectives have always leaned west, Elop ran Nokia, of which the importance of the global market was of utmost importance and that NA was a laughable part of the business to them.

Elop is the master at getting a company ready to be sold off to another. Recently we have:
Nokia to Microsoft
Macromedia to Adobe

If your going to play the Elop card, you have to know it has a red herring.

 

[LilWayneSuckz]

Xbone is doing fine. Not as good as ps4 but it'll be ok. The hyperbole in this thread is real. People claiming it's a disaster for Microsoft it's weird to me. I feel we will just have another ps3/xbox 360 thing going on where Xbone is going to have to catch up.

It's not disastrous. But the 360 sold 40+ million in the US alone. Having the PS4 as the market leader in the US, UK, EU and Japan is very worrisome for MSFT

 

[Dire]

And the USA is Microsoft's principal sales territory.

The fact that it's doing relatively well here...is a sigh of relief at the very least for everyone at MSFT.

Not really. What people don't tend to realize is that last gen Microsoft nearly doubled Sony's sales in the US - 1.7:1 going from memory. The reason both consoles came out about equal in the longrun was that only about 33% of Sony's sales came from the US, while around 60% of Microsoft's did.

If Microsoft can't crush in the US, they're almost certainly going to end up with a minuscule fraction of the market which is not only bad from a sales perspective, but also puts them in a terrible spot when it comes to trying to negotiate for exclusives, DLC priority, etc.

I wonder if [UC-centric] perspectives will change with Elop in charge of hardware now.

Unlike the previous head whose business perspectives have always leaned west, Elop ran Nokia, of which the importance of the global market was of utmost importance and that NA was a laughable part of the business to them.

It's not like Microsoft wanted to be just the US console. Microsoft tried incredibly hard to get a foothold in other major markets like Japan last gen. It's not Microsoft's perspectives on the rest of the world that's a problem, it's the rest of the world's perspectives on Microsoft. I think the XBox's perception as a shooter box has been very damaging to reception outside the US. Starting this gen off by effectively labeling the XBone as a shooter box is again something that I think was very questionable, even if it had succeeded in the US. Sony for their part also isn't do much to cast away that stereotype either.

 

[A_Gorilla]

Xbone is doing fine. Not as good as ps4 but it'll be ok. The hyperbole in this thread is real. People claiming it's a disaster for Microsoft it's weird to me. I feel we will just have another ps3/xbox 360 thing going on where Xbone is going to have to catch up.

Apples to Oranges. PS3 had the worldwide market to fall back on. Xbox has only ever been mega popular in USA (and the UK to a far lesser degree). And now Sony is beating it in the US too...

 

[Dawnbuster]

Problem with the vita is it now has a strong reputation (and not good) amongst those that know it even exists (I met a huge Playstation fan who scoffed at the xbox who didn't even know Vita existed at all, that's a huge marketing fail right there).

What kind of rock does a "huge Playstation fan" need to live under to not even know the Vita exists?

Does he wear blinders when he goes to Best Buy or Gamestop and can see only the PS3 aisle? Does he never ever go into PSN? I mean Vita is an entire category in the Playstation store ffs.

I imagine your huge Playstation fan of a friend still has a dusty old PSOne hooked up to a CRT that can't get OTA TV, makes his calls on a StarTac dumbphone, and never uses the internet.

What I'm saying is he's not a huge Playstation fan.

 

[mightynine]

I was surprised at those PSP numbers, but I did a quick search of Wal-Marts and Gamestops in my area and it popped up in stock. That's unreal.

 

[vpance]

Xbone is doing fine. Not as good as ps4 but it'll be ok. The hyperbole in this thread is real. People claiming it's a disaster for Microsoft it's weird to me. I feel we will just have another ps3/xbox 360 thing going on where Xbone is going to have to catch up.

It depends if fine, being an eventual 2:1 or 2.5:1 WW sales disparity is something MS is ok with. Like if by the end of 2015, PS4 is at 33M and Xbone at 16M. Given that MS had internal forecasts of 100s of millions for this gen I'm not sure if even MS themselves could see the existing situation as being fine. They'll have to reign in expectations if they haven't already, but that'll probably lead them to call into question the opportunity cost of the Xbox brand within the Entertainment & Devices division.

 

[delta25]

Take note gaming industry, the PS4 is what happens when you actually listen to both the consumers and the developers/publishers and find that perfect balance.

 

[ascii42]

I was surprised at those PSP numbers, but I did a quick search of Wal-Marts and Gamestops in my area and it popped up in stock. That's unreal.

It's that 10 year lifecycle.

 

[GoofsterStud]

What kind of rock does a "huge Playstation fan" need to live under to not even know the Vita exists?

Funny story... I got a temp ban for saying the Vita is going to flop and being negative about it, and somehow people think I'm the biggest fanboy...or was it a warning, I can't remember.

 

[Sean*O]

What are the odds a 399 xbone changes nothing? Hey look it's the same price as the PS4... But it is still a much weaker system with inferior versions of all multiplats. Why would anyone buy it? Even for $50-$100 less I think most gamers will feel the PS4 would be worth the extra money to get the best version of games.

 

[weeeeezy]

In one country.

Who cares if it's one country or many? If there are gamers who buy the console and the numbers are good (Xbox numbers are still good, just not as good as Sonys) why should it matter?

 

[TsuWave]

I think just the price is killing the xbone more than any if the ps4's games and performance

If both consoles play a majority of of the same games and I doubt that the typical consumer cares about resolution or if the game is 30/60fps. They see that price tag and that glaring 100 dollar difference. That alone is the gamechanger.

the price is definetely a major hurdle for ms but i also think people underestimate the strength of the playstation brand to be honest, last time around ms had and made the most of the advantages presented to them like releasing one year ahead, this time around they literally have none of those opportunities to build on i've seen three of my friends saying they are happy to return to ps since sony got it together, essentiallym i think that even if there was price parity the ps4 just has a few more things going for it

 

[HammerOfThor]

Wait so how many did the PS4 sell?

 

[ambientmystic]

Wait so how many did the PS4 sell?

371k, exactly.

 

[Syphon Filter]

What are the odds a 399 xbone changes nothing? Hey look it's the same price as the PS4... But it is still a much weaker system with inferior versions of all multiplats. Why would anyone buy it? Even for $50-$100 less I think most gamers will feel the PS4 would be worth the extra money to get the best version of games.

It will do something. It's weaker but not much weaker,that is exageration. People will buy it for their exclusives like any other machine. The original xbox didnt get bought for being a more powerful machine.

 

[Dire]

Take note gaming industry, the PS4 is what happens when you actually listen to both the consumers and the developers/publishers and find that perfect balance.

I'm not really sure about that. I don't actually think the PS4 is a particularly compelling value on its own either, which is why I'm also bearish on its future. The hardware specs are mediocre and its library is imo one of the weakest at this point in a console's life. The big thing the PS4 has going for it is Microsoft. For somebody who just wants to go next gen because that's what you do then the PS4 is basically a no-brainer - better hardware, lower price, no immediate history of attempting to screw consumers with invasive DRM. But all those boons are relative. It's not like I'm saying "Amazing hardware." "Great price for the hardware." "A strong pro-player history." I think as we segue from early adopters who are adopting technology for the sake of adpoting technology as opposed to those looking for enticing propositions - the PS4 is going to start to have an uphill struggle as well.

 

[Moneal]

It will do something. It's weaker but not much weaker,that is exageration. People will buy it for their exclusives like any other machine. The original xbox didnt get bought for being a more powerful machine.

nope it got bought because it came out a year earlier, was cheaper and played cod and madden better. none of those are the case, and i doubt they will be the case at all this gen.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Now you see why they didn't do a PR statement. It's hard to spin those results. :-(

It also means that we're unlikely to get hints of European sales from now on in IR briefings.

Not really. What people don't tend to realize is that last gen Microsoft nearly doubled Sony's sales in the US - 1.7:1 going from memory. The reason both consoles came out about equal in the longrun was that only about 33% of Sony's sales came from the US, while around 60% of Microsoft's did.

If Microsoft can't crush in the US, they're almost certainly going to end up with a minuscule fraction of the market which is not only bad from a sales perspective, but also puts them in a terrible spot when it comes to trying to negotiate for exclusives, DLC priority, etc.

That seems an exaggeration. If they can maintain this level of disparity with the PS4 in the US, which comprises something like 40+% or so of the global market, that essentially amounts to 20% of the global market. 40% of the UK market amounts to another 4% or so. And even being outsold 4:1 in the remaining markets amounts to another 10% or so.

So ballparking it, and a lot can change obviously, that would mean something like 25-30% of the global market to Sony's 70-75%. Handily outsold obviously, but not really miniscule.

(for the purposes of simplicity I have ignored the Wii U.)

Sony for their part also isn't do much to cast away that stereotype either.

I've seen it written on here that Sony are something of a chameleon in this regard. For all their foibles, the company is very good at blending at not being a Japanese company, or a US company or a European company.

 

[sjagolinzer]

Question:



Since both consoles are ahead of the Wii and PS2, when do people think the "slowdown" going to happen? And the streams cross? It has to happen eventually right...

The xbox one will probably taper off until the fall but the ps4 line should stay pretty constant until demand is fully met.

 

[Aquamarine]

Not really. What people don't tend to realize is that last gen Microsoft nearly doubled Sony's sales in the US - 1.7:1 going from memory. The reason both consoles came out about equal in the longrun was that only about 33% of Sony's sales came from the US, while around 60% of Microsoft's did.

If Microsoft can't crush in the US, they're almost certainly going to end up with a minuscule fraction of the market which is not only bad from a sales perspective, but also puts them in a terrible spot when it comes to trying to negotiate for exclusives, DLC priority, etc.

Xbox (November 2001 - March 2002):
1.80 million

Xbox 360 (November 2005 - March 2006)
1.21 million (due to shortages)

Xbox One (November 2013 - March 2014)
2.53 million

Why does a lack of "dominating the USA market" automatically translate into the Xbox ending up with a "miniscule marketshare"?

I understand very well that the Xbox One is in a noticeably inferior retail position to the PS4 in the USA hardware-wise.

But I'm not seeing the absolute necessity for Microsoft to "crush the market" right now. The Xbox One has merits in the USA...maybe not up to Microsoft's initial expectations, but good enough to avoid a disaster like the Wii U or the Vita as they're encouraging others to invest in the Xbox One ecosystem.

That, inherently, is a sigh of relief. I see benefits to Major Nelson's "It's a marathon, not a sprint" beyond its obvious PR intentions.

 

[SwiftDeath]

I'm not really sure about that. I don't actually think the PS4 is a particularly compelling value on its own either, which is why I'm also bearish on its future. The hardware specs are mediocre and its library is imo one of the weakest at this point in a console's life. The big thing the PS4 has going for it is Microsoft. For somebody who just wants to go next gen because that's what you do then the PS4 is basically a no-brainer - better hardware, lower price, no immediate history of attempting to screw consumers with invasive DRM. But all those boons are relative. It's not like I'm saying "Amazing hardware." "Great price for the hardware." "A strong pro-player history." I think as we segue from early adopters who are adopting technology for the sake of adpoting technology as opposed to those looking for enticing propositions - the PS4 is going to start to have an uphill struggle as well.

So there are ~11M or so hardcore early adopters who just wanted a tech upgrade? Really? You don't think any casuals or softcore bought into next-gen yet?

 

[sjagolinzer]

And the USA is Microsoft's principal sales territory.

The fact that it's doing relatively well here...is a sigh of relief at the very least for everyone at MSFT.

But you gotta think Microsoft was expecting to extent their market share in the US after becoming overconfident in their brand power. So even parity is probably concerning to them.