Pachter: PS5 to be a half step, release in 2019 with PS4 BC
- Thread starter bitbydeath
- Start date
Fess
Member
16TF GPU in a 2019 console? There is zero chance of that happening. A $800 1080ti isn't even 12TF and launched just months ago. 2 years ain't going to put something even better inside a console for $500. People will be insanely disappointed at the unveil if this is what they're expecting.
That I can see. They have the third-party advantage firmly in their hands due to power, network size and content deals. I expect them to start talking about PS5 sooner than we think to keep people from even considering an Xbox X purchase.
FIREKNIGHT2029
Member
No way.
$399 or bust. Seeing how successful PS4 was at $399, there's no way Sony goes back to $499 price point.
Silent Chief
Member
There is no BC. The PS5 will just be a faster PS4.
It's not BC that will determine how powerful the PS5 will be. It's the year Sony picks to launch it. The longer they wait, the more powerful it will be.
thomasmahler
Moon Studios
I mean, it's changing already. And the 'lack of forward compatibility' has also been bullshit if you consider that there's always been cross-gen games that were launched on current- and next-gen at the same time. Why make it harder for developers and more convoluted for consumers? Just have devs ship one package that works on the specific platform that adjusts according to the system it's run on?
Of course forward compatibility might halt progress to a certain degree since newer games might not be able to run on low-end hardware at some point, but that'll happen organically anyway, similar to how it works on PCs or on the phone market. I for one would be happy if i'd just turn on my box and it has a huge library of games and I'm not forced to upgrade, but can choose when to upgrade instead.
Then again, Ori sadly never released on 360...
I would think a true next gen console should be at minimum greater than 12 teraflops.
If not, how are they gonna market it, almost twice as powerful as Xbox1X, almost 3 times the power of PS4Pro.
It will have to be released at a time where there is a noteworthy jump, I don't believe that will be 2019.
If not, how are they gonna market it, almost twice as powerful as Xbox1X, almost 3 times the power of PS4Pro.
It will have to be released at a time where there is a noteworthy jump, I don't believe that will be 2019.
Pretty much yeah, agreed.
What pachter is really describing, is a PS4 Ultimate, not PS5.
Fess
Member
I think we need graphics settings for that to work without annoyance. I'd hate to be forced to play games at 20fps just because devs has started targeting the latest box. But if I could go down to a lower resolution and maybe less detailed shadows and stuff like that and keep gaming at 30fps on my old box then I'd be up for it.
PS4-Pro transition has got me warmed up to the upgrade idea in general. I used to hate all about it but I'm still on my launch PS4 and I'm fine with that, I still haven't felt in any way forced to upgrade to a Pro.
Xbox One X is another beast, then the upgrade is significant enough for me to actually WANT to upgrade. I just hope the devs don't hold back and can find a way to unleash all that extra power somehow even though the games need to run on XB1 too.
E-Cat
Member
That depends on whether you're looking at it linearly or logarithmically.
Graphics Horse
Member
Anyone think games will ship on UHD disks next gen?
thomasmahler
Moon Studios
Well, keep in mind that there was an 8 year gap between the 360/PS3 gen and the current gen and hardware-wise it was WAAAY harder to ship cross platform back then than it'd be today with stuff like PS4Pro and X1X. I still have some Ori 360 builds on old 360 devkits here, but it just didn't make sense anymore to port the finished game down after we shipped Ori's initial release well over a year after X1 was on the market and 360 sales were already on a steep decline, which is why we opted to make the Definitive Edition and the Win10 Port instead and also started shipping on platforms like Gog.com - Cause we felt that was a more future-proof approach for the Ori fans anyway. I know we angered some fans that desperately wanted a 360 port, but fact of the matter was that it just wouldn't have made economic sense anymore at that point.
I'm pretty happy with hardware upgrades coming out every 3-4 years now instead of locking progress on games for an 8+ year period simply cause consoles aren't evolving as fast as the PC did.
thomasmahler
Moon Studios
I think it should be up to the developers to ensure that whatever box you play it on, you get the best experience out of it. The gamers out there will burn devs who opt for sloppy optimization anyway, so devs will do their damndest to ensure that games run well enough on whatever platform you play it on or they lose gamers trust.
The X1X isn't suddenly going to redeem MS' fortunes outside its core territory. While I've no doubt Sony will be paying attention to MS & the X1X it's only an outlier sales situation that might spur them into precipitous action.
Agree with your specs tho - although I think a 7200rpm HDD might be on the cards.
Of course I understand the decision but I was really looking forward to play the game on 360. Perhaps in the future you can go into detail how far into development the 360 version was, it is definitely something that should belong to unseen64 and the likes.
With Ori you created a wonderful IP and 80 million 360 owners didn't ever get a chance to bath you in money for your game
Filthy Casual
Member
Fuck that shit
Yautja_Warrior
Member
By the time 2019 / 2020 comes along, it won't be a reaction to Xbox One X, it will just be time for PS4 to start winding down, as it will be 6-7 years into it's life cycle and the Pro will have had 3-4 years, plus the Pro was never designed to extend the generation, just take advantage of 4k at the earliest time, with 4k becoming more popular right now.
Yeah a 7200rpm HDD would be nice and better than the 5400rpm drives we have at the moment, a Hybrid drive would be nice too but I doubt they would, unless SSD / Hybrid prices massively drop within the next few years (unlikely) But with Sony allowing us to swap the HDD's with whatever we like, with PS3 and 4, maybe they will just go cheap again to keep the system price as low as poss and just let us replace it with whatever we like again.
MarcusAurelius32
Member
I'd say Sony would be happy with people believing a PS5 hits shelves in 2019 because it may make the people sitting on the fence about purchasing an XBX hold fire if they think a true Next gen console is <12mnts down the line. In reality though 2020 or beyond is way more likely and at least 12tf and back compatibility with PS4 is a must
Fess
Member
Yeah but some devs don't agree with me on what the best experience is :/ I'd love to be able to scale things down to run some 30fps games at 60fps for example, like I do on PC. Many games are ported from PC where the graphics detail menu already exist, I don't understand why the menu have to be removed just because the game gets ported to consoles. Sloppy optimization is far too common so it really annoys me to not have the options there when games aren't running like I want them to.
Can I just ask Fredrik - IIRC you've got a monster PC, so what is the pull of the X1X?
It can't be multiplats because PC will have the best versions, Play Anywhere means you'll get most of the Xbox exclusives anyway. MP stuff like Gears & Halo are I assume x-play across XboxFam & PC...so is it just techno-lust?
I really hope they get the CPU right. Something Ryzen based.
Kaiser Swayze
Member
It seems plausible as Sony and MS both have seemingly lost their appetite for taking huge losses on every unit sold. If you want to wow people with a $400 box, you can't expect to make money on them.
It will of course be something Ryzen-based. Potentially something cheap that offers also an integrated graphics solution. I guess some form of Raven Ridge will be put in there, with customization to the amount of GPU ingredients.
Tbh, nobody should have been wowed because of PS4 and Xbox One.
ultrazilla
Gold Member
lol
Anyways, it's not hard to think the PS5 will be parity or more powerful than the Xbox One X. Sony WILL NOT concede the arms race that quickly.
And yes, backwards compatibility IS A MUST for PS4/PS4 Pro games.
Anyways, it's not hard to think the PS5 will be parity or more powerful than the Xbox One X. Sony WILL NOT concede the arms race that quickly.
And yes, backwards compatibility IS A MUST for PS4/PS4 Pro games.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Gotta break free from that shitty CPU.
Yautja_Warrior
Member
I mean it would be a way to extend the generation, put PS4 to bed, make the Pro the standard model and allow developers to make exclusive games for it but the thought of having that Jaguar CPU holding games back for another 4-5 years is just horrible.
Plus all the existing PS4 owners would feel a cheated then too, so highly doubt that will happen, plus newer / better hardware is a much better option going forward for 4k gaming.
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
They don't have a choice, there are too many games in the pipeline for PS4 that will take years before they're even on shelves. 2020 at the earliest.
Jaguar CPU is this generations bottleneck. We need a new baseline.
Fess
Member
New toys is definitely fun
But I'm a console gamer at heart, I switched to PC 4 years ago, so I still need the consoles for the comfy couch gaming I'm so used to. And I have the PC too far away for a smooth comfy couch experience through the PC, I use Steam Link sometimes but I'd rather play natively if I can.
Definitive versions for couch gaming is definitely a draw for me. That's why I went with PS4 as the main console until XB1X. It's nice to know you can't get the games you love in a better state.
Then I want 4K. I have a triple screen setup for the PC so 4K is simply out of reach for me. XB1X would give me 4K both for games and movies.
Play Anywhere is actually awesome for me since I can choose where to play the game and the save file is there no matter if I sit in the living room or at the PC desk. I can do that already but XB1X will make the power gap less noticeable.
It's really just perfectly timed. 4K upgrade for the living room. Still not able to get 4K on the PC. And I want something new.
I wouldn't object to a couple of experiments or Pro-focussed VR titles before the PS5, or maybe after launch if the Pro becomes the new baseline model for PS, but generally no I want a new box in 2019/early 2020.
Fredrik - thanks for the reply! Totally get the comfy couch benefits!
bitbydeath
Member
No, but not all PS4 games are 1080P so a PS3 Pro would probably be equivalent in hitting 1080p as the PS4 Pro currently hits 4K.
I don't see Pachter's prediction being correct. I'm not an under the hood and knows what's going on inside a console person by any means, but a half step up from a PS4 Pro wouldn't be much stronger than a X1X would it. I mean obviously if they went better CPU it would be but if Sony wants a good price point they are gonna be in the 8 maybe 10TF in the GPU. I would think Sony would want to half step the X1X at least rather than the PS4 Pro, but I don't know how doable that is at the good price point.
yeah but 2 or 3 years with Pro-only games is fine,
PS5 should happen no earlier than 2020, in my opinion.
In 2019 I am nowhere near done with the software the PS4 has to offer and I don't think anyone in this thread will be.
a generation of ~6 years is perfectly fine. not 4 not 10,
6 years
You said it would be a half step because the resolution is going to stay at 4K & that every other generation had a resolution bump.
PS3 & Xbox 360 had some 1080p games just like PS4 Pro have some 4K games. Seems to me that you're just making up a rule & trying to make it fit.
Fess
Member
No prob!
In my opinion, no matter how you do it you won't get the same comfy couch experience through a PC, so even though my love for PC gaming only strengthens as time goes on I still think I'll always want consoles too.
Playing Forza Horizon 3 on PC at 60+ fps on three screens and a steering wheel is about as cool as gaming can can get imo, I'll probably never touch a racing game on console (unless I'm forced to) because of this.
But!
Sometimes you just want to slouche in a couch and lazily play some mindless action game.
PC gaming doesn't have to and shouldn't have to make consoles obsolete, those who say that or say that consoles isn't needed if there are no exclusives simply don't understand the draw of each platform.
However, I do think that consoles are dangerously close to PCs techwise so that they always just get downports from PC. Scale some graphics back and run it at 30fps. Done! I don't like this. While Cell was awful for devs who wanted this type of easy porting it was definitely capable in the right hands. Naughty Dog's PS3 games still impress me more than many current gen games. I want some of those Crazy Ken ideas back.
Shin
Banned
Pachter tends to give his opinion on questions asked, just like everyone would.
When MS unveiled XBOX at E3 his remarks regarding the system were spot on (you can watch it on YouTube with Geoff).
The 240FPS thing isn't that crazy when you look at XBOX increasing FPS of older titles to 60/90 from 30FPS.
Given that Ryzen will probably used you could see similar boosts in older PS4 titles, so there's that.
Will PS5 games run at 240FPS though, no not a chance, as it stands Ryzen is doing well but the category that's of interest to us - gaming is where it falls short in comparison to Intel.
On top of that they'll probably use a Mobile version of that CPU, which doesn't bode too well for performance but it's what it is.
If PS5 ends up being 8-12TF then yes it will look like a half step if you're looking at the mid-gen refreshes, if those didn't exist then there would probably be a bigger wow factor.
When MS unveiled XBOX at E3 his remarks regarding the system were spot on (you can watch it on YouTube with Geoff).
The 240FPS thing isn't that crazy when you look at XBOX increasing FPS of older titles to 60/90 from 30FPS.
Given that Ryzen will probably used you could see similar boosts in older PS4 titles, so there's that.
Will PS5 games run at 240FPS though, no not a chance, as it stands Ryzen is doing well but the category that's of interest to us - gaming is where it falls short in comparison to Intel.
On top of that they'll probably use a Mobile version of that CPU, which doesn't bode too well for performance but it's what it is.
If PS5 ends up being 8-12TF then yes it will look like a half step if you're looking at the mid-gen refreshes, if those didn't exist then there would probably be a bigger wow factor.
Okami Haundo
Member
Realistically, it makes sense that a PS5 would be a "half-step" from the PS4 Pro. I don't see how we could get a full "generational" leap in capability from the Pro to PS5 within the next few years at a reasonable price.
It'll be interesting to see how things play out when Sony and Microsoft end up playing leap-frog with "the most powerful console".
It'll be interesting to see how things play out when Sony and Microsoft end up playing leap-frog with "the most powerful console".
Yautja_Warrior
Member
Well like most generations, support normally carries on for a few years after the new system is out anyway and you don't have to buy one on launch day. They won't wait just because some people haven't finished playing PS4 games.
The Last of Us and GT6 came out just before PS4 came out and while I did get PS4 day 1, I still played my PS3, while I finished off some games.