Official September 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

[360] 393,585
[GBA] 79,925
[NDS] 517,455
[PS2] 239,875
[PS3] 138,763
[PSP] 234,360
[WII] 489,365

Joshua's post pretty much mirrors my own thinking with the exception being I'm not sold on the much better supply of the Wii. My DS is much, much higher and my PSP is much, much lower. Supply issues dogged the PSP last month, and there is a new model, but I can't see double the sales when there is no price drop. Most folks are unaware of the new model vs the old, so I'm giving it a bump mostly based on better supply and a slight amount based on the new bundle (a good bargain) and the new model. For the 360, I think the Halo model sold quite well and that Halo 3 definitely gave the system a boost which overall more than accounted for the decline relative to the declining effects of the price drop.

JoshuaJSlone said:
Did these about a week ago, nothing much has happened to change my thoughts significantly thus far.

Wii: Some have said this is the best supply they've had all year. I'll assume this is so, but not by a huge amount over July's high of ~106K/week. So 108K/week * 5 weeks = 540K.

DS: September is usually a handheld increase, but not as much as the 25% of extra time would suggest. Since this August was down from July, I'll say September is a bounce back up to July numbers. 405K.

GBA: As I said above, September is usually slightly up from August... but GBA's continual downslide works against that. A slight decrease at 69K.

PS3: The effect of a price drop on a third place console drops pretty quickly, and to make matters worse for PS3 this month it's still neither Wii nor plays Halo 3. Down from ~33K/week to 27K/week. 27K * 5 = 135K.

PSP: Definitely there will be a reverse of the downward trend now that the Slim is released... but it doesn't seem to have been nearly as big a deal here as in Japan, without a Crisis Core. *shrug* I'll say double last month's weekly rate, so 151.2K / 4 * 2 * 5 = 378K.

PS2: As newer systems shine, PS2 continues to fall. 47K/week * 5 weeks = 235K.

X360: On the one hand things dip after a price cut... on the other hand Halo 3. I'll say that for the first three weeks sales were down 20% relative to last month, then doubled from that in the last two weeks. So .8x3 + 1.6x2 = 5.6 August weeks worth of sales. 276.7K / 4 * 5.6 = 387K
Click to expand...
 
The only thing I'm going to predict is that if the Xbox 360 outsells the Wii... I will cry myself to sleep.
 
[WII] 450,700
[NDS] 446,800
[360] 397,800
[PSP] 317,200
[PS2] 234,400
[PS3] 134,800
[GBA] 75,400

Edit: Knocked about 60k off of Wii because I ain't convinced about Wii shipments being all too high. I think demand has reduced down from "insanely high" to "very high". So I'm basing my Wii prediction on the shipment trend of fiscal Q1; The drop from April to May is similar to the drop from July to August, so I'll use the May:June ratio for my August:September ratio.
 
sonycowboy said:
[360] 393,585
[GBA] 79,925
[NDS] 517,455
[PS2] 239,875
[PS3] 138,763
[PSP] 234,360
[WII] 489,365
Click to expand...

Your thoughts are pretty similar to mine (posted on page 7), though I have the 360 at about 30k less - I'm not convinced that Halo 3 was enough to dramatically increase HW sales over August. Everything else is close, though. Should be a fun month.
 
Predictions are now closed. If you missed the deadline, too bad, so sad.

Good job to everyone for the most part on following the parser format this month. Keep it up!
 
Cheesemeister said:
Predictions are now closed. If you missed the deadline, too bad, so sad.

Good job to everyone for the most part on following the parser format this month. Keep it up!
Click to expand...

When are results coming in? Today, right?

I would like to set a countdown so to wake up :lol so kind enough to tell me more or less how many hours to go?
 
So we've seen in the past that the GAF aggregates are usually more accurate than most individual guesses. I thought it would be interesting to do something a bit more limited, averaging the guesses of those who have previously done well. One could I'm sure make a very complicated method that would weight by score and yada yada yada, but I decided to keep it simple and just take the average from the top 5 in the various categories... though one of last month's top 5 didn't make a guess this month, so it's 4 of the top 5 in that case. I didn't go back and check for edits once I wrote things down, so it's possible there's some inaccuracy.

Top from August 2007
Wii: 520,000
DS: 430,000
X360: 404,570
PSP: 330,750
PS2: 228,000
PS3: 141,750
GBA: 72,000

Top from the last three months
Wii: 510,860
DS: 433,500
X360: 395,760
PSP: 330,240
PS2: 232,400
PS3: 134,780
GBA: 72,500

Top from 2007
Wii: 482,533
DS: 459,991
X360: 419,677
PSP: 274,312
PS2: 234,775
PS3: 139,933
GBA: 78,685
 
If Canada is any indicate past on previous trends, the vast majority of us failed in relation to the 360.
 
Agent Icebeezy said:
If Canada is any indicate past on previous trends, the vast majority of us failed in relation to the 360.
Click to expand...
Sony and Nintendo fans are not impressed with 360 and Halo numbers in Canada (or so they say publicly). If so, they must have overestimated the US numbers.

Time to check to see if that's the case!
 
Agent Icebeezy said:
If Canada is any indicate past on previous trends, the vast majority of us failed in relation to the 360.
Click to expand...

Cananda numbers show the 360 outselling both wii and ds. That sounds pretty good to me.
 
Agent Icebeezy said:
If Canada is any indicate past on previous trends, the vast majority of us failed in relation to the 360.
Click to expand...
Just to add to this - if the weekly % jump is the same (53.4%), then the 360 did 530.6k.

That would put a damper on my overall performance. :lol
 
GhaleonEB said:
Just to add to this - if the weekly % jump is the same (53.4%), then the 360 did 530.6k.

That would put a damper on my overall performance. :lol
Click to expand...
Halo 3 might have moved more systems in Canada than in US (relatively). i.e. Canada had a higher percentage of Halo 3 fans without a 360.

So I will not be too quick to raise the estimates for 360 in US.
 
Gadfly said:
Halo 3 might have moved more systems in Canada than in US (relatively). i.e. Canada had a higher percentage of Halo 3 fans without a 360.

So I will not be too quick to raise the estimates for 360 in US.
Click to expand...
But there's nothing to base that on - it could just as well moved less in Canada than the US. We don't know. Ohhhh, the suspense! :p

Subarushian said:
Wait, so no NPD today? Confusion total.
Click to expand...
We got Canada!
 
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