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[thestopsign]

Might be a little ambitious with the switch only having been on the market 8 months so limited userbase

I guess lets see how Mario Kart 8 Deluxe and Splatoon 2 perform in their first month to see how well a Mario game can do in a month. Mario Kart is tough because of only having 3 days, but I think it could do 500k+. Splatoon 2 should be in the 500k range too. If those turn out to be true I don't see Odyssey having a problem hitting above a million in November with probable increased stock of Switch and Black Friday hype.

 

[nextgeneration]

Mario Kart will make it into April's NPD reporting period, right? It's gonna be interesting to see how many Switches get sold in April.

 

[Welfare]

Mario Kart will make it into April's NPD reporting period, right? It's gonna be interesting to see how many Switches get sold in April.

Yup, 2 days.

Wii U sales went up from 48K in April 2014 to 61K in May 2014 even though MK8 had 2 days as well, with the bundle selling ~25K in that short amount of time. Switch will probably see bigger gains than the Wii U did just because Nintendo will be shipping a large amount of stock for the release.

 

[Deleted member 465307]

What is the tracking period for April's NPD going to be?

 

[Welfare]

What is the tracking period for April's NPD going to be?

April 2nd - April 29th

 

[nextgeneration]

Yup, 2 days.

Wii U sales went up from 48K in April 2014 to 61K in May 2014 even though MK8 had 2 days as well, with the bundle selling ~25K in that short amount of time. Switch will probably see bigger gains than the Wii U did just because Nintendo will be shipping a large amount of stock for the release.

Cool, thanks. Yeah, assuming Nintendo is able to ship more Switch's in April versus March, there's no way it could outsell the 900k it sold during the launch month, can it? Has any console in history ever sold more in the month after launch? April will be very interesting!

 

[Zedark]

Cool, thanks. Yeah, assuming Nintendo is able to ship more Switch's in April versus March, there's no way it could outsell the 900k it sold during the launch month, can it? Has any console in history ever sold more in the month after launch? April will be very interesting!

Plenty have, actually. Wii and DS, and maybe wii u as well. Difference is of course that those systems launched in the holiday period, so they had strong holiday sales (and more importantly strong shipments).

 

[John Harker]

Ubisoft proudly announced that they will be releasing less new IP going forward: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1342507

I saw that, but I wouldn't read into it as the end... they definitely have new Ip coming

 

[Welfare]

Cool, thanks. Yeah, assuming Nintendo is able to ship more Switch's in April versus March, there's no way it could outsell the 900k it sold during the launch month, can it? Has any console in history ever sold more in the month after launch? April will be very interesting!

I meant bigger gains from previous weeks of sold out sales. Like if Switch was selling 50K each week this month, I'd think for MK8D, Nintendo ships close to 100K. Sorry for the confusion.

 

[Dark Cloud]

I saw that, but I wouldn't read into it as the end... they definitely have new Ip coming

Yoshi X Rabbids?

 

[Zedark]

Mario X Rabbids?

FTFY.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

I'm interested in the physical/digital ratio of Persona 5.

 

[Ashtar]

Ubisoft gotta be stopped lol have they had an actual bomb this gen

Steep was anemic, but it wasn't marketed at all, they pretty much pooped it out. I can't imagine they invested that much money into it though.
I think Ghost Recon will retain the best selling title until Injustice 2 crushes the buildings.
Low Key WB is in for another big year, I think they will top ubi in revenue again this year assuming they have a third triple A title (injustice and Shadow being the others)

 

[Zedark]

I'm interested in the physical/digital ratio of Persona 5.

Is Persona 5 outrageously sold out in the US as well? In that case, we could see the digital ratio go through the roof.

 

[Kill3r7]

Is Persona 5 outrageously sold out in the US as well? In that case, we could see the digital ratio go through the roof.

Nope.

 

[xevis]

Dat qualifier immediately and only after #2!

 

[Kolx]

But it's also unfair because Zelda sold as much as it could on Switch (and then some, more than 100% attach rate) so there's no doubt it would have sold better if more Switch were available. So there's arguments for both. All in all I think it's silly to compare, especially when both did really good.

Which is my point on one of the reason why Zelda is higher than Horizon, but you're right that they're arguments for both sides.

"Not fair?" LOL...you absolutely have to take total userbase into account when comparing game sales. That's a ludicrous argument to exclude that major factor. Early in console launches, it can have a huge effect on game sale numbers. Simple mathematics.

I'm not saying to exclude it completely but to compare it in strict number aka 4:1 is plain wrong imo due to the reason I listed.

 

[John Harker]

Steep was anemic, but it wasn't marketed at all, they pretty much pooped it out. I can't imagine they invested that much money into it though.
I think Ghost Recon will retain the best selling title until Injustice 2 crushes the buildings.
Low Key WB is in for another big year, I think they will top ubi in revenue again this year assuming they have a third triple A title (injustice and Shadow being the others)

Interesting, you think injustice and shadow will outsell for honor and ghost?

I'd have to spend some time thinking about it, by off the cuff it seems like a tight call. WB would need to flex a lot of muscle

 

[Yoshi]

Plenty have, actually. Wii and DS, and maybe wii u as well. Difference is of course that those systems launched in the holiday period, so they had strong holiday sales (and more importantly strong shipments).

I think it is also important to consider if a console released at the end or the beginning of a month. Switch had a full month at release.

 

[Kill3r7]

Interesting, you think injustice and shadow will outsell for honor and ghost?

I'd have to spend some time thinking about it, by off the cuff it seems like a tight call. WB would need to flex a lot of muscle

If Injustice does similar numbers to MKX then maybe but otherwise UBI has this, since we are likely getting a new AC title this fall.

 

[KillerMan91]

Nope.

That is why I expect that it will have pretty impressive numbers in next NPD. Game shipped almost million to the west during launch and was nowhere to be seen in Europe so most of copies must have gone to NA. They didn't even localize it to the major European languages so US must have been the biggest focus by far in terms of shipments.

 

[Ashtar]

Interesting, you think injustice and shadow will outsell for honor and ghost?

I'd have to spend some time thinking about it, by off the cuff it seems like a tight call. WB would need to flex a lot of muscle

MKX was huge (8th best seller of 2015) and I think with Justice League, BvS and Suicide Squad Injustice 2 will be even bigger

Shadow is also going to have a huge marketing budget thanks to Microsoft and it's going to release before it has major competition (that we know of) and Shadow of Mordor sold 2.5million on PC alone so according to my custom algorithm it sold around 7-8 million units across all platforms

Additionally For honor looks to be losing it's stride

So yeah I think I2 and War combined beat Ghost Recon and For Honor combined

 

[Jaded Alyx]

- If you download Zelda you already used all your storage... so you can't download another game.
.

Explain how this is accurate and true.

 

[Kill3r7]

MKX was huge (8th best seller of 2015) and I think with Justice League, BvS and Suicide Squad Injustice 2 will be even bigger

Shadow is also going to have a huge marketing budget thanks to Microsoft and it's going to release before it has major competition (that we know of) and Shadow of Mordor sold 2.5million on PC alone so according to my custom algorithm it sold around 7-8 million units across all platforms

Additionally For honor looks to be losing it's stride

So yeah I think I2 and War combined beat Ghost Recon and For Honor combined

I think you are discounting AC at your own peril as it will likely end up being the best selling game of the 5 listed above.

 

[ethomaz]

Explain how this is accurate and true.

With Zelda downloaded you have about 10GB free of the 32GB... not enough for another AAA game... even if you get another game below 10GB it will ends with 2 games that hardly change what I said.

Switch owners are choosing physical over digital because it is a better deal due storage limitation.

You can have 20+ physical games to leave anywhere you go with little space in your bag.

 

[dragonflys545]

Explain how this is accurate and true.

My guess is if you don't go wasting money for another memory card, then you will be limited to internal storage. But Yeah switch internal storage is garbage compare to its conpetitors. I don't care if it's portable, this shit is unacceptable.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

With Zelda downloaded you have about 10GB free of the 32GB... not enough for another AAA game... even if you get another game below 10GB it will ends with 2 games that hardly change what I said.

Switch owners are choosing physical over digital because it is a better deal due storage limitation.

You can have 20+ physical games to leave anywhere you go with little space in your bag.

You seem to be forgetting that many Switch owners don't care about carrying games with them, as they don't use the system as a portable.

Also you yourself changed what you said by suddenly adding "AAA".

 

[LegendofLex]

With Zelda downloaded you have about 10GB free of the 32GB... not enough for another AAA game... even if you get another game below 10GB it will ends with 2 games that hardly change what I said.

I can name about 20 games available for Switch right now that could all fit within the remaining 10 GB.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

I can name about 20 games available for Switch right now that could all fit within the remaining 10 GB.

They're not "AAA" so they don't count, friend.

 

[ethomaz]

I can name about 20 games available for Switch right now that could all fit within the remaining 10 GB.

"even if you get another game below 10GB it will ends with 2 games that hardly change what I said"

 

[Jaded Alyx]

"even if you get another game below 10GB it will ends with 2 games that hardly change what I said"

This is still wrong.

 

[Ashtar]

I think you are discounting AC at your own peril as it will likely end up being the best selling game of the 5 listed above.

I'm not talking about ac, shoot I'm the number 1 ac fanboy! I was only saying the shadow and injustice will outsell gr and FH
I also said that if wb had another triple a game like *cough* batman *cough* up its sleeve than yeah I can see them out doing Ubisoft again assuming South Park was delayed out of this year (big assumption)
I love ac games the only ones I didn't buy were 1 and rogue BUT ac has burned a lot of people in the past and given the poor performance of watch dogs 2 (not even in the top 20 games of 2016) I've adjusted my ac forecast down a bit. Now if the marketing push is really well done it could tip things and Ubisoft is one of the best marketers in the biz so I can't count them out but for now I don't see ac selling more than 6 milly

 

[ethomaz]

This is still wrong.

It is not but well...

The point is the Switch support physical over digital and that was clear even before launch... you won't travel with a portable with 2-3 games installed and delete and download games with a portable is even a bigger issue unless you have WiFi access with good connect everywhere.

 

[Man God]

Until next friday Zelda BOTW is the only AAA game on the Switch.

And that's not a knock on the launch lineup, which is pretty good all in all. It's an issue of budget.

 

[LegendofLex]

"even if you get another game below 10GB it will ends with 2 games that hardly change what I said"

This is the part of your post I was responding to?

You could buy 20 of the games currently out for Switch and fit them all on the remaining 10 GB. (Many games out on Switch are in the low 100s of MB range.)

 

[ethomaz]

This is the part of your post I was responding to?

You could buy 20 of the games currently out for Switch and fit them all on the remaining 10 GB.

List these games and you will understand the issue in your claim.

You probably won't have Zelda and the new Mario together in the same Switch unless you bought an add SD.

 

[LegendofLex]

List these games and you will understand the issue in your claim.

The problem with your claim is:

1) You didn't specify AAA games in the part of the post I was responding to

2) Most Switch games aren't AAA games, and so wouldn't take up the remaining 10 GB

3) Most Switch owners will probably buy games that aren't AAA games, meaning that restricting this line of discussion to AAA games is disingenuous

you damn well can fit more than one additional game on Switch even if you've downloaded Zelda.

 

[ethomaz]

The problem with your claim is:

1) You didn't specify AAA games in the part of the post I was responding to

2) Most Switch games aren't AAA games, and so wouldn't take up the remaining 10 GB

3) Most Switch owners will probably buy games that aren't AAA games, meaning that restricting this line of discussion to AAA games is disingenuous

Probably most of these games you will list are cheap digital ones... that was not my point at all.

Let's guess... what big retail games will launch on Switch:

Splatoon 2
Mario Oddisey
FE

Well there are a lot others and you probably won't have enough space to download one or two them with Zelda.

 

[Massa]

List these games and you will understand the issue in your claim.

You probably won't have Zelda and the new Mario together in the same Switch unless you bought an add SD.

Wii U Mario is 1.6Gb.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

Probably most of these games you will list are cheap digital ones... that was not my point at all.

I didn't see you address my post above:

You seem to be forgetting that many Switch owners don't care about carrying games with them, as they don't use the system as a portable.

Also you yourself changed what you said by suddenly adding "AAA".

 

[LegendofLex]

Probably most of these games you will list are cheap digital ones... that was not my point at all.

Indeed, they are.

But that's why Switch has small storage space by default. Because most of its games are cheap non-AAA ones that don't take up a lot of storage space.

 

[frankie_baby]

With Zelda downloaded you have about 10GB free of the 32GB... not enough for another AAA game... even if you get another game below 10GB it will ends with 2 games that hardly change what I said.

Switch owners are choosing physical over digital because it is a better deal due storage limitation.

You can have 20+ physical games to leave anywhere you go with little space in your bag.

No different from Wii U but a damn site more convenient to slot in an SD card than attach a bulky hard drive

 

[ethomaz]

Wii U Mario is 1.6Gb.

What the size of game on Wii U has to do with storage space on Switch?

I didn't see you address my post above:

You made a claim and I believe there are gamers that won't use it like a Portable... I had nothing to address to begin.

Indeed, they are.

But that's why Switch has small storage space by default. Because most of its games are cheap non-AAA ones that don't take up a lot of storage space.

Let's see how big space the retail releases will take on Switch... right there is one called Zelda.

I hope Nintendo and 3rd will put a lot of games there.

I believe physical is the way to go with Switch and it will show on digital sales ratio being way lower than any other console this generation... even lower than Wii U.

 

[Version 3.0]

Plenty have, actually. Wii and DS, and maybe wii u as well. Difference is of course that those systems launched in the holiday period, so they had strong holiday sales (and more importantly strong shipments).

Systems that sold more month 2 vs month 1 (US NPD):

Nintendo DS (480k vs 746k)
Playstation 3 (197k vs 490k)
Wii (476k vs 604k)
Wii U (425k vs 460k)

Ones that came close(ish):
Nintendo 64 (327k vs 319k)
Xbox (712k vs 691k)
Gamecube (647k vs 558k)
Playstation Vita (225k vs 205k)
Xbox One (909k vs 908k)

Out of all of those, only the Vita was not a September or later launch.

I wouldn't be looking for the Switch to set any records next month, though. The highest April on record is just over 1 million units, set in April 2009, by the DS. If they want to settle for 2nd place, they'd have to beat 714k, which was the Wii in April 2008.

And that 908k for the Xbox One is the best 2nd month on record as well.

 

[frankie_baby]

What the size of game on Wii U has to do with storage space on Switch?


You made a claim and I believe there are gamers that won't use it like a Portable... I had nothing to address to begin.


Let's see how big space the retail releases will take on Switch... right there is one called Zelda.

I hope Nintendo and 3rd will put a lot of games there.

I believe physical is the way to go with Switch and it will show on digital sales ratio being way lower than any other console this generation... even lower than Wii U.

People that bought digitally on Wii U were happy to buy a hard drive why is it so difficult to imagine at least as big a proportion would slot in an SD card?

 

[MTC100]

Shooting shit with friends remains the king.

Seems like it. Though I fully expect Zelda to outperform Wildlands by the end of 2017.

 

[ethomaz]

People that bought digitally on Wii U were happy to buy a hard drive why is it so difficult to imagine at least as big a proportion would slot in an SD card?

Because Wii U has not a feature called portable.

I understand you want to compare Switch with Wii U but it is nothing like it... it is hybrid and you take it like a portable.

I understand there are gamer that will use it mostly below the TV like a console but I'm sure one time or another they will use it like a portable and take it to bathroom... that is why you have the option to do that even if you don't need... it is convenient and gamers that don't need it will use too... that is the biggest selling point of Switch.

Big retail games will reach sizes of 10 to 20GB... some will even reach the max cart size of 32GB (24GB+ games won't be even downloaded without you don't have a additional SD card).

There are two options for that:

1) Go physical with small carts.
2) Buy a expensive SD that will only makes the things easy (128GB is a nice option but not enough in my opinion).

I believe from these two options the "go physical" will be more usual in Switch's owners and that will show in sales with digital ratio being lower than others consoles... even lower than Wii U.

 

[frankie_baby]

Because Wii U has not a feature called portable.

I understand you want to compare Switch with Wii U but it is nothing like it... it is hybrid and you take it like a portable.

I understand there are gamer that will use it mostly below the TV like a console but I'm sure one time or another they will use it like a portable and take it to bathroom... that is why you have the option to do that even if you don't need... it is convenient and gamers that don't need it will use too... that is the biggest selling point of Switch.

Big retail games will reach sizes of 10 to 20GB... some will even reach the max cart size of 32GB (24GB+ games won't be even downloaded without you don't have a additional SD card).

There are two options for that:

1) Go physical with small carts.
2) Buy a expensive SD that will only makes the things easy (128GB is a nice option but not enough in my opinion).

I believe from these two options the "go physical" will be more usual in Switch's owners and that will show in sales with digital ratio being lower than others consoles... even lower than Wii U.

People bought SD cards for 3ds, some games had chunky digital ratios (animal crossing in japan sold a shit tonne digitally) i imagine most of those owners at the least had SD cards

I just dont understand how it being "portable" reduces the chance of people expanding storage compared to a home console and the pruce if SD cards is falling all the time, i could buy a 200gig card for not much more than i paid for my wii u hard drive

 

[SnowFlakeCake]

Horizon is a very good game, glad to see it had done so well. Sony's games don't usually have very high ceilings when it comes to sales however they are building up a decent portfolio now. Horizon is going to be the start of a big franchise, God of War will be big, GT Sport will do it's thang in EU and TLOU2 is going to be huge.

Days Gone will flop though, don't think Spiderman will do anything more than 500k or so first month which is still decent, Detroit will do Idon'tcarejustreleasethefuckinggame.

 

[Obliterator]

I don't see Injustice 2 being bigger than MKX but I still for sure think it will be huge. It's going to be substantially bigger than the 1st one which sold very well.