Official Feb NPD 2005 Prediction Thread (AKA-How will GT4, RE4, Tekken 5, MVP do?)

S

sonycowboy

Member
NPD should be out this Thursday afternoon, if NPD decides to follow their PROPER SCHEDULE. Of course, last month, they were late by a week. In either case, here's the prediction thread. ;)

To add some spice, I’ve added a points system to this contest. It’s admittedly rudimentary, and I’m open to suggestions on how to modify it. It’s my own little BCS ranking / RPI ranking for NPD predictions :D

Point System:
1) 10 points for getting Hardware positions correct.

2) 20 points * (percentage of correct units for hardware system, anything over 100% difference = 0 points). Maximum points: 100

3) 10 points for each title at correct ordinal position in your overall top 10 (-1 for each position off, minimum of 0 points). Maximum points: 100

4) 10 points * (percentage of correct units for each title, anything over 100% difference = 0 points) in your overall top 10. Maximum points: 100

5) 2 points for each title at correct ordinal position in your overall top 5 per platform (-1 for each position off, minimum of 0 points). Maximum points: 40 (10 for each platform, NDS not eligible)

6) OVERALL TOP 10 Correct – 50 points

7) 20 points * (percentage of correct overall software sales in dollars, anything over 100% difference = 0 points). Maximum points: 20

Here's a chance to dazzle us with your acumen. Lotsa releases. Most notably Gran Turismo 4, NBA Street 3, MVP, Tekken 5. (other new releases listed below)

Required Predictions
You must make the following predictions to qualify for the points contest

1) Hardware (within 10k) each system
2) Top 10 overall w/units (must pick per sku, not combining multi-platform)
3) Top 5 for each system w/units (NDS not eligible)
4) Overall Software Sales for the month in dollars

Jan 2005 Wedbush NPD Results & Previous Prediction Threads

Jan NPD Results:
Software: http://forums.gaming-age.com/showthread.php?t=36114
Hardware: http://forums.gaming-age.com/showthread.php?t=36224

January Prediction thread:
http://forums.gaming-age.com/showthread.php?t=34992

No official December thread:

November Prediction thread:
http://forums.gaming-age.com/showthread.php?t=26909

October Prediction thread:
http://forums.gaming-age.com/showthread.php?t=22688

September Prediction thread:
http://forums.gaming-age.com/showthread.php?t=18718

August Prediction thread:
http://forums.gaming-age.com/showthread.php?t=13948

July prediction thread:
http://forums.gaming-age.com/showthread.php?t=10085

Some considerations
1) Hardware shortages getting better?? or not (PS2, Xbox, & DS)
2) Gran Turismo 4, NBA Street 3, Tekken 5, Baseball games?
3) Did Oddworld: Stranger’s Wrath rebound?
4) RE4 – What kind of legs does it have?
5) GTA:SA vs Halo 2 vs NFSU 2 (part 4)

Some notable New Releases:
Last two weeks of January:
Week 3: The Punisher, Fullmetal Alchemist, Zoo Keeper
Week 4: Playboy: The Mansion, Oddworld Stranger's Wrath

January Releases
Week 1: Winning Eleven 8,
Week 2: NBA Street 3, Shadow of Rome, Champion of Norrath: Return to Arrms, Death By Degrees, King of Fighters 02/03, Shaman King: Soaring Hawk (GBA), Shaman King: Sprinting Wolf (GBA), Winnie the Pooh
Week 3: Xenosaga 2, Yu-Gi-Oh 7 Trials (GBA), Tenchu, Nanobreaker, Star Fox: Assault, WarioWare: Touched (DS), Constantine,
Week 4: Gran Turismo 4, Tekken 5, MVP 2005, MLB 2k5 (Xbox only), Kessen 3, Street Fighter Anniversary (Xbox), Klonoa 2 (GBA), FIFA Street, Y’s, Project Snowblind, Scrapland, Judge Dredd, Robots

Some NPD data to help you out:

Hardware Sales by month LTD
Code: 
Month /  PerioPlaystation 2 Xbox       Gamecube     GB Advance    Nintedo DS   Comment
        Oct-00       391,245          0            0             0             PS2 Launch
        Nov-00       187,554          0            0             0
        Dec-00       522,239          0            0             0
        Jan-01       248,052          0            0             0
        Feb-01       233,223          0            0             0
        Mar-01       546,572          0            0             0
        Apr-01       326,014          0            0             0
        May-01       281,881          0            0             0
        Jun-01       343,631          0            0       870,179             GBA Launch
        Jul-01       351,935          0            0       360,904
        Aug-01       321,774          0            0       331,134
        Sep-01       341,300          0            0       324,329
        Oct-01       329,041          0            0       283,120
        Nov-01       908,921    711,619      647,466       923,664             Xbox / Gamecube Launch
        Dec-01     1,947,234    690,817      558,200     1,708,176
        Jan-02       357,971    127,034       58,712       170,550
        Feb-02       414,500    138,527       76,815       408,431
        Mar-02       359,163    135,402      110,251       498,948
        Apr-02       195,707     77,457       81,195       304,917
        May-02       463,709    228,914      111,063       314,146             PS2 & Xbox Price Drop (299 -> 199)
        Jun-02       690,021    263,338      206,900       546,708             Gamecube Price Drop (199->149)
        Jul-02       435,536    154,204      137,790       324,166
        Aug-02       452,412    136,669      127,301       262,736
        Sep-02       531,751    171,737      165,497       272,047
        Oct-02       516,622    238,200      167,746       304,449             Xbox Sega Bundle
        Nov-02     1,283,811    466,962      424,256     1,198,489
        Dec-02     2,686,288  1,031,140      590,477     2,137,943
        Jan-03       451,067    163,313       80,757       260,161
        Feb-03       487,298    196,172      166,042       279,164             Gamecube Free Game Giveaway (Started Feb 9)
        Mar-03       399,037    163,522      163,090       696,982             GBA SP launched
        Apr-03       260,997    125,147       99,775       418,149             Free Zelda GC Bundle
        May-03       283,417    122,897       83,318       379,446             PS2, Xbox Price Drop 199 -> 179
        Jun-03       437,210    165,861      123,196       648,033
        Jul-03       310,089    136,199      126,094       481,478
        Aug-03       290,793    144,205       99,907       367,391
        Sep-03       322,053    169,865      163,666       408,725
        Oct-03       292,685    175,082      252,901       399,800             Gamecube Price Drop  $149 -> $99
        Nov-03       836,679    461,881      751,291     1,186,667
        Dec-03     1,937,458  1,079,426    1,158,229     2,255,267
        Jan-04       330,386    190,343      130,408       293,971             Gamecube shortages
        Feb-04       353,405    200,073      136,591       351,573
        Mar-04       294,437    198,445      163,028       496,416             Xbox price drop $179-$149
        Apr-04       188,669    297,350       96,050       292,441
        May-04       253,454    216,997       77,827       268,684             PS2 Price Drop (core $179->$149, bundle $199->$149)
        Jun-04       427,156    261,651      108,747       520,905
        Jul-04       304,569    201,973       92,938       394,088             PS2 Shortages Reported
        Aug-04       211,690    216,911      108,953       312,568
        Sep-04       253,295    265,067      114,789       524,767
        Oct-04       380,540    215,845      108,832       443,276             PSTwo launched, Xbox Shortages Reported
        Nov-04       695,876    708,097      350,155     1,117,175   479,695   Nintendo DS Launched
        Dec-04       990,219  1,037,958      796,734     2,060,443   745,899
        Jan-05       490,002    242,375      112,327       292,917   152,091
Totals            27,150,588 11,928,675    9,129,314    26,695,523 1,377,685
LTD Refurbishe           965    567,528      127,455            72             Refurbished Totals included in Monthly Sales

Yearly Totals
          2000     1,101,038          0            0             0         0
          2001     6,179,578  1,402,436    1,205,666     4,801,506         0
          2002     8,387,491  3,169,584    2,258,003     6,743,530         0
          2003     6,308,783  3,103,570    3,268,266     7,781,263         0
          2004     4,683,696  4,010,710    2,285,052     7,076,307 1,225,594
          2005       490,002    242,375      112,327       292,917   152,091

Top 40 Sales – Jan 2005
Code: 
Format   Title                         Jan 2005 Units      Jan 2005 $
GCN      RESIDENT EVIL 4                      319,197     $16,392,040
PS2      GRAND THEFT: ANDREAS                 241,105     $11,102,990
GBA      ZELDA: THE MINISH CAP                216,969      $6,423,125
XBX      MERCENARIES                          201,139      $9,883,701
PS2      MERCENARIES                          182,621      $8,963,925
PS2      NEED SPEED:UNDRGRND 2                142,465      $6,944,176
PS2      MADDEN NFL 2005                      125,264      $3,612,687
XBX      HALO 2                               124,027      $5,607,576
GBA      KINGDOM HEARTS: CHAIN                110,297      $3,754,890
NDS      SUPER MARIO 64 DS                    109,087      $3,313,954
PS2      NFL STREET 2                         108,684      $5,406,236
PS2      NBA LIVE 2005                         96,686      $2,802,524
XBX      NEED SPEED:UNDRGRND 2                 86,064      $4,190,432
PS2      CALL OF DUTY: FINEST                  76,893      $3,377,627
PS2      METAL GEAR3:SNAKE EAT                 65,993      $3,080,831
PS2      WORLD CHAMP POKER                     65,352      $1,298,446
GCN      MARIO PARTY 6 W/MIC                   63,128      $3,100,818
PS2      THE PUNISHER                          62,421      $3,087,040
XBX      THE PUNISHER                          61,833      $3,054,866
PS2      SUIKODEN IV                           60,738      $2,412,067
PS2      ESPN NBA 2K5                          59,892      $1,110,317
XBX      SW:KNIGHT REPUBLIC II                 59,580      $2,956,659
XBX      MECH ASSAULT 2: LONE                  58,987      $2,942,610
XBX      NFL STREET 2                          58,682      $2,920,710
XBX      T.CLANCY GHOST RECON2                 57,308      $2,714,188
PS2      DRAGONBALL Z:BUDOKAI3                 57,121      $2,536,617
PS2      NEED SPEED: UNDERGRND                 55,240      $1,051,684
PS2      ESPN NFL 2K5                          53,582      $1,049,568
XBX      MADDEN NFL 2005                       51,918      $1,529,882
GBA      THE INCREDIBLES                       50,027      $1,467,566
XBX      CALL OF DUTY: FINEST                  46,857      $2,017,089
GBA      FINAL FANTASY I & II                  45,881      $1,420,048
PS2      GETAWAY: BLACK MONDAY                 45,477      $2,224,230
PS2      RATCHET & CLANK: UP                   44,556      $1,771,579
GBA      THE SPONGEBOB MOVIE                   43,889      $1,285,510
PS2      SOCOM II: NAVY SEALS                  42,622        $832,126
PS2      WWE SMACKDOWN VS RAW                  42,546      $2,115,222
GBA      POKEMON FIRERED W/ADP                 42,435      $1,478,530
PS2      SONIC MEGA COLL PLUS                  42,338        $837,539
PS2      JAK 3                                 41,806      $1,660,995

Software Sales
Top 40 Sales Feb 2004 (Jan 2004 -> Feb 2004 sales shown)
Code: 
Format  Title                         Publisher                        Rel Date     Feb-04   Jan-04
GCN     FINAL FANTASY CRYSTAL         NINTENDO OF AMERICA              4-Feb       243,380
PS2     NFL STREET                    ELECTRONIC ARTS                  4-Jan       167,935  331,266
GBA     METROID ZERO MISSION          NINTENDO OF AMERICA              4-Feb       151,807
PS2     NEED SPEED: UNDERGRND         ELECTRONIC ARTS                  3-Nov       120,155  177,917
PS2     BOND 007: EVERYTHING          ELECTRONIC ARTS                  4-Feb       115,944
PS2     JET LI: RISE TO HONOR         SONY COMPUTER ENT. (SONY)        4-Feb       104,084
PS2     CHAMPS NORRATH:REALMS         SONY ONLINE ENT.                 4-Feb       101,684
XBX     HALO                          MICROSOFT                        1-Nov        88,979  104,123
PS2     MAFIA                         TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE               4-Jan        88,473   39,675
XBX     BOND 007: EVERYTHING          ELECTRONIC ARTS                  4-Feb        88,038
PS2     SONIC HEROES                  SEGA OF AMERICA                  4-Jan        84,098   32,091
GCN     MARIO KART: DOUBLE            NINTENDO OF AMERICA              3-Nov        81,233  106,424
GCN     SONIC HEROES                  SEGA OF AMERICA                  4-Jan        76,506  199,032
GBA     MARIO BROS 3: MARIO 4         NINTENDO OF AMERICA              3-Oct        71,991   63,906
PS2     MADDEN NFL 2004               ELECTRONIC ARTS                  3-Aug        69,684   99,798
PS2     MX UNLEASHED                  THQ                              4-Feb        65,683
PS2     TRUE CRIME:STREETS LA         ACTIVISION                       3-Nov        65,472  100,295
PS2     BALDURS GATE:ALLNC II         INTERPLAY                        4-Jan        65,234   90,746
XBX     NFL STREET                    ELECTRONIC ARTS                  4-Jan        61,618  140,916
GBA     YU-GI-OH! TRNMNT 2004         KONAMI DIGITAL ENT.              4-Feb        61,061
XBX     GRAND THEFT AUTO PACK         ROCKSTAR GAMES (TAKE 2)          3-Oct        60,143  106,819
PS2     SOCOM II: NAVY SEALS          SONY COMPUTER ENT. (SONY)        3-Nov        60,121   82,056
PS2     NBA LIVE 2004                 ELECTRONIC ARTS                  3-Oct        57,497   59,048
GBA     POKEMON RUBY                  NINTENDO OF AMERICA              3-Mar        54,016   43,324
GBA     POKEMON SAPPHIRE              NINTENDO OF AMERICA              3-Mar        50,472   41,874
PS2     DRAGONBALL Z:BUDOKAI2         ATARI                            3-Dec        47,841   69,654
PS2     GRAND THEFT AUTO:VICE         ROCKSTAR GAMES (TAKE 2)          2-Oct        46,986   52,260
PS2     GRAND THEFT AUTO PACK         ROCKSTAR GAMES (TAKE 2)          3-Oct        45,420   50,073
PS2     TIGER WOODS PGA 2004          ELECTRONIC ARTS                  3-Sep        44,203   53,292
XBX     UNREAL II: AWAKENING          ATARI                            4-Feb        43,790
XBX     NEED SPEED: UNDERGRND         ELECTRONIC ARTS                  3-Nov        43,089   63,097
PS2     TONY HAWK UNDERGROUND         ACTIVISION                       3-Oct        43,047   45,042
GCN     BOND 007: EVERYTHING          ELECTRONIC ARTS                  4-Feb        42,264
PS2     SOCOM W/O HEADSET             SONY COMPUTER ENT. (SONY)        3-Apr        41,314   56,211
GBA     TEENAGE MUTANT TURTLE         KONAMI OF AMERICA                3-Oct        40,489   32,243
GCN     SUPER SMASH BRO MELEE         NINTENDO OF AMERICA              1-Dec        40,174   40,035
PS2     NAMCO MUSEUM                  NAMCO                            1-Dec        39,761   37,071
PS2     RATCHET & CLANK               SONY COMPUTER ENT. (SONY)        2-Nov        38,726   41,060
GBA     SONIC BATTLE                  THQ                              4-Jan        38,275   56,177
XBX     T. CLANCYS RAINBOW 3          UBISOFT                          4-Oct        38,004   58,213

Good luck!
 
GC historically has performed better in Feb than Jan.
So i expect higher sales for the GC hardware.

Starfox around 250K
Resident Evil around 150K
Minish Cap 100K
GBA:SP 200K
GT4 650K
Tekken 5 175K
PS2 210K
XBox 150K
GC 175K
PS2 MERCENARIES 100k
XBX MERCENARIES 55k
PS2 NEED SPEED:UNDRGRND 2 60k
PS2 MADDEN NFL 2005 60k
XBX HALO 2 75k
GBA KINGDOM HEARTS: CHAIN 90k
NDS SUPER MARIO 64 DS 100k
DS around 150K, Still no new releases.
 
ThongyDonk said:
GC historically has performed better in Feb than Jan.
So i expect higher sales for the GC hardware.

Starfox around 250K
Resident Evil around 150K

DS around 150K, Still no new releases.
Click to expand...

That's not going to "win" you anything :D Of course, I'd be surprised if anyone actually does all of the "required" numbers. If not, I'll win by default :lol Just a little fun and a way to actually say who'se the most right with this thing. I expect some NCS (NPD Championship series) controversy here. ;)
 
Software:

Star Fox 75k
RE4 90k
Mercenaries 100k PS2, 80k Xbox
GTA:SA 150k
Tekken 5 200k
Halo 2 60k
GT4 280k

Hardware:

PS2 300k
Xbox 220k
GC 140k
 
sonycowboy said:
To add some spice, I’ve added a points system to this contest. It’s admittedly rudimentary, and I’m open to suggestions on how to modify it. It’s my own little BCS ranking / RPI ranking for NPD predictions :D
Click to expand...

Invite Michael Pachter to play this game.
 
Culex said:
Software:

Star Fox 75k
RE4 90k
Mercenaries 100k PS2, 80k Xbox
GTA:SA 150k
Tekken 5 200k
Halo 2 60k

Hardware:

PS2 300k
Xbox 220k
GC 140k
Click to expand...

Again. Not a qualifying entry :D

Also, no edits will be allowed after: 1 hour prior to the release of the NPD (whenever that happens)
 
sonycowboy said:
Again. Not a qualifying entry :D

Also, no edits will be allowed after: 1 hour prior to the release of the NPD (whenever that happens)
Click to expand...

Blah, too much work for all that :)

I leave that hard stuff for you!
 
Culex said:
Blah, too much work for all that :)

I leave that hard stuff for you!
Click to expand...

There's plenty of time and you can just take someone else's entry later and "make it your own". Of course, I always wait till the last day to post my predictions.
 
Hardware Only

PS2 310K
XBOX 270K
DS 130K
GCN 100K


Things to lookout for.

Was PS2 bump in January simply because of shortage around holidays?
Is XBOX shortage still ongoing?
Does the lack of software hurt DS sales as well as start of PSP hype?
Did GCN get a bump in January with RE4 and now falls back possibly below 100K again?
 
KeithFranklin said:
Things to lookout for.

Was PS2 bump in January simply because of shortage around holidays?
Is XBOX shortage still ongoing?
Does the lack of software hurt DS sales as well as start of PSP hype?
Did GCN get a bump in January with RE4 and now falls back possibly below 100K again?
Click to expand...

1) Or, did the continuing shortage in January keep PS2 numbers down? ;) Also, February saw some PS2 shipments in the early part of the month, but the last two weeks they were mostly gone, (by some reports)
2) A definite yes, slightly better (again, by some reports)
3) I'd say yes. I would guess significantly lower than 150k
4) Only two sizable GC releases, Star Fox and NBA Street w/ Mario All-Stars. I'd say we'll see a drop and it could easily be below 100k.
 
sonycowboy said:
3) I'd say yes. I would guess significantly lower than 150k
Click to expand...
Man, you really should be even more handed with the shortage excuses. :P

DS was still in launch/shortage mode until mid/late January by most accounts. The shortage is clearly over now, but Feb should be the first full month to reflect that... there's a even chance sales will beat January, especially with Wario Ware's release (while Jan only had Zoo Keeper). Personally, I think sales will remain pretty much flat until March (where we'll see a s slight bump thanks to some new releases finally).


And what's with people predicting lowered GBA sales? GBA sales have always increased in February, it'll break 300k again easily, Jan sales were actually up from last year too.

My rough hardware guesses (I'll do software later)...

PS2: 375k
GBA: 300k
XBX: 225k
NDS: 150k
GCN: 100k
NGE: 7
 
1) Hardware:

PS2 340k
GBA 300k
Xbox 220k
GC 110k
NDS 175k

2) Software:

1. GT4 430k
2. NBA Street 3 PS2 217k
3. Tekken 5 166k
4. GTA San Andreas 145k
5. Xenosaga II 125k
6. Halo 2 110k
7. Mercenaries PS2 102k
8. MVP Baseball 2005 PS2 100k
9. Resident Evil 4 95k
10. Super Mario 64 DS 90k


3) PS2:

1. GT4 430k
2. NBA Street 3 217k
3. Tekken 5 166k
4. Xenosaga II 125k
5. Mercenaries 102k

Xbox:

1. Halo 2 110k
2. NBA Street 3 85k
3. Mercenaries 75k
4. MVP Baseball 2005 65k
5. NFS Underground 2 50k


GC:

1. RE4 95k
2. Starfox Assault 85k
3. NBA Street 3 75k
4. Mario Power Tennis 25k
5. Paper Mario 2 23k

GBA & NDS:

1. Zelda TMC 105k
2. Super Mario 64 NDS 90k
3. Kingdom Hearts: Chain 70k
4. Pokemon FireRed 35k
5. The Incredibles 30k

4) 420 Mio $
 
DarkMehm said:
1) Hardware:

PS2 310k
GBA 300k
Xbox 210k
GC 110k

2) Software:

1. GT4 420k
2. Tekken 5 230k
3. NBA Street 3 PS2 160k
4. GTA San Andreas 145k
5. Xenosaga II 120k
6. Halo 2 110k
7. Mercenaries PS2 100k
8. Resident Evil 4 95k
9. Super Mario 64 DS 90k
10. NBA Street 3 Xbox 85k

3) PS2:

1. GT4 420k
2. Tekken 5 230k
3. NBA Street 160k
4. Xenosaga II 120k
5. Mercenaries 100k

Xbox:

1. Halo 2 110k
2. NBA Street 3 85k
3. Mercenaries 75k
4. NFS Underground 2 50k
5. NFL Street 2 35k

GC:

1. RE4 95k
2. Starfox Assault 85k
3. Mario Party 6 35k
4. Mario Power Tennis 25k
5. Paper Mario 2 23k

GBA & NDS:

1. Zelda TMC 105k
2. Super Mario 64 NDS 90k
3. Kingdom Hearts: Chain 70k
4. Pokemon FireRed 35k
5. The Incredibles 30k

4) 480 Mio $
Click to expand...


bravo.jpg
 
Hardware
PS2: 350k
Xbox: 300k
GCN: 125k
NDS: (I'll add it in anyway, but to my knowledge, it's been tough to get the number) 175k

Top 10
1. MVP Baseball 2005 PS2: 300k
2. MVP Baseball 2005 XBX: 275K
3. Resident Evil 4 GCN: 295k
4. NBA Street 3 PS2: 250K
5. Champions of Norrath 2 PS2: 235K
6. Grand Theft Auto: SA PS2: 225K
7. Halo 2 XBX: 220K
8. NBA Street 3 XBX: 200K
9. Starfox 2 GCN: 195K
10. Wario Ware: Touched! NDS: 175K

Top 5 GCN
1. Resident Evil 4: 295K
2. Starfox 2: 195K
3. NBA Street 3: 100K
4. MVP Baseball 2005: 75K
5. Paper Mario 2: 50K

Top 5 PS2
1. MVP Baseball 2005: 300K
2. NBA Street 3: 250K
3. Champions of Norrath 2 PS2: 235K
4. GTA: SA: 225K
5. MGS3: 150K

Top 5 XBX
1. MVP Baseball 2005: 275K
2. Halo 2: 220K
3. NBA Steet 3: 200K
4. Mercenaries: 165K
5. The Punisher: 99k

Overall software sales for the month: $654 Million+

P.S- Resident Evil 4 won't slow down. It should be the number 1 3rd party game for the 'Cube when it's all said and done; though that really isn't saying much.
Starfox will end up doing okay.
I think Tekken 5 will put up respectable numbers. It'll hit 1 million by the end of the year.
I don't see Halo 2 nor GTA: SA slowing down all that much, really.
The NDS, even though it has 1 month left all on it's own when the mighty PSP comes out, I believe when it's all said and done, it'll surprise everyone.
 
jarrod said:
Man, you really should be even more handed with the shortage excuses. :P
Click to expand...

Yeah, I know.

But, in my defense, I made posts throughout much of January where I had heard from multiple sources that the DS was plentiful most of January, so I considered that number to not be particularly constrained. With WarioWare and depending on how shortages might have affected the DS's hardware numbers, I wouldn't be surprised if the DS number increases, but I'm currently leaning towards a decrease in sales based on availability issues and the fact that the channel checks I've done, showed that the DS has come to something of a significant drop in sales from the hardware side. I've had multiple stores tell me that they're only selling a few units per week, if that. Not scientific, to be sure, but it's a little something for me to go on.
 
JavyOO7 said:
Hardware
PS2: 350k
Xbox: 300k
GCN: 125k
NDS: (I'll add it in anyway, but to my knowledge, it's been tough to get the number) 175k

Top 10
1. MVP Baseball 2005 PS2: 300k
2. MVP Baseball 2005 XBX: 275K
3. Resident Evil 4 GCN: 295k
4. NBA Street 3 PS2: 250K
5. Champions of Norrath 2 PS2: 235K
6. Grand Theft Auto: SA PS2: 225K
7. Halo 2 XBX: 220K
8. NBA Street 3 XBX: 200K
9. Starfox 2 GCN: 195K
10. Wario Ware: Touched! NDS: 175K

Top 5 GCN
1. Resident Evil 4: 295K
2. Starfox 2: 195K
3. NBA Street 3: 100K
4. MVP Baseball 2005: 75K
5. Paper Mario 2: 50K

Top 5 PS2
1. MVP Baseball 2005: 300K
2. NBA Street 3: 250K
3. Champions of Norrath 2 PS2: 235K
4. GTA: SA: 225K
5. MGS3: 150K

Top 5 XBX
1. MVP Baseball 2005: 275K
2. Halo 2: 220K
3. NBA Steet 3: 200K
4. Mercenaries: 165K
5. The Punisher: 99k

Overall software sales for the month: $654 Million+

P.S- Resident Evil 4 won't slow down. It should be the number 1 3rd party game for the 'Cube when it's all said and done; though that really isn't saying much.
Starfox will end up doing okay.
I think Tekken 5 will put up respectable numbers. It'll hit 1 million by the end of the year.
I don't see Halo 2 nor GTA: SA slowing down all that much, really.
The NDS, even though it has 1 month left all on it's own when the mighty PSP comes out, I believe when it's all said and done, it'll surprise everyone.
Click to expand...


MVP Baseball 2005 number 1, and MGS3 in the top 5 on your PS2 list and no GT4 or Tekken 5..that's just crazy.
 
sonycowboy said:
Yeah, I know.

But, in my defense, I made posts throughout much of January where I had heard from multiple sources that the DS was plentiful most of January, so I considered that number to not be particularly constrained. With WarioWare and depending on how shortages might have affected the DS's hardware numbers, I wouldn't be surprised if the DS number increases, but I'm currently leaning towards a decrease in sales based on availability issues and the fact that the channel checks I've done, showed that the DS has come to something of a significant drop in sales from the hardware side. I've had multiple stores tell me that they're only selling a few units per week, if that. Not scientific, to be sure, but it's a little something for me to go on.
Click to expand...
Makes sense, a drop wouldn't surprise me much given the release schedule. But lowered weekly sales might not amount to a significant monthly decrease over January depending on how supply restricted DS was the first half of the month. Maybe DS sold the vast majority of units in the 2nd 2 weeks that month, while it's been more consistant (but lower) for all of February.. that could lead to relatively even sales month to month, despite the sudden weekly decrease.

And a little off topic, but I've seen you repeatedly refer to "sources" in threads concerning PS2, Xbox and DS sales (usually downplaying the latter 2 btw, no offense). Care to, er... source them? All I've seen is usually anecdotal evidence on the board, which tends to gel with what I see at stores myself (limited but often available PS2, limited and always available DS, almost no Xbox ever in stock) or an offhand analyst report (which tends to stress Xbox shortages mainly).
 
kpop100 said:
MVP Baseball 2005 number 1, and MGS3 in the top 5 on your PS2 list and no GT4 or Tekken 5..that's just crazy.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I knew I forgot some games.

I did mention though Tekken will do nicely. But yeah, completely forgot about GT4. But it's my list, a spur-of-the-moment list, so I'll stick to it. ;)
 
jarrod said:
And a little off topic, but I've seen you repeatedly refer to "sources" in threads concerning PS2, Xbox and DS sales (usually downplaying the latter 2 btw, no offense). Care to, er... source them? All I've seen is usually anecdotal evidence on the board, which tends to gel with what I see at stores myself (limited but often available PS2, limited and always available DS, almost no Xbox ever in stock) or an offhand analyst report (which tends to stress Xbox shortages mainly).
Click to expand...

Well, there are a very small group of people that do channel checks across the country for the specific purpose of trying to gauge sales. We were really into it a year or two ago relative to stock investments in the VG companies. We've cut it down quite a bit, but we still do some very small number of "channel checks" on a pretty regular basis. Not getting numbers by store,etc like we did before, but still enough to try and get sample ship-in numbers for the top 2 or 3 releases and hardware availability. It's fraught with errors, but it's just something we do to try and get some idea of what's going on.

We were in heaven when "Nintendo ate my children" posted numbers for TRU and "Eric" did numbers for Best Buy. But those days are longgg gone :(
 
1) Hardware

PS2 375k (still a shortage going on)
GBA 250k
Xbox 175k
NDS 90k
GC 75k

2) Software

1. GT4 700k
2. NBA Street 3 PS2 350k
3. Starfox 200K
4. MVP Baseball 2005 PS2 200k
5. Wario Ware: Touched! 175K
6. Tekken 5 150k
7. GTA San Andreas 150k
8. NBA Street 3 Xbox 125k
9. MLB 2K5 100k
10. MVP Baseball 2005 XBX 100K

3)

PS2
1. GT4 700k
2. NBA Street 3 PS2 350k
3. MVP Baseball 2005 PS2 200k
4. Tekken 5 150k
5. GTA San Andreas 150k

Xbox
1. NBA Street 3 Xbox 125k
2. MLB 2K5 100k
3. MVP Baseball 2005 XBX 100K
4. Halo 2 100k
5. Mercenaries 85k

GC
1. Starfox 200K
2. RE4 75K
3. NBA Street 3 75K
4. MVP Baseball 2005 40K
5. SSBM 25K

4) revenue, 5% more over last year
 
PS2 - 330K
Xbox - 250K
Gamecube - 150K

Tekken 5 - 80K
Gran Turismo 4 - 200K
GTA SA - 180K
RE4 - 125K
Halo 2 - 100K
MGS3 - 60K


Tekken 5 didn't come out until the 25th, and February ends on the 28th unless this period counts sales a few days into March... but it should have 250K or so by the end of March. I think the first full month sales of Tekken 4 were 250K.

This doesn't qualify for any contest but I don't really care.
 
PlayStation 2 - 370,000
Xbox - 185,000
Nintendo DS - 145,000
Game Cube - 120,000
Game Boy Advance SP - 110,000

Gran Turismo 4 - 460,000
MVP Baseball 2005 (total) - 425,000
Tekken 5 - 195,000
Resident Evil 4 - 115,000
Wario Ware Touched - 100,000
Star Fox Assault - 95,000
 
Hardware:
PS2-350k
xBOX-210k
GC-105k
GBA-250K
DS-150k

Software:
1.NBA Street Vol.3(PS2)-350K
2.Gran Turismo 4(PS2)-300K
3.Star FoX Assault(GC)-250K
4. Tekken 5(PS2)-200K
5. NBA Street Vol.3(Xbox)-175K
6. Resident Evil 4(GC)-150K
7. Wario Ware Touched(NDS)-125K
8. Grand Theft Auto:San Andreas(PS2)-110K
9. Xenosaga 2(PS2)-100K
10. Halo 2(Xbox)-90K

PS2:
1.NBA Street Vol.3(PS2)-350K
2.Gran Turismo 4(PS2)-300K
3. Tekken 5(PS2)-200K
4. Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas(PS2)-110K
5. Xenosaga 2(PS2)-100K

Xbox:
1.NBA Street Vol.3-175K
2. Halo 2-90K
3. Mercenaries-85K
4. Need For Speed Underground 2-80K
5. Oddworld: Stranger's Wrath-60K

GC:
1. Star Fox Assault-250K
2. Resident Evil 4-150K
3. Mario Party 6-50K
4. NBA Street Vol.3-40K
5. Super Smash Bros. Melee-25K
 
Bump for NPD being out tomorrow afternoon. :D

Helpful Hint (maybe, maybe not): From what I've heard (and what I saw that Tue/Wed) Most stores didn't get Tekken 5 until Thursday or Friday, which gives it only 2 or 3 days of sales, and from what I've heard preorders weren't that big (thus, why most stores didn't same day the shipment)
 
Thx again SC... Xbox numbers should be steady. AFAIK, Flextronics has a set schedule with no deviations. Xbox sales should be the same this month as last month and will be the same for months to come.

PS2 - 335K
XB - 245K
GC - 99K
NDS - 99K
GBA - 280K
 
The extreme overestimates on Starfox here are laughably silly! If it even remotely comes close to 100k (say 94k+) I'll deny myself those yummy yummy hardboiled easter eggs.
 
Hardware:

PS2 510k
GBA 280k
Xbox 240k
NDS 110k
GCN 105k

Assumptions: February normally jumps a bit in sales vs January. PS2 was much more available (History shows healthy PS2 sales, but I might be wayy high on this one), XBox was still damn near impossible to find, NDS was readily available, possible that GBA might lose sales to the DS.

Software:

Top 10 Overall:
------------------------
1) GT4 380k (PS2)
2) NBA Street 3 220k (PS2)
3) GTA: SA 200k (PS2)
4) MVP 2005 190k (PS2)
5) NBA Street 3 150k (XBX)
6) Resident Evil 4 140k (GCN)
7) Zelda: Minish 130k (GBA)
8) MVP 2005 120k (XBX)
9) Mercenaries 120k (PS2)
10) Madden 2005 110k (PS2)



Top 5 PS2:
-------------------------
1) GT4 380k
2) NBA Street 3 220k
3) GTA:SA 200k
4) MVP 2005 190k
5) Mercenaries 120k

Top 5 Xbox:
-------------------------
1) NBA Street 3 150k
2) MVP 2005 120k
3) Halo 2 100k
4) Mercenaries 90k
5) ESPN MLB 2k5 80k

Top 5 Gamecube:
-------------------------
1) Resident Evil 4 140k
2) Star Fox: Assault 90k
3) NBA Street 3 60k
4) Mario Party 6 50k
5) MVP Baseball 2005 35k


Top 5 GBA:
--------------------------
1) Zelda: Minish Cap 130k
2) Yu-Gi-Oh 110k
3) Kingdom Hearts: 80k
4) Shaman King: Sprinting Wolf 45k
5) Incredibles 40k

Overall Feb 2005 Hardware Sales
$375M up 8% vs Feb 2004.

Assumptions:

1) GT4, Tekken V, ESPN MLB 2k5, & MVP all could have had higher numbers, but were released in the last week of the month, thus giving them a max of 5 days sales.

2) I suck at guessing GBA. I just have no idea what's going on in that market
 
Hardware:
PS2 300K
GBA 275K
XBX 225K
NDS 150K
GCN 125K

Software:
1. NBA Street Vol.3 (PS2) - 300K
2. Gran Turismo 4 (PS2) - 300K
3. Star Fox Assault (GCN) - 200K
4. Tekken 5 (PS2) - 200K
5. NBA Street Vol.3 (XBX) - 175K
6. Resident Evil 4 (GCN) - 150K
7. Wario Ware Touched (NDS) - 125K
8. GTA:San Andreas (PS2) - 100K
9. Xenosaga 2 (PS2) - 100K
10. Halo 2 (XBX) - 90K
 
AirBrian said:
Hardware:
PS2 300K
GBA 275K
XBX 225K
NDS 150K
GCN 125K

Software:
1. NBA Street Vol.3 (PS2) - 300K
2. Gran Turismo 4 (PS2) - 300K
3. Star Fox Assault (GCN) - 200K
4. Tekken 5 (PS2) - 200K
5. NBA Street Vol.3 (XBX) - 175K
6. Resident Evil 4 (GCN) - 150K
7. Wario Ware Touched (NDS) - 125K
8. GTA:San Andreas (PS2) - 100K
9. Xenosaga 2 (PS2) - 100K
10. Halo 2 (XBX) - 90K
Click to expand...


Aren't you the EA dude? You don't think MVP on PS2 can crack 90k?

MVP 2004 started w/ over 300k units. Of course, there were only 5 days to buy it.
 
sonycowboy said:
Aren't you the EA dude? You don't think MVP on PS2 can crack 90k?

MVP 2004 started w/ over 300k units. Of course, there were only 5 days to buy it.
Click to expand...
:lol :lol

No, I'm sure DarienA would be considered the "EA dude". :) I'm not sure it'll crack 100K in 5 days with GT4 just being released. I'm probably wrong though.
 
Is this place going to survive an NPD thread? It's already on the ropes from all the GDC news.
 
Mooreberg said:
Is this place going to survive an NPD thread? It's already on the ropes from all the GDC news.
Click to expand...

It's looking bad.

BUMP. Only 30 more minutes till contest end. Get yer entry in now. NPD's coming.

(although, it'll trickle out over the whole night like always)
 
I did pretty OK. The points system needs to be adjusted to allow to give points for unit totals that are in the platform top 5, but not in the overall top 10, but otherwise it seems OK.

W/no hardware yet, my Point Totals: 204.4 out of a possible 310

Code: 
Rank   Overall          Predicted Unit  Actual Units Actual Rank Points for UnitPoints for Rank
     1 GT4                     380,000             6           1            6.1           10
     2 NBA Street (PS2)        220,000             2           2            9.7           10
     3 GTA:SA                  200,000             1           3            7.4           10
     4 MVP 2005 (PS2)          190,000             1           4            5.9           10
     5 NBA Street (XBX)        150,000             1           6            7.2            9
     6 Resident Evil 4         140,000             1           8            6.5            8
     7 Zelda: Minish Cap       130,000             1           5            9.5            8
     8 MVP 2005 (XBX)          120,000                        17            6.4            1
     9 Mercenaries (PS2)       120,000             1           7            8.6            8
    10 Madden 2005 (PS2)       110,000                        10            8.9           10
                                                                           76.3           84
Rank   PS2                Actual Rank Points for Rank
     1 GT4                           1             2
     2 NBA Street (PS2)              2             2
     3 GTA:SA                        3             2
     4 MVP 2005 (PS2)                4             2
     5 Mercenaries (PS2)             5             2
                                                  10
       XBX
     1 NBA Street                    1             2
     2 MVP 2005                      4             0
     3 Halo 2                        3             2
     4 Mercenaries                   2             0
     5 ESPN MLB 2005                 0             0
                                                   4
       GC
     1 Resident Evil                 1             2
     2 Star Fox: Assault             2             2
     3 NBA Street V3                 3             2
     4 Mario Party 6                 5             1
     5 MVP Baseball                 43             0
                                                   7
       GBA
     1 Zelda: Minish                 1             2
     2 Yu-Gi-Oh                      6             0
     3 Kingdom Hearts                2             1
     4 Shaman King                 129             0
     5 Incredibles                   4             1
                                                   4

       Feb Sales           Prediction        Actual      Points
                           375,000,000   393,000,000        19.1

       TOTAL SOFTWARE POINTS (Out of a possible 310)
                  204.4
 
My Points:


Code: 
Top 10:

1. GT4 430k  6.95   10
2. NBA Street 3 PS2 217k  9.76  10
3. Tekken 5 166k  3.9  0
4. GTA San Andreas 145k 9.1  9
5. Xenosaga II 125k  7.36  6
6. Halo 2 110k  8  2
7. Mercenaries PS2 102k  9.7  10
8. MVP Baseball 2005 PS2 100k  7.46  6
9. Resident Evil 4 95k  9.22  9
10. Super Mario 64 DS 90k  9.37  2

                                       80.8   64   Total Top 10: 144.8 Points


PS2:

1. GT4 430k   2
2. NBA Street 3 217k  2
3. Tekken 5 166k
4. Xenosaga II 125k
5. Mercenaries 102k  1

                              5 Points

Xbox:

1. Halo 2 110k
2. NBA Street 3 85k  1
3. Mercenaries 75k  1
4. MVP Baseball 2005 65k  2
5. NFS Underground 2 50k

                            4 Points


GC:

1. RE4 95k   2
2. Starfox Assault 85k   2
3. NBA Street 3 75k  2
4. Mario Power Tennis 25k  1
5. Paper Mario 2 23k

                                  7 Points


GBA & NDS:

1. Zelda TMC 105k   2
2. Super Mario 64 NDS 90k  1
3. Kingdom Hearts: Chain 70k  1
4. Pokemon FireRed 35k  1
5. The Incredibles 30k

                             5 Points


Feb Sales           Prediction        Actual      Points
                         420,000,000   393,000,000   18.7 Points



TOTAL without Hardware:  184.5 Points.

not too bad. ^^
 
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