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NPD Sales Results for November 2015 [Up3: Combined Hardware For PS4 + XB1 + Wii U]

C

Conduit

Banned
Sterok said:
30-35 million seems way too low for the XB1. That would be around half of where I expect the 3DS to end up (65 millionish) when it still has lots of big games coming, even if multiplatform. I'm thinking 40-45 million, with 50 million not out of the question.
Click to expand...

At this selling rate, it's not low. It's the upper limit for someone. I predict 45 mil. at max.

XBone outside US/UK/Latin America is selling like shit
 
C

Conduit

Banned
orochi91 said:
But why a JRPG?

If the goal is to diversify your lineup, why not fund a Western RPG, since that would be something that both diversifies your 1st-party portfolio AND stands to have a shot at selling well.

OR better yet, why not try to revive the JRPG IPs they already own?
Click to expand...

Hm... Imagine open-world DMC with dragons. That's Scalebound. Hey, DMC is type of a game for Xbox community.
 
D

Dash_Riprock

Member
Sterok said:
30-35 million seems way too low for the XB1. That would be around half of where I expect the 3DS to end up (65 millionish) when it still has lots of big games coming, even if multiplatform. I'm thinking 40-45 million, with 50 million not out of the question.
Click to expand...

The XB1 is irrelevant anywhere that isn't US/UK, and even there its losing to the PS4. Where are these 20-30 million extra units going to come from?
 
AgentP

AgentP

Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
Bgamer90 said:
Speaking of multiplats, it looks like NBA 2K16 is doing very well. The NBA brand as a whole has been gaining popularity so that helps. I'm not sure as to what EA can do with NBA Live at this point.

And since we were talking about Halo, here's another tweet from him stating that Halo 5 sold better than Halo Wars in retail (digital sales not included). Not a big feat since it's a mainline game vs. an RTS spin-off but definitely better than it not happening (heh).
Click to expand...

Not only is it no feat, its an embarrassing comparison. Halo Wars sold nothing.
 
C

Conduit

Banned
etta said:
Uhmm, low sales are happening because the customer isn't there, not because the games aren't good. FM6, H5, ROTR, SO are all very well reviewed games, and had they been on the PS4 they would have sold equal to what they deserved based on their quality.
Apple doesn't sell nearly as many iPhones as Samsung does Galaxy because Samsung has so many models at varying price levels, but the iPhones are still in general the best reviewed phones and have the highest customer satisfaction.
Xbox One exclusives aren't selling as well as they should because of the system's situation, not because the customers aren't satisfied with them.
Click to expand...


So, another "install base" excuse. Sorry, but that's dumb.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
Daily report on Amazon hehe...

the UC PS4 bundle is simply sold out (#9 ranking for the whole year, ahead of every other SKU, crazy), and the "other re-sellers" are trying to sell it at $349. PS4 BF bundle still doing very well being continuously #1 in the sales rankings (hourly) while the closest competition is at #15 trending down atm (XB1 GeoW @ $299).

In the monthly which was updated yet again since yesterday:

#2: PS4 BF Bundle
#11: PS4 UC bundle
#24: WiiU Mario Kart 8 bundle
#28: XB1 GeoW bundle
#54: XB1 Holiday bundle
 
K

kswiston

Member
Dash_Riprock said:
The XB1 is irrelevant anywhere that isn't US/UK, and even there its losing to the PS4. Where are these 20-30 million extra units going to come from?
Click to expand...

30M seems like a large lowball for XB1 considering the fact that the OG Xbox hit 24M shipped and of that, 16M were in North America.

Xbox 1 will be over 16M in the US alone by the end of next year. Non-US sales will also be over 8M by the end of 2016. Given that, do you really think that a mere 6M (or even 11M) is likely for 2017-2019 combined?
 
K

Kyoufu

Member
etta said:
Xbox One exclusives aren't selling as well as they should because of the system's situation, not because the customers aren't satisfied with them.
Click to expand...

What situation though? Halo 5 and RotTR underperformed in regions (NA and UK) where Xbox One is not doing bad in.

Halo's decline comes from multiple factors such as Halo 4's lack of quality, Destiny and MCC's disastrous release.

Tomb Raider typically performs better on PlayStation platforms so denying that user base the game was stupid from the beginning.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
kswiston said:
30M seems like a large lowball for XB1 considering the fact that the OG Xbox hit 24M shipped and of that, 16M were in North America.

Xbox 1 will be over 16M in the US alone by the end of next year. Non-US sales will also be over 8M by the end of 2016. Given that, do you really think that a mere 6M (or even 11M) is likely for 2017-2019 combined?
Click to expand...

I don't think the XB1 is going to pull 5 million in the US alone next year.
 
K

Kyougar

Member
etta said:
Uhmm, low sales are happening because the customer isn't there, not because the games aren't good. FM6, H5, ROTR, SO are all very well reviewed games, and had they been on the PS4 they would have sold equal to what they deserved based on their quality.
Apple doesn't sell nearly as many iPhones as Samsung does Galaxy because Samsung has so many models at varying price levels, but the iPhones are still in general the best reviewed phones and have the highest customer satisfaction.
Xbox One exclusives aren't selling as well as they should because of the system's situation, not because the customers aren't satisfied with them.
Click to expand...

So Xbox One is the iPhone of the Console space? ....

Microsoft must diversify their portfolio and not try to set all on Megafranchises.
Halo, gears and Forza were their main IP's for a long time. That is a very narrow group of gamers. 2 of these games have overwhelming opponents with Call of Duty and GT. that wouldnt be so bad if they were only 2 of 30 "unique" IP's in a generation but they are essentially 2 of 3. And we dont know if Gears is healthy.

the 360 DID try. but these were one-offs and they were quickly canned after the JRPG's tanked.

microsoft should have invested in new Studios with new IP's or old IP's and work on establishing a wide Area of different type of Games and Genres. Don't make everything AAA. Do smaller A and AA games in addition to AAA Games.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Primethius said:
I don't think the XB1 is going to pull 5 million in the US alone next year.
Click to expand...

It doesn't need to if the goal is 16M LTD. We are at ~9.8M as of the end of November in the US. A flat December still puts the system at 11M by the end of 2015.

You don't think that the XB1 can do 3.75-4M next year?
 
D

Dash_Riprock

Member
kswiston said:
30M seems like a large lowball for XB1 considering the fact that the OG Xbox hit 24M shipped and of that, 16M were in North America.

Xbox 1 will be over 16M in the US alone by the end of next year. Non-US sales will also be over 8M by the end of 2016. Given that, do you really think that a mere 6M (or even 11M) is likely for 2017-2019 combined?
Click to expand...

5 million? In one year? With the PS4 breathing down its neck every step of the way?

You don't think that the XB1 can do 3.75-4M next year?
Click to expand...

See above.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
kswiston said:
It doesn't need to if the goal is 16M LTD. We are at ~9.8M as of the end of November in the US. A flat December still puts the system at 11M by the end of 2015.

You don't think that the XB1 can do 3.75-4M next year?
Click to expand...

I mean, I think it'll do 4 million. I just don't think it'll do 5 million to hit the 16 million mark you were suggesting.
 
R

Raist

Banned
By the way the PS4 is now at €299 at Amazon France. I think the price cut in EU was suggested a few pages ago. It's just the console without games though.
Seems like it hasn't happened yet in Germany, Spain and for instance, or maybe it's out of stock already.
 
J

Jack The Nipper

Banned
So quite a few people want the whimsical, explorative, adventures, mansion exploring, air percussion tomb raider? Few cut scenes etc

Cheaper to make too


Sign me up.

If they showed that tomb raider game with nice ultra high iq visuals I'm sure a lot of us would freak out.
 
R

Ricerocket

Member
etta said:
Uhmm, low sales are happening because the customer isn't there, not because the games aren't good. FM6, H5, ROTR, SO are all very well reviewed games, and had they been on the PS4 they would have sold equal to what they deserved based on their quality.
Apple doesn't sell nearly as many iPhones as Samsung does Galaxy because Samsung has so many models at varying price levels, but the iPhones are still in general the best reviewed phones and have the highest customer satisfaction.
Xbox One exclusives aren't selling as well as they should because of the system's situation, not because the customers aren't satisfied with them.
Click to expand...

It's also possible the games aren't interesting...

I never cared for Halo so Halo 5 didn't matter. Forza? Not a fan of racing sims. Gears? I played the first two on 360 and don't care about it anymore.

If the next box continues that trend guess what? I am not interested. They could bring their trinity to PC, I still wouldn't play them so it's not the system's situation.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
benny_a said:
So it's the PS4.
Click to expand...

8y5ABu4.gif
 
K

Kyoufu

Member
Ricerocket said:
It's also possible the games aren't interesting...

I never cared for Halo so Halo 5 didn't matter. Forza? Not a fan of racing sims. Gears? I played the first two on 360 and don't care about it anymore.

If the next box continues that trend guess what? I am not interested.
Click to expand...

Why did you buy an Xbox One? Honestly want to know.
 
I

IvanJ

Banned
kswiston said:
30M seems like a large lowball for XB1 considering the fact that the OG Xbox hit 24M shipped and of that, 16M were in North America.

Xbox 1 will be over 16M in the US alone by the end of next year. Non-US sales will also be over 8M by the end of 2016. Given that, do you really think that a mere 6M (or even 11M) is likely for 2017-2019 combined?
Click to expand...

I seriously doubt that it will sell 5 million in the US. And doubt even more that it can sell 3 million plus in the rest of world. Doubt it will sell 2 million at this pace.
 
R

Ricerocket

Member
Kyoufu said:
Oh I thought you were speaking for somebody that owns an Xbox One.

Now I'm even more confused.
Click to expand...

Sorry I am speaking as someone who had a 360. He saying the games aren't the problem but the system but I am just saying it's the games themselves and why I don't have an X1.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
kswiston said:
Oops. I messed up my own math. 16 - 11 is not 4. Duh :p


What's the YTD for the XB1 this year?
Click to expand...

2015: ~ 3556k

In comparison, 2014: ~ 4374k

So a similar increase from last year that we saw in November should put it at 4.7 mil by the end of the year.

I expect it to pull slightly lower numbers next year as both consoles are likely to have price parity next year. So, I'm thinking it'll settle into the 4.5-4.6 million range next year.

Unless there's a $50 gap between the PS4 and X1 for a majority of the year. Then 5 million might be possible, if still a bit optimistic.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Primethius said:
2015: ~ 3556k

In comparison, 2014: ~ 4374k

So a similar increase from last year that we saw in November should put it at 4.7 mil by the end of the year.

I expect it to pull slightly lower numbers next year as both consoles are likely to have price parity next year. So, I'm thinking it'll settle into the 4.5-4.6 million range next year.

Unless there's a $50 gap between the PS4 and X1 for a majority of the year. Then 5 million might be possible, if still a bit optimistic.
Click to expand...

Ok. 15.5M by the end of 2016 is more likely for the US then. My point still stands though. 30M LTD makes no sense given sales thus far. New consoles in 2018 and shitty legacy sales after that should at least get the US total to the 22-23M range. Rest of the world sales are low, but they aren't 25% of the XB1's WW LTD low.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
kswiston said:
Ok. 15.5M by the end of 2016 is more likely for the US then. My point still stands though. 30M LTD makes no sense given sales thus far.
Click to expand...

I think 30 is definitely low balling it. 40 is what I have it pegged at if the current trends continue. But I think the console probably lost a lot of steam in many EU countries and the ROTW post-launch and thus, I wouldn't be surprised if 35 million is the more accurate number as we start to get more data on where the XB1 stands outside of the US/UK.
 
S

spatenfloot

Member
The people saying Microsoft needs to create new IPs and first party development to fix the Xbone forget how long it takes to make a game. Even if they started immediately, it would be at least 3 years at best before it was ready. The gen will be over for Microsoft by that time. They would be better off focusing that development on the next Xbox's games because it will be time for it to launch by then.
 
K

kswiston

Member
spatenfloot said:
The people saying Microsoft needs to create new IPs and first party development to fix the Xbone forget how long it takes to make a game. Even if they started immediately, it would be at least 3 years at best before it was ready. The gen will be over for Microsoft by that time. They would be better off focusing that development on the next Xbox's games because it will be time for it to launch by then.
Click to expand...

If XB1 ends at 35M worldwide, I doubt there will even be a next Xbox. What would be the point? They aren't Nintendo. Microsoft has much more profitable products, and they can spin the Xbox branding into a software service (and accessory line) on their other hardware.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
spatenfloot said:
The people saying Microsoft needs to create new IPs and first party development to fix the Xbone forget how long it takes to make a game. Even if they started immediately, it would be at least 3 years at best before it was ready. The gen will be over for Microsoft by that time. They would be better off focusing that development on the next Xbox's games because it will be time for it to launch by then.
Click to expand...
Exactly.
Also, they need studios to make these games. And as far as I can see, all their studios were quite busy doing the usual stuff.

I think I remember that we had a discussion a year ago or so where there was a list of new studios MS bought or founded. Does anyone know what became of these?
 
I

Imru’ al-Qays

Banned
igordennis said:
As a brazilian this is (anedoctally) true. Playstation just has way more mindshare and recognition here, mostly because of the PS2.
Click to expand...

Microsoft has really dropped the ball on developing markets. The 360 should be the new PS2 - sell it for $99 and tolerate widescale piracy to build the brand. But Microsoft isn't doing that, so the low end of the market is STILL a bunch of antique PS2s and will be until the start of the next gen.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Another interesting tweet from ZhugeEX. Current gen has been similar to the PS1 and N64 gen when it comes to North American sales.

JHUYLdl.jpg
 
M

Maniel

Banned
Bgamer90 said:
Another interesting tweet from ZhugeEX. Current gen has been similar to the PS1 and N64 gen when it comes to North American sales.

JHUYLdl.jpg
Click to expand...

I could see 8th gen being a little different and instead of being down next year like 5th gen was, it could hold steady. Next year could see $299 consoles all year, and $250 deals on black friday.

Edit: Also, year 1 for gen 8 is Wii U only, so may as well disregard it in the sales trend.
 
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