Yautja_Warrior
Member
Sure graphics will not be quite as good as PC but will still look great but we are talking about stronger CPU's to allow 60fps on more games.
Pachter: PS5 to be a half step, release in 2019 with PS4 BC
- Thread starter bitbydeath
- Start date
Sure graphics will not be quite as good as PC but will still look great but we are talking about stronger CPU's to allow 60fps on more games.
Frame rate is a choice but it's a choice made depending on the hardware that the game is being made for.
Like if a game is being made for the Wii or Wii U the dev can easily choose 60fps because the graphics isn't going to be compared to the PC or other consoles but games that are made for PS4 , Xbox One & PC devs will most likely make a choice to go with 30fps for the consoles to keep the graphics close with the graphics that's being shown on PC. also 60fps is more important on PC & Wii/Wii U because of the Mouse & motion controls, If PSVR was standard for PS4 60fps would be the norm because devs would have a reason to make that choice.
Like if a game is being made for the Wii or Wii U the dev can easily choose 60fps because the graphics isn't going to be compared to the PC or other consoles but games that are made for PS4 , Xbox One & PC devs will most likely make a choice to go with 30fps for the consoles to keep the graphics close with the graphics that's being shown on PC. also 60fps is more important on PC & Wii/Wii U because of the Mouse & motion controls, If PSVR was standard for PS4 60fps would be the norm because devs would have a reason to make that choice.
I think a lot of people are also overlooking how many more 60fps games we have this gen than last and how much more stable the games that target 30fps are. Performance has improved considerably across the board. Even though some games will still target 30fps, more capable hardware will allow more developers the freedom to choose. Adaptive resolution and resolution reconstruction techniques have also improved quite a bit this gen and will allow devs to more easily keep the GPU budget in check.
I also think that if major studios like Naughty Dog could reliably hit the fidelity of the infamous Uncharted 4 trailer at 60fps, more would opt for higher framerates than would aim for more effects considering how impressive the visuals already are at that stage.
I know that amount seems crazy now, but it wouldn't seem crazy in 2026/27 which is within the expected lifespan of any expected PS5.* Especially as games become more RAM hungry trying to push 4K and possibly 8K textures on a PS5Pro, larger open worlds, increased numbers of unique NPCs/Enemies
*Assuming a 2019/20 Launch and a 6 year lifecycle followed by 2 years of crossgen games.
Yautja_Warrior
Member
Agreed. Not sure why some people seem so against the idea that a better CPU will give developers more choice.
We're not talking about 2026 though, we're talking about 2019
El-Pistolero
Member
I believe people's expectations are skewed because the 6+ TF Scorpio and the 4+ TF Playstation Pro games are simple refinements of their vanilla versions. Gaffers seem to forget that the legacy of the standard consoles (Xbox One and PS4) is what prevents these new iterations from being fully exploited. I am pretty certain that a game built from the grounds up for a 10-12 TF system would melt the eyes...Imagine what ND and Sony SM could produce with a system 8 to 10 times more powerful than the base PS4, while not having to worry about the necessity of getting the title to work on the previous machine...
Fess
Member
I honestly can't see what design goal that would be and why it would be a hardware problem that a game must be 30fps. Physics, A.I, world size, etc, in game development it has always been about simplifying things until the engine can handle it, hopefully in a clever enough way that it won't be noticeable by the gamer.
Cross-platform multiplayer in a game made for PC which is then downported to console is the only situation where I guess a weak hardware could be the main problem for a low framerate. If the devs can't simplify A.I, physics, etc without the gamer noticing a difference between the platforms they may be forced to run the game slower on console to not break the game.
But in those situations they wouldn't make it cross-platform if the framerate was important, they would run multiplayer on PC and console separately and simplify things on console to make it run at 60fps on console too, which in the end yet again is a dev decision rather than a hardware problem.
The truth is that there is always a way to run a game at 60fps no matter what game or genre it is on every single hardware that is able to output new images at 60hz from the display port.
We've had both 60fps and 30fps games on NES/C64/etc and we still have it on Pro and will have it on XBX and PS5 and XB2 etc too. Lets check again in 10 years and I can guaratee that it'll be exactly the same. If we're lucky there will be more 60fps then, but it won't have anything to do with the hardware but rather a general change among devs that 60fps should be the target to aim for.
The reason the PS4 Pro can exist is because of nm shrinks three years since the PS4 launched.
Impossible to launch PS5 and PS5 Pro at the same time.
PS5 is not happening in 2019 unless they choose to call the next PS4 update PS5 for some reason.
Is there something coming in the next 2 years that would move people away from PS4/Xbox One level games? PS4 Pro & Xbox One X will extend this generation beyond the normal life span.
without joking I am 93% sure that it will be an ryzen cpu, likely low clocked again for thermals and power.
The rest 7% are not ryzen since ryzen takes up to much die space and I am sure that a small cpu core has the best ipc/area ratio, where you get diminishing returns with bigger area.
Either 2019 or 2020. Either way it makes no difference whether its 6 years or 7.
Yep.
Regular customers would see clear improvements right now if XB1X could have its own exclusive titles. With a system stronger than that rounded out with a more powerful CPU, its a no brainer
Fess
Member
I may come off a bit blunt, not my intention, english isn't my main language. But you're in the industry, aren't you? Then you know it's all about cheating and cutting corners, hopefully without anyone noticing it, to have a frame ready to be pushed out at the next screen update. If you choose to cut it down to 30fps you'll have one extra frame of time to do stuff you really don't want to cut away. And sometime devs just don't want to cut stuff away. They could, but they don't want to.
Miniature Kaiju
Member
Next gen will see an increase in 60fps titles not only because of more powerful hardware, but because it will be cheapest, from a budgetary perspective, way to improve games graphically in a noticeable fashion. That doesn't mean all games will hit 60, or even a majority, but I'm sure we'll see it trend upwards.
2022/2023 would be too long to wait. The sweet spot is whatever tech is available in 2020/2021. Zen3/7nm+ Gpu is a reasonable expectation.
Shin
Banned
It would require some work but yes it should be possible given that Ryzen is a lot stronger than Jaguar.
It's probably why most think it will be 8C/16T minimum, core for core the rest I'll leave it to someone that have more knowledge.
Head.spawn
Junior Member
This was always my line of thinking (22-23), it would make the biggest splash there. I feel like anything coming out in 2019-20 is going to be labeled "PS4 Pro.5". I have a hard time believing there is a massive difference to warrant a new generation.
Who knows though, maybe they'll have a Bloodborne 2 on Day One to get people moving.
Fess
Member
But if they're going that late they probably end up launching a year before XB2, giving MS the opportunity to do another hype trailer the year before with more power.
I guess that could be great for us gamers though, Sony is great when they're pushed out of their comfort zone.
Shin
Banned
Based on my findings earlier I firmly believe it will launch late 2020.
It took 5 years to research and develop PS4, they got some extra experience and familiarity because of PS4 Pro.
With R&D starting last year that would put us in 2020, 4 years later.
Everything they need will be or should be out by then, biggest issue ATM is Navi if that will be the GPU PS uses.
We're talking 7nm EUV, GDDR6, LCHBM, HBM3, Zen3 think about it for a second how many generations of new shit that is.
One or two years of cross generation and you basically have your 10y PS4 plan which Sony loves so much.
It took 5 years to research and develop PS4, they got some extra experience and familiarity because of PS4 Pro.
With R&D starting last year that would put us in 2020, 4 years later.
Everything they need will be or should be out by then, biggest issue ATM is Navi if that will be the GPU PS uses.
We're talking 7nm EUV, GDDR6, LCHBM, HBM3, Zen3 think about it for a second how many generations of new shit that is.
One or two years of cross generation and you basically have your 10y PS4 plan which Sony loves so much.
That would be ok matched with a $499 price point. $499 would offer significant more performance than a $399 console in 2020.
Shin
Banned
15w is what Mobile Ryzen will be Iirc.
I'm thinking Ryzen 1700 or whatever the new naming scheme will be, lowest of the 7 series because of the amount of cores/threads and its current TDP (65w).
60% power reduction from 14nm to 7nm then on top of that desktop vs. mobile.
MS isn't doing full BC, they only approve specific titles. Its not 100% backwards compatibility with 360 games despite allowing for quite a large amount of the library which is still good
Pachter doesn't know WTF he's talking about. He even admits he doesn't know anything about tech and to him the only thing that differentiates graphics are HD and 4K.
So coming from him, 'half step' means absolutely nothing, and actually, means less than nothing, since he knows jack shit about PS5, when it's coming and what it will be able to do.
The schedule of technology improvements matters, but it's not as important as when sales for the current console start lagging. That's the most important factor for when a new console gets released, and whatever technology is available at the time that they can fit in a $399 box is what they'll choose, regardless of if they can get a better box by waiting a couple more years.
Itll be interesting - assuming many devs still optimise for 30fps.. if ps5 has an 8 core 16 thread ryzen, then an average i5 build isnt going to be able to brute force 60 fps. Might even struggle to lock 30. Of course PC gamers can still throw money at the problem but youll be into much higher core counts
On the positive side itll raise the low water mark. And with luck it might even lower the prices of 8+ core CPUs as demand increases
If ps5 is a half step over ps pro, and ps Pro was a half step over PS4, then ps5 will be 1.25 steps over PS4.
I don't even understand how a thread about a Pachter ass pull quote got so many pages.
It's not even all that bold of a prediction when the OG PS4 will have been out for 6 years in 2019 and the PS4 Pro was released half way inbetween.
Panajev2001a
GAF's Pleasant Genius
That is not unrealistic they may be able to hit those specs before Fall 2019 IMHO
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Yautja_Warrior
Member
Yeah but PS5 won't be a Premium product aimed at just the core gamer, it will be a mass market product with the goal of selling lots of units, something which $499 limits them in sales.
$399 will just sell much better and can still be a good step forward over PS4 Pro / Xbox One X and a massive leap over base PS4 / Xbox One, which all current games are tied too / held back by and that won't be an issue for PS5, as games will be specifically designed for it.
The GPU will likely be around 10 Tflop (maybe more) which absolutely blows the PS4 / Xbox One away and that is still a good step up over Xbox One X aswell. People are already going crazy with Xbox One X's advantage over the Pro with a 1.8 Tflop difference, so a 4 Tflop+ advantage and a better CPU would still be a big step up.
anothertech
Member
Nah. Sony devs has gone in record saying they think last gen was too long.
Holiday 2019 latest, and it's not going to be a 'ps4 upgrade'
Die shrink, new generation of RAM, new CPU upgrades, there will be plenty to push it past the ps4 upgrade mark by end of 2019 at a console price point. Not quite sure what you're on about with the ps4 upgrade thing tbh,
The only thing that is important is that we will get a new base hardware that new games will be designed to take advantage off. How much powerful than Pro it will be, to me, that is not that important. We will get stronger beefier APU and at least 32GB of RAM, and games made for that hardware will look great.
I would limit the expectations of new memory tech though. HBM is expensive, and most likely Sony will again go with 16xGDDR chips. 2GB per chip models will be out in sales next year, so 32GB of almost half a terabyte per sec bandwith will be achievable.
Same goes for local storage. I don't expect miracles and SSD integration.
I would limit the expectations of new memory tech though. HBM is expensive, and most likely Sony will again go with 16xGDDR chips. 2GB per chip models will be out in sales next year, so 32GB of almost half a terabyte per sec bandwith will be achievable.
Same goes for local storage. I don't expect miracles and SSD integration.
Theonik
Member
Again it's quite simple when designing their games developers have consoles as must runs so they do as much as they can on a 33ms frame window for that system. You can't easily scale CPU as you can GPU so it's a hard limit. Increasing resolution and most graphical effects do not affect CPU at all so CPU is a hard barrier of entry. If games were designed for PCs in mind such as Crysis 1 you would see a much different story.
If we get to 8 Ryzen Gen 3 cores on these things I don't think there is much the PC can do. Games don't utilise extra cores well because of the nature of the load not being trivial to parallelise though Intel's CPUs are still considerably faster than Ryzen and as a response Intel is already responding with bringing the higher core-count models they've been withholding from the mainstream out so the playing field might be quite different in 2 years.
8 cores are already becoming mainstream from both Intel and AMD after Ryzen so I reckon you could get a regular i7 in 8 core config by then.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Jup, they only work for the group of enthusiasts. Even by the end of 2019 only ~10% of all PS4 sold since launch will be PS4 Pros, maybe 15% if Sony starts some serious PS4 Pro discounts.
PS5 on the other hand will definitly have exclusive games as purchase drivers. And maybe - maybe - Sony is able to come up with something else than "just" more power in addition, like the underrated streaming / sharing features of PS4.
That is not unrealistic they may be able to hit those specs before Fall 2019 IMHO
Those specs pre-2019, yes, $399, no. As I said, this is a quite optimistic guess; I'd even call it the best-case scenario for a fall 2019 console.
THE:MILKMAN
Member
The biggest issue with 2019 for a 7nm 350+mm2 APU is availability. I just can't see it happening for anything other than smartphone SoCs in that timeframe.
Remember the APUs in consoles will require ramping up to ~1 million chips a month from like August 2019 for a holiday 2019 launch.
This article suggests even smartphone SoCs won't appear in volume until ~early 2019: http://www.androidauthority.com/who-will-be-the-first-manufacturer-to-7nm-757916/
On the other hand I don't see the iteration experiment as a success so am not sure which way Sony are going to go right now..... (I think Kaz Hirai actually said in a interview recently they were deciding which way to go?)
Remember the APUs in consoles will require ramping up to ~1 million chips a month from like August 2019 for a holiday 2019 launch.
This article suggests even smartphone SoCs won't appear in volume until ~early 2019: http://www.androidauthority.com/who-will-be-the-first-manufacturer-to-7nm-757916/
On the other hand I don't see the iteration experiment as a success so am not sure which way Sony are going to go right now..... (I think Kaz Hirai actually said in a interview recently they were deciding which way to go?)
which way to go in what context?
THE:MILKMAN
Member
Sorry...here is the question and the (off topic) answer!
http://asia.nikkei.com/magazine/20170601/Business/Innovation-is-key-to-restoring-Sony-s-shine
Yautja_Warrior
Member
Digital Foundry have just put up a video talking about the possibility of Ryzen in next gen and it would be a great benefit for next gen. Pretty much as I expected it would.
https://youtu.be/LjjRdrVAHCQ
I would trade memory capacity for bandwidth if i was you. if your staying in dreamland, i'd say something like 24GB and 800GB/s of Low cost HBM or GDDR6 would do it
Theonik
Member
I really am not sure what you're talking about there. They are very specifically talking about the potential of using more CPU to improve games not framerates. If anything having stronger console CPUs would mean it would be less likely to run games at 60 on PC.
24GB of GDDR6 on a 384-bit bus at 768GB/s makes a lot of sense! It's not really a dream scenario. By 2020 pretty much every high-end GPU will have at least that and hell even some half-step like the XBO X has 12GB. GDDR6 is coming at significantly higher density. Twice the density at 16Gb iirc.
E: In fact, something like the XBO X has 12 8Gb GDDR5 modules, an identical system built in GDDR6 would have 24. A PS4 built in GDDR6 on the other hand would have 16GB. But I can't see Sony give that benefit to MS.
Giant Panda
Member
When PS4 came out, I remember reading that the 16 RAM chips at 0.512 GB each was the max you could put on an APU without complexity and cost becoming prohibitive. So my question is, are densities expected to double for GDDR6 chips to 2GB each? If so, 32GB is possible.
However HBM works differently if they end up going with that.
Edit: just saw theonik's post above.
However HBM works differently if they end up going with that.
Edit: just saw theonik's post above.
The Hamburglar
Banned
And this right here is why mid gen refreshes are dumb. I want confirmation that it's a one off and Sony won't release a ps5 pro or else I refuse to buy a ps5.
Aizu_Itsuko
Member
PS4 and XB1 are still the baseline for development, not PS4Pro or X1X. That's why they are considered a "half step".