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NPD September 2012 Sales Results [Up2: Madden, Fixed 3DS Minimum]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Yoshi
Headmaster of Console Warrior Jugendstrafanstalt
25k? Sure you don't mean 250k?
OldJadedGamer
Banned
Never happen in the States.
3DS sales may increase when Wii U is out.
Not so much because of upcoming cross play connectivity, but because Nintendo will advertise Wii U like hell. Good media coverage is coming. In other words, Nintendo will make the news, the brand will be reinforced. There will be collateral gains for the 3DS.
Not so much because of upcoming cross play connectivity, but because Nintendo will advertise Wii U like hell. Good media coverage is coming. In other words, Nintendo will make the news, the brand will be reinforced. There will be collateral gains for the 3DS.
terrisus
Member
When all we get for NPD game lists now are largely filled with aggregates of games that were released across a variety of systems, it's a very rare game for any system which can show up on the charts while being released on only one platform (only 3 this month - 2 on PC, and one from the "1st party game on 3DS" group that is excluded from consideration).
Doesn't mean games not on the chart are doing badly, it just means the charts we've been getting since the changeover aren't really very useful for much of anything.
RukusProvider
Banned
creamsugar, can we get borderlands 2 console split? Thanks!
The Faceless Master
Member
so... DOA?
Yoshi
Headmaster of Console Warrior Jugendstrafanstalt
Ah sorry, misinterpreted. So 50k<Vita<62k?
specialguy
Banned
So, software only down 14%, several hit titles, Madden 13 up YoY, market stabilizing a bit? Hardware price cuts would probably help further. And there's always the digital factor.
I dunno, expected more out of Borderlands 2. Seemed like EVERYBODY was buying it. Guess I expected like 7 million or something.
I feel like my internal numbers system is all out of whack or something. Somehow I feel like 1.48m is not even really enough of a hit. Yet reading about 2m for Gears 3 last Sep, I'm sure I considered that a huge hit. What is wrong with my brain? Needs game software sales recalibration.
I dunno, expected more out of Borderlands 2. Seemed like EVERYBODY was buying it. Guess I expected like 7 million or something.
I feel like my internal numbers system is all out of whack or something. Somehow I feel like 1.48m is not even really enough of a hit. Yet reading about 2m for Gears 3 last Sep, I'm sure I considered that a huge hit. What is wrong with my brain? Needs game software sales recalibration.
CadetMahoney
Member
Yea, wasn't expecting that.
Petrae
Member
Just for fun...
I posted this on Twitter back on October 1st, predicting sales of $850 million for September.
I was pretty damned close, as it turns out. .02% off. I never really got the hang of predicting unit sales all that well, but I'll take this one and smile.
<self-congratulation mode OFF>
I posted this on Twitter back on October 1st, predicting sales of $850 million for September.
I was pretty damned close, as it turns out. .02% off. I never really got the hang of predicting unit sales all that well, but I'll take this one and smile.
<self-congratulation mode OFF>
Hiro_Kunimi_80
Member
Doa ( along with NG) died in 2008
Petrae
Member
I'm with you, actually. I expected better results from Borderlands 2, closer to 2 million. The ad campaign was strong, the IP had grown in popularity, and it shipped in a fairly quiet month. I get that digital sales may improve the picture somewhat, but less than 1.5 million across multiple platforms doesn't strike me as huge-- even with the cool "for effect" percentage comparisons given versus the first game.
Borderlands was different. New IP. Not a crazy amount of fanfare. Expectations should have been (and were) higher this time, and I think there's an argument to be made for falling short in terms of sales.
SkylineRKR
Member
So Tekken is dead. I didn't expect it to become a smash hit, but I did expect it to outsell T6 by a small margin (which initially didn't do that well until they slashed its price). Difference seems to be that Namco didn't overship this time.
The Faceless Master
Member
unlike Ninja Gaiden, DOA is actually better after Itagaki left.
perfectchaos007
Member
Damn, 3DS numbers are horrid. When was last years price drop? August or September? I think the 3DS needs to drop to $149 for the Holiday season to sell well. Kids will be asking for iPads and iTouches as opposed to 3DS' and Vita, so Nintendo needs to make price point the selling point.
metalslimer
Member
August. And it honestly depends on your definition of sell "well". It'll probably match last year's numbers going into this holiday, but Nintendo was likely looking for a much bigger boost from NSMB2 and the XL than they seem to be getting.
Petrae
Member
Matching Q4 2011 numbers for 3DS is going to be a tall order. More than 2.6 million this OND? I don't believe so. The software lineup is good-- not necessarily great-- and I don't know what the hook is going to be to get consumers interested this year.
perfectchaos007
Member
I wish I could feel sorry for them, but other than Mario games the 3DS really doesn't have much to offer as of yet. And I own a 3DS with 9 games which doesn't include the games I've bought in the e-shop plus my 20 Ambassador games. Even the game I'm playing on my 3DS now is a DS game ( Pokemon White 2 ). I honestly feel that Nintendo should have flipped the release dates of NSMB2 and Paper Mario 3DS in the states. Paper Mario is not nearly as strong of a franchise as NSMB, and that would have been the perfect title to sell units before Christmas. I love Paper Mario, but it isn't a system seller to nearly as many people as NSMB. Of course nothing tops Pokemon, but I'm assuming we're 2 to 3 years away from a main series Pokemon game on 3DS.
Gamespot said:
Lets get to work , GAF!
Going by "imaginary numbers" we have for August:
PS3 ~ 35k/week = > 175k for September
WII ~ 18k/week = < 90k for September
PSV ~ 9.5k/week = >48k for September
3DS ~ 44k/week = > 221k for September
NDS ~ 25k/week = > 125k for September
These are the mere base lines. Now lets compare this to creamsugars brackets:
PS3 - baseline >175k - bracket between 200k and 250k - looks like a nice improvement over August on a weekly sales basis
WII - baseline <90k - bracket between 50k and 100k - the slow fade continues
PSV - baseline >48k - bracket between 50k and 100k - looks like the bundles helped to stabilize it on a low level
3DS - baseline >221k - bracket between 200k and 250k - surprisingly modest increase considering NSMB2
NDS - baseline >125k - bracket between 100k and 150k - it just wont stop
creamsugar
Member
Angry bird:
PS3+360 < 3DS < 23k
total < 38k
PS3+360 < 3DS < 23k
total < 38k
Huh. I wonder how Rovio is doing these days.
sonic generations = kh3d + 25k
specialguy
Banned
So if I get the average sales up right for Vita,PS3,DS and 3DS it should be:
3DS > 212K
PSV > 44K
NDS > 75K
PS3 > 175K
EDIT:
Hammer did a better job than me
Where is BrunoMB getting his much tighter hardware ranges?
specialguy
Banned
About 360 vs Wii subplot.
360 gained about another 200k this month.
Gap was 4.9, so now 4.7. (rough figures)
Oct should be another ~200k month putting it at 4.5.
Then you have two big months of Nov/Dec.
Gap should be no more than 2.5m after that, if not considerably less.
But Xbox Durango probably looms in late 13.
360 should be able to gain at least 200k/month through the first ten months of 2013 before Durango hits. Especially if MS ever does a price drop.
So the Wii overtaking could occur in very late 2013, depending.
One problem is our numbers get worse and worse, and I'm guessing Wii numbers will get even harder to come by after Wii U launch. Unless Microsoft makes a public statement, it may be difficult to pinpoint the crossover.
360 gained about another 200k this month.
Gap was 4.9, so now 4.7. (rough figures)
Oct should be another ~200k month putting it at 4.5.
Then you have two big months of Nov/Dec.
Gap should be no more than 2.5m after that, if not considerably less.
But Xbox Durango probably looms in late 13.
360 should be able to gain at least 200k/month through the first ten months of 2013 before Durango hits. Especially if MS ever does a price drop.
So the Wii overtaking could occur in very late 2013, depending.
One problem is our numbers get worse and worse, and I'm guessing Wii numbers will get even harder to come by after Wii U launch. Unless Microsoft makes a public statement, it may be difficult to pinpoint the crossover.
Isn't SSF4 3D the (3rd party) game with the biggest LTD in US?
grimshawish
Banned
This really depends on the WiiU effect though on 360 sales.
yes, but it's been on the market for 18 months. kh3d did more than 2/3 ssf4 3d's sales in a month.
It had just 5 days counted.
specialguy
Banned
Yeah, but likewise the Wii could basically go to zero as well after Wii U. Some depends on what Nintendo wants to do, but Wii sales are pretty terrible without any Wii U on the market, so I doubt they'll support it much.
If the 360 does the same 1.7 in each of Dec/Nov as last year and Wii is 0, 360 could gain up to 3.4 in two months. Obviously that's kind of absolute best case.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
I don't think you should extrapolate so much based one "maybe -40%". Those numbers are probably not that far off though.
Frankfurter
Member
I'd argue that's not a best case, but rather an absolutely unrealistic case. X360 this is year is what... ~20% down over last year on average (edit: seems more like 30%+ judging by September, August, July and June)? I really don't see why that should change all that much in the remaining three months. If anything, the WiiU should put more pressure on it. Also why would Wii do 0? Not saying that Wii do great or anything, but it'll still sell a considerable amount of units in Nov/Dec.
I'm also not sure if X360 will be able to sell 200k on average in the first 10 months of 2013.
specialguy
Banned
yeah, i mean my realistic estimate for nov-dec was only +2m. which really should be realistic or conservative.
i'm not sure wii u is going to have much effect on 360 sales either. anyways 200k/month is already a conservative number.
a lot depends as i stated, on if microsoft price drops next year. if they do they could avg well better than +200k/month
each month that goes by reduces a little uncertainty in how it will play out. we'll know a lot more after dec npd's.
I have 373k for PS3 in sep/11. With this:
PS3-~224k
Wii-~57k
Vita-Less than 57k (more than 50k)
Petrae or others can tell if this is close to real numbers.
KillerMan91
Member
Swimming in money that comes from Angry Birds merchandise.
360 has outsold Wii more this year, than in the same timeframe it did last year. Slowing sales have not slowed down the pace in which 360 is overtaking Wii.
360 isn't going to be down considerably in the holidays, though noone will believe me so I guess we'll have to wait till january. MS are not doing a price cut but they're doing bundles which are more or less in line with a price cut, they also proved last holiday they only needed bundles to be up yoy (Nov + Dec combined). With Halo 4 in November especially, don't expect Nov to be any less than 1.5m, Dec might be a bit uglier though.
Wii? It's going to be down a lot, not 0 obviously, but it barely managed 1m over Nov last year. 360 will easily shave 2m off this holiday if not more due to the sheer drop in Wii sales.
Then it's just a case of waiting it out, 360 won't die like wii has, for obvious reason.
It's a case of when not if.
Not to mention, it's virtually a guarantee the 360 will get an official cut sometime next year, likely spring. That'll help stabalize sales on par with this year, whilst Wii will be doing 10k a month. (no joke, it's doing 60k~ now ...)
I would hope MS made a statement, but they didn't about overtaking Wii SW.
frankie_baby
Member
Wii will drop next year yeah of course but don't be ridiculous 10k a month?
frankie_baby
Member
Wouldn't be surprised at all if this is over 500k after Xmas
Why so hard to believe? With a price cut last year it didn't even maintain the previous years numbers. Now it's down over 50% month in month out to lows of 60k. With a successor on the market next year, exactly what kinda of drop are you expecting?
frankie_baby
Member
Its still got room for a price cut to the magic $99 budget console price point and could do so without hurting wii u sales (unlike current ds sales hurting 3ds sales) I'd be expecting 30-40k monthly sales next year
Rhazer Fusion
Member
Anyone celebrating no COD on the list must of forgot that BO2 is coming out next month. That will probably dominate for another 2 years or so.
60k to 40k, that's not in line with the drops it's had, despite price cuts. At this point price is not a barrier for Wii so $99 is gonna do little when retailers arnt bothering to put it on shelves because A) no software and B) WiiU, it's not like the DS which is still selling amazing.
Are Nintendo not expecting 7.3m or something for WiiU this FY? (adjusted down 1m because of manufacturing difficulties) Their initial forecast was 10.5m for Wii + WiiU. So if they are on target they expect a lowly 2.2m - 3.2m for Wii this FY. Goodness knows what it's going to be next year.
DaSorcerer7
Member
That was an analyst's guesstimate, not nintendo.
Fair enough, I did think it looked a bit high for a launch period. I always thought it'd be a 50/50 split.
Also building a vault to store more monies for when Bad Piggies takes off.