Hope it is more than a half step but certainly see late 2019 release. Marketing would just be too perfect. Celebrating 25 years of Playstation with the launch of the PS5. Hopefully available in an epic Anniversary gray edition. The cherry on top would be BC with all previous gens. If the later happened I would easily pay a premium for it.
Pachter: PS5 to be a half step, release in 2019 with PS4 BC
- Thread starter bitbydeath
- Start date
10x the original PS4 would be 18.4 tflops. That ain't happening. 12tf seems like a possible number depending on how much of a gain 7nm brings to the table. I think it's likely the max we could see if it launches in 2019.
CarbonFire
Member
2020 makes the most sense when looking at the roadmaps for AMD and the transistor sizes available in the next few years. 2019 would be really pushing it, and they'd probably have to rely on the current 16/14nm processes to make the PS5, which would make cooling a much harder challenge.
Norse
Member
The Greek Freak
Member
I have a 4k tv but the only way to get me to buy a halfstep would be to 100 percent mandate 60 fps. Games at 60 just look and more importantly play so much better.
60fps will never be mandated, no matter how powerful each generation gets.
KillerMan91
Member
I don't see how this is controversial statement? it will be half step from PS4 Pro but full step from base PS4. Just like if PS3 had had Pro version last gen PS4 would had been half step from that but full step from base PS3.
Colbert
Banned
I agree. Especially if they want to have a better CPU this time. If they would chose Zen architecture those cores are much larger than Jaguar core regarding die space. Then add the die space for a GPU that achieves 8TF or more and you land with a much larger SOC than the Xbox One X actually is (on the same node process). Even with a node process of 7nm I am not sure if they can keep the SOC at the same size. If I would to estimate the release of a brand new Playstation console I would say 2020 or even later.
Whats wild is its even in the OP that this is what he was talking about....
Some ppl are getting confused by the mid gen refreshes.
New toys is definitely fun
But I'm a console gamer at heart, I switched to PC 4 years ago, so I still need the consoles for the comfy couch gaming I'm so used to. And I have the PC too far away for a smooth comfy couch experience through the PC, I use Steam Link sometimes but I'd rather play natively if I can.
Definitive versions for couch gaming is definitely a draw for me. That's why I went with PS4 as the main console until XB1X. It's nice to know you can't get the games you love in a better state.
Then I want 4K. I have a triple screen setup for the PC so 4K is simply out of reach for me. XB1X would give me 4K both for games and movies.
Play Anywhere is actually awesome for me since I can choose where to play the game and the save file is there no matter if I sit in the living room or at the PC desk. I can do that already but XB1X will make the power gap less noticeable.
It's really just perfectly timed. 4K upgrade for the living room. Still not able to get 4K on the PC. And I want something new.
Follow up question - why not ps pro? If you already have a library built up why switch platforms? I get X1X will be more powerful but pro will drive a 4K TV nicely
Trogdor1123
Member
Sure, I wasn't meaning exactly 10x, just a sizable increase. I'd be pleased as punch with 12tf
Lagspike_exe
Member
It exists and it's called Quad 1080 Ti, although it's not officially supported.
4K@240FPS is meaningless anyway, PS4 Pro could pull off that with huge graphical sacrifices.
If we're talking current gen games, than you need Quad 1080 Ti. That's an unoptimized solution, but you're looking at at least 35 TFLOPs to pull that off and you would need a very strong CPU.
Completely unrelated to whatever else he says, it makes sense to expect PS5 to be faster, but the jump wont be as big as from previous generations. Simply because Moores Law is coming to an end/slowing down. There was a time when a new generations of GPUs nearly doubled performance because huge jumps were achieved with major steps in process technology and new architectures. Thats not happening right now an none of the big players will lower their margains by simply going for bigger chips.
thesuperfunk
Member
I'd be quite happy to wait until 2020 for a more powerful machine.
Fess
Member
I've been close to jump in so many times but always ended up waiting a bit more, the reports about odd performance situations where launch PS4 ran certain games better and noise talk with differences between units etc made me cautious.
Then we had the Scorpio paper launch at DF and Pro just didn't seem as interesting anymore.
And now we have this and other similar threads popping up talking about PS5 which makes a Pro purchase even less interesting right now.
I think Sony should've waited another 2 years and launched PS5 in 2018 instead. Pro wasn't really neccessary and just seems rushed with the almost 4K performance and no UHD playback. Sony was already in a huge lead and could've easily waited for MS to show their hand before launching another box.
dragonfart28
Banned
PS5 should be a full step above PS4 Pro.
Foldedpencil
Banned
Patcher admits that he is not very tech savvy. But I do hope they prioritize frame rate over resolution.
katsubento
Member
Because GAF.
Theonik
Member
It's also what Sony claimed would be needed for proper thicc 4K iirc. Well 8TF but you know. I'd expect a PS5 to have an updated CPU and at least an 8TF GPU which isn't that significantly more than XBO X but the technology will be better in other ways and well, if it hits in 2020 and they are targeting further improvement they should look at getting 10TF+ in there.
Also exponents are fun. An 8TF GPU is about 4X PS4 and what you'd normally need for 4K PS4 games, and about 2x what you get on the Pro, of which the XBO X is about 43% more powerful but an 8TF machine is only 33% more despite the gap being roughly the same! Also whether you need that extra oomph for 4K consider many XBO X games can't run in native 4K but choose half that res with enhancements taking the remaining gap it sounds ambitious.
Shin
Banned
10-12TF in 2020 wouldn't be impressive at all, desktop GPU's will be well over 20TF by then.
I mean hell Volta launches Q1 2018 and that's 15TF on 14nm, yeah sure can't compare but consoles being 2x+ behind graphical power isn't impressive to me.
On top of that AMD's Teraflops ain't the same as nVidia so you'd need something like 15TF to match a GTX 1080Ti (which would then be 3-4 years old card).
Not that worried about the GPU side of things, I'd just like to see a beefy CPU to make up for this generation's shortcomings, they can fix the GPU with PS5P.
I mean hell Volta launches Q1 2018 and that's 15TF on 14nm, yeah sure can't compare but consoles being 2x+ behind graphical power isn't impressive to me.
On top of that AMD's Teraflops ain't the same as nVidia so you'd need something like 15TF to match a GTX 1080Ti (which would then be 3-4 years old card).
Not that worried about the GPU side of things, I'd just like to see a beefy CPU to make up for this generation's shortcomings, they can fix the GPU with PS5P.
Given that the they who decide what to prioritize are the developers, theres not much chance priorities will change. The console doesnt emphasize 30fps or 60fps as evidenced by the fact that we have both frame rates in use today in different games.
Yes, someone will trot out the its Jaguars fault! Weak CPU! argument, but its a silly one. The true determining factor for frame rates in console games are always what trade-offs developers are willing to make, as all systems have finite capabilities. The CPU in consoles will always be less capable than whats available on PCs for cost and power consumption reasons, so PC ports will always be able to run the same designs at higher frame rates.
That doesnt mean I dont want a substantially better CPU in the PS5! Just that I expect it to be used for more sophisticated AI, physical simulations, and so forth. Im also on record holding out hope for some real wins from Variable Frame Rate solution. Games that generally run 40-45fps with dips down to 30 would be great IMHO.
Volta is Nvidia architecture, and their flops are different from AMD.
AMD's next single card high tier will be 11tflops, stronger than their current strongest card in fury X but not close to what your saying.
If we're talking a GPU generation or two and a process node in 7nm, that allows for a GPU around 10tflops to be scaled down in PSPro like enclosure via miniature APU without the need for vapor chamber cooling. That APU would have to have next generation memory and a Zen CPU in a heat and budget conscious balance as well, it can't just be about GPU power.
Shin
Banned
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
1. A half step over the PS4 Pro is a FULL step pass the PS4. So he's wrong already.
2. Why don't people understand that frame rates have NOTHING to do with generation differences?
3. If it comes out in 2019 then there's no way it can be a half step.
Lol what? I hope he is kidding. I don't want a next gen thats 0.5 as step. Are they kidding? Please wait another 4 years. I'm not buying an ps4pro+ in 2 years as next gen. So I'm assuming it's fake news.
Maybe it's time to stop forcing power and releasing more quality aaa games, because its getting worsed each gen.
Maybe it's time to stop forcing power and releasing more quality aaa games, because its getting worsed each gen.
Fess
Member
It would be impressive for $500 for the whole system. PCs will always have a huge power gap to consoles as long as the same tech is used unless console prices go up. A 1080ti alone is $800, add a motherboard, decent CPU, 16GB RAM, UHD drive, PSU, clever cooling and a tight box in great design with a controller included and $500 in 3 years would be amazing.
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
So essentially, just another day on NeoGaf.
The OP's thread title doesn't help at all either.
Krusenstern
Banned
I think we should backlist everything that comes from this guy and un-blacklist dualshockers instead.
Mikey Jr.
Member
How can computers run any game in a trillion hardware combinations, but PS5 can't run BC with a single combination? Just wondering why everyone is saying PS5 won't have BC.
An honest question.
I think most folks on GAF do expect PS5 to have PS4 BC. I know I certainly do, and as I said earlier in this thread, I believe it's an absolutely essential feature this time around. I believe the reason most folks here are saying "welp, there goes PS4 BC with PS5" is because they're poking fun at Patchter who, uh , has been known to be wrong on occasion.
anothertech
Member
Ah. But you haven't been to the future like I have.
There is nearly three years to holiday 2019. 2full generations of gpu hardware may put us further than anyone realizes! TFs and 8k incoming! Just wait and see
Colbert
Banned
PCs operating systems are built to deal with all sorts of different hardware components provided by a hw abstraction layer and drivers. Though those layer(s) take some of your performance and effciency from the games you are running on those systems.
Consoles instead are fixed hardware platforms. The advantage: You can get most of the existing hardware by talking directly to the hardware or via a very simple driver to maximize the performance in games. Even you use the same general architecture in your next console some components may have changed like a CPU if you switch from Jaguar to Ryzen. It is not a given that a Ryzen driver will work with the same behaviour like the Jaguar driver layer in your old console, therefore BC cannot be ensured unless you implement some sort of BC layer into your system software (firmware). This simple example is just a glimpse why BC is not as easy as it seems even you stay for example with the x86/a64 architecture.
Providing such legacy support is matter of cost and effort and it is a business decision to implement it or not.
About the post you quote, it's definitively the idea that Pacther is always 100% wrong, so that rules BC out
It would be strange for PS5 to not have BC, but Pachter being right would be stranger
Colbert
Banned
Pachter as someone who is an analyst but knowing not very much about the technology behind a console I would say NO, but his advantage may be to have better sources of information than many of us have. You can never say what of his statements is derived from knowing or just guessing.
Shin
Banned
My point wasn't to downplay such a figure, it was more along the lines of the following.
At the moment the gap between a high-end GPU and XBOX is 5TF, if the gap doesn't widen then 15TF would be realistic.
Keep in mind that you'll have 40%+ power boost from 14>7nm switch alone, 60%+ power reduction and 30%+ die cost savings (GlobalFoundries figures and that's without EUV I believe).
In that regard 10-12TF would seem on the low side all things considered, personally I'd be happy with 12TF but it's not unthinkable that we might see something stronger.
Theonik
Member
Well you need to consider that these systems need to fit a CPU and GPU on a much smaller power envelope than a PC and also need to hit a consumer friendly pricepoint. Will they be impressive compared to high-end PCs? Well no. But for most people they still will considering most people get value hardware and the games will be completely new as well taking advantage of the new hardware in ways last-gen PCs wouldn't necessarily have had before that point. The weak CPUs we've had on consoles to this point were a combination of compromising CPU for GPU power and part availability. Ryzen is still not really in a state you could use in an APU but derivative APUs will be available in 2020. You could maybe get a 6-10 core variant on 10nm FF+ in 2020 and a good GPU on a die.
Shin
Banned
This is very much true and they can probably retain a similar sized box while boosting the components.
After all a big part of die shrinks is to keep cost down while cramming more onto the die while keeping TDP in check.
10-12TF by 2020 might be low-end in PC space by then, that's what I meant that we could see something beefier.
Not to mention the gains from new architectures, Navi+, Zen3 (side note: GDDR6 is larger than GDDR5 psychical size).
Ryzen/Vega APU are due next year if AMD doesn't fall behind schedule... :S
CyberPunked
Member
I don't understand how this would be a bad thing. A new console every few years would be a much better model for the consumer if correct backwards compatibility is in place.
Fair enough, then. I suppose BC isn't such a sure thing after all. If Sony decides to bring out a new Console every few years though, and decides not to implement BC with them, I'll make a decision as a consumer not to buy them any longer.
The Greek Freak
Member
You're not wrong, but it's the only thing I can even think of that would make a half step console be even moderately appealing.
geordiemp
Member
How many PC games on I5 / i7 run at 30 FPS when you have a 1080i class GPU...(not GPU limited) .?
Its very quiet over here ,,,,= NONE.
It is the jaguars fault.
Theonik
Member
Both the XBO X and PS4P basically use an RX480 in varying clock configurations and some other customisations to hit 4.2 and 6TF respectively at 16FF+ working from there, one can assume they can at least double that in a few years in a similar form-factor given die shrinks but I expect progress to slow down even further than it already is as yields are going down and more and more production capacity is taken by phones.
It's one of the reasons Ryzen was delayed so much, only Intel is in the position were they can respond to the market so rapidly to make something like that work. Ryzen APUs missed this year and for good reason, next year we'll get some but they will probably not be better than what you find on XBO X, in large part because Ryzen takes a lot more power than the Jaguar cores. By 2020 the tech will be refined somewhat but not to the point where you can have your cake and eat it to per se.
That's because the games are optimised with that Jaguar in mind and when you feed it to a desktop i5 it shreds it.
Next-gen games will be a different story though. Also what system has anything near a 1080Ti on a console LOL
neoism
Member
Yep
Fuck that
I'm gud til 2019 at least and ps4 bc is awesome but doubt it
I want a new console not just a little upgrade
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