Pachter: PS5 to be a half step, release in 2019 with PS4 BC

I'm pretty sure 60fps will never be a focus, people just don't care enough and it's not easy to market.
I think there's light at the end of this tunnel though. 4ktvs with HDMI 2.1 will be the norm by then. It's accepts 4k 120fps inputs, it's real beneficial to make a console with that target in mind because of VR needs for high resolution and framrates (PSVR2). Also consumers generally want consoles that fully utilizes there TV sets. I'm not saying expect 4k 120fps AAA games, but I am saying we can look forward to more 60fps games and some 120fps games from Indies.
 
You do realize the gpu isn't the only component using system ram correct? It's shared between CPU and gpu. 16gb minus 4gb for the OS leaves 12gb. They will have a much better CPU for next gen, also next gen game engines will be more demanding, say it uses 4Gb. That leaves just 8GB for the GPU for NEXT GEN game engines/console that will be in full swing in 2024+. It's not enough, next gen needs minimum 32GB, we haven't even talked about bandwidth.
No it doesn't.
 
You do realize the gpu isn't the only component using system ram correct? It's shared between CPU and gpu. 16gb minus 4gb for the OS leaves 12gb. They will have a much better CPU for next gen, also next gen game engines will be more demanding, say it uses 4Gb. That leaves just 8GB for the GPU for NEXT GEN game engines/console that will be in full swing in 2024+. It's not enough, next gen needs minimum 32GB, we haven't even talked about bandwidth.

Nobody needs 32GB any time soon.
 
Next gen does need 32 GB. That's a modest 4X leap from last gen.

Cerny has already stated you need a meaningful increase in RAM and bandwidth for a next gen upgrade.
 
4X isn't giant, but it is meaningful. Anything less wouldn't seem like a leap.

This gen we got 16X.

I think 32 GB is a realistic target, you'll need it for 4k textures
 
No it doesn't.

Need is a strong word and I wouldn't say we need that much either.
It depends what PlayStation will do with 8K since that's a thing or will be one within PS5's generation.
Things would be looking rather grim if it's going to be 16Gb, 24Gb would be more than sufficient I think.

You two keep saying "need." It's not needed, because it's not what we're getting.

Shiiiiiit I'm already depressed if it's 16 freakin' Gb.
Memory is what I'm most curious about ATM, the type, bandwidth and amount.
The other parts you can pretty much guess if they are going with AMD.
 
Agree to disagree then.

Why do you even think it's needed. I mean, you can take a look at the future *now* and you will not find many systems with such a huge amount of ram. I mean, you can't have enough ram but it's definitely not needed.
 
Fine, is desired a better word?

Companies don't design their consoles not around what people on forums think would be needed for a "leap" but what they think is needed.
Unless you either build tech or you build high performance code for consoles, there is nothing that justifies desires for tech.
 
You two keep saying "need." It's not needed, because it's not what we're getting.

I know you're an insider, but I doubt you have any real insight into PS5's specs at this point.

My speculation is based on Mark Cerny's own statements - why are you disagreeing with him?

I understand being reluctant to expect a mid gen refresh to have all sorts of new bells and whistles, but this is what should be expected of a new gen, so why the timid expectations?
 
I know you're an insider, but I doubt you have any real insight into PS5's specs at this point.

My speculation is based on Mark Cerny's own statements - why are you disagreeing with him?

I understand being reluctant to expect a mid gen refresh to have all sorts of new bells and whistles, but this is what should be expected of a new gen, so why the timid expectations?

Bandwidth triumphs amount of memory I'd reckon 16Gb would do the job, 12 would be a sad state of affairs and equal to a current console.
Using these benchmarks it would be sufficient for 8K even, though games as is aren't really build to make full use of high-end GPU's so shit can change.
http://www.tweaktown.com/tweakipedia/90/much-vram-need-1080p-1440p-4k-aa-enabled/index.html

Side note: Shadow of Mordor seems to use most VRAM, was looking around the other day how much memory games eat at 4K.
 
I am hopeful that PS5 era games double down on checkerboard rendering. The PS4 implementation in Horizon and the PC implementation in Watchdogs 2 is really a good proof in concept. The difference in the above two games in CB4k vs native 4k is so negligible in my eyes... and I am normally really anal and scrutinize shit like this. Pretty sure DF said the performance increase is 35-40% when using CB in Watchdogs 2. I know on my PC for WD2, I tend to get 40-44 FPS at native 4k and 60+ FPS at CB4k. This is a huge deal because I'd rather the next gen powerup go towards higher FPS (lol who the fuck am I kidding), or making games prettier/more dense -- rather than render a native 4k image.
 
Absolutely. You are free to desire whatever you want, and more RAM is always better. But that much isn't needed, and shouldn't be expected.

Disagree there for a next gen console. If it's ram limited then it needs/desires some serious bandwidth.
 
Bandwidth triumphs amount of memory I'd reckon 16Gb would do the job, 12 would be a sad state of affairs and equal to a current console.
Using these benchmarks it would be sufficient for 8K even, though games as is aren't really build to make full use of high-end GPU's so shit can change.
http://www.tweaktown.com/tweakipedia/90/much-vram-need-1080p-1440p-4k-aa-enabled/index.html

Side note: Shadow of Mordor seems to use most VRAM, was looking around the other day how much memory games eat at 4K.

You think 8k will be a thing for ps5? 😂
 
There's no way that PS5 needs 32 GB of memory. The most likely option is 12 GB or 16 GB that what most modern systems use today. Also, keep in mind that it most likely going to have GDDR5X/GDDR6 memory this time.

Remember when it was crazy to think that PS4 could have 8GB of GDDR4?
That was different tho. 8 GB to 32 GB is a huge leap compared to 4 GB to 8 GB.
 
You think 8k will be a thing for ps5? ��

Some games could yes, as I said 8K TV's are hitting the market this year, with PS5 supposedly lasting till 2030+ or whatever it will be caught in the 8K "madness".
Wouldn't be surprised if PlayStation tries to make a push for it like they always do with everything.
Simple games, indies perhaps.
 
The PS3 and to a lesser extent the 360 were the last times manufacturers have really released hardware at a loss. They might not aim to profit from the hardware, but they won't be bleeding money from it either. The real problem console makers face right now is inflation. As time has gone on the pricing of systems has moved up only marginally but inflation has skyrocketed by comparison. That's even worse in software. The underlying problem is that consoles aren't marked up with inflation or cost but with what the market can bare. And well consumer incomes have stagnated and they are unwilling to fork over extra money for expensive systems. So manufacturers need to cut their costs to compensate.

I think this is a good point when talking about software -- console games were a lot more expensive in the early 90's. The reason publishers are doing so much DLC and season passes and microtransactions is because $60 in 2017 money really isn't enough for a AAA game. Maybe part of that is just the sheer number of games being made today.

I'm not so sure on hardware though. According to this chart comparing the prices of past consoles in 2016 dollars, most successful game consoles have launched at around $300 or $400 in today's money. Some flirted with $450 but that seems to be the limit. You're right about people's incomes stagnating though.

Another factor to consider though is the overall stagnation of the console audience. Console publishers are focusing more and more on the hardcore gamer who pre-orders special editions and buys season passes. That and the more mainstream GTA/COD/Madden/FIFA gamer. I haven't seen much attempt to expand beyond that. Since around 2008 most of the expansion in video games has been in PC and mobile. One issue in this is how consoles aren't expanding all that much in emerging markets like South America, continental Asia, and Eastern Europe. Sony seems to be trying to make inroads into Korea, China, and parts of Southeast Asia, but I think those places are mostly PC and mobile gaming. Consoles may have missed their chance in these markets.
 
Some games could yes, as I said 8K TV's are hitting the market this year, with PS5 supposedly lasting till 2030+ or whatever it will be caught in the 8K "madness".
Wouldn't be surprised if PlayStation tries to make a push for it like they always do with everything.
Simple games, indies perhaps.
Like PS5 PRO....
 
How would Gaf feel about a PS4 Pro update with Jaguar & Zen in a big little configuration & a higher clock rate for the 36CUs with a focus on higher frame rates?

same resolutions as the old PS4 Pro games but pushing 30fps games to 60fps.

Yuck, no thanks. Enough with the boosted PS4s, the next one needs to be a PS5.

Let's be honest, this was rather luck then well planned in the end. Also at that time 8 GB was nothing special on PC. 32 GB won't be standard in 2020 even on PC.

8GB of GDDR5 certainly was.
 
There's no way that PS5 needs 32 GB of memory. The most likely option is 12 GB or 16 GB that what most modern systems use today. Also, keep in mind that it most likely going to have GDDR5X/GDDR6 memory this time.


That was different tho. 8 GB to 32 GB is a huge leap compared to 4 GB to 8 GB.


Why are you talking about 4GB to 8GB when it was 512MB to 8GB?
 
There's no way that PS5 needs 32 GB of memory. The most likely option is 12 GB or 16 GB that what most modern systems use today. Also, keep in mind that it most likely going to have GDDR5X/GDDR6 memory this time.


That was different tho. 8 GB to 32 GB is a huge leap compared to 4 GB to 8 GB.
But that's just it, we're not talking about today, next gen is literally about the next decade.
 
Same as XOX ? not happening, heck even 16GB would be a big disappointment.
Why would 16GB be a disappointment? 2x the PS4 RAM of 8GB

Most PC have 8GB RAM as that's enough for gaming (i guess GPU cards includes some RAM too) 16GB is definitely enough
 
Same as XOX ? not happening, heck even 16GB would be a big disappointment.

It already seems like it will be if what Matt said is correct, though he's not saying the amount because it's probably not set in stone yet.
12-16Gb, 3.1Ghz, 8.6TF....lol might as well call it PS4K (if the specs are close to that I'll wait for PS5 Pro).
 
Ah thanks. Thinking about it, its not surprising with how much GDDR5 they put in at the time. It was a great launch.
It already seems like it will be if what Matt said is correct, though he's not saying the amount because it's probably not set in stone yet.
12-16Gb, 3.1Ghz, 8.6TF....lol might as well call it PS4K (if the specs are close to that I'll wait for PS5 Pro).
I don't get how that's disappointing? With the mid range consoles, we shouldn't be looking at crazy jumps because we have an upgraded version.

A console of those specs would produce games well above and beyond what we have.
 
Why would 16GB be a disappointment? 2x the PS4 RAM of 8GB

Most PC have 8GB RAM as that's enough for gaming (i guess GPU cards includes some RAM too) 16GB is definitely enough

Probably because PS3 -> PS4 was a 16x leap in memory. Nobody expects that again, of course, but only a 2x increase would perhaps feel a bit low.
 
It already seems like it will be if what Matt said is correct, though he's not saying the amount because it's probably not set in stone yet.
12-16Gb, 3.1Ghz, 8.6TF....lol might as well call it PS4K (if the specs are close to that I'll wait for PS5 Pro).
Seriously lol.
 
Ah thanks. Thinking about it, its not surprising with how much GDDR5 they put in at the time. It was a great launch.

I don't get how that's disappointing? With the mid range consoles, we shouldn't be looking at crazy jumps because we have an upgraded version.

A console of those specs would produce games well above and beyond what we have.

To me it would, but the world doesn't evolve around me, I'm sure others will be happy with it.
And they could definitely keep the desired price point of $399 with similar specifications.
Personally I'm hoping for 24Gb, a CPU that runs at least at 3.5Ghz and a 12TF+ GPU, these are mobile parts after all.
 
Why would 16GB be a disappointment? 2x the PS4 RAM of 8GB

Most PC have 8GB RAM as that's enough for gaming (i guess GPU cards includes some RAM too) 16GB is definitely enough

PS3 to PS4 was 16x. I'm not expecting such leap anymore, but only 2x ? eh.

12-16Gb, 3.1Ghz, 8.6TF....lol might as well call it PS4K (if the specs are close to that I'll wait for PS5 Pro).

IKR ? lol
 
Doesn't really matter if they used to be able to multiply ram by 16x, The highest price point the PS5 could possibly get away with is $499, and judging by the reaction of the Scorpio, they'll likely go below that.
 
It already seems like it will be if what Matt said is correct, though he's not saying the amount because it's probably not set in stone yet.
12-16Gb, 3.1Ghz, 8.6TF....lol might as well call it PS4K (if the specs are close to that I'll wait for PS5 Pro).

Um, things like threads per core and IPC are a thing in CPUs, not just clock speeds. Also, not all teraflops are created equal in GPUs. Power per performance is a thing.
 
Specs aside though there's a lot they can learn from MS to improve user experience.
For all their shortcomings Xbox has a handful of features that PlayStation does not, which I would like to see on PS5.
Here's a list of things people would like to see implemented or changed on PSN or in a PS5 (gathered from topics).


  • Backwards compatibility with PS1 (money to be made here through PSN sales)
  • Backwards compatibility with PS2 (money to be made here through PSN sales)
  • Backwards compatibility with PS4 (good way to lock players your eco-system)
  • LFG feature (the way Microsoft implemented it on Xbox, it's not like Communities on PS)
  • Hardware handling rendering of older titles to native 4K and 60FPS where applicable
  • PSN ID change (truncate older ID's that aren't used, 5 years of no activity -> free up ID)
  • Date of birth change (every modern system has this enabled by default yet not on PSN)
  • System wide super sampling / downsampling for those that are still on a 1080p TV
  • Emphasis on CPU, learn from your mistake with PS4 and PS4 Pro, make it a priority
  • Ultra High Definition drive, along with 4K TV's goes 4K movies (Sony sells those)
  • Trophies background syncing - still not available in 2017
  • PSN download speeds are still slow and not using a users max bandwidth, fix it
  • Cross Platform - you're on the outs and look like the bad guy, everyone else is doing it
  • Digital Refunds - still not a thing outside of EU and that's because of the law, learn from Steam
  • Voice chat overlay - that you can move around to see who's talking (game UI differs in the end)
  • Psychical/Digital game ID - doesn't match have to re-download the full game because of it

Um, things like threads per core and IPC are a thing in CPUs, not just clock speeds. Also, not all teraflops are created equal in GPUs. Power per performance is a thing.
I'm aware, but thanks.
 
People are thinking 8k now? I doubt it.. Sony released a 4k TV before the PS4 came out so the existence of them won't mean a whole lot.
Contender for a pro edition I suppose.
 
It already seems like it will be if what Matt said is correct, though he's not saying the amount because it's probably not set in stone yet.
12-16Gb, 3.1Ghz, 8.6TF....lol might as well call it PS4K (if the specs are close to that I'll wait for PS5 Pro).
Yeah that's way too small jump for PS5. But I don't think that's happening, I'm thinking we'll get another 2TF every year, giving us roughly 10TF in 2019 if we're using PS4 Pro as the start. Then a new PS every 3 year and a new Xbox every 4 year.

2016, PS4 Pro, 4TF
2017, XB1X, 6TF
2019, PS5, 10TF
2021, XB2, 14TF
2022, PS5 Pro, 16TF

Something like that.
So, have fun playing on PS4 Pro until 2022 I guess ;P
 
People are thinking 8k now? I doubt it.. Sony released a 4k TV before the PS4 came out so the existence of them won't mean a whole lot.
Contender for a pro edition I suppose.

Yeah most likely, like they did with PS4 Pro to cater that market.
Which is why we're discussing the memory and the amount it would need to drive 8K.
They could always add more memory to a Pro version but that doesn't seem practical.

So, have fun playing on PS3 until 2022 I guess ;P
FTFY, don't have a PS4 :P , I have games for it but not the console itself I'm that weird lol
 
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